scholarly journals Role of Information in Decision Making of Social Agents

2015 ◽  
Vol 14 (05) ◽  
pp. 1129-1166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vyacheslav I. Yukalov ◽  
Didier Sornette
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Mathematical Framework ◽  
Social Agents ◽  
Additional Information ◽  
Probabilistic Version ◽  
Classical Decision

The influence of additional information on the decision making of agents, who are the interacting members of a society, is analyzed within the mathematical framework based on the use of quantum probabilities. The introduction of social interactions, which influence the decisions of individual agents, leads to a generalization of the quantum decision theory (QDT) developed earlier by the authors for separate individuals. The generalized approach is free of the standard paradoxes of classical decision theory. This approach also explains the error-attenuation effects observed for the paradoxes occurring when decision makers, who are members of a society, consult with each other, increasing in this way the available mutual information. A precise correspondence between QDT and classical utility theory is formulated via the introduction of an intermediate probabilistic version of utility theory of a novel form, which obeys the requirement that zero-utility prospects should have zero probability weights.

scholarly journals RATIONALITY OR IRRATIONALITY? DECISION TO QUIT A JOB TO START A BUSINESS

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (08) ◽  
pp. 342-346
Author(s):  
Aliyu Aminu Ahmed ◽  
◽  
Ruqayya Aminu Muhammad ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Processes ◽  
Emerging Economies ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Management Consulting ◽  
Economic Man ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Classical Decision

The paper discusses rationality and decision making with a critical reflection on decisions by employees to quit jobs and set up fragile, micro, and rival businesses. This is a common phenomenon in management consulting businesses in especially emerging economies, where the demand for consultancy services is ballooning. The concepts of decision making and factors that influence decision making were discussed. Rationality and irrationality within the context of economics were briefly defined and theories such as (1) The utility theory , (2) The utility maximization theory and (3)The classical decision theory were used to explain the phenomenon. It was found that reasons for quitting or staying in a management consulting job is not only motivated by preparedness or readiness, rather a complex array of factors, some of which are observable and explainable while others may be attributable to complex cognitive processes that cannot be easily observed and explained. Deciding to leave a job is a complex but intentional rational decision that is influenced by many factors, some of which are observable, environmental, and cognitive. It is in the nature of the economic man to always decide, consequences of which might be sometimes predictable or influenced by events outside of the decision-makers control.

The role of agency in project initiation decisions

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 518-535 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Mullaly
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Rules ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Dynamics ◽  
Substantive Theory ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Board Level

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to explore the role of decision rules and agency in supporting project initiation decisions, and the influences of agency on decision-making effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – The study this paper is based upon used grounded theory methodology, and sought to understand the influences of individual decision makers on project initiation decisions within organizations. Data collection involved 28 participants who were involved in project initiation decisions within their organizations, who discussed the process of project initiation in their organization and their role within that process. Findings – The study demonstrates that the overall effectiveness of project initiation decisions is a product of agency, process effectiveness or rule effectiveness. The employment of agency can have a direct influence on decision-making effectiveness, it can compensate for organizational inadequacies of a process or political nature, and it can be constrained in the evidence of formal and effective organizational practices. Research limitations/implications – While agency was recognized by all participants, there are clearly circumstances where actors perceive the ability to exercise agency to be externally constrained. The study is exploratory, contributing to the development of substantive theory. Theory testing as well as a more in-depth investigation of the underlying drivers of agency would be valuable. Practical implications – The study provides executives and individuals supporting the initiation of projects with insights on how to effectively influence the effectiveness of project initiation decisions, and the degree to which personal characteristics influence organizational dynamics. Originality/value – Most discussions of agency has been framed the subject as an executive- or board-level phenomenon. The current study demonstrates that agency is in fact being perceived and operationalized at all levels. Those demonstrating agency in the majority of instances in this study do so in exercising stewardship behaviours. This has important implications for how agency is perceived by executives, and by how agency is exercised by actors at all levels of the organization.

scholarly journals Novel Parameterized Distance Measures on Hesitant Fuzzy Sets with Credibility Degree and Their Application in Decision-Making

Symmetry ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 10 (11) ◽  
pp. 557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jiaru Li ◽  
Fangwei Zhang ◽  
Qiang Li ◽  
Jing Sun ◽  
Janney Yee ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Fuzzy Sets ◽  
Cardinal Number ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Distance Measures ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Set ◽  
Hesitant Fuzzy Sets ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Relationship

The subject of this study is to explore the role of cardinality of hesitant fuzzy element (HFE) in distance measures on hesitant fuzzy sets (HFSs). Firstly, three parameters, i.e., credibility factor, conservative factor, and a risk factor are introduced, thereafter, a series of novel distance measures on HFSs are proposed using these three parameters. These newly proposed distance measures handle the relationship between the cardinal number and the element values of hesitant fuzzy set well, and are suitable to combine subjective and objective decision-making information. When using these functions, decision makers with different risk preferences are allowed to give different values for these three parameters. In particular, this study transfers the hesitance degree index to a credibility of the values in HFEs, which is consistent with people’s intuition. Finally, the practicability of the newly proposed distance measures is verified by two examples.

Augmenting Medical Diagnosis Decisions? An Investigation into Physicians’ Decision-Making Process with Artificial Intelligence

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Jussupow ◽  
Kai Spohrer ◽  
Armin Heinzl ◽  
Joshua Gawlitza
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Medical Errors ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Medical Decision ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Self Monitoring ◽  
Rule Based ◽  
Human Actors

Systems based on artificial intelligence (AI) increasingly support physicians in diagnostic decisions, but they are not without errors and biases. Failure to detect those may result in wrong diagnoses and medical errors. Compared with rule-based systems, however, these systems are less transparent and their errors less predictable. Thus, it is difficult, yet critical, for physicians to carefully evaluate AI advice. This study uncovers the cognitive challenges that medical decision makers face when they receive potentially incorrect advice from AI-based diagnosis systems and must decide whether to follow or reject it. In experiments with 68 novice and 12 experienced physicians, novice physicians with and without clinical experience as well as experienced radiologists made more inaccurate diagnosis decisions when provided with incorrect AI advice than without advice at all. We elicit five decision-making patterns and show that wrong diagnostic decisions often result from shortcomings in utilizing metacognitions related to decision makers’ own reasoning (self-monitoring) and metacognitions related to the AI-based system (system monitoring). As a result, physicians fall for decisions based on beliefs rather than actual data or engage in unsuitably superficial evaluation of the AI advice. Our study has implications for the training of physicians and spotlights the crucial role of human actors in compensating for AI errors.

What Is It Like to Be a Citizen?

In Our Name ◽  
2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric Beerbohm
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Cognitive Biases ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Extensive Literature ◽  
Ethics Of Belief ◽  
Moral Obligations

This chapter defends a theory of citizenship that recognizes our need to make online decisions under electoral pressures, given our foibles as decision makers. Drawing upon the extensive literature on decision and judgment, it examines how fragile citizens are when it comes to decision making. The usual heuristics offered by political scientists suggest that citizens rely on informational shortcuts that are morally irresponsible. If we reconceive the role of the voter in explicitly moral terms, this approach is unsatisfactory in addressing the cognitive biases and defects of citizens. The chapter also considers the notion of cognitive partisanship and argues that it is unavoidable for decision makers to rely on heuristics when they reason about complex decisions. It concludes by emphasizing the task for a democratic ethics of belief: to provide citizens with heuristics that reduce the cognitive burden while respecting the moral obligations to attach to coercive, term-shaping decision making.

Specialization vs. Diversification Decision Making

2014 ◽  
pp. 16-44
Author(s):  
Dimitris Folinas ◽  
Mohammed Althrawa
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Risk Avoidance ◽  
Industry Type ◽  
Industrial Cities ◽  
Export Policies ◽  
Import And Export ◽  
Returns On Investment

This chapter has two main aims: first, to explore the role of various economical, financial, and strategic forces influencing firms towards diversification and specialization decision making within the Saudi Arabian manufacturing industry, and second to assess the challenges for both types of companies at the time of decision making and afterwards. Surveying 100 decision makers in the industrial cities of Riyadh using questionnaires developed for both groups, the chapter initially attempts to identify the factors that had the greatest impact on firm performance based on firm returns on investment. Several factors were found significant; first, attempts of specialization were found associated with risk avoidance and managers craving to achieve industry dominant economic features, whilst results show an increased concern among diversified firm decision makers towards changes in import and export policies and regulations. Moreover, industry type was found effective in managerial responses as they weigh the role of the factors presented to the direction of the expansion made.

Confabulated Explanations

2020 ◽  
pp. 42-69
Author(s):  
Lisa Bortolotti
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Peer Feedback ◽  
Emotional Reactions ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Priming Effects ◽  
Self Reflection ◽  
Implicit Biases ◽  
Share Information ◽  
Epistemic Innocence

In this chapter, the author argues that the ill-grounded explanations agents sincerely offer for their choices have the potential for epistemic innocence. Such explanations are not based on evidence about the causes of the agents’ behaviour and typically turn out to be inaccurate. That is because agents tend to underestimate the role of priming effects, implicit biases, and basic emotional reactions in their decision making. However, offering explanations for their choices, even when the explanations are ill-grounded, enables them to share information about their choices with peers, facilitating peer feedback and self-reflection. Moreover, by providing plausible explanations for their behaviour—rather than acknowledging the influence of factors that cannot be easily controlled—agents preserve a sense of themselves as competent and largely coherent decision makers, which can improve their decision making.

4. Public Law

2019 ◽  
pp. 94-127
Author(s):  
Elizabeth Fisher ◽  
Bettina Lange ◽  
Eloise Scotford
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Constitutional Law ◽  
Environmental Law ◽  
Administrative Law ◽  
Public Law ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Aarhus Convention ◽  
Constituent Elements ◽  
Public Decision

This chapter explains the important role that public law, particularly administrative law, plays in environmental law. This role comes about because much of environmental law requires vesting decision-making and regulatory power in the hands of public decision-makers at all levels of government. This chapter begins by providing an overview of the different constituent elements of public law: constitutional law, administrative law, the role of the EU and international law, as well the complexities of this area of law. The chapter then moves on to consider the way in which the different types of interests involved in environmental problems and the need for information and expertise provide challenges for public law. The chapter then provides an overview of four major features of public law that are particularly relevant to environmental lawyers: the Aarhus Convention, accountability mechanisms, judicial review, and human rights.

The views and perceptions of managers on the role of marketing research in decision making

2018 ◽  
Vol 60 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Piotr Tarka
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Marketing Research ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Irrational Thinking ◽  
Analytical Thinking ◽  
Making Choices ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Specific Factors ◽  
Views And Perceptions

In this article, the author conducts an empirical diagnosis of managers’ views and perceptions in the context of use of information obtained from marketing research in decision-making processes. It is argued that decision makers who take charge of management, despite their strong declarations and beliefs about the potential and usefulness of information in decisions, in reality prefer solutions based on intuition and irrational thinking. Therefore, the objective of the conducted study is to explore mechanisms of such paradoxes. However, through empirical research, the author endeavored to find the answers associated with the specific factors that are likely to favor such an unreasonable thinking and activities undertaken by managers in decision-making processes. Based on the sample ( N = 213), which contained mainly information users, it was confirmed that managers, faced with a difficulty of information processing (e.g., due to information overloading problems and requirements of analytical thinking), or narrow cognitive capacities, limited memory, and strong reliance on personal experience, look for much simpler solutions in decision making. They preferably move toward the irrational sphere of making choices. Thus, the information, obtained from research, that is available to managers is rather neglected instead of being closely inspected (scrutinized). Moreover, the greater the surprise in information derived from marketing research (i.e., the wider is the discrepancy between the value of information provided by analysts and managers’ expectations), the greater their inclination to reject any information and much greater exposure toward irrational thinking in decision making. As a matter of fact, the problems associated with information adaptation in decisions, as well as the problems of analytical thinking, put the question mark over the entire usefulness of information and further deliberate conducting of the marketing research.

Behavioral Decision Theory

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kazuhisa Takemura
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Decision Theory ◽  
Behavioral Economics ◽  
Behavioral Finance ◽  
Utility Theory ◽  
Normative Theory ◽  
Behavioral Decision Theory ◽  
Behavioral Decision ◽  
Descriptive Theory ◽  
Human Decision

Behavioral decision theory is a descriptive psychological theory of human judgment, decision making, and behavior that can be applied to political science. Behavioral decision theory is closely related to behavioral economics and behavioral finance. Behavioral economics is an attempt to understand actual human economic behavior, and behavioral finance studies human behavior in financial markets. Research on people’s decision making represents an important part of these fields, in which various aspects overlap with the scope of behavioral decision theory. Behavioral decision theory focuses on the decision-making phenomena that are broadly divisible into those under certainty, those under risk, and others under uncertainty that includes ambiguity and ignorance. What are the theoretical frameworks that could be used to explain the decision-making phenomenon? Although numerous theories related to decision making have been developed, they are, in essence, often broadly divided into two types: normative theory and descriptive theory. The former is intended to support rational decision making. The latter describes how people actually make decisions. Both normative and descriptive theories reflect the nature of actual human decision making to a degree. Even descriptive theory seeks a certain level of rationality in actual human decision making. Consequently, the two are mutually indistinguishable. Nonetheless, a major example of normative theory is regarded as the system of utility theory that is widely used in economics. A salient example of descriptive theory is behavioral decision theory. Utility theory has numerous variations, such as linear and nonlinear utility theories. Most theories have established axioms and mathematically developed principles. In contrast, behavioral decision theory covers a considerably wide range of variations of theoretical expressions, including theories that have been developed mathematically (such as prospect theory) and those expressed only with natural language (such as multiattribute decision-making process models). Behavioral decision theory has integrated the implications of the normative theory, descriptive theory, and prescriptive theory that help people to make better decisions.

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