Expectations and Realities: Managing the Risks of the "Belt and Road" Initiative

This article aims to explore China's motivations for its "Belt and Road Initiative" which has emerged as China's major policy framework for domestic development and foreign diplomacy. This author argues that China has four basic expectations from the initiative: addressing the perception of the "China threat"; achieving long-term economic benefits; assuaging the grave concern over the threat of American maritime primacy on China's trade and energy lifelines; and rebuilding a world order in favor of China's interests and "predominance." After evaluating the four assumed benefits against the realities, the study argues that both the Chinese leadership and academia have overestimated the potential gains while underestimating the political, economic and security risks of the initiative. Therefore, it is proposed that China should carefully manage its own national image, run projects based on economic rationale, be prudent in its military and strategic involvement, and refrain from eager challenges of the U.S.-led world order.