Abstract 18434: Coronary Artery Calcium Progression and Atrial Fibrillation: The Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesley T O'Neal ◽  
Jimmy T Efird ◽  
Waqas T Qureshi ◽  
Joseph Yeboah ◽  
Alvaro Alonso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Chinese Americans ◽  
Ethnic Study ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Study Participants

Introduction: Coronary artery calcium (CAC) measured at a single time point has been associated with an increased risk for atrial fibrillation (AF). It is currently unknown whether CAC progression over time carries a similar risk. Methods: A total of 5,612 study participants (mean age 62 ± 10; 52% women; 39% whites; 27% blacks; 20% Hispanics; 12% Chinese-Americans) from the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) were included in this analysis. Phantom-adjusted Agatston scores for baseline and follow-up measurements were used to compute the change in CAC per year (1 to 100, 101 to 300, and >300 units/year) compared with participants with ≤0 change. The mean time between CT scan for study participants was 2.4 ± 0.84 years. AF was ascertained by review of hospital discharge records and from Medicare claims data through December 31, 2010. Cox regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) for the association between CAC progression and AF and models were adjusted for socio-demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and baseline CAC. Results: At baseline, 2,904 (52%) participants had no evidence of CAC and 2,708 (48%) had CAC values >0. The mean CAC progression for those with baseline CAC was 46.1 ± 85.2 units per year and for those without baseline CAC was 0.84 ± 4.8 units per year. Over a median follow-up of 5.6 years, a total of 203 (3.6%) incident AF cases occurred. Any CAC progression (>0/year) was associated with an increased risk for AF (HR=1.55, 95%CI=1.10, 2.19) and the risk increased with higher levels of CAC progression per year (≤0/year: HR=1.0 [reference]; 1 to 100/year: HR=1.47, 95%CI=1.03, 2.09; 101 to 300/year: HR=1.92, 95%CI=1.15, 3.20; >300/year: HR=3.23, 95%CI=1.48, 7.05). An interaction was observed by age with the association of CAC progression with AF being stronger for younger (<61 years: HR=3.53, 95%CI=1.29, 9.69) compared with older (≥61 years: HR=1.42, 95%CI=0.99, 2.04) participants (p-interaction=0.037). Conclusion: CAC progression during an average of 5-6 years of follow-up is associated with an increased risk for AF. The associated risk is greater in individuals with faster CAC progression.

scholarly journals IL6 trans-signaling associates with ischemic stroke but not with atrial fibrillation

BMC Neurology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Louise Ziegler ◽  
Håkan Wallén ◽  
Sara Aspberg ◽  
Ulf de Faire ◽  
Bruna Gigante
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Ischemic Stroke ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Secondary Analysis ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Inflammatory Processes ◽  
Old Men ◽  
Study Participants

Abstract Background Pro-inflammatory processes underlie ischemic stroke, albeit it is largely unknown if they selectively associate with the risk of atherothrombotic or cardioembolic ischemic stroke. Here we analyze whether pro-inflammatory interleukin (IL) 6 trans-signaling, is associated with the risk of ischemic stroke and underlying atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods During a 20-year follow-up, 203 incident ischemic strokes were recorded from national registers in the cohort of 60-year-old men and women from Stockholm (n = 4232). The risk of ischemic stroke associated with circulating IL6 trans-signaling, assessed by a ratio between the pro-inflammatory binary IL6:sIL6R complex and the inactive ternary IL6:sIL6R:sgp130 complex (B/T ratio), was estimated by Cox regression and expressed as hazard ratio (HR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) in the presence or absence of AF. Risk estimates were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors and anticoagulant treatment. In a secondary analysis, the association of IL6 trans-signaling with the risk of incident AF (n = 279) was analyzed. Results B/T ratio > median was associated with increased risk of ischemic stroke in study participants without AF (adjusted HR 1.49; 95% CI 1.08–2.06), while an association could not be demonstrated in the presence of AF. Moreover, the B/T ratio was not associated with the risk of AF (HR 0.96; 95% CI 0.75–1.24). Conclusions Pro-inflammatory IL6 trans-signaling, estimated by the B/T ratio, is associated with ischemic stroke in individuals without AF. These findings suggest that the B/T ratio could be used to assess the risk of non-AF associated ischemic stroke.

scholarly journals Impact of Mobile Health Devices for the Detection of Atrial Fibrillation: Systematic Review

10.2196/26161 ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. e26161
Author(s):  
Tom E Biersteker ◽  
Martin J Schalij ◽  
Roderick W Treskes
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Systematic Review ◽  
Mobile Health ◽  
Standard Care ◽  
Detection Rate ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Statistical Heterogeneity ◽  
Study Participants

Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common arrhythmia, and its prevalence is increasing. Early diagnosis is important to reduce the risk of stroke. Mobile health (mHealth) devices, such as single-lead electrocardiogram (ECG) devices, have been introduced to the worldwide consumer market over the past decade. Recent studies have assessed the usability of these devices for detection of AF, but it remains unclear if the use of mHealth devices leads to a higher AF detection rate. Objective The goal of the research was to conduct a systematic review of the diagnostic detection rate of AF by mHealth devices compared with traditional outpatient follow-up. Study participants were aged 16 years or older and had an increased risk for an arrhythmia and an indication for ECG follow-up—for instance, after catheter ablation or presentation to the emergency department with palpitations or (near) syncope. The intervention was the use of an mHealth device, defined as a novel device for the diagnosis of rhythm disturbances, either a handheld electronic device or a patch-like device worn on the patient’s chest. Control was standard (traditional) outpatient care, defined as follow-up via general practitioner or regular outpatient clinic visits with a standard 12-lead ECG or Holter monitoring. The main outcome measures were the odds ratio (OR) of AF detection rates. Methods Two reviewers screened the search results, extracted data, and performed a risk of bias assessment. A heterogeneity analysis was performed, forest plot made to summarize the results of the individual studies, and albatross plot made to allow the P values to be interpreted in the context of the study sample size. Results A total of 3384 articles were identified after a database search, and 14 studies with a 4617 study participants were selected. All studies but one showed a higher AF detection rate in the mHealth group compared with the control group (OR 1.00-35.71), with all RCTs showing statistically significant increases of AF detection (OR 1.54-19.16). Statistical heterogeneity between studies was considerable, with a Q of 34.1 and an I2 of 61.9, and therefore it was decided to not pool the results into a meta-analysis. Conclusions Although the results of 13 of 14 studies support the effectiveness of mHealth interventions compared with standard care, study results could not be pooled due to considerable clinical and statistical heterogeneity. However, smartphone-connectable ECG devices provide patients with the ability to document a rhythm disturbance more easily than with standard care, which may increase empowerment and engagement with regard to their illness. Clinicians must beware of overdiagnosis of AF, as it is not yet clear when an mHealth-detected episode of AF must be deemed significant.

P4745Concomitant oral anticoagulant and antidepressant therapy in patients with atrial fibrillation and risk of stroke and bleeding: a population based cohort study

2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
J J Komen ◽  
P Hjemdahl ◽  
A K Mantel - Teeuwisse ◽  
O H Klungel ◽  
B Wettermark ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Propensity Score ◽  
Oral Anticoagulant ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Oral Anticoagulants ◽  
Anticoagulant Treatment ◽  
Oral Anticoagulant Treatment ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Antidepressant Use

Abstract Background Anticoagulation treatment reduces the risk of stroke but increases the risk of bleeding in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. Antidepressants use is associated with increased risk for stroke and bleeds. Objective To assess the association between antidepressant use in AF patients with oral anticoagulants and bleeding and stroke risk. Methods All AF patients newly prescribed with an oral anticoagulant in the Stockholm Healthcare database (n=2.3 million inhabitants) from July 2011 until 2016 were included and followed for one year or shorter if they stopped claiming oral anticoagulant treatment or had an outcome of interest. Outcomes were severe bleeds and strokes, requiring acute hospital care. During follow-up, patients were considered exposed to antidepressant after claiming a prescription for the duration of the prescription. With a time-varying Cox regression, we assessed the association between antidepressant use and strokes and bleeds, adjusting for confounders (i.e., age, sex, comorbidities, comedication, and year of inclusion). In addition, we performed a propensity score matched analysis to test the robustness of our findings. Results Of the 30,595 patients included after claiming a prescription for a NOAC (n=13,506) or warfarin (n=17,089), 4 303 claimed a prescription for an antidepressant during follow-up. A total of 712 severe bleeds and 551 strokes were recorded in the cohort. Concomitant oral anticoagulant and antidepressant use was associated with increased rates of severe bleeds (4.7 vs 2.7 per 100 person-years) compared to oral anticoagulant treatment without antidepressant use (aHR 1.42, 95% CI: 1.12–1.80), but not significantly associated with increased stroke rates (3.5 vs 2.1 per 100 person-years, aHR 1.23, 95% CI: 0.93–1.62). No significant differences were observed between different oral anticoagulant classes (i.e., warfarin or NOAC) or different antidepressant classes (i.e., SSRI, TCA, or other antidepressant). Additional propensity-score matched analyses yielded similar results but showed a significantly increased risk for stroke (HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.08–2.02). Incidence rates of strokes and bleeds Conclusion Concomitant use of an oral anticoagulant and an antidepressant, irrespective of type, is associated with an increased bleeding risk. Increased awareness and a critical consideration for the need of an antidepressant is recommended in this population. Acknowledgement/Funding Swedish Heart Lung Foundation

scholarly journals Associations of recreational and non-recreational physical activity with coronary artery calcium density vs. volume and cardiovascular disease events: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Isac C Thomas ◽  
Michelle L Takemoto ◽  
Nketi I Forbang ◽  
Britta A Larsen ◽  
Erin D Michos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Physical Activity ◽  
Cardiovascular Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Recreational Physical Activity ◽  
Cvd Risk ◽  
Ethnic Study ◽  
Subclinical Marker

Abstract Aims  The benefits of physical activity (PA) on cardiovascular disease (CVD) are well known. However, studies suggest PA is associated with coronary artery calcium (CAC), a subclinical marker of CVD. In this study, we evaluated the associations of self-reported recreational and non-recreational PA with CAC composition and incident CVD events. Prior studies suggest high CAC density may be protective for CVD events. Methods and results  We evaluated 3393 participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis with prevalent CAC. After adjusting for demographics, the highest quintile of recreational PA was associated with 0.07 (95% confidence interval 0.01–0.13) units greater CAC density but was not associated with CAC volume. In contrast, the highest quintile of non-recreational PA was associated with 0.08 (0.02–0.14) units lower CAC density and a trend toward 0.13 (−0.01 to 0.27) log-units higher CAC volume. There were 520 CVD events over a 13.7-year median follow-up. Recreational PA was associated with lower CVD risk (hazard ratio 0.88, 0.79–0.98, per standard deviation), with an effect size that was not changed with adjustment for CAC composition or across levels of prevalent CAC. Conclusion  Recreational PA may be associated with a higher density but not a higher volume of CAC. Non-recreational PA may be associated with lower CAC density, suggesting these forms of PA may not have equivalent associations with this subclinical marker of CVD. While PA may affect the composition of CAC, the associations of PA with CVD risk appear to be independent of CAC.

Abstract P105: Women with Atrial Fibrillation have Increased Risk of Incident Stroke: Insights from a Propensity-Matched Study of the AFFIRM Trial

Circulation ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 125 (suppl_10) ◽  
Author(s):  
Brita Roy ◽  
Ravi V Desai ◽  
Mustafa I Ahmed ◽  
Gregg C Fonarow ◽  
Wilbert S Anorow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Propensity Scores ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Men And Women ◽  
Female Sex ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Comorbidity Burden ◽  
All Cause Mortality ◽  
Baseline Characteristics

Background: Women with atrial fibrillation (AF) have been reported to have poor outcomes. It remains unclear if this association is intrinsic or mediated by the higher comorbidity burden of female AF patients. Therefore, we examined the association between sex and outcomes in a balanced cohort of propensity-matched AF patients who participated in the Atrial Fibrillation Follow-up Investigation of Rhythm Management (AFFIRM) trial. Methods: Of the 4060 AFFIRM patients, 1594 (39%) were women. Propensity scores for female sex were calculated for each of the 4060 patients, and were used to assemble a cohort of 1097 pairs of men and women who were balanced on 51 baseline characteristics, including major cardiovascular (CV) risk factors and medication use, including warfarin. Matched Cox regression models were used to estimate the association between female sex and outcomes during 6 years of follow-up. Results: Patients (n=4060) had a mean (±SD) age of 70 (±8) years and 13% were African American. All-cause mortality occurred in 19% and 15% of matched men and women, respectively (matched HR when women were compared to men, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.69-1.11; p=0.279). All-cause hospitalization occurred in 61% of both men and women (matched HR for women, 1.06; 95% CI, 0.93-1.21; p=0.372). Sex was not associated with CV hospitalization (matched HR for women, 1.13; 95% CI, 0.97-1.32; p=0.111). Ischemic stroke occurred in 3% and 5% of matched men and women, respectively (OR when women were compared to men, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.28-3.18; p=0.002). There was no sex-related difference in major bleeding (7% each). Conclusion: In a cohort of AF patient in which men and women were well-balanced on 51 baseline characteristics including warfarin use, women had increased risk of stroke, but there was no sex-related variation in all-cause mortality or CV hospitalization.

Abstract P85: Are Myocardial Bridges Associated With Increased Risk of Death or Myocardial Infarction?

2011 ◽  
Vol 4 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mouaz H Al-Mallah ◽  
Kamal Kassem ◽  
Owais Khawaja ◽  
Thomas Song ◽  
Chad Poopat ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Myocardial Infarction ◽  
Coronary Artery Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Prognostic Value ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Study Cohort ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Artery Disease

Background: Myocardial bridging (MB) is frequently seen on coronary CT angiography (CCTA). However, there has been conflicting data on the prognostic value of MB. The aim of this analysis is to determine the prognostic value of MB in patients without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) (<50 diameter stenosis). Methods: We included patients with no known prior coronary artery disease (CAD) who underwent CCTA for various clincial reasons. Patients with obstructive CAD on CCTA were excluded. The study cohort was followed for all cause mortality or myocardial infarction (MI) (median follow-up 1.7 years). Group comparisons were made between patients with patients with or without MB. Results: A total of 715 patients were included in this analysis of which 68 patients had MB (10%). 73% of the bridges were in the mid LAD and 22% had bridging in the distal LAD. 48% of the study cohort had normal coronaries, while 52% had evidence of non obstructive CAD. There were no differences in the baseline characteristics, symptomatic status or prevalence of non obstructive CAD between the two groups (all p>0.5). After a median follow-up duration of 1.7 years, 23 patients died and 10 patients experienced myocardial infarction. There were no statistically significant differences in the rate of death/MI between the two groups (figure). Using multivariable Cox regression, the presence of MB was not associated with increased risk for death/MI (Adjusted HR 0.4, 95% confidence interval 0.1 -2.8, p=0.34) Conclusions: In patients with non-obstructive CAD, MB is not associated with increased risk for all cause death or MI.

Abstract P329: Low-carbohydrate Diets and Incidence, Prevalence, and Progression of Coronary Artery Calcium in the Multi-ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (mesa)

Circulation ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 129 (suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tian Hu ◽  
David Jacobs ◽  
Jennifer Nettleton ◽  
Lyn Steffen ◽  
Alain Bertoni ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Relative Risk ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Robust Regression ◽  
Total Carbohydrate ◽  
Carbohydrate Diet ◽  
Low Carbohydrate Diet ◽  
Low Carbohydrate ◽  
The Mean

Background: The coronary artery calcium (CAC) score is associated with the risk of coronary heart disease. We aimed to assess the relationship between low-carbohydrate dietary patterns and CAC scores in the MESA cohort. Methods: Our sample included 5,702 men and women who were free of clinical cardiovascular disease and had food frequency questionnaires at baseline (2000-2002), and at least one measure of CAC during follow-up. We excluded those with implausible energy intake (<600 kcal/day or >6000 kcal/day) or daily physical activity (>24 hours). Two low-carbohydrate-diet (LCD) scores were generated: an overall LCD score was calculated based on total carbohydrate, fat, and protein, and a plant-based LCD score was calculated using intakes of unsaturated fat (excluding trans fat) and vegetable protein. CAC scores at exam 1 and at 2 and 3 (18 and 36 months later) were used in multivariable relative risk regression models to examine the association between LCD scores and CAC prevalence and incidence (binary), while robust regression was used to examine CAC progression (continuous). Analyses were adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular risk factors. Results: The mean age was 62 years, 48% of participants were male, and 40.8% were White. The mean (SD) levels of carbohydrate intake as a percentage of energy were 64.2 (5.2), 56.1 (4.9), 51.5 (3.7), 47.5 (4.0), and 42.1 (5.6) from the lowest to the highest quintiles of the overall LCD score. There were 2,652 (46.5%) participants who had positive CAC scores at baseline and 252 participants who had newly positive scores for CAC during follow-up. Among those with prevalent CAC at baseline, the median (IQR) of increases in CAC was 47 (132) over follow-ups. For incident CAC, relative risk estimates (95% CI) from Quintile 1 to 5 were 1, 0.73 (0.52, 1.02), 0.65 (0.45, 0.95), 0.90 (0.63, 1.28), 1.05 (0.77, 1.42) for overall LCD scores, and were 1, 1.14 (0.81, 1.61), 0.98 (0.71, 1.37), 1.08 (0.78, 1.49), 1.15 (0.82, 1.62) for plant-based LCD scores, respectively. No significant trend was observed for associations with incident CAC. There was no significant association between any LCD score and CAC prevalence or progression among those with positive CAC scores at baseline. Conclusions: A low-carbohydrate diet, including a plant-based low-carbohydrate diet, was not associated with prevalence, incidence, or progression of CAC among those with prevalent CAC at baseline.

Abstract P270: Associations of Lipoprotein-associated Phospholipase A 2 Mass and Activity with Coronary Artery Calcium: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Circulation ◽  
2013 ◽  
Vol 127 (suppl_12) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nancy S Jenny ◽  
Robyn McClelland ◽  
Neal Jorgensen ◽  
Parveen Garg ◽  
Gregory Burke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Cardiac Computed Tomography ◽  
Prevalence Ratio ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
Phospholipase A ◽  
Lipid Lowering ◽  
Agatston Score ◽  
Ethnic Study

Background: Lipoprotein-associated phospholipase A 2 (Lp-PLA 2 ) is an inflammatory enzyme localized in atherosclerotic lesions. However, associations of Lp-PLA 2 with coronary artery calcium (CAC), used as a marker of lesion progression, have not been extensively studied and may vary by sex and type of Lp-PLA 2 assay. Methods: We examined these associations in 5486 White, Black, Chinese and Hispanic men and women in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). At baseline, mean age was 62 years; all were free of clinical cardiovascular disease. CAC, by cardiac computed tomography, was assessed at baseline (2000-02) and follow-up; half the cohort at exam 2 (2002-04), the remainder at exam 3 (2004-05). 2758 had CAC (Agatston score>0) at baseline; of those with no baseline CAC, 372 (13.6%) had incident CAC (CAC>0) at follow-up. Lp-PLA 2 mass and activity were measured by immunoassay and enzymatic assay, respectively. Longitudinal models were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity, smoking, diabetes, obesity, total and HDL cholesterol, blood pressure, hypertension, lipid-lowering medications and time between CAC measures. Results: Each standard deviation (SD 36.5 nmol/min/ml) increase in Lp-PLA 2 activity was associated with CAC presence (prevalence ratio 1.03; p=0.01) in the whole group at baseline and incidence in those with no CAC at baseline (odds ratio 1.17; p=0.02). Activity was not associated with CAC progression (increase in Agatston score over time) in the whole group (β=1.32; p>0.4). Lp-PLA 2 mass was not associated with CAC presence or incidence (SD 45.6 ng/ml; associations p>0.2). The only association that differed significantly by sex was that for mass and progression (p interaction 0.01). Mass was associated with CAC progression in women (β=4.99; p=0.004) but not men (β=-0.20; p>0.9). Conclusions: In this multi-ethnic cohort, associations of Lp-PLA 2 with CAC varied by sex and Lp-PLA 2 assay type. Lp-PLA 2 activity was associated with CAC presence and incidence, but not progression. Mass was associated with CAC progression in women only. Additional research is needed to support the clinical utility of Lp-PLA 2 in monitoring atherosclerosis progression.

Abstract 16212: Warranty Period of Zero Coronary Artery Calcium Score in Asymptomatic Korean Individuals

Circulation ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 132 (suppl_3) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ji-hyun Lee ◽  
Dong-hee Han ◽  
Bríain ó Hartaigh ◽  
Heidi Gransar ◽  
Su-Yeon Choi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Coronary Artery Calcium ◽  
Cox Regression ◽  
Calcium Score ◽  
Cardiac Risk ◽  
Low Risk ◽  
Warranty Period ◽  
Hazard Ratios

Introduction: Zero coronary artery calcium (CAC) is a reliable predictor of absent atherosclerosis and serves as a useful adjunct for identifying those at low risk. Despite this, the “warranty period” that displays the protective value associated with the absence of CAC towards experiencing a cardiovascular event among Asians is not well established. Hypothesis: To examine whether the absence of CAC displays a more favorable warranty period for all-cause death compared with the presence of CAC in a Korean cohort. Methods: A total of 48,215 asymptomatic Koreans (mean age: 54±8.8 years; 25% women) were enrolled and stratified by the absence or presence of CAC. Time to exceeding 1% of cumulative all-cause death was estimated in order to identify low-risk individuals. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for all-cause death were estimated according to prespecified cardiac risk factors and the presence of CAC. Results: In total, 30,605 (63.5%) individuals presented with a zero CAC. Across a median follow-up of 4.4 years (Interquartile range: 2.7-6.6 years), 415 (0.9%) individuals experienced the endpoint of all-cause death. For those with a zero CAC, the time to exceeding 1% risk was found to be 9 years, indicating a substantially longer warranty period compared with participants with a CAC>0 (e.g., 5 year warranty period). The time to exceeding 1% risk tended to decline for individuals on the background of increasing CAC scores. For each of the other prespecified risk factor groups, a zero CAC provided a longer cumulative event free period than in the presence of any CAC. Cox regression analyses also revealed that the absence of CAC was independently associated with a lower risk of all-cause death in each of the respective risk factor groups when compared with CAC>0. Conclusions: In a large cohort of asymptomatic Korean individuals, the absence of CAC evokes a strong protective effect against all-cause death as demonstrated by a longer warranty period.

scholarly journals Predictors and risk model for heart failure hospitalization in atrial fibrillation patients without pre-existing heart failure: the Fushimi AF Registry

2021 ◽  
Vol 42 (Supplement_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Y Hamatani ◽  
M Iguchi ◽  
K Minami ◽  
K Ishigami ◽  
S Ikeda ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Heart Failure ◽  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Coronary Artery Disease ◽  
Heart Disease ◽  
Coronary Artery ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Artery Disease

Abstract Background Atrial fibrillation (AF) increases the risk of hospitalization for heart failure (HF), as well as that of thromboembolism. The strategy for prediction of thromboembolism has been well-established; however, little focus has been placed on the risk stratification for and prevention of HF hospitalization in AF patients. Purpose The aim of this study is to investigate the predictors and risk model of HF hospitalization in non-valvular AF patients without pre-existing HF. Methods The Fushimi AF Registry is a community-based prospective survey of AF patients in Fushimi-ku, Kyoto, Japan. The inclusion criterion of the registry is the documentation of AF at 12-lead electrocardiogram or Holter monitoring at any time, and there are no exclusion criteria. We started to enroll patients from March 2011, and follow-up data were available for 4,472 patients by the end of October 2020. From the registry, we excluded patients without a pre-existing HF (defined as having one of the following; prior hospitalization for HF, New York Heart Association class ≥2, or left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] &lt;40%), and those with valvular AF (mitral stenosis or prosthetic heart valve). Among 3,188 non-valvular AF patients without pre-existing HF, we explored the risk factors for the HF hospitalization during follow-up period. The risk model for predicting HF hospitalization was determined by the cumulative numbers of risk factors which were significant on multivariate analysis. Results The mean age was 72.4±10.8 years, 1197 were female and 1787 were paroxysmal AF. The mean CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were 1.7±1.2 and 2.9±1.6, respectively. During the median follow-up period of 5.1 years, HF hospitalization occurred in 285 (8.9%), corresponding to an annual incidence of 1.8 events per 100 person-years. In multivariable Cox regression analysis, advanced age (≥75 years), valvular heart disease, coronary artery disease, reduced LVEF (&lt;60%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and anemia were independently associated with the higher incidence of HF hospitalization (all P&lt;0.001) (Picture 1). A risk model based on these 6 variables could stratify the incidence of HF hospitalization during follow-up period (log-rank; P&lt;0.001) (Picture 2). Patients with ≥3 risk factors had an 11-fold higher incidence of HF hospitalization compared with those not having any of these risk factors (hazard ratio: 11.3, 95% confidence interval: 7.0–18.4; P&lt;0.001). Conclusions Advanced age, coronary artery disease, valvular heart disease, reduced LVEF, COPD and anemia were independently associated with the risk of HF hospitalization in AF patients without pre-existing HF. There was good prediction for endpoint of HF hospitalization using these 6 variables, providing the opportunities for the implementation of strategies to reduce the incidence of HF among AF patients. FUNDunding Acknowledgement Type of funding sources: None.

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