DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY OF SINGAPORE’S MACROECONOMIC FORECASTS

2019 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
YOUNG BIN AHN ◽  
YOICHI TSUCHIYA
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
International Monetary Fund ◽  
International Organizations ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Agencies ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Effective Current ◽  
Directional Accuracy

This study examines the directional accuracy of Singapore’s macroeconomic forecasts by professional forecasters, government agencies (i.e., central bank and Ministry of Trade and Industry, MTI), and international organizations. The results show that government agencies provide the most directionally accurate forecasts, suggesting that the macroeconomic and monetary policies are effective. Current-year forecasts are generally directionally accurate, with disparities among forecasters for next-year forecasts. Regarding GDP growth, the MTI and International Monetary Fund (IMF) provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead, whereas other forecasters provide them for at most three quarters ahead. For consumer price index inflation, except for the IMF, all others provide directionally accurate forecasts up to four quarters ahead.

Why do the national financial and monetary policies not boost the economy?

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (7) ◽  
pp. 1496-1521
Author(s):  
N.I. Kulikov ◽  
M.A. Kulikova ◽  
A.A.S.R. Mobio
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Policy Support ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Government Contracts ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
The Past ◽  
Russian Economy ◽  
Yearly Average ◽  
Analysis And Synthesis ◽  
The Government

Subject. This article assesses the reasons why the economic policy of the Government and Central Bank of Russia does not cause the economic advance. The article tries to find out why the two strategic programmes adopted over the past ten years have not been implemented in most indicators. Objectives. The article aims to analyze the results of financial and monetary policies in Russia over the past ten years, and establish why the Russian economy has been growing within one percent yearly average all these years, and its share in the world economy has not grown, but got reduced even. Methods. For the study, we used the methods of analysis and synthesis. Results. The article proposes certain measures and activities to move to soft financial and monetary policies of the State and corresponding changes in the structure of the Russian economy. This will help ensure six to seven percent GDP growth annually. Conclusions. High loan rates have become the main obstacle to GDP growth in Russia. It is necessary to accept concrete actions and decisions concerning the Bank of Russia key rate, expansion of the functions of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, industrial policy, support of consumer demand, long-term government contracts for the real sector enterprises, etc.

Hungarian economy will face post-election challenges

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Regional Economies ◽  
Budget Deficits ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Low Levels

Subject The next government's economic prospects. Significance If, as is likely, the Fidesz party wins a third term in office in April, it will look to capitalise upon the upturn in GDP growth in 2017. After stronger-than-expected growth acceleration in the fourth quarter, which is likely to have closed Hungary's output gap, Fidesz may favour loose fiscal and monetary policies to support the economy after the election. Impacts The central bank is expected to hold interest rates at historically low levels well into 2019. GDP is likely to grow as fast in 2018 as in 2017, as Hungary consolidates its position as one of the fastest-growing regional economies. If Fidesz keeps fiscal and monetary policies loose for longer than expected next year, larger budget deficits are likely.

The implications of the Boskin Report

1998 ◽  
Vol 165 ◽  
pp. 89-98 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Oulton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Performance ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
True Rate ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Price Quotes

The Boskin Commission has claimed that the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is currently overestimating the true rate of inflation by 1.1 percentage points per annum. This article assesses the evidence for this conclusion and its implications for the measurement of past and future US economic performance. If Boskin is right, US GDP growth in the period 1970 to 1996 has been underestimated by about 0.9 per cent per annum. Some at least of the methodological changes recommended by Boskin will probably be adopted. As a result US GDP growth will appear to rise, eventually by as much as 0.5 per cent per annum, even though no genuine improvement in economic performance has actually occurred. Boskin has implications for the UK too. Recent evidence suggests that use of a formula recommended by Boskin for averaging price quotes together can by itself reduce UK inflation by 0.4 per cent per annum.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Ekonomi Makro Terhadap Indeks Harga Konsumen

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 25-34
Author(s):  
Fazhar Sumantri ◽  
Umi Latifah
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Central Bank ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Significant Relationship ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Index Number ◽  
The Republic

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an index number indicates the price level of commodity and services must be purchase by consumers inone period. The purpose of the research is to analyze macroeconomics impact to CPI on variable Interest Rate of Credit, Money Supply, USD Exchange Rate, and Inflation as variables. Data used in this research was taken from Central Statistics Agency Indonesia and The Central Bank of The Republic of Indonesia. The result from F test shows significant relationship in Interest Rate of Credit, Money Supply, USD Exchange Rate, and Inflation to CPI. Meanwhile t test shows there is no significant relationship between Money Supply and USD Exchange Rate to CPI, while significant relationship Interest Rate of Credit and Inflation to CPI. Based on Adjuted R Square; Interest Rate of Credit, Money Supply, USD Exchange Rate, and Inflation towards to CPI is 65.6% while the rest of it 34.4% was influenced by other factors.

Can stock market liquidity and volatility predict business cycles?

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Carlston
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Factor ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Out Of Sample

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and business cycles by using information from both liquidity and volatility measures. Design/methodology/approach The paper estimates liquidity and volatility measures from over 5,000 NYSE rms and extracts a common factor, which the paper calls uncertainty. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to determine the ability of the uncertainty factor to predict growth in real GDP, industrial production, consumer price index, real consumption and changes in real investment. Findings The paper finds that on average, positive shocks to the uncertainty factor occur in the quarters preceding and at the beginning of a recession. During the quarters toward the end of recessions, there are negative shocks to uncertainty on average. Originality/value Previous research has explored using either liquidity or volatility to forecast economic activity. The paper bridges the two branches of research and finds a link to real GDP growth and business cycles.

scholarly journals Occupational Profile of Poverty in Pakistan

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1093-1104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashida Haq
Keyword(s):  
Development Process ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Occupational Profile ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Labour Absorption

The issue of poverty in Pakistan has its significance for sustainable development. Long run development is not possible without protecting the rights of the vulnerable groups and the participation of the entire population in the development process. A notable development in the last decade in Pakistan’s economic scene has been the sharp pick up in the incidence of poverty. It can be attributed to several factor. The real GDP growth fell from 6 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent in the first half of the 1990s and declined further to just over 4 percent in the second half of the decade. The rate of inflation remained in single digits throughout the 1980s but had a rapid increase of 12 percent during the first half of the 1990s. It is significant to note that food prices generally rose more sharply than overall consumer price index. The unemployment rate increased by 2 percent in the 1990s as compared to in the 1980s reflecting the deceleration of labour absorption in the economy in response to the significant decrease in the economic growth during the nineties.

Effects of Macroeconomic Factors on Gross Domestic Product in Nepal

2020 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 91-104
Author(s):  
Sita Khatiwada
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression Model ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Macroeconomic Factors ◽  
Domestic Credit ◽  
The Relationship

The main aim of this paper has tried to find the effect of macroeconomic factors like trade, population growth rate, domestic credit to private sector, and consumer price index on GDP growth using time series data of the last four decades (1975-2018) of Nepal which has been retrieved from a legitimate source of World Bank. This study has used descriptive analysis and multiple linear regression model to access the relationship between predictors and predictand variables. It has been found that there was no significant relationship between GDP growth and macroeconomic factors. This implies that change in any of the variables did not change GDP growth. The finding of the study has suggested the need for more researches with reliable data to find out the causes of economic growth in Nepal.

Dampak Penerapan Perbankan Syari’ah Terhadap Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Negara: Kajian Perbandingan Malaysia dan Indonesia

2017 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 37
Author(s):  
Hansen Rusliani
Keyword(s):  
Gross Domestic Product ◽  
Response Function ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Vector Autoregression ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Domestic Product

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui dampak perbankan syari’ah terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia dan Malaysia. Data yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini merupakan data primer (interview) dan data sekunder dalam bentuk bulanan yang diperoleh dari Badan Pusat Statistik Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Bank Indonesia (SEKI-BI) dan Statistik Perbankan Syari’ah Bank Indonesia (SPS-BI) serta data dari Bank Negara Malaysia dan Departemen Statistik Malaysia dalam periode waktu kurun waktu 16 tahun, 2000 sampai dengan 2015. Observasi penelitian dilakukan di Indonesia dan Malaysia untuk memperkaya analisis. Penelitian ini menggunakan Vector Autoregression (VAR), Uji Kointegrasi serta dikombinasikan dengan Response Function (IRF) dan Decomposition (FEVD) untuk melihat interaksi antara faktor makro ekonomi dengan pembiayaan dalam jangka panjang. Adapun variabel yang digunakan adalah total pembiayan syari’ah (Total Syari’ah Financing) dan Gross Domestic Product (GDP) sebagai representasi pertumbuhan ekonomi. Untuk tambahan variabel digunakan Consumer Price Index (CPI) sebagai representasi tingkat inflasi. Hipotesis penelitian yaitu terdapat pertumbuhan ekonomi setiap tahunnya dikedua negara tersebut pasca krisis moneter.

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