scholarly journals Airport Arrival Flow Prediction considering Meteorological Factors Based on Deep-Learning Methods

Complexity ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Zhao Yang ◽  
Yifan Wang ◽  
Jie Li ◽  
Liming Liu ◽  
Jiyang Ma ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Flow Prediction ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

This study presents a combined Long Short-Term Memory and Extreme Gradient Boosting (LSTM-XGBoost) method for flight arrival flow prediction at the airport. Correlation analysis is conducted between the historic arrival flow and input features. The XGBoost method is applied to identify the relative importance of various variables. The historic time-series data of airport arrival flow and selected features are taken as input variables, and the subsequent flight arrival flow is the output variable. The model parameters are sequentially updated based on the recently collected data and the new predicting results. It is found that the prediction accuracy is greatly improved by incorporating the meteorological features. The data analysis results indicate that the developed method can characterize well the dynamics of the airport arrival flow, thereby providing satisfactory prediction results. The prediction performance is compared with benchmark methods including backpropagation neural network, LSTM neural network, support vector machine, gradient boosting regression tree, and XGBoost. The results show that the proposed LSTM-XGBoost model outperforms baseline and state-of-the-art neural network models.

Application of Deep Learning for Characterization of Drivers’ Engagement in Secondary Tasks in In-Vehicle Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 2674 (8) ◽  
pp. 429-440
Author(s):  
Osama A. Osman ◽  
Hesham Rakha
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Deep Learning ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Network Models ◽  
Sensor Technology ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Secondary Tasks ◽  
Driving Assistance

Distracted driving (i.e., engaging in secondary tasks) is an epidemic that threatens the lives of thousands every year. Data collected from vehicular sensor technologies and through connectivity provide comprehensive information that, if used to detect driver engagement in secondary tasks, could save thousands of lives and millions of dollars. This study investigates the possibility of achieving this goal using promising deep learning tools. Specifically, two deep neural network models (a multilayer perceptron neural network model and a long short-term memory networks [LSTMN] model) were developed to identify three secondary tasks: cellphone calling, cellphone texting, and conversation with adjacent passengers. The Second Strategic Highway Research Program Naturalistic Driving Study (SHRP 2 NDS) time series data, collected using vehicle sensor technology, were used to train and test the model. The results show excellent performance for the developed models, with a slight improvement for the LSTMN model, with overall classification accuracies ranging between 95 and 96%. Specifically, the models are able to identify the different types of secondary tasks with high accuracies of 100% for calling, 96%–97% for texting, 90%–91% for conversation, and 95%–96% for the normal driving. Based on this performance, the developed models improve on the results of a previous model developed by the author to classify the same three secondary tasks, which had an accuracy of 82%. The model is promising for use in in-vehicle driving assistance technology to report engagement in unlawful tasks or alert drivers to take over control in level 1 and 2 automated vehicles.

scholarly journals A LSTM-RNN-Assisted Vector Tracking Loop for Signal Outage Bridging

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Di Liu ◽  
Qingyuan Xia ◽  
Changhui Jiang ◽  
Chaochen Wang ◽  
Yuming Bo
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Tracking Loop ◽  
Navigation Solution ◽  
Positioning Errors ◽  
Vector Tracking

Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) has been the most popular tool for providing positioning, navigation, and timing (PNT) information. Some methods have been developed for enhancing the GNSS performance in signal challenging environments (urban canyon, dense foliage, signal blockage, multipath, and none-line-of-sight signals). Vector Tracking Loop (VTL) was recognized as the most promising and prospective one among these technologies, since VTL realized mutual aiding between channels. However, momentary signal blockage from part of the tracking channels affected the VTL operation and the navigation solution estimation. Moreover, insufficient available satellites employed would lead to the navigation solution errors diverging quickly over time. Short-time or temporary signal blockage was common in urban areas. Aiming to improve the VTL performance during the signal outage, in this paper, the deep learning method was employed for assisting the VTL navigation solution estimation; more specifically, a Long Short-Term Memory-Recurrent Neural Network (LSTM-RNN) was employed to aid the VTL navigation filter (navigation filter was usually a Kalman filter). LSTM-RNN obtained excellent performance in time-series data processing; therefore, in this paper, the LSTM-RNN was employed to predict the navigation filter innovative sequence values during the signal outage, and then, the predicted innovative values were employed to aid the navigation filter for navigation solution estimation. The LSTM-RNN was well trained while the signal was normal, and the past innovative sequence was employed as the input of the LSTM-RNN. A simulation was designed and conducted based on an open-source Matlab GNSS software receiver; a dynamic trajectory with several temporary signal outages was designed for testing the proposed method. Compared with the conventional VTL, the LSTM-RNN-assisted VTL could keep the horizontal positioning errors within 50 meters during a signal outage. Also, conventional Support Vector Machine (SVM) and radial basis function neural network (RBF-NN) were compared with the LSTM-RNN method; LSTM-RNN-assisted VTL could maintain the positioning errors less than 20 meters during the outages, which demonstrated LSTM-RNN was superior to the SVM and RBF-NN in these applications.

scholarly journals Recurrent Neural Networks Based Photovoltaic Power Forecasting Approach

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (13) ◽  
pp. 2538 ◽  
Author(s):  
Li ◽  
Wang ◽  
Zhang ◽  
Xin ◽  
Liu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Solar Power ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Rbf Neural Network ◽  
Back Propagation ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Forecasting Method

The intermittency of solar energy resources has brought a big challenge for the optimization and planning of a future smart grid. To reduce the intermittency, an accurate prediction of photovoltaic (PV) power generation is very important. Therefore, this paper proposes a new forecasting method based on the recurrent neural network (RNN). At first, the entire solar power time series data is divided into inter-day data and intra-day data. Then, we apply RNN to discover the nonlinear features and invariant structures exhibited in the adjacent days and intra-day data. After that, a new point prediction model is proposed, only by taking the previous PV power data as input without weather information. The forecasting horizons are set from 15 to 90 minutes. The proposed forecasting method is tested by using real solar power in Flanders, Belgium. The classical persistence method (Persistence), back propagation neural network (BPNN), radial basis function (RBF) neural network and support vector machine (SVM), and long short-term memory (LSTM) networks are adopted as benchmarks. Extensive results show that the proposed forecasting method exhibits a good forecasting quality on very short-term forecasting, which demonstrates the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed forecasting model.

Neural Network Techniques for Time Series Prediction: A Review

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Faheem Mushtaq ◽  
Urooj Akram ◽  
Muhammad Aamir ◽  
Haseeb Ali ◽  
Muhammad Zulqarnain
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Neural Networks ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Time Series Prediction ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Prediction Problem ◽  
Neural Network Models ◽  
Physical Time

It is important to predict a time series because many problems that are related to prediction such as health prediction problem, climate change prediction problem and weather prediction problem include a time component. To solve the time series prediction problem various techniques have been developed over many years to enhance the accuracy of forecasting. This paper presents a review of the prediction of physical time series applications using the neural network models. Neural Networks (NN) have appeared as an effective tool for forecasting of time series.  Moreover, to resolve the problems related to time series data, there is a need of network with single layer trainable weights that is Higher Order Neural Network (HONN) which can perform nonlinearity mapping of input-output. So, the developers are focusing on HONN that has been recently considered to develop the input representation spaces broadly. The HONN model has the ability of functional mapping which determined through some time series problems and it shows the more benefits as compared to conventional Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The goal of this research is to present the reader awareness about HONN for physical time series prediction, to highlight some benefits and challenges using HONN.

Prediction and Analysis of Gold Prices using Ensemble Machine Learning Algorithms

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (VI) ◽  
pp. 4367-4374
Author(s):  
Gudipally Chandrashakar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Gold Price ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Average Value ◽  
Ensemble Machine Learning

In this article, we used historical time series data up to the current day gold price. In this study of predicting gold price, we consider few correlating factors like silver price, copper price, standard, and poor’s 500 value, dollar-rupee exchange rate, Dow Jones Industrial Average Value. Considering the prices of every correlating factor and gold price data where dates ranging from 2008 January to 2021 February. Few algorithms of machine learning are used to analyze the time-series data are Random Forest Regression, Support Vector Regressor, Linear Regressor, ExtraTrees Regressor and Gradient boosting Regression. While seeing the results the Extra Tree Regressor algorithm gives the predicted value of gold prices more accurately.

scholarly journals Research on maintenance spare parts requirement prediction based on LSTM recurrent neural network

Open Physics ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 618-627
Author(s):  
Weixing Song ◽  
Jingjing Wu ◽  
Jianshe Kang ◽  
Jun Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Spare Parts ◽  
Performance Comparison ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Generalized Regression Neural Network ◽  
Particle Swarm Algorithm

Abstract The aim of this study was to improve the low accuracy of equipment spare parts requirement predicting, which affects the quality and efficiency of maintenance support, based on the summary and analysis of the existing spare parts requirement predicting research. This article introduces the current latest popular long short-term memory (LSTM) algorithm which has the best effect on time series data processing to equipment spare parts requirement predicting, according to the time series characteristics of spare parts consumption data. A method for predicting the requirement for maintenance spare parts based on the LSTM recurrent neural network is proposed, and the network structure is designed in detail, the realization of network training and network prediction is given. The advantages of particle swarm algorithm are introduced to optimize the network parameters, and actual data of three types of equipment spare parts consumption are used for experiments. The performance comparison of predictive models such as BP neural network, generalized regression neural network, wavelet neural network, and squeeze-and-excitation network prove that the new method is effective and provides an effective method for scientifically predicting the requirement for maintenance spare parts and improving the quality of equipment maintenance.

scholarly journals An Interpretable Early Dynamic Sequential Predictor for Sepsis-Induced Coagulopathy Progression in the Real-World Using Machine Learning

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruixia Cui ◽  
Wenbo Hua ◽  
Kai Qu ◽  
Heran Yang ◽  
Yingmu Tong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Real World ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Time Window ◽  
Medical Center ◽  
Characteristic Curve ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Gradient Boosting ◽  
Early Management ◽  
Extreme Gradient Boosting

Sepsis-associated coagulation dysfunction greatly increases the mortality of sepsis. Irregular clinical time-series data remains a major challenge for AI medical applications. To early detect and manage sepsis-induced coagulopathy (SIC) and sepsis-associated disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC), we developed an interpretable real-time sequential warning model toward real-world irregular data. Eight machine learning models including novel algorithms were devised to detect SIC and sepsis-associated DIC 8n (1 ≤ n ≤ 6) hours prior to its onset. Models were developed on Xi'an Jiaotong University Medical College (XJTUMC) and verified on Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center (BIDMC). A total of 12,154 SIC and 7,878 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) overt-DIC labels were annotated according to the SIC and ISTH overt-DIC scoring systems in train set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) were used as model evaluation metrics. The eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model can predict SIC and sepsis-associated DIC events up to 48 h earlier with an AUROC of 0.929 and 0.910, respectively, and even reached 0.973 and 0.955 at 8 h earlier, achieving the highest performance to date. The novel ODE-RNN model achieved continuous prediction at arbitrary time points, and with an AUROC of 0.962 and 0.936 for SIC and DIC predicted 8 h earlier, respectively. In conclusion, our model can predict the sepsis-associated SIC and DIC onset up to 48 h in advance, which helps maximize the time window for early management by physicians.

scholarly journals Long Short Term Memory Recurrent Network for Standard and Poor’s 500 Index Modelling

2018 ◽  
Vol 7 (4.15) ◽  
pp. 25 ◽  
Author(s):  
Said Jadid Abdulkadir ◽  
Hitham Alhussian ◽  
Muhammad Nazmi ◽  
Asim A Elsheikh
Keyword(s):  
Neural Network ◽  
Time Series ◽  
Recurrent Neural Network ◽  
Time Series Data ◽  
Short Term Memory ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Memory ◽  
Long Short Term Memory

Forecasting time-series data are imperative especially when planning is required through modelling using uncertain knowledge of future events. Recurrent neural network models have been applied in the industry and outperform standard artificial neural networks in forecasting, but fail in long term time-series forecasting due to the vanishing gradient problem. This study offers a robust solution that can be implemented for long-term forecasting using a special architecture of recurrent neural network known as Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model to overcome the vanishing gradient problem. LSTM is specially designed to avoid the long-term dependency problem as their default behavior. Empirical analysis is performed using quantitative forecasting metrics and comparative model performance on the forecasted outputs. An evaluation analysis is performed to validate that the LSTM model provides better forecasted outputs on Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) in terms of error metrics as compared to other forecasting models.  

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