scholarly journals Fuzzy Clustering-Based Ensemble Approach to Predicting Indian Monsoon

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-12 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moumita Saha ◽  
Pabitra Mitra ◽  
Arun Chakraborty
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Fuzzy Clustering ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Indian Monsoon ◽  
Single Model ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Climatic Event ◽  
Fuzzy Degree ◽  
Degree Of Severity ◽  
Climatic Phenomenon

Indian monsoon is an important climatic phenomenon and a global climatic marker. Both statistical and numerical prediction schemes for Indian monsoon have been widely studied in literature. Statistical schemes are mainly based on regression or neural networks. However, the variability of monsoon is significant over the years and a single model is often inadequate. Meteorologists revise their models on different years based on prevailing global climatic incidents like El-Niño. These indices often have degree of severity associated with them. In this paper, we cluster the monsoon years based on their fuzzy degree of associativity to these climatic event patterns. Next, we develop individual prediction models for the year clusters. A weighted ensemble of these individual models is used to obtain the final forecast. The proposed method performs competitively with existing forecast models.

Bankruptcy Prediction Models: A Bet on Artificial Neural Networks

2012 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 48-50
Author(s):  
Ana Isabel Velasco Fernández ◽  
◽  
Ricardo José Rejas Muslera ◽  
Juan Padilla Fernández-Vega ◽  
María Isabel Cepeda González
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Bankruptcy Prediction ◽  
Artificial Neural

scholarly journals Financial Information Asymmetry: Using Deep Learning Algorithms to Predict Financial Distress

Symmetry ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 443
Author(s):  
Chyan-long Jan
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Information Asymmetry ◽  
Error Rate ◽  
Financial Distress ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
High Accuracy ◽  
Financial Information ◽  
Financial Distress Prediction ◽  
Distress Prediction

Because of the financial information asymmetry, the stakeholders usually do not know a company’s real financial condition until financial distress occurs. Financial distress not only influences a company’s operational sustainability and damages the rights and interests of its stakeholders, it may also harm the national economy and society; hence, it is very important to build high-accuracy financial distress prediction models. The purpose of this study is to build high-accuracy and effective financial distress prediction models by two representative deep learning algorithms: Deep neural networks (DNN) and convolutional neural networks (CNN). In addition, important variables are selected by the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID). In this study, the data of Taiwan’s listed and OTC sample companies are taken from the Taiwan Economic Journal (TEJ) database during the period from 2000 to 2019, including 86 companies in financial distress and 258 not in financial distress, for a total of 344 companies. According to the empirical results, with the important variables selected by CHAID and modeling by CNN, the CHAID-CNN model has the highest financial distress prediction accuracy rate of 94.23%, and the lowest type I error rate and type II error rate, which are 0.96% and 4.81%, respectively.

scholarly journals Enabling deeper learning on big data for materials informatics applications

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dipendra Jha ◽  
Vishu Gupta ◽  
Logan Ward ◽  
Zijiang Yang ◽  
Christopher Wolverton ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Big Data ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Deep Neural Networks ◽  
Materials Science ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Model Performance ◽  
Materials Informatics ◽  
Learning Framework ◽  
Significant Attention

AbstractThe application of machine learning (ML) techniques in materials science has attracted significant attention in recent years, due to their impressive ability to efficiently extract data-driven linkages from various input materials representations to their output properties. While the application of traditional ML techniques has become quite ubiquitous, there have been limited applications of more advanced deep learning (DL) techniques, primarily because big materials datasets are relatively rare. Given the demonstrated potential and advantages of DL and the increasing availability of big materials datasets, it is attractive to go for deeper neural networks in a bid to boost model performance, but in reality, it leads to performance degradation due to the vanishing gradient problem. In this paper, we address the question of how to enable deeper learning for cases where big materials data is available. Here, we present a general deep learning framework based on Individual Residual learning (IRNet) composed of very deep neural networks that can work with any vector-based materials representation as input to build accurate property prediction models. We find that the proposed IRNet models can not only successfully alleviate the vanishing gradient problem and enable deeper learning, but also lead to significantly (up to 47%) better model accuracy as compared to plain deep neural networks and traditional ML techniques for a given input materials representation in the presence of big data.

Beyond Deep Learning: An Econometric Example

2020 ◽  
Vol 28 (Supp01) ◽  
pp. 31-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruofan Liao ◽  
Paravee Maneejuk ◽  
Songsak Sriboonchitta
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Parametric Model ◽  
Parametric Models ◽  
The Past ◽  
Currency Exchange ◽  
Currency Exchange Rate ◽  
Linear And Nonlinear

In the past, in many areas, the best prediction models were linear and nonlinear parametric models. In the last decade, in many application areas, deep learning has shown to lead to more accurate predictions than the parametric models. Deep learning-based predictions are reasonably accurate, but not perfect. How can we achieve better accuracy? To achieve this objective, we propose to combine neural networks with parametric model: namely, to train neural networks not on the original data, but on the differences between the actual data and the predictions of the parametric model. On the example of predicting currency exchange rate, we show that this idea indeed leads to more accurate predictions.

scholarly journals Modelling and Prediction of Monthly Global Irradiation Using Different Prediction Models

Energies ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 2332
Author(s):  
Cecilia Martinez-Castillo ◽  
Gonzalo Astray ◽  
Juan Carlos Mejuto
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Random Forests ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Meteorological Station ◽  
Ann Model ◽  
Global Irradiation ◽  
Artificial Neural ◽  
Input Variables ◽  
Using Data

Different prediction models (multiple linear regression, vector support machines, artificial neural networks and random forests) are applied to model the monthly global irradiation (MGI) from different input variables (latitude, longitude and altitude of meteorological station, month, average temperatures, among others) of different areas of Galicia (Spain). The models were trained, validated and queried using data from three stations, and each best model was checked in two independent stations. The results obtained confirmed that the best methodology is the ANN model which presents the lowest RMSE value in the validation and querying phases 1226 kJ/(m2∙day) and 1136 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively, and predict conveniently for independent stations, 2013 kJ/(m2∙day) and 2094 kJ/(m2∙day), respectively. Given the good results obtained, it is convenient to continue with the design of artificial neural networks applied to the analysis of monthly global irradiation.

Prediction Models for Truck Accidents at Freeway Ramps in Washington State Using Regression and Artificial Intelligence Techniques

1998 ◽  
Vol 1635 (1) ◽  
pp. 30-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wael H. Awad ◽  
Bruce N. Janson
Keyword(s):  
Artificial Intelligence ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Washington State ◽  
Training Data ◽  
Coefficient Of Determination ◽  
Training Process ◽  
Truck Accidents ◽  
High Level

Three different modeling approaches were applied to explain truck accidents at interchanges in Washington State during a 27-month period. Three models were developed for each ramp type including linear regression, neural networks, and a hybrid system using fuzzy logic and neural networks. The study showed that linear regression was able to predict accident frequencies that fell within one standard deviation from the overall mean of the dependent variable. However, the coefficient of determination was very low in all cases. The other two artificial intelligence (AI) approaches showed a high level of performance in identifying different patterns of accidents in the training data and presented a better fit when compared to the regression model. However, the ability of these AI models to predict test data that were not included in the training process showed unsatisfactory results.

scholarly journals Over-parameterisation, a major obstacle to the use of artificial neural networks in hydrology?

2003 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 693-706 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. Gaume ◽  
R. Gosset
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Artificial Neural Networks ◽  
Conceptual Model ◽  
Linear Model ◽  
Case Studies ◽  
Stream Flow ◽  
River Flow ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract. Recently Feed-Forward Artificial Neural Networks (FNN) have been gaining popularity for stream flow forecasting. However, despite the promising results presented in recent papers, their use is questionable. In theory, their “universal approximator‿ property guarantees that, if a sufficient number of neurons is selected, good performance of the models for interpolation purposes can be achieved. But the choice of a more complex model does not ensure a better prediction. Models with many parameters have a high capacity to fit the noise and the particularities of the calibration dataset, at the cost of diminishing their generalisation capacity. In support of the principle of model parsimony, a model selection method based on the validation performance of the models, "traditionally" used in the context of conceptual rainfall-runoff modelling, was adapted to the choice of a FFN structure. This method was applied to two different case studies: river flow prediction based on knowledge of upstream flows, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The predictive powers of the neural networks selected are compared to the results obtained with a linear model and a conceptual model (GR4j). In both case studies, the method leads to the selection of neural network structures with a limited number of neurons in the hidden layer (two or three). Moreover, the validation results of the selected FNN and of the linear model are very close. The conceptual model, specifically dedicated to rainfall-runoff modelling, appears to outperform the other two approaches. These conclusions, drawn on specific case studies using a particular evaluation method, add to the debate on the usefulness of Artificial Neural Networks in hydrology. Keywords: forecasting; stream-flow; rainfall-runoff; Artificial Neural Networks

scholarly journals Prediction of Blended Yarn Evenness and Tensile Properties by Using Artificial Neural Network and Multiple Linear Regression

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. 43-50 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samander Ali Malik ◽  
Assad Farooq ◽  
Thomas Gereke ◽  
Chokri Cherif
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Linear Regression ◽  
Multiple Linear Regression ◽  
Tensile Properties ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Research Work ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Knowledge Domain ◽  
Artificial Neural

Abstract The present research work was carried out to develop the prediction models for blended ring spun yarn evenness and tensile parameters using artificial neural networks (ANNs) and multiple linear regression (MLR). Polyester/cotton blend ratio, twist multiplier, back roller hardness and break draft ratio were used as input parameters to predict yarn evenness in terms of CVm% and yarn tensile properties in terms of tenacity and elongation. Feed forward neural networks with Bayesian regularisation support were successfully trained and tested using the available experimental data. The coefficients of determination of ANN and regression models indicate that there is a strong correlation between the measured and predicted yarn characteristics with an acceptable mean absolute error values. The comparative analysis of two modelling techniques shows that the ANNs perform better than the MLR models. The relative importance of input variables was determined using rank analysis through input saliency test on optimised ANN models and standardised coefficients of regression models. These models are suitable for yarn manufacturers and can be used within the investigated knowledge domain.

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