scholarly journals Occupational Profile of Poverty in Pakistan

2001 ◽  
Vol 40 (4II) ◽  
pp. 1093-1104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashida Haq
Keyword(s):  
Development Process ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Vulnerable Groups ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Occupational Profile ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Labour Absorption

The issue of poverty in Pakistan has its significance for sustainable development. Long run development is not possible without protecting the rights of the vulnerable groups and the participation of the entire population in the development process. A notable development in the last decade in Pakistan’s economic scene has been the sharp pick up in the incidence of poverty. It can be attributed to several factor. The real GDP growth fell from 6 percent in the 1980s to 5 percent in the first half of the 1990s and declined further to just over 4 percent in the second half of the decade. The rate of inflation remained in single digits throughout the 1980s but had a rapid increase of 12 percent during the first half of the 1990s. It is significant to note that food prices generally rose more sharply than overall consumer price index. The unemployment rate increased by 2 percent in the 1990s as compared to in the 1980s reflecting the deceleration of labour absorption in the economy in response to the significant decrease in the economic growth during the nineties.

Can stock market liquidity and volatility predict business cycles?

2018 ◽  
Vol 35 (1) ◽  
pp. 81-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Carlston
Keyword(s):  
Business Cycles ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Common Factor ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Market Liquidity ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Uncertainty Factor ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Out Of Sample

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to predict real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and business cycles by using information from both liquidity and volatility measures. Design/methodology/approach The paper estimates liquidity and volatility measures from over 5,000 NYSE rms and extracts a common factor, which the paper calls uncertainty. In-sample and out-of-sample forecasting tests are used to determine the ability of the uncertainty factor to predict growth in real GDP, industrial production, consumer price index, real consumption and changes in real investment. Findings The paper finds that on average, positive shocks to the uncertainty factor occur in the quarters preceding and at the beginning of a recession. During the quarters toward the end of recessions, there are negative shocks to uncertainty on average. Originality/value Previous research has explored using either liquidity or volatility to forecast economic activity. The paper bridges the two branches of research and finds a link to real GDP growth and business cycles.

scholarly journals ANALYSIS OF INFLATION PERSISTENCE IN SERBIA

2016 ◽  
Vol 1 (9) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mirjana Miletić ◽  
Siniša Miletić
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Inflation Persistence ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Equilibrium Level ◽  
Autoregression Model ◽  
Simple Average

In this paper, we analyzed inflation persistence in Serbia, both at the aggregatelevel as well as for the different components of the consumer price index. Theanalysis was done for the series of prices given on the quarterly basis for the periodfrom 2002q1 to 2013q2. We applied univariate autoregression model (AR) of order p,whereby sum of autoregression coefficients was used as a measure of inflationpersistence. In addition, special attention was paid to the problem of structural breaksin the series of inflation as it may overestimate the level of inflation persistence andcould give misleading signals. The importance of appropriate assessment of theinflation persistence stems from the fact that the impossibility of faster return ofinflation to the long-run equilibrium level, after external or domestic shock, hasimplications on the conducting of monetary policy and represents a major challengefor its effectiveness, especially in emerging countries like Serbia. If the persistence ofinflation is higher, monetary policy reaction should be stronger and proactive. If theestimated level and persistence of inflation is lower in comparison with previousempirical analysis, this could suggest that inflation expectations are now betteranchored, which is particularly important for countries with inflation targetingregime. Results of the analysis indicate that the inflation persistence in the Serbia ismodest and that is higher at the aggregate level compared to the simple average of thecomponents of the consumer price index. This is probably consequence of so-calledaggregation effect, since the highest persistency have the prices of those products withthe largest share in the consumer basket. In the case of Serbia, food prices have thehighest degree of persistence and the largest share in the consumer basket.

ATTAINMENT OF HIGHER ENROLLMENT RATES IN PAKISTAN: A MACROECONOMIC AND ECONOMETRIC STUDY

2012 ◽  
Vol 01 (07) ◽  
pp. 17-29
Author(s):  
Furrukh Bashir ◽  
Shahbaz Nawaz ◽  
Rahat Ullah ◽  
Muhammad Ramzan Arshad ◽  
Munwar Bagum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Labor Force ◽  
Health Expenditure ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Government Expenditure ◽  
Government Revenue ◽  
Long Run ◽  
University Enrollment ◽  
Enrollment Rates ◽  
Short Run

Education is always considered as the major determinant for the development of any economy. Enrollment at various levels also shows that how much education is common within the citizens of the country. Considering the importance of enrollment, the current study examines the influence of some macroeconomic variables on various levels i.e. primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. Time series data has been gathered on consumer price index, government revenue, employed labor force, government expenditure, and health expenditure for the period from 1972 to 2010. For long run estimates, Johansen Co integration test is used and short run estimates are taken through error correction model. The results of the study exhibit positive association of employed labor force, government expenditure and health expenditure with primary, secondary, higher, college, professional and university enrollment in Pakistan. On the other side, consumer price index and government revenue have been found to be inversely influencing enrollment at various levels. Short run results are also much favorable for the economy and reveals convergence towards long run equilibrium due to any disturbances in the short run period. At the end study gives some policy implications that government should decrease consumer price index and tax rate and to increase government expenditure in terms of education and health for higher enrollment rates in Pakistan.

Development Growth Models for Singapore and Malaysia: A Geweke Causality Analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 165-186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tan Khee Giap ◽  
Nguyen Le Phuong Anh ◽  
Ye Ye Denise
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Linear Dependence ◽  
Growth Models ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Multiple Time ◽  
Causality Analysis ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run

Purpose Nearly five decades after undergoing a structural transformation and navigating several external shocks, both Singapore and Malaysia are now grappling with some crucial policy challenges that necessitate a course-correction in order to sustain their growth momentum, going forward. In light of the renewed interest in understanding the growth constraints faced by the two countries, this paper aims to empirically explore the drivers of economic growth in both Singapore and Malaysia, using data from 1975 to 2012. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs a novel empirical approach-the Geweke causality analysis-to investigate the causal drivers of economic growth in Singapore and Malaysia. Intuitively, the Geweke causality analysis helps us understand and measure the linear dependence and feedback between multiple time series variables. To that effect, we perform both a bi-variate as well as a multi-variate causality analysis. Findings The empirical results established using Geweke causality analysis suggest that Malaysia's new development trajectory should lie in rebalancing the economy toward greater domestic demand and building a robust services sector. The results also suggest that Singapore, on the other hand, should embrace a growth model that goes beyond relying heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI) as a source of economic growth as the linear dependence between FDI and real GDP growth appears to be weaker compared to the linear dependence between the remaining variables and the real GDP growth. Originality/value While the traditional growth accounting framework provides useful insights at the aggregate level, there is a growing literature that discusses the importance of sectoral analysis to understand structural transformations in the economies which become important to sustain productivity growth in the long-run. This is immensely relevant in the case of Malaysia and Singapore, as well, especially with the changing policy focus in these countries to overcome structural growth issues. In light of this growing discussion on the importance of understanding the growth dynamics at the sectoral level, this paper presents new empirical evidence on the growth drivers in Singapore and Malaysia with a sectoral focus.

scholarly journals THE LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN HOUSE PRICES AND INFLATION IN SOUTH AFRICA: AN ARDL APPROACH

2013 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 188-198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roula Inglesi-Lotz ◽  
Rangan Gupta
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Price Index ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Data Series ◽  
Middle Segment ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Housing Costs

This paper investigates whether house prices provide a suitable hedge against inflation in South Africa by analysing the long-run relationship between house prices and the prices of non-housing goods and services. Quarterly data series are collected for the luxury, large middle-segment, medium middle-segment, small middle-segment and the entire middle segment of house prices, as well as, the consumer price index excluding housing costs for the period 1970:Q1–2011:Q1. Based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) models, the empirical results indicate long-run cointegration between the house prices of all the segments and the consumer price index excluding housing costs. Moreover, the long-run elasticity of house prices with respect to prices of non-housing goods and services, i.e., the Fisher coefficient is greater than one for the luxury segment, virtually equal to one for the small middle-segment, and less than one for the large and medium middle-segments, as well as the affordable segments. More importantly though, the estimated Fisher coefficients are not statistically different from unity – a result consistent with the proposed theoretical framework relating housing prices and consumer prices excluding housing expenditure. In general, we infer that house prices in South Africa provide a stable inflation hedge in the long-run.

Retail and Consumer Prices, 1955-1963

1964 ◽  
Vol 30 ◽  
pp. 44-51 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. A. H. Godley ◽  
D. A. Rowe
Keyword(s):  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
National Income ◽  
Food Prices ◽  
The Other ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Unit Costs ◽  
Correct Analysis ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Retail Prices

This paper gives an account of a method of forecasting the Ministry of Labour's retail prices index, and of deriving from it a forecast of the consumer price index. (This is the index used in the National Income statistics to deflate the value of consumers' expenditure to volume terms.) Good forecasting obviously has to be based on a correct analysis of the factors which determine price changes; the article throws light on the way in which cost changes are taken into account when prices are changed. It seems that retail prices (apart from seasonal food prices) do not respond directly to short-term fluctuations in demand and output. Businessmen do not raise prices because demand suddenly rises; nor on the other hand do they lower them when output moves up sharply and unit costs fall. The analysis, therefore, provides further support for the ‘normal cost’ theory of pricing—that businessmen set prices by calculating their costs when working at some normal capacity, and add a conventional margin.

scholarly journals ESTIMATION OF LONG-RUN RELATIONSHIP OF INFLATION (CPI & WPI), AND OIL PRICES WITH KSE-100 INDEX: EVIDENCE FROM JOHANSEN MULTIVARIATE COINTEGRATION APPROACH

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 567-588 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rizwan RAHEEM AHMED ◽  
Jolita VVEINHARDT ◽  
Dalia ŠTREIMIKIENĖ ◽  
Saghir Pervaiz GHAURI ◽  
Nawaz AHMAD
Keyword(s):  
Crude Oil ◽  
Price Index ◽  
Consumer Price Index ◽  
Wholesale Price ◽  
Impulse Response Function ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Wholesale Price Index ◽  
Relationship Of

This research is an attempt to framework the applied strides to evaluate the long run relationship among commonly used inflation proxies induces such as, wholesale price index (WPI) and consumer price index (CPI), and crude oil price (COP) with KSE100 index returns. In this research we used monthly data for the time period from July 1995 to June 2016, and thus, in this way total 252 observations have been considered. Time series have been made stationary by applying ADF and PP tests at first difference. Johansen multivariate conintegration approach was used to test the long-term association amongst the considered macroeconomic variables. The results indicated that CPI and COP significantly affect KSE100 index returns that indicated CPI along with COP have foreseen power to impact KSE100 index. In contrary, the results of WPI and COP do not have long run relationship with KSE100 index in case of Pakistani economy. Results of variance decomposition exhibited that the index of LKSE100 was realistically rarer exogenous in connection to distinctive factors, as around 92.31% of its variation was explained due to its own specific shocks. It is concluded that CPI and COP can impact the KSE100 index returns. It is confirmed by the results of impulse response function that there is a positive and long run relationship between KSE100 returns and consumer price index (proxy of inflation) and international crude oil prices.

scholarly journals Taxation, government spending and economic growth: The case of Bulgaria

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 255-266
Author(s):  
G. Ganchev ◽  
◽  
I. Todorov ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Growth Rate ◽  
Tax Revenue ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Gdp Growth Rate ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

The objective of this article is to estimate the impact of three fiscal instruments (direct taxes, indirect taxes, and government expenditure) on Bulgaria’s economic growth. The study employs an autoregressive distributed lag model (ARDL) and Eurostat quarterly seasonally adjusted data for the period 1999–2020. Four control variables (the shares of gross capital formation, household consumption, and exports in GDP as well as the economic growth in the euro area) are included in the model to account for the influence of non-fiscal factors on Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate. The empirical results indicate a long-run equilibrium relationship between Bulgaria’s economic growth and the independent variables in the ARDL. In the short term, Bulgaria’s real GDP growth rate is affected by its own past values and the previous values of the shares of direct tax revenue, exports, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue in GDP. In the long term, Bulgaria’s economic growth is influenced by its own previous values and the past values of the share of household consumption in GDP and the euro area’s real GDP growth rate. Fiscal instruments can be used to stabilize Bulgaria’s growth in the short run but they are neutral in the long run. The direct tax revenue, government consumption, and indirect tax revenue are highly effective and can be used as tools for invigorating and stabilizing Bulgaria’s economic growth in the short run. However, in the long term, the real GDP growth rate can be hastened only by encouraging domestic demand (final consumption expenditure of households) and promoting exports. This research cannot answer the question of whether flat income taxation stabilizes the economy or not, since it does not separate the impact of tax rate changes from the influence of tax base modifications.

scholarly journals Investor Sentiment, Sovereign Debt Mispricing, and Economic Outcomes

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (166) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramzy Al Amine ◽  
Tim Willems
Keyword(s):  
Sovereign Debt ◽  
Investor Sentiment ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Sovereign Spreads ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
The Business Cycle ◽  
Future Outcomes

We find that countries which are able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (for example because investors take a bullish view on a country's future), are more likely to develop economic difficulties later on. We obtain this result through a two-stage procedure, where a first regression links sovereign spreads to fundamentals, after which residuals from this regression are deployed in a second stage to assess their impact on future outcomes (real GDP growth and the occurrence of fiscal crises). We confirm the relevance of past sovereign debt mispricing in several out-of-sample exercises, where they reduce the RMSE of real GDP growth forecasts by as much as 15 percent. This provides strong support for theories of sentiment affecting the business cycle. Our findings also suggest that countries shouldn't solely rely on spread levels when determining their fiscal strategy; underlying fundamentals should inform policy as well, since historical relationships between spreads and fundamentals often continue to apply in the medium-to-long run.

Establishing finance-growth linkage for India: a financial conditions index (FCI) approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 14 (5) ◽  
pp. 1032-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
A.K. Giri ◽  
Deven Bansod
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Global Financial Crisis ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Data Sets ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Financial Conditions ◽  
Multiple Markets ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Global Financial Crisis

Purpose The global financial crisis of 2008 emphasized the need for monetary policy authorities to have a more comprehensive view of the conditions prevailing in the economy before deciding their policy stance. The purpose of this paper is to outline the construction of a financial conditions index (FCI) and investigate the possible co-integrating relationship between the economic growth and FCI. Design/methodology/approach The study employs the PCA methodology, with appropriate augmentations to handle the unbalanced panel data-sets and constructs a FCI for India. It tests the growth-predicting power of FCI by applying the auto regressive distributed lags approach to co-integration and verifies if the FCI is co-integrated with real GDP growth. It also discusses construction of a financial development index (FDI) which tracks the financial markets through M3, market capitalization and credit amount to residents. Findings The constructed FCI has a quarterly frequency and is available starting 1998q2. The long-run coefficient of FCI while predicting the real GDP growth is significant at 10 percent. The results confirm that a more-broader index FCI outperforms a narrower index FDI in growth prediction. Research limitations/implications By showing that FCI is a better growth predictor than FDI, the study establishes the importance of including the foreign exchange markets, bond markets and stock markets while summarizing the conditions in the economy. The authors hope that the FCI would be helpful to the monetary authorities in their policy decisions. Originality/value The paper adds to the few existing studies studies dealing with FCI for Indian economy and constructs a more comprehensive index which tracks multiple markets simultaneously. It also fills the gap in literature by evaluating the correlating relationship between FCI and economic growth.

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