Systemic Risk and Trading Strategy Based on Correlation-Based Networks in Stock Markets

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (03) ◽  
pp. 2050028
Author(s):  
Jia-Wei Yu ◽  
Qin-Qin Huang ◽  
Yong-Han Guo ◽  
Zhi-Qiang Jiang ◽  
Wen-Jie Xie
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Risk Indicators ◽  
Future Price ◽  
Trading Costs ◽  
Excess Returns ◽  
Systemic Risks

In this paper, we construct five systemic risk indicators and test their performances based on four different datasets. It is observed that the five indicators can accurately indicate the increment of systemic risks during the periods of sub-prime crisis and European debt crisis. Trading strategies based on the risk indicators are further designed to test the warning ability of future price drops. The backtests reveal that trading based on the five indicators provides satisfied excess returns when the trading costs are included. Our results provide insights to find new network-based risk indicators to early warn the systemic risks in financial markets.

scholarly journals Risks of Traders on the World Stock Market on the Example of Ukraine

2019 ◽  
Vol 67 ◽  
pp. 06001 ◽  
Author(s):  
George Abuselidze ◽  
Olga Mohylevska ◽  
Nina Merezhko ◽  
Nadiia Reznik ◽  
Anna Slobodianyk
Keyword(s):  
Stock Market ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
World Market ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Practical Significance ◽  
External Shocks ◽  
Domino Effect ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact

The article reveals the essence and features of the development of the stock market in Ukraine. It was established that the vigorous activity of countries in the world financial markets means that they also face a risk of global financial turmoil (the so-called “domino effect”). It is determined that the impact of global financial instability on the country depends on the openness of its economy that will lead to significant external “shocks”. The possibility of providing effective influence on domestic stock market activity with taking into account the changing world situation, development of perfect trading strategies for each participant is substantiated. The conducted analysis of the world market conditions of stock markets in recent years has made it possible to assess the real risks for new participants in the stock market and become the basis for the development of an appropriate effective trading strategy. The practical significance of the results is that they allow for a measurable approach to assessing the existing risk when choosing one or another trading strategy to move to the world stock market.

scholarly journals United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (246) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Financial Stability ◽  
The United States ◽  
Technical Note ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Systemic Risks ◽  
Risk Oversight

The heterogeneity of the United States (U.S.) financial markets and complex regulatory and supervisory institutional setup in the United States underscore the importance of enhancing systemic risk oversight and building effective macroprudential tools. An effective framework would encompass identification and prioritization of system-wide risks and vulnerabilities to spur timely policy action. Structures that ensure interagency sharing of information, identify possible emerging regulatory gaps, obtain a good overview of systemic risks, and develop a cooperative framework to address identified threats to financial stability would be necessary components of such a framework. This Technical Note reviews those processes in the United States, as well as examining the issues of systemic liquidity.

scholarly journals An intelligent trading mechanism based on the group trading strategy portfolio to reduce massive loss by the grouping genetic algorithm

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chun-Hao Chen ◽  
Yu-Hsuan Chen ◽  
Vicente Garcia Diaz ◽  
Jerry Chun-Wei Lin
Keyword(s):  
Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Genetic Operators ◽  
Grouping Genetic Algorithm ◽  
Balance Weight ◽  
Trading Mechanism ◽  
Stop Loss

AbstractIt is always difficult and challenge to obtain suitable trading signals for the desired securities in financial markets. The popular way to deal with it is through the use of trading strategies (TSs) made up of technical or fundamental indicators. Due to the different properties of TSs, an algorithm was proposed to find trading signals by obtaining the group trading strategy portfolio (GTSP), which is composed of strategy groups that can be employed to generate various TS portfolios (TSP) instead of a single TS. The stop-loss and take-profit points (SLTP) are widely utilized by shareholders to avoid massive losses. However, the appropriate SLTP is hard to set by users. Therefore, in this paper, the algorithm, namely GTSP-SLTP algorithm, is proposed to not only obtain a reliable GTSP but also find appropriate SLTP using the grouping genetic algorithm. A chromosome is encoded by the generated SLTP and GTSP along with the weights for strategy groups that are the SLTP, grouping, weight, and strategy parts. To assess the goodness of a chromosome, the evaluation function that consists of the group balance, weight balance, risk factor, and profit factor, is employed. Genetic operators are then performed to produce new solutions for next population. The genetic process is performed iteratively until the stop conditions have achieved. Last but not the least, empirical experiments were conducted on three financial datasets with different trends and a case study is also given to reveal the effectiveness and robustness of the designed GTSP-SLTP algorithm.

A Survey of Systemic Risk Indicators

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antonio Di Cesare ◽  
Anna Rogantini Picco
Keyword(s):  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Risk Indicators

scholarly journals Can Economic Factors Improve Momentum Trading Strategies? The Case of Managed Futures during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Economies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 86
Author(s):  
Renata Guobužaitė ◽  
Deimantė Teresienė
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Risk Premium ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
New Approach ◽  
Managed Futures ◽  
Asset Classes ◽  
Momentum Trading ◽  
Insight Into

Systematic momentum trading is a prevalent risk premium strategy in different portfolios. This paper focuses on the performance of the managed futures strategy based on the momentum signal across different economic regimes, focusing on the COVID-19 pandemic period. COVID-19 had a solid but short-lived impact on financial markets, and therefore gives a unique insight into momentum strategies’ performance during such critical moments of market stress. We offer a new approach to implementing momentum strategies by adding macroeconomic variables to the model. We test a managed futures strategy’s performance with a well-diversified futures portfolio across different asset classes. The research concludes that constructing a portfolio based on academically/economically sound momentum signals with its allocation timing based on broader economic factors significantly improves managed futures strategies and adds significant diversification benefits to the investors’ portfolios.

Cluster Analysis for Evaluating Trading Strategies

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Cluster Analysis ◽  
Cost Analysis ◽  
Trading Strategy ◽  
Trading Strategies ◽  
Trading Cost ◽  
Clustering Technique ◽  
Statistical Clustering ◽  
Trader Performance

In this article, we introduce a new methodology to empirically identify the primary strategies used by a trader using only post-trade fill data. To do this, we apply a well-established statistical clustering technique called k-means to a sample of progress charts, representing the portion of the order completed by each point in the day as a measure of a trade’s aggressiveness. Our methodology identifies the primary strategies used by a trader and determines which strategy the trader used for each order in the sample. Having identified the strategy used for each order, trading cost analysis can be performed by strategy. We also discuss ways to exploit this technique to characterize trader behavior, assess trader performance, and suggest the appropriate benchmarks for each distinct trading strategy.

scholarly journals Risk Taking, Principal Agent Problems and Breakdown of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR): How to Reestablish Safe-Assets and Capital Funding for Social Security?

Equilibrium ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 7-30 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hans-Georg Petersen ◽  
Alexander Martin Wiegelmann
Keyword(s):  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Financial Market ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Principal Agent ◽  
Market Structures ◽  
Financial Products ◽  
Monetary System ◽  
Capital Funding ◽  
Corporate Social

The breakdown of the financial markets in fall 2007 and the following debt crisis in the EU has produced an enormous mistrust in financial products and the monetary system. The paper describes the background of the crisis induced by functional failures in risk management and the multifold principal agent problems existing in the financial market structures. The innovated nontransparent financial products have mixed up different risk weights and puzzled, or even fooled formerly loyal customers. Contemporaneously abundant liquidity on the international financial market accompanied by easy money policies of the Fed in the US and the ECB in the euro zone have depressed the real interest rate to zero or even negative values. Desperate investors are seeking for safe-assets, but their demand remains unsatisfied. Low real interest rates and the consequently lacking compound interest effect in the same time jeopardize private as well as public insurance schemes being dependent on capital funding: the demographic crisis becomes gloomy. Therefore, the managers of the financial markets have to reestablish CSR and to divide the markets into safe-asset areas for the usual clients and “casino” areas for those who like to play with high risks. Only with transparency and risk adequate financial products can the lost commitment be regained.

Correction Mechanisms Shall Set Us Free

2018 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Asset Pricing ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Systemic Risk ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Market Environment ◽  
Rating Agencies ◽  
Market Protection ◽  
Protection Mechanisms ◽  
Structural Mechanisms

Market protection mechanisms work well during calm periods, but some fail miserably during slowdowns, at just the time we need them to work. When the market environment turns inhospitable, the accelerators take over from the brakes. This article frames the issues concerning oversight mechanisms, which enabled the crisis, and structural mechanisms, which in many ways advanced it. We detail the potential for competition for clients to interfere with the objective judgment of three financial markets gatekeepers: the credit rating agencies, auditors, and asset pricing firms. Any perceived bias in the quality of gatekeeping services can undermine market confidence. We then explore regulatory and contractual shortcomings that, in the event of a downturn or crisis in confidence, can exacerbate a narrow complication. In addition to the classic lemons problems in the context of information asymmetries, the tight relationship between ratings and prices perpetuate any re-rating or repricing scenarios—they combine to create an overwhelming downward force. Serious action is required. If unattended, these shortcomings leave our economy needlessly exposed to the same crisis-era systemic risk concerns that present themselves when downturns can spiral, unrestrained, into meltdowns.

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