scholarly journals Are Consumers' Spending Decisions in Line With an Euler Equation?

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lena Dräger ◽  
Giang Nghiem
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Euler Equation ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Equation Model ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
The Future ◽  
Negative Effect ◽  
News Effects

Evaluating a new survey of German consumers, we test whether individual consumption spending decisions are formed according to an Euler equation model. We find that consumers are more likely to increase current spending if they plan to increase spending in the future and if they expect higher inflation. In the subsample of financially literate households, we find an additional negative effect of nominal interest rate expectations. The effects of macroeconomic expectations become stronger if consumers observed news on monetary policy or financial markets. These news effects are particularly pronounced for consumers who save and those with low inflation forecast accuracy.

scholarly journals Existence of Equilibrium for Segmented Markets Models with Interest Rate Monetary Policies

2006 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Filippo Occhino
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Monetary Policies ◽  
Segmented Markets ◽  
Monetary Analysis ◽  
Maximum Value ◽  
Similar Proof

Several studies have recently adopted the segmented markets model as a framework for monetary analysis. The characteristic assumption is that some households never participate in financial markets. This paper proves the existence of an equilibrium for segmented markets models where monetary policy is defined in terms of the short-term nominal interest rate. The model allows us to consider the important cases where monetary policy affects output, and responds to any sources of uncertainty, including output itself. The assumptions required for existence constrain the maximum value and the variability of the nominal interest rate. The period utility function is logarithmic. The proof is constructive, and shows how the model can be solved numerically. A similar proof can be used in the case that monetary policy is defined in terms of the bond supply.

Natural disasters and monetary policy: evidence from an augmented Taylor rule

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Apergis ◽  
James E. Payne
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Natural Disaster ◽  
Taylor Rule ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Policy Response ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the short-run monetary policy response to five different types of natural disasters (geophysical, meteorological, hydrological, climatological and biological) with respect to developed and developing countries, respectively. Design/methodology/approach An augmented Taylor rule monetary policy model is estimated using systems generalized method of moments panel estimation over the period 2000–2018 for a panel of 40 developed and 77 developing countries, respectively. Findings In the case of developed countries, the greatest nominal interest rate response originates from geophysical, meteorological, hydrological and climatological disasters, whereas for developing countries the nominal interest rate response is the greatest for geophysical and meteorological disasters. For both developed and developing countries, the results suggest the monetary authorities will pursue expansionary monetary policies in the short-run to lower nominal interest rates; however, the magnitude of the monetary response varies across the type of natural disaster. Originality/value First, unlike previous studies, which focused on a specific type of natural disaster, this study examines whether the short-run monetary policy response differs across the type of natural disaster. Second, in relation to previous studies, the analysis encompasses a much larger panel data set to include 117 countries differentiated between developed and developing countries.

OPTIMAL MONETARY POLICY FOR THE EMU ACCESSION COUNTRIES. A NEW KEYNESIAN APPROACH

2014 ◽  
Vol 19 (7) ◽  
pp. 1427-1475 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Lipińska
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Optimal Policy ◽  
Nominal Exchange Rate ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Output Gap ◽  
Optimal Monetary Policy ◽  
Accession Countries ◽  
Dynamic Stochastic ◽  
Maastricht Criteria

This paper uses a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of a two-sector small open economy to analyze how the Maastricht criteria modify a fully credible optimal monetary policy in the Economic and Monetary Union accession countries. We show that if the country is not constrained by the criteria, optimal policy should stabilize fluctuations in PPI inflation, in the aggregate output gap, and in the domestic and international terms of trade. The optimal policy constrained permanently by the Maastricht criteria is characterized by reduced variability of the nominal exchange rate, CPI inflation, and the nominal interest rate and by lower optimal targets for CPI inflation and nominal interest rate. This policy results in higher variability and nonzero means for both PPI inflation and output gap, thus leading to additional, but small, welfare costs compared with the unconstrained policy.

scholarly journals MONETARY POLICY AND ENDOGENOUS MARKET STRUCTURE IN A SCHUMPETERIAN ECONOMY

2014 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 1127-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angus C. Chu ◽  
Lei Ji
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Market Structure ◽  
Firm Size ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Endogenous Market Structure ◽  
Number Of Firms

This study develops a monetary Schumpeterian model with endogenous market structure (EMS) to explore the effects of monetary policy on the number of firms, firm size, economic growth, and social welfare. EMS leads to different results from previous studies in which market structure is exogenous. In the short run, a higher nominal interest rate reduces the growth rates of innovation, output, and consumption and decreases firm size through reduction in labor supply. In the long run, a higher nominal interest rate reduces the equilibrium number of firms but has no steady-state effect on economic growth and firm size because of EMS. Although monetary policy has no long-run growth effect, increasing the nominal interest rate permanently reduces the levels of output, consumption, and employment. Taking transition dynamics into account, we find that welfare is decreasing in the nominal interest rate and the Friedman rule is optimal in this economy.

scholarly journals A Neowicksellian in a New Classical World: The Methodology of Michael Woodford's Interest and Prices

2006 ◽  
Vol 28 (2) ◽  
pp. 143-149 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin D. Hoover
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Financial Markets ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Theoretical Orientation ◽  
Central Banks ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Monetary Aggregates ◽  
Classical World ◽  
Interest Rate Rule

Michael Woodford's Interest and Prices: Foundations of a Theory of Monetary Policy (2003) is an important book. Woodford's title is, of course, a conscious revival of Wicksell's own famous work and it points to an effort to recast the analysis of monetary policy as centered on interest rates. I believe that Woodford's theoretical orientation is essentially correct. In repairing to Wicksell, he places the monetary aggregates into a more reasonable perspective, correcting the distortions of the monetarist and Keynesian diversions with respect to money. My money is, so to speak, where my mouth is: My own textbook-in-progress is also based around an IS/interest-rate rule/AS model, in which financial markets cleared by price rather than the LM curve are emphasized. Such an approach, as Woodford notes, has become standard in central banks, but has not yet captured either core undergraduate or graduate textbooks and instruction. My task here, however, was not to praise Woodford's economics nor to trace or evaluate its Wicksellian routes, but to consider Interest and Prices from a methodological point of view.

scholarly journals Monetary policy special features in the context of low interest rates

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 ◽  
pp. 50-64
Author(s):  
Kristina Nesterova ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Price Level ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Target ◽  
Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Policy Rules ◽  
Monetary Rules

Introduction. The paper considers a wide range of monetary policy rules: integral stabilization, NGDP targeting, price level targeting, raising the inflation target, introducing negative nominal interest rates etc. The author also considers discretionary policy used by central banks when the nominal rate is close to zero, such as dramatic preventive cut of the key interest rate and interventions in the open markets with the aim of cutting long-term interest rates. The relevance of this problem is supported by global long-term macroeconomic and demographic factors, such as the dynamics of oil prices and the aging of the population. The aim of the paper is to identify the most effective monetary policy rules in order to reduce the risk of a nominal interest rate falling to zero. Methods. Analysis of the background and the results of general equilibrium models modeling monetary policy is carried out. Analysis of the role of current global trends (based on statistics) in aggravating the problem of declining interest rates. Scientific novelty of the research. The author systematizes the conclusions of modern macroeconomic theory, which offers a number of monetary rules making it possible to reduce the likelihood of falling into the zero bound of interest rate. Results. The effectiveness of monetary rules such as targeting nominal GDP and price levels in preventing the nominal interest rate from falling to zero is shown, primarily due to more efficient public expectations management which is a weak point of discretionary intervention. Conclusions. Under the current global factors for many developed countries and some oil-exporters, the downward trend in nominal rates persists. Combined with slowdown in economic growth, such threat may have negative consequences for the Russian economy. In this case, it seems reasonable to stick to the inflation target above 2% per year and in the future to consider switching to targeting the price level or nominal GDP.

Fisher Effect in Pakistan

1999 ◽  
Vol 38 (2) ◽  
pp. 153-166 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hamid Hasan
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Banking Sector ◽  
Rational Expectation ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Complete Replacement ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fisher Hypothesis ◽  
Savings Rate

This paper attempts to test the validity of the Fisher Hypothesis (FH) in Pakistan by investigating the long-run relationship between interest rate and inflation rate applying cointegration analysis. The FH has serious implications for debtors and creditors in an inflation prone economy since inflationary expectations influence nominal interest rate. Moreover, the effectiveness of monetary policy and efficiency in banking sector has direct bearing on the long-run relationship between nominal interest rate and expected inflation rate. Inflationary expectation has been modeled using adaptive and rational expectation approaches and sensitivity of the result to expectation formation has been compared. The paper finds the long-run relationship between nominal interest rate and inflation rate and accepts the partial Fisher Hypothesis. This result suggests that interest rate does not fully cover or accurately anticipate inflation, which implies that bank deposits deteriorate over time. The result further implies that monetary policy may not be effective in such a situation and households’ savings rate may suffer a decline. The acceptance of partial Fisher Hypothesis in case of rational expectation suggests that the rate of interest does not reflect all relevant information and real interest rate does not exhibit random walk behaviour, which is indicative of inefficiency in banking sector. The analysis clearly shows the failure of interest rate as a hedge against inflation and as a predictor of inflation. Therefore, the paper recommends innovation and financial engineering for better alternative especially in banking. The paper also recommends the growth and encouragement of equity market vis-à-vis prevalent debt-biased market. Finally, the paper advocates the complete replacement of traditional credit-based banking by more efficient trade-based banking in Pakistan.

Monetary Policy and Commercial Bank Lending to the Real Sector in Nigeria: A Time Series Study

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 10-41
Author(s):  
Ogolo . ◽  
Tamunotonye Magnus
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Money Supply ◽  
Commercial Banks ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Real Sector ◽  
Treasury Bill ◽  
The Real ◽  
Negative Effect

This study empirically examined the effects of monetary policy on commercial banks lending to the real sector from 1981 – 2014. The objective was to examine the effectiveness of monetary policy in channeling bank credit to the real sector. Annual time series data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin. Two multiple regression models were specifically estimated with the aid of Software Package for Social Sciences. The study modeled commercial banks credit to agricultural and manufacturing sector as the function of interest rate, monetary policy rate, treasury bill rate, exchange rate, broad money supply and liquidity ratio. The result shows collinearity that corresponds with the Eigen value condition index, and variance constant are less than the required value. The Durbin Watson statistics shows the absence of multiple auto correlation and negative autocorrelation, while the variance inflation factors indicate the absence of auto-correlation. The regression results from model one found that interest rate, monetary policy rate have positive relationship with commercial banks lending to the agricultural sector while Treasury bill rate, exchange rate, broad money supply and liquidity ratio have negative effect on the dependent variable. Model two found that interest rate, Treasury bill rate, exchange rate, broad money supply and liquidity ratio have negative effect on commercial banks lending the manufacturing sector while monetary policy rate have positive relationship with the dependent variable. We recommend that monetary policy should be harmonize with bank lending objectives to enhance commercial banks lending to the real sector of the economy and that management of commercial banks should formulate policies of managing the negative effect of monetary policy variables on its lending.

scholarly journals HUMAN CAPITAL AND INNOVATION IN A MONETARY SCHUMPETERIAN GROWTH MODEL

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (5) ◽  
pp. 1875-1894 ◽  
Author(s):  
Angus C. Chu ◽  
Lei Ning ◽  
Dongming Zhu
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Growth Model ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
Capital Accumulation ◽  
Nominal Interest Rate ◽  
Human Capital Accumulation ◽  
Schumpeterian Growth ◽  
Long Run

This study explores the growth and welfare effects of monetary policy in a scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous human capital accumulation. We model money demand via a cash-in-advance (CIA) constraint on research and development (R&D) investment. Our results can be summarized as follows. We find that an increase in the nominal interest rate leads to a decrease in R&D and human capital investment, which, in turn, reduces the long-run growth rates of technology and output. This result stands in stark contrast to the case of exogenous human capital accumulation in which the long-run growth rates of technology and output are independent of the nominal interest rate. Simulating the transitional dynamics, we find that the additional long-run growth effect under endogenous human capital accumulation amplifies the welfare effect of monetary policy. Decreasing the nominal interest rate from 10% to 0% leads to a welfare gain that is equivalent to a permanent increase in consumption of 2.82% (2.38%) under endogenous (exogenous) human capital accumulation.

scholarly journals Forecast accuracy of a BVAR under alternative specifications of the zero lower bound

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tim Oliver Berg
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Lower Bound ◽  
Forecast Accuracy ◽  
Zero Lower Bound ◽  
Federal Funds ◽  
Federal Funds Rate ◽  
Policy Shocks ◽  
Density Forecasts ◽  
Effect Of Monetary Policy

AbstractThis paper discusses how the forecast accuracy of a Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) is affected by introducing the zero lower bound on the federal funds rate. As a benchmark I adopt a common BVAR specification, including 18 variables, estimated shrinkage, and no nonlinearity. Then I entertain alternative specifications of the zero lower bound. I account for the possibility that the effect of monetary policy on the economy is different in this regime, replace the federal funds rate by its shadow rate, consider a logarithmic transformation, feed in monetary policy shocks, or utilize conditional forecasts allowing for all shocks implemented through a rejection sampler. The latter two are also coupled with interest rate expectations from future contracts. It is shown that the predictive densities of all these specifications are greatly different, suggesting that this modeling choice is not innocuous. The comparison is based on the accuracy of point and density forecasts of major US macroeconomic series during the period 2009:1 to 2014:4. The introduction of the zero lower bound is not beneficial per se, but it depends on how it is done and which series is forecasted. With caution, I recommend the shadow rate specification and the rejection sampler combined with interest rate expectations to deal with the nonlinearity in the policy rate. Since the policy rate will remain low for some time, these findings could prove useful for practical forecasters.

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