OIL PRICE FLUCTUATIONS AND ENERGY COMMODITY PRICES: AN ANALYSIS OF ASYMMETRIC EFFECTS

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-23
Author(s):  
THAI-HA LE ◽  
YOUNGHO CHANG ◽  
DONGHYUN PARK
Keyword(s):  
Natural Gas ◽  
Commodity Prices ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Price Increases ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Previous studies mostly ignore possible nonlinear behaviors that may be caused by asymmetry, persistence, or structural breaks. This study aims to fill this gap by applying the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag technique of Shin et al. [( 2014 ). Modelling asymmetric cointegration and dynamic multipliers in a nonlinear ARDL framework. In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt: Econometric Methods and Applications, pp. 281–314. New York: Springer] to examine the dynamic effect of oil prices on other energy prices based on nonlinear empirical frameworks. We identify how oil prices and four other energy commodity prices behave using daily data from January 07, 1991 to February 25, 2020. The long-run relationships suggest both oil price increases and decreases are significantly and positively related to the prices of all other energy commodities. There seems to be asymmetry in the linkages between oil prices and all the prices of diesel fuel, gasoline, heating oil and natural gas in the long run. Except for natural gas, the effects of oil price increases are significantly larger than are those of oil price decreases. However, in the short run, the results are somewhat different. An asymmetric impact of oil price changes is found for gasoline and the effects of oil price decreases are larger than are those of oil price increases. In our model, the real effective exchange rate of the US dollar is explicitly incorporated to capture the linkages between US dollar fluctuations and energy price movements. We find that the relative weakness of the US dollar strengthens the prices of energy commodities in the global market.

scholarly journals Test for asymmetry on the ex-pump price of premium gasoline in Ghana, Kenya, and Colombia

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 73-89
Author(s):  
Senanu Kwasi Klutse ◽  
Gábor Dávid Kiss
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Crude Oil ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Dollar Exchange Rate ◽  
Fuel Prices ◽  
Crude Oil Prices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

Once again, the World has been faced with an oil price shock as a result of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus pandemic. This has resurrected an old debate of whether retail fuel prices adjust significantly to either increases or decreases in international crude oil prices. With many countries moving towards the deregulation of their petroleum sub-sector, the impact of the US dollar exchange rate on retail fuel prices cannot be overlooked. This study investigates the rate at which positive and negative changes in international Brent crude oil prices and the US dollar exchange rate affected the increases or decreases in the ex-pump price of premium gasoline between February 2012 and December 2019. Using a non-linear auto-regressive distributed lag model, the exchange rate was found to play a significant role in fluctuations in the retail price of premium gasoline in Ghana and Colombia in the long run, howev-er, the rate of adjustment between the negative and positive changes was not significant, dispelling the perception of price asymmetry. There was no significant relationship between the ex-pump price of premium gasoline and the international Brent crude oil price in Ghana and Kenya in the long run. This study recommends that the aforementioned countries prioritise the creation of ex-change rate buffers to prevent exchange rate shocks that may affect retail fuel prices.

Does Oil Price Asymmetrically Impact Remittance Outflows? The Case of Oman

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Selçuk Akçay
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Nonlinear Ardl ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Asymmetric Impact ◽  
Asymmetric Cointegration

Abstract The mechanism by which oil price affects remittance outflows is not well understood and investigated. Using non-linear autoregressive distributed lag model (Shin, Yu, and. Greenwood-Nimmo. 2014. “Modelling Asymmetric Cointegration and Dynamic Multipliers in a Nonlinear ARDL Framework.” In Festschrift in Honor of Peter Schmidt, vol. 44, edited by R. C. Sickles, and W. C. Horrace, 281–314. New York: Springer New York. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4899-8008-3_9), this study mainly seeks to investigate the asymmetric impact of oil prices on remittance outflows over the period from 1975 to 2015, for an oil-based economy, Oman. The results of the study reveal that changes in oil price are asymmetrically associated with remittance outflows in both short and long run. Furthermore, the response of remittance outflows to developments in oil prices is different in a way that positive shocks in oil prices promote remittance outflows, while negative shocks have no significant impact.

scholarly journals THE INFLUENCE OF OIL PRICES ON INDONESIA’S EXCHANGE RATE

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 303-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seema Wati Narayan ◽  
Telisa Falianty ◽  
Lutzardo Tobing
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Real Exchange Rate ◽  
Exchange Rate Regime ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
The Real ◽  
Float Exchange Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Us Dollar

This study tests for a long-run relation between oil prices and the rupiah–US dollarexchange rate. We discover, first, that the long-run cointegration relation between oilprices and the real exchange rate (RER) is sensitive to different exchange rate regimesin Indonesia. Second, we find a long-run cointegrating relation between oil prices andthe RER over the float exchange rate regime. However, in the managed float period,there is no evidence of a long-run relation between oil prices and the RER. In the longrun, higher oil prices lead to an appreciation of the rupiah against the US dollar in thefloat period (post-August 1997 period). We demonstrate that these results are robust todifferent data frequencies.

scholarly journals Oil prices and the US effective exchange rate: A hidden cointegration analysis

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 134 ◽  
Author(s):  
Panagiotis Rafailidis ◽  
Constantinos Katrakilidis
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Cointegration Analysis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Effective Exchange ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractWe investigate the long-run relationship between the US Dollar effective exchange and the oil prices (wti) over the period from January 1986 to August 2014. We allow for the relationship to be nonlinear by employing the hidden cointegration technique of Granger and Yoon (2002) and Schorderet (2004). The Quandt – Andrews approach allows accounting for structural breaks. The results reveal a long-run relationship between the two markets.

Impact of exchange rate and oil price on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk: Evidence from Malaysian capital market

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 27
Author(s):  
Huda Arshad ◽  
Ruhaini Muda ◽  
Ismah Osman
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Sovereign Bond ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study analyses the impact of exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk for Malaysian capital market. This study aims to ascertain the effect of weakening Malaysian Ringgit and declining of crude oil price on the fixed income investors in the emerging capital market. This study utilises daily time series data of Malaysian exchange rate, oil price and the yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk from year 2006 until 2015. The findings show that the weakening of exchange rate and oil prices contribute different impacts in the short and long run. In the short run, the exchange rate and oil prices does not have a direct relation with the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. However, in the long run, the result reveals that there is a significant relationship between exchange rate and oil prices on the yield of sovereign bond and sukuk. It is evident that only a unidirectional causality relation is present between exchange rate and oil price towards selected yield of Malaysian sovereign bond and sukuk. This study provides numerical and empirical insights on issues relating to capital market that supports public authorities and private institutions on their decision and policymaking process.

The Impact of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on the Stock Market in the United States (U.S); Evidence from Linear ARDL Framework

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 132-132
Author(s):  
Aref Emamian
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Stock Market ◽  
The United States ◽  
Real Effective Exchange Rate ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Fiscal Policies ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

This study examines the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the stock market in the United States (US), were used. By employing the method of Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) developed by Pesaran et al. (2001). Annual data from the Federal Reserve, World Bank, and International Monetary Fund, from 1986 to 2017 pertaining to the American economy, the results show that both policies play a significant role in the stock market. We find a significant positive effect of real Gross Domestic Product and the interest rate on the US stock market in the long run and significant negative relationship effect of Consumer Price Index (CPI) and broad money on the US stock market both in the short run and long run. On the other hand, this study only could support the significant positive impact of tax revenue and significant negative impact of real effective exchange rate on the US stock market in the short run while in the long run are insignificant. Keywords: ARDL, monetary policy, fiscal policy, stock market, United States

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

Exploring the inflationary effect of oil price in the US

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 60-76 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amine Lahiani
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Structural Breaks ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Inflation Expectations ◽  
Oil Price Shocks ◽  
Price Shocks ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to explore the effect of oil price shocks on the US Consumer Price Index over the monthly period from 1876:01 to 2014:04.Design/methodology/approachThe author uses the Bai and Perron (2003) structural break test to split the data sample into sub-periods delimited by the computed break dates. Afterwards, the author uses the quantile treatment effects over the full sample and then, by including sub-periods dummies to accommodate the selected structural breaks that drive the relationship between inflation and oil price growth.FindingsThe findings include a decreased transmission effect of oil price changes on inflation in recent years; a varied elasticity of inflation to the growth rate of oil prices across the distribution; and, finally, evidence of asymmetry in the relationship between the growth rate of oil prices and inflation, with a higher transmission mechanism for decreasing rather than increasing oil prices.Practical implicationsPolicymakers should remain alert to monitoring potential inflation increases and should take precautionary measures to anchor inflation expectations, because inflation reacts differently to positive and negative oil price shocks. Moreover, authorities should consider the asymmetric reaction of inflation to oil price shocks to adopt an appropriate monetary policy strategy to achieve the price stability target.Originality/valueThe paper used a quantile regression model with structural breaks, which has not yet been used in the literature.

How to Hedge Against Inflation Risk in Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
T. Thanh-Binh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Predictive Power ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Price Stability ◽  
Leading Indicators ◽  
Inflation Risk ◽  
Monthly Data ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Us ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Us Dollar

Abstract Vietnam has experienced galloping inflation and faced serious dollarization since its reform. To effectively control its inflation for promoting price stability, it is necessary to find efficacious leading indicators and the hedging mechanism. Using monthly data over the period from January 1997 to June 2020, this study finds the predictive power and hedge effectiveness of both gold and the US dollar on inflation in the long-run and short-run within the asymmetric framework. Especially, the response of inflation to the shocks of gold price and the US dollar are quick and decisive, disclosing the sensitiveness of inflation to these two variables.

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