Can Computers Outperform Humans in Detecting User Zone-Outs? Implications for Intelligent Interfaces

2022 ◽  
Vol 29 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-33
Author(s):  
Nigel Bosch ◽  
Sidney K. D'Mello
Keyword(s):  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Mind Wandering ◽  
High Stakes ◽  
Machine Learning Model ◽  
Improve Accuracy ◽  
Comparable Accuracy ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

The ability to identify whether a user is “zoning out” (mind wandering) from video has many HCI (e.g., distance learning, high-stakes vigilance tasks). However, it remains unknown how well humans can perform this task, how they compare to automatic computerized approaches, and how a fusion of the two might improve accuracy. We analyzed videos of users’ faces and upper bodies recorded 10s prior to self-reported mind wandering (i.e., ground truth) while they engaged in a computerized reading task. We found that a state-of-the-art machine learning model had comparable accuracy to aggregated judgments of nine untrained human observers (area under receiver operating characteristic curve [AUC] = .598 versus .589). A fusion of the two (AUC = .644) outperformed each, presumably because each focused on complementary cues. Furthermore, adding more humans beyond 3–4 observers yielded diminishing returns. We discuss implications of human–computer fusion as a means to improve accuracy in complex tasks.

Serum miR-21 and miR-26a Levels Negatively Correlate with Severity of Cirrhosis in Patients with Chronic Hepatitis B

MicroRNA ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 86-92 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shili Jiang ◽  
Wei Jiang ◽  
Ying Xu ◽  
Xiaoning Wang ◽  
Yongping Mu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Chronic Hepatitis ◽  
Hepatitis B ◽  
Chronic Hepatitis B ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Pugh Class ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Class C ◽  
Circulating Levels

Background and Objective: Accurately evaluating the severity of liver cirrhosis is essential for clinical decision making and disease management. This study aimed to evaluate the value of circulating levels of microRNA (miR)-26a and miR-21 as novel noninvasive biomarkers in detecting severity of cirrhosis in patients with chronic hepatitis B. </P><P> Methods: Thirty patients with clinically diagnosed chronic hepatitis B-related cirrhosis and 30 healthy individuals were selected. The serum levels of miR-26a and miR-21 were quantified by qRT-PCR. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the miRNAs for detecting the severity of cirrhosis. Results: Serum miR-26a and miR-21 levels were found to be significantly downregulated in patients with severe cirrhosis scored at Child-Pugh class C in comparison to healthy controls (miR-26a p<0.01, and miR-21 p<0.001, respectively). The circulating miR-26a and miR-21 levels in patients were positively correlated with serum albumin concentration but negatively correlated with serum total bilirubin concentration and prothrombin time. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis revealed that both serum miR-26a and miR-21 levels were associated with a high diagnostic accuracy for patients with cirrhosis scored at Child-Pugh class C (miR-26a Cut-off fold change at ≤0.4, Sensitivity: 84.62%, Specificity: 89.36%, P<0.0001; miR-21 Cut-off fold change at ≤0.6, Sensitivity: 84.62%, Specificity: 78.72%, P<0.0001). Our results indicate that the circulating levels of miR-26a and miR-21 are closely related to the extent of liver decompensation, and the decreased levels are capable of discriminating patients with cirrhosis at Child-Pugh class C from the whole cirrhosis cases.

A validated novel preoperative index to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology: A cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 30 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 221-228
Author(s):  
Shahab Hajibandeh ◽  
Shahin Hajibandeh ◽  
Nicholas Hobbs ◽  
Jigar Shah ◽  
Matthew Harris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Validation Cohort ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
Emergency Laparotomy ◽  
Contamination Index ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Aims To investigate whether an intraperitoneal contamination index (ICI) derived from combined preoperative levels of C-reactive protein, lactate, neutrophils, lymphocytes and albumin could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology. Methods Patients aged over 18 who underwent emergency laparotomy for acute abdominal pathology between January 2014 and October 2018 were randomly divided into primary and validation cohorts. The proposed intraperitoneal contamination index was calculated for each patient in each cohort. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was performed to determine discrimination of the index and cut-off values of preoperative intraperitoneal contamination index that could predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination. Results Overall, 468 patients were included in this study; 234 in the primary cohort and 234 in the validation cohort. The analyses identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 24.77 and 24.32 as cut-off values for purulent contamination in the primary cohort (area under the curve (AUC): 0.73, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 84%, specificity: 60%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.83, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 91%, specificity: 69%), respectively. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis also identified intraperitoneal contamination index of 33.70 and 33.41 as cut-off values for feculent contamination in the primary cohort (AUC: 0.78, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 87%, specificity: 64%) and validation cohort (AUC: 0.79, P < 0.0001; sensitivity: 86%, specificity: 73%), respectively. Conclusions As a predictive measure which is derived purely from biomarkers, intraperitoneal contamination index may be accurate enough to predict the extent of intraperitoneal contamination in patients with acute abdominal pathology and to facilitate decision-making together with clinical and radiological findings.

scholarly journals Evaluation of factors that predict the success rate of trial of labor after the cesarean section

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yang Mi ◽  
Pengfei Qu ◽  
Na Guo ◽  
Ruimiao Bai ◽  
Jiayi Gao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Cesarean Section ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Success Rate ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Predictive Ability ◽  
Training Set ◽  
History Of ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Abstract Background For most women who have had a previous cesarean section, vaginal birth after cesarean section (VBAC) is a reasonable and safe choice, but which will increase the risk of adverse outcomes such as uterine rupture. In order to reduce the risk, we evaluated the factors that may affect VBAC and and established a model for predicting the success rate of trial of the labor after cesarean section (TOLAC). Methods All patients who gave birth at Northwest Women’s and Children’s Hospital from January 2016 to December 2018, had a history of cesarean section and voluntarily chose the TOLAC were recruited. Among them, 80% of the population was randomly assigned to the training set, while the remaining 20% were assigned to the external validation set. In the training set, univariate and multivariate logistic regression models were used to identify indicators related to successful TOLAC. A nomogram was constructed based on the results of multiple logistic regression analysis, and the selected variables included in the nomogram were used to predict the probability of successfully obtaining TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was used to judge the predictive ability of the model. Results A total of 778 pregnant women were included in this study. Among them, 595 (76.48%) successfully underwent TOLAC, whereas 183 (23.52%) failed and switched to cesarean section. In multi-factor logistic regression, parity = 1, pre-pregnancy BMI < 24 kg/m2, cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery and neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were associated with the success of TOLAC. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the prediction and validation models was 0.815 (95% CI: 0.762–0.854) and 0.730 (95% CI: 0.652–0.808), respectively, indicating that the nomogram prediction model had medium discriminative power. Conclusion The TOLAC was useful to reducing the cesarean section rate. Being primiparous, not overweight or obese, having a cervical score ≥ 5, a history of previous vaginal delivery or neonatal birthweight < 3300 g were protective indicators. In this study, the validated model had an approving predictive ability.

The gut hormone GLP-2 predicts cardiovascular risk in patients with acute myocardial infarction

2020 ◽  
Vol 41 (Supplement_2) ◽  
Author(s):  
F Kahles ◽  
R.W Mertens ◽  
M.V Rueckbeil ◽  
M.C Arrivas ◽  
J Moellmann ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Acute Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Funding Source ◽  
Cardiovascular Prognosis ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Hs Crp

Abstract Background GLP-1 and GLP-2 (glucagon-like peptide-1/2) are gut derived hormones that are co-secreted from intestinal L-cells in response to food intake. While GLP-1 is known to induce postprandial insulin secretion, GLP-2 enhances intestinal nutrient absorption and is clinically used for the treatment of patients with short bowel syndrome. The relevance of the GLP-2 system for cardiovascular disease is unknown. Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive capacity of GLP-2 for cardiovascular prognosis in patients with myocardial infarction. Methods Total GLP-2 levels, NT-proBNP concentrations and the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score were assessed at time of admission in 918 patients with myocardial infarction, among them 597 patients with NSTEMI and 321 with STEMI. The primary composite outcome of the study was the first occurrence of cardiovascular death, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal stroke (3-P-MACE) with a median follow-up of 311 days. Results Kaplan-Meier survival plots (separated by the median of GLP-2 with a cut-off value of 4.4 ng/mL) and univariable cox regression analyses found GLP-2 values to be associated with adverse outcome (logarithmized GLP-2 values HR: 2.87; 95% CI: 1.75–4.68; p&lt;0.0001). Further adjustment for age, sex, smoking, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, diabetes mellitus, family history of cardiovascular disease, hs-Troponin T, NT-proBNP and hs-CRP levels did not affect the association of GLP-2 with poor prognosis (logarithmized GLP-2 values HR: 2.96; 95% CI: 1.38–6.34; p=0.0053). Receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) analyses illustrated that GLP-2 is a strong indicator for cardiovascular events and proved to be comparable to other established risk markers (area under the curve of the combined endpoint at 6 months; GLP-2: 0.72; hs-Troponin: 0.56; NT-proBNP: 0.70; hs-CRP: 0.62). Adjustment of the GRACE risk estimate by GLP-2 increased the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve for the combined triple endpoint after 6 months from 0.70 (GRACE) to 0.75 (GRACE + GLP-2) in NSTEMI patients. Addition of GLP-2 to a model containing GRACE and NT-proBNP led to a further improvement in model performance (increase in AUC from 0.72 for GRACE + NT-proBNP to 0.77 for GRACE + NT-proBNP + GLP-2). Conclusions In patients admitted with acute myocardial infarction, GLP-2 levels are associated with adverse cardiovascular prognosis. This demonstrates a strong yet not appreciated crosstalk between the heart and the gut with relevance for cardiovascular outcome. Future studies are needed to further explore this crosstalk with the possibility of new treatment avenues for cardiovascular disease. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: Public grant(s) – National budget only. Main funding source(s): German Society of Cardiology (DGK), German Research Foundation (DFG)

scholarly journals Predicting Risk of Antenatal Depression and Anxiety Using Multi-Layer Perceptrons and Support Vector Machines

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 199
Author(s):  
Fajar Javed ◽  
Syed Omer Gilani ◽  
Seemab Latif ◽  
Asim Waris ◽  
Mohsin Jamil ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Low Income ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Mental Health Problems ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Antenatal Depression ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Depression And Anxiety ◽  
Gynecology And Obstetrics ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Perinatal depression and anxiety are defined to be the mental health problems a woman faces during pregnancy, around childbirth, and after child delivery. While this often occurs in women and affects all family members including the infant, it can easily go undetected and underdiagnosed. The prevalence rates of antenatal depression and anxiety worldwide, especially in low-income countries, are extremely high. The wide majority suffers from mild to moderate depression with the risk of leading to impaired child–mother relationship and infant health, few women end up taking their own lives. Owing to high costs and non-availability of resources, it is almost impossible to diagnose every pregnant woman for depression/anxiety whereas under-detection can have a lasting impact on mother and child’s health. This work proposes a multi-layer perceptron based neural network (MLP-NN) classifier to predict the risk of depression and anxiety in pregnant women. We trained and evaluated our proposed system on a Pakistani dataset of 500 women in their antenatal period. ReliefF was used for feature selection before classifier training. Evaluation metrics such as accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, precision, F1 score, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the performance of the trained model. Multilayer perceptron and support vector classifier achieved an area under the receiving operating characteristic curve of 88% and 80% for antenatal depression and 85% and 77% for antenatal anxiety, respectively. The system can be used as a facilitator for screening women during their routine visits in the hospital’s gynecology and obstetrics departments.

scholarly journals AB0644 EVALUATION OF MONOCYTE TO HIGH-DENSITY LIPOPROTEIN RATIO AND CAROTID INTIMA MEDIA THICKNESS IN GOUT PATIENTS

2021 ◽  
Vol 80 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 1355.1-1355
Author(s):  
C. Kadiyoran ◽  
A. Kucuk ◽  
H. Aydemir ◽  
A. U. Uslu
Keyword(s):  
High Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Density Lipoprotein ◽  
Intima Media Thickness ◽  
Carotid Intima Media Thickness ◽  
Curve Analysis ◽  
High Density ◽  
Media Thickness ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve

Background:The aim of this study is to investigate, evaluation of monocyte to high density liporotein ratio and carotid intima media thickness in gout patients.Objectives:Gout disease is an autoinflammatory disease caused by the accumulation of monosodium urate crystals (MSU) in tissues and organs due to hyperuricemia (1). It is a common cause of arthritis due to the changes in lifestyle and eating habits. The effects of the inflammatory process and hyperuricemia in gout are not limited to the joints, but are associated with increased atherosclerosis and cardiovascular disease (1,2) Monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio (MHR) is a systemic inflammatory marker and has recently been used quite widely for the evaluation of inflammation in cardiovascular disorders (3,4).Methods:Fourty eight patients who were evaluated in the rheumatology clinic with an arthritis attack and diagnosed with Gout, and 48 healthy individuals whose age, gender and body mass index were matched were included in our study. Basic laboratory and biochemical parameters of the period when gout patients were asymptomatic were examined. Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT), which is a non-invasive procedure due to its widespread use, was used as a marker.Results:MHR and CIMT values were 18.22 ± 9.01 and 0.76 ± 0.11 mm in patients with gout. In the control group, it was 13.62 ± 4.48 and 0.65 ± 0.13 (p = 0.002, p <0.0001, respectively). When evaluated within the study group, it was found that there was a positive correlation between MHR and CIMT (r = 0.253, p = 0.013), and according to linear regression analysis, there was an independent relationship between MHR and CIMT (beta [β] = 0.293, p = 0.049). When assessing Gout patients in the study population, a cutoff value of 13.85 with sensitivity of 66 %, specificity of 53 %, and p = 0.011 (area under curve: 0.650, 95% confidence interval 0.540-0.760), was observed according to receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis (Figure 1).Figure 1.Receiver-operating characteristic curve analysis.Conclusion:This study showed us that MHR can be an inexpensive and easily accessible marker that can be used in the evaluation of atherosclerotic lesions. We think that studies with larger number of patients are needed on this subject.References:[1]Çukurova S, Pamuk ON, Unlu Ercument, Pamuk GE, Cakir NE. Subclinical atherosclerosis in gouty arthritis patients: a comparative study. Rheumatol Int. 2012 Jun; 3 2(6): 1769-73.[2]Choi HK, Curhan G. Independent impact of gout on mortality and risk for coronary heart disease. Circulation 2007 Aug 21; 116 (8): 894-900.[3]McAdams-DeMarco MA, Maynard JW, Coresh J, Baer AN.Anemia and the onset of gout in a population-based cohort of adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study. Arthritis Res Ther. 2012 Aug 20; 14(4): R193.[4]Enhos A, Cosansu K, Huyut MA, Turna F, Karacop E, Bakshaliyev N, Nadir A, Ozdemir R, Uluganyan M. Assessment of the Relationship between Monocyte to High-Density Lipoprotein Ratio and Myocardial Bridge. Arq Bras Cardiol. 2019 Jan;112(1):12-17.Disclosure of Interests:None declared.

A conditional approach for the receiver operating characteristic curve construction to evaluate diagnostic test performance in a family-matched case–control design

2021 ◽  
pp. 096228022199595
Author(s):  
Yalda Zarnegarnia ◽  
Shari Messinger
Keyword(s):  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Case Control ◽  
Paired Data ◽  
Characteristic Curves ◽  
Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Receiver Operating

Receiver operating characteristic curves are widely used in medical research to illustrate biomarker performance in binary classification, particularly with respect to disease or health status. Study designs that include related subjects, such as siblings, usually have common environmental or genetic factors giving rise to correlated biomarker data. The design could be used to improve detection of biomarkers informative of increased risk, allowing initiation of treatment to stop or slow disease progression. Available methods for receiver operating characteristic construction do not take advantage of correlation inherent in this design to improve biomarker performance. This paper will briefly review some developed methods for receiver operating characteristic curve estimation in settings with correlated data from case–control designs and will discuss the limitations of current methods for analyzing correlated familial paired data. An alternative approach using conditional receiver operating characteristic curves will be demonstrated. The proposed approach will use information about correlation among biomarker values, producing conditional receiver operating characteristic curves that evaluate the ability of a biomarker to discriminate between affected and unaffected subjects in a familial paired design.

scholarly journals Prediction of anemia at delivery

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Enav Yefet ◽  
Avishag Yossef ◽  
Zohar Nachum
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Operating Characteristic ◽  
Complete Blood Count ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Area Under The Curve ◽  
Iron Supplement ◽  
Independent Risk Factors ◽  
Operating Characteristic Curve ◽  
Study Database

AbstractWe aimed to assess risk factors for anemia at delivery by conducting a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study database including 1527 women who delivered vaginally ≥ 36 gestational weeks. Anemia (Hemoglobin (Hb) < 10.5 g/dL) was assessed at delivery. A complete blood count results during pregnancy as well as maternal and obstetrical characteristics were collected. The primary endpoint was to determine the Hb cutoff between 24 and 30 gestational weeks that is predictive of anemia at delivery by using the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve. Independent risk factors for anemia at delivery were assessed using stepwise multivariable logistic regression. Hb and infrequent iron supplement treatment were independent risk factors for anemia at delivery (OR 0.3 95%CI [0.2–0.4] and OR 2.4 95%CI [1.2–4.8], respectively; C statistics 83%). Hb 10.6 g/dL was an accurate cutoff to predict anemia at delivery (AUC 80% 95%CI 75–84%; sensitivity 75% and specificity 74%). Iron supplement was beneficial to prevent anemia regardless of Hb value. Altogether, Hb should be routinely tested between 24 and 30 gestational weeks to screen for anemia. A flow chart for anemia screening and treatment during pregnancy is proposed in the manuscript.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02434653.

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