scholarly journals Application of Boosting Regression Trees to Preliminary Cost Estimation in Building Construction Projects

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-9 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yoonseok Shin

Among the recent data mining techniques available, the boosting approach has attracted a great deal of attention because of its effective learning algorithm and strong boundaries in terms of its generalization performance. However, the boosting approach has yet to be used in regression problems within the construction domain, including cost estimations, but has been actively utilized in other domains. Therefore, a boosting regression tree (BRT) is applied to cost estimations at the early stage of a construction project to examine the applicability of the boosting approach to a regression problem within the construction domain. To evaluate the performance of the BRT model, its performance was compared with that of a neural network (NN) model, which has been proven to have a high performance in cost estimation domains. The BRT model has shown results similar to those of NN model using 234 actual cost datasets of a building construction project. In addition, the BRT model can provide additional information such as the importance plot and structure model, which can support estimators in comprehending the decision making process. Consequently, the boosting approach has potential applicability in preliminary cost estimations in a building construction project.

2015 ◽  
Author(s):  
William A. Hockberger

The Quadrimaran was invented in France in the mid-1980s by Daniel Tollet. It was an inspired design and a radical departure from traditional ship design by a man from outside the marine industry unconstrained by industry technical practices and education. Technical experts could see it would entail more structure and subsystems than other high-performance vessels, but its promise was that those penalties would be more than offset by its claimed low power and fuel consumption. A prototype/demonstrator, Alexander, was built in 1990 and operated for five years carrying and impressing many hundreds of riders. Alexander performed beautifully and appeared to bear out what was claimed. Contracts for several Quadrimarans of different sizes came quickly, especially considering how conservative an industry this is. That was significantly due to Tollet's personal charisma and skill in selling riders on the dream of carrying passengers and freight over the water fast and in comfort, yet economically. Great skepticism prevailed in some quarters, especially among naval architects knowledgeable about AMVs (advanced marine vehicles) and early-stage whole-ship design. At technical meetings, one Quadrimaran principal would comment, for example, "Why would you carry freight across the Atlantic at 38 knots on 230,000 horsepower (a reference to the planned Fastship Atlantic TG-770) when you could do it at 60 knots on only 65,000 horsepower?" Listeners would ask how this could be possible, and he would assert again that the Quadrimaran could do it, but would decline to explain. Respected technical people were working with Tollet and his company and becoming convinced of the Quadrimaran's merit. Along with the contracts came engineers with experience in ship detail design and construction (very different from early-stage whole-ship design), or responsibilities for assessing and approving ships for service. Others were with engine and equipment suppliers. Their opinion that there was something unique and special about the Quadrimaran gave it credibility and influenced more people to accept the major claims made for it. Some dismissed the most extreme claims but still accepted the idea that the Quadrimaran was capable of unusually high performance - considerably less than was being claimed, perhaps, but high nevertheless. In hindsight it is clear the skeptics were right. Results never met expectations, nor could they have. In reality, the Quadrimaran has aspects that inherently prevent it from achieving the characteristics and performance its inventor believed attainable. It cannot be built in a commercially useful size and actually perform as intended. Why this is so will be explained. A crucial fact in the Quadrimaran's history is that Daniel Tollet and his close associates believed strongly that naval architects and engineers who had been immersed in working with the existing ship types would be unable to give the Quadrimaran the very different treatment they believed it required. (Their own educations and professional work were nontechnical.) Such people were excluded from the development of Quadrimaran designs, and the belated discovery of many fundamental technical problems can be attributed to this. The company Tollet established had a number of names over the years, and other associated entities were created at times for various purposes. In this paper they are referred to collectively as QIH (Quadrimaran International Holdings) so as not to confuse things unnecessarily. In 2004 QuadTech Marine LLC was established and acquired the Quadrimaran patent (US Patent No. 5,191,849) and related intellectual property from QIH. QuadTech laid out an extensive R&D program to close gaps in the technical background and address identified issues. In the process, additional information on earlier QIH projects and products was obtained and studied, which brought to light problems that significantly compromised the Quadrimaran's prospective performance and utility. The resulting much-reduced set of potential uses and users led the company to effectively stop pursuing Quadrimaran projects after 2009. (Note: The author was Chief Technology Officer for QuadTech Marine during 2006-9, studying the Quadrimaran and planning the R&D.)


2019 ◽  
Vol 2019 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Meseret Getnet Meharie ◽  
Zachary C. Abiero Gariy ◽  
Raphael Ngumbau Ndisya Mutuku ◽  
Wubshet Jekale Mengesha

Accurate cost estimates are vital to the effective realisation of construction projects. Extended knowledge, wide-ranging information, substantial expertise, and continuous improvement are required to attain accurate cost estimation. Cost estimation at the preliminary phase of the project is always a challenge as only limited information is available. Hence, rational selection of input variables for preliminary cost estimation could be imperative. A systematic input variable selection approach for preliminary estimating using an integrated methodology of factor analysis and fuzzy AHP is presented in this paper. First, the factor analysis is used to classify and reduce the input variables and their variable coefficients are determined. Second, fuzzy AHP based on the geometric mean method is employed to determine the weights of input variables in a fuzzy environment where the subjectivity and vagueness are handled with natural language expressions parameterized by triangular fuzzy numbers. Then, the input variables are suggested to be selected starting with those having high coefficient and high importance weight. A set of three variables, one from each group, can be added to the estimating model at a time so that the problem of collinearity can vanish and good accuracy of the estimate can be ensured. The proposed approach enables cost estimators to better understand the complete input variable selection process at the early stage of project development and provide a more accurate, rational, and systematic decision support tool.


Author(s):  
Prof. Amit Kale

Abstract: A construction project of any building is mainly based on 3 important steps that are planning, Cost Estimation of the building and proper execution of construction of the building. Construction cost estimation has the lion’s share of the research effort in construction management. The Objective is to analyze the effectiveness of various cost estimation methods by comparing traditional and various online websites. This study will provide more accurate estimates that save time and minimize errors. The research conducted will be helpful for estimation of construction, also proving how the introduction of IT sector in construction industry is turning out to be beneficial. Keywords: Estimation, Construction Management, Online Websites, minimize errors


2017 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 105
Author(s):  
Bagyo Mulyono ◽  
Paulus Setyo Nugroho

<p class="DRAbstrak">Cost estimation is the art of estimating the amount of cost required for an activity based on available information. The conceptual cost estimate is an early stage in planning a construction project. This estimate provides the cost that must be budgeted for a construction project. Cost conceptual estimates have low accuracy because the time of calculation and available information is limited. This study aims to obtain a conceptual model of the conceptual cost of short-spaced bridges. The method used is the cost index. The cost index is a figure indicating the cost per m2 of bridges at a given time. The required data are contract documents and drawings design that are built in 2012 - 2015 in Banyumas residency area. Span of bridge 4 - 38.8 meters and width of bridge 2 - 7 meters with caisson  foundation. The data were obtained from Dinas Bina Marga and Public Works Agency. The results showed that the conceptual cost model of reinforced concrete bridge with caisson foundation was BJiL = (100.540.56t2-404.528.636,58t + 406.914.286.088,58) x P x W, with t = year, P = span bridge, and W = bridge width. The error value of validation of this model is 2.31%.</p>


2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 8468
Author(s):  
Songyi Lee ◽  
Suwan Chung ◽  
Soonwook Kwon ◽  
Chung-Suk Cho ◽  
Kyuhyup Lee

Currently, BIM implementation in domestic FAB construction projects is in such an early stage that they are benchmarking the BIM implementation method applied in the conventional building sector. As such, in order to enhance the usability of BIM in FAB construction projects, it is necessary to have a correct understanding of FAB construction and to apply BIM in accordance with the characteristics of FAB. This requires defining critical BIM competencies needed by the participants of FAB construction projects in undertaking their tasks as well as identifying their current level of competency possessed. Accordingly, this study defined and presented BIM competencies that reflect the characteristics of FAB through the analysis of typical tasks related to FAB construction projects. For this, project participants from three FAB construction project sites in Korea (where BIM was implemented) were recruited, and a survey was conducted on their status of competency level. Moreover, a comparative analysis was conducted focusing on the correlations between their career characteristics (‘Construction project experience’, ‘BIM-based construction project experience’, ‘FAB construction project experience’, ‘BIM-based FAB construction project experience’ and ‘Overall project experiences’) and their current level of BIM competencies. As a result, high correlations were found between BIM competencies and BIM-based FAB construction project experience for the owner group, whereas competency items related to BIM-based construction project experience showed high correlations for the designer group.


2021 ◽  
Vol 6 ◽  
pp. 159-175
Author(s):  
Nirmal Lawaju ◽  
Nabin Parajuli ◽  
Santosh Kumar Shrestha

Construction labor productivity is the most determinant of success of any construction project. Labor is considered as more variable and unpredictable cost component for the successful accomplishment of construction projects. The main aim of this research is to develop an artificial neural network (ANN) model to predict the production rate for brick masonry work by assessing the various factor affecting labor productivity. Out of forty-four factors selected from a literature review, the top thirteen factors were selected for model development after the questionnaire survey and ranking them based on Relative Importance Index (RII). The model was developed in Neurosolution version 7.1.1.1 using the various input data set collected from active construction site of brick masonry. 65% of data set were used for training, 20 % of data set were used for cross-validation and remaining 15 % of data set were used for testing. The error between actual productivity and estimated productivity was computed using Mean Square Error (MSE) which was 0.019 which verified that the estimated production rate was within an acceptable range. After the successful testing of model, a sensitivity analysis was performed to analyze the order of most influencing factors affecting labor productivity. The developed ANN model can be used for estimating the labor productivity of brick masonry work for any building construction project by incorporating the influence of selected parameters or factors.


2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
I Putu Widyarsana ◽  
N. Martha Jaya ◽  
Gd. Astawa Diputra

Abstract Badung regency in Bali, where the tourism industry is growing very rapidly. Building continues to grow, such as hotels, villas, resorts, hospitals, and so forth. Implementation of building construction projects in Badung not be separated from the issue of costs, quality of execution and completion time of the project. These problems arise due to lack of skills / competencies project manager of the responsibility to integrate and coordinate all available resources for the achievement of project objectives. In this case the role of Project Manager will determine the success of a project. So, there should be a study of the basic capabilities that must be owned by the Project Manager, among others: Conceptual Skills, Technical Skill, and Soft Skills. Data collection is done by the method of observation and surveys. Factor analysis was conducted to identify factors / characteristics Project Manager that affect the quality of the construction project implementation performance. Multiple linear regression analysis determined the relationship of the performance characteristics of the project manager building construction projects in Badung. Factor analysis resulted in the identification of 22 variables that affect the quality of the building construction project implementation performance. Multiple linear regression analysis determines the characteristics of the Project Manager greatest influence on the quality of the building construction project implementation performance is Social Skills aspect of 33.08% compared to the other two aspects, namely the conceptual skills (32.10%) and Technical (9.40%) . The total value of the influence of the three aspects of the characteristics of the project manager of 74.58% means that there are still approximately 25.42% influenced by other factors, such as the state of nature, the environmental situation, location, and so on, the implementation of building construction projects in Badung.


2013 ◽  
Vol 438-439 ◽  
pp. 1637-1640
Author(s):  
Dong Ming Xu ◽  
Kai Wen Yang ◽  
Yi Jun Shi

By analyzing the points of construction process quality control in the building construction project and the relationship among quality control, cost control and schedule control, the main factors affecting the construction process quality control in the building construction project are given out, and a practical system is established. This system includes pre-construction quality planning, quality control, drawings reviewing technical tests, building products quality control, responsibility for quality and other aspects. The practical application of this system in some building construction projects proved its effectiveness in the project quality control.


Author(s):  
Zelalem Mebrate Ejeta ◽  
Zelalem M ◽  
Vignesh Kumar M ◽  
Getnet Tadesse ◽  
Biftu Jaleta

The Construction Industry is embedded with risky situations that affect construction projects and therefore requires systematic processing to achieve project objectives and ensure business sustainability (5). This research work was tries to study the risk management practice on public building construction projects and aims to identify the level that use of risk management practice especially in the public building. The data collection method was a combination of interview and questionnaire. Samples were purposively selected from clients, consultants, and contractors representatives who are now actively participating in public building construction projects. For this study, the data was collected using both primary and secondary sources. Depending on the data that was gathered from the respondent to test the level of awareness, identifying the Risk that affect the performance of public building construction project and major risk management practice on public building construction project are considered and the RII was used to rank the factors. This data was analyzed using SPSS of version 22 to perform descriptive statistics. A total of 75 questionnaires were targeted to be distributed and out of those 50 which is 66.67% are successfully responded. The finding from this study revealed that, about (52%) of the project progress is lagging from the schedule. Regarding the awareness of the risk management, (94%) of the respondents where confirmed that they have awareness of risk management ideologies and they are confident enough to implement their knowledge while, (6%) of them have no concept about the risk management. The top five risks that affect the performance of construction project have been identified and ranked. Accordingly; market condition, unexpected inflation, local taxes, inadequate production of raw materials, and the economic condition of country are the top five identified associated project risks.


Author(s):  
Sayed Mohammad Amin Tabei ◽  
Morteza Bagherpour ◽  
Amin Mahmoudi

Construction project managers are always looking for methods for forecasting future projects and preventing of potential delays in the project. One of the most crucial requirements of construction project managers and financial planners is awareness of project cash flow and financial status. On the other hand, the unique properties of construction projects with uncertainties such as activity duration, the variability of resources, material costs and also ambiguity in the employer’s payments are factors that have an effect on the correct prediction of project cash flow. Hence, the project team should examine project cash flow under uncertainty environment. There are many approaches for considering uncertainty such as fuzzy sets, interval theory, rough and grey system. But the most well-known approach is fuzzy sets which has wide applications in engineering and management. Hence in this paper, we proposed a new method for forecasting project cash flow under fuzzy environment. Finally, the proposed method was applied on an “Engineering, Procurement and Construction” (EPC) project and it is demonstrated that the proposed model has a high performance in the prediction of project cash flow.


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