MODELING THE DIFFERENCES IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEW ANTIBIOTIC CLASS VERSUS THE DEVELOPMENT OF A NEXT GENERATION ANTIBIOTIC ON THE TOTAL RESISTANCE IN A HOSPITAL SETTING
The increase in antibiotic resistance continues to pose a major public health risk leading to a more intense focus on ways to limit and even reduce this threat. One such effort is the push for twenty new classes of antibiotics by the year 2020. Most of the current antibiotics used today are derivations of antibiotics first introduced forty to fifty years ago. In this paper, we develop mathematical models to simulate the difference between implementing a next generation antibiotic versus a new class antibiotic within a hospital setting. Using these models, we simulate the short term and long term effects of using the new antibiotic to combat existing levels of antimicrobial resistance. In addition to analyzing the difference in antibiotic classes, we also analyze the effects of the method of administration of the new antibiotic. Simulations suggest a need in the long term for the development of new classes of antibiotics administered in a very structured, targeted manner.