“Trump’s First Year in Asia: Accelerating a Long-term Trend”

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Kang
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Year ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Real Possibility ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

What has been the impact of Donald J. Trump’s presidency on the place of the United States in East Asia? Trump already has shown a proclivity for upending the mainstream American consensus about grand strategy to East Asia, with the real possibility of a trade war with China or a shooting war with North Korea on the horizon. However, this article will place President Trump’s first year in office into a larger context of long-term decline of U.S. leadership and influence in East Asia, arguing that this trend has been underway for quite some time, and that Trump has not altered fundamentally this trajectory. Some of Trump’s actions may accelerate a decline in U.S. leadership, but by no means was Trump the first nor will he be the last U.S. president to deal with a swiftly changing East Asia. The region has been changing rapidly for decades, and there are no indications that this will stop anytime soon. However, continuing and gradual U.S. withdrawal from leadership does not mean less American-East Asia interaction. East Asia will remain the most important trading and investment region for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

scholarly journals Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niloufar Nouri ◽  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
Valerie Were ◽  
Reza Khanbilvardi
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Cyclical Variability ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractThe annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The influence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.

DIPHTHERIA IN THE UNITED STATES, 1959-1960

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1962 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-205
Author(s):  
Theodore C. Doege ◽  
Clark W. Heath ◽  
Ida L. Sherman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Past ◽  
Primary Series ◽  
Long Term Trend

Diphtheria attack rates and cases, and to a much lesser extent case-fatality rates, have fallen steadily within the United States during the past 25 years. However, during 1959 and 1960 there was a halt in this long-term trend. Epidemiologic data on 868 clinical cases of diphtheria occurring in 1959 and 873 cases in 1960 were submitted to the Communicable Disease Center by 45 states. The cases and several major outbreaks tended to concentrate in the southern and southwestern states. Attack rates and deaths were highest for children under 10 years, and attack rates were more than five times greater for nonwhite children. Analysis of 1960 immunization data shows that 72% of the patients had received no immunizations. Fifty-five per cent of carriers, but only 18% of persons with bacteriologically confirmed cases, had received a primary series. Only 1 person of 58 fatal cases occurring in 1960 had received a primary series. Certain problems for future investigation, disclosed by the surveillance data, are discussed.

The impact of bovine respiratory disease: the current feedlot experience

2014 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 126-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Engler ◽  
Paul Defoor ◽  
Carter King ◽  
Justin Gleghorn
Keyword(s):  
Respiratory Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Response To Therapy ◽  
Beef Steers ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Cattle Feeding ◽  
Total Death ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractMortality during the finishing phase in beef steers has increased over the last 13 years at a rate of 0.05% per year for cattle fed in Cactus Feeders’ operations. A change in the demographics of placements has also occurred, in that heavier weight cattle are being placed as compared to previous years. Morbidity rates are lower, but higher case fatality rates are observed when compared to years when lighter weight cattle were placed. More lung lesions of varying degree are documented at necropsy of new arrivals and there is greater perception of reduced response to therapy in animals identified with respiratory disease. As placement weights have increased, mortality in the early stages of the feeding period has decreased, resulting in a greater proportion of total death loss later in the period. This shift, in conjunction with an increasing long-term trend of total death loss, can lead to the interpretation of higher ‘late day mortality’. Rather than relying solely on observation and distributions of the data, Cactus Feeders believes that the development of a predictive model is better suited to address the potential of ‘late day mortality’ in confined cattle feeding operations.

scholarly journals Long‐term trend and variability of soil moisture over East Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 120 (17) ◽  
pp. 8658-8670 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shanjun Cheng ◽  
Xiaodan Guan ◽  
Jianping Huang ◽  
Fei Ji ◽  
Ruixia Guo
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

scholarly journals Global Atmospheric Evaporative Demand over Land from 1973 to 2008

2012 ◽  
Vol 25 (23) ◽  
pp. 8353-8361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaicun Wang ◽  
Robert E. Dickinson ◽  
Shunlin Liang
Keyword(s):  
Sunshine Duration ◽  
Water Vapor Pressure ◽  
Evaporative Demand ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Direct Measurements ◽  
Arid And Semiarid Areas ◽  
Water Vapor Pressure Deficit ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract Pan evaporation (EP), an index of atmospheric evaporative demand, has been widely reported to have weakened in the past decades. However, its interpretation remains controversial because EP observations are not globally available and observations of one of its key controls, surface incident solar radiation Rs, are even less available. Using global-distributed Rs from both direct measurements (available through the Global Energy Balance Archive) and derived from sunshine duration, the authors calculated the potential evaporation from 1982 to 2008 from approximately 1300 stations. The findings herein show that the contribution of water vapor pressure deficit (VPD) to monthly variability of EP is much larger than that of other controlling factors, of Rs, wind speed (WS), and air temperature Ta. The trend of the aerodynamic component of EP, which includes contributions of VPD, WS, and Ta, accounted for 86% of the long-term trend of EP. The aerodynamic component was then calculated from 4250 globally distributed stations and showed a negligible averaged trend from 1973 to 2008 because the reduction in WS canceled out the impact of the elevated VPD. The long-term trend of WS dominates the long-term trend of the aerodynamic component of EP at the 4250 stations. Atmospheric evaporative demand increased in most arid and semiarid areas, indicating a decrease in water availability in those areas.

The Victorians, Islam and the Idea of Progress

2019 ◽  
pp. 108-136
Author(s):  
Martin Pugh
Keyword(s):  
Nineteenth Century ◽  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
Industrial Development ◽  
National Character ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Victorian Era ◽  
Self Confidence ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

This chapter assesses Victorian progress, and considers a marked shift in British thinking during the nineteenth century. After the comparative tolerance of the eighteenth century, the Victorian era saw a distinct deterioration in British attitudes towards Islam, culminating in an almost fanatical view of Muslims by the later nineteenth century. While there is a variety of explanations for the long-term trend, the fundamental one lay in the impact of the process of industrialisation that had set in during the late eighteenth century and that had left Britain apparently the world's leading power by the 1850s. Many Victorians convinced themselves that their success was underpinned by something distinctive in the English national character or experience. Even when confronted with the evidence produced by mid-century investigations into widespread poverty, many Victorians retained their self-confidence, arguing that if industrial development continued for another generation it would inevitably generate employment and spread prosperity for all who were able and willing to work.

scholarly journals Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with large-scale educational trend data: a case study using NAEP

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Kaplan ◽  
Mingya Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Trend Data ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractOf critical importance to education policy is monitoring trends in education outcomes over time. In the United States, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has provided long-term trend data since 1970; at the state/jurisdiction level, NAEP has provided long-term trend data since 1996. In addition to the national NAEP, all 50 states and United States jurisdictions participate in the state NAEP assessment. Thus, NAEP provides important monitoring and forecasting information regarding population-level academic performance of relevance to national and international goals. However, an inspection of NAEP trend reports shows that relatively simple trend plots are provided; and although these plots are important for communicating general trend information, we argue that much more useful information can be obtained by adopting a Bayesian probabilistic forecasting point of view. The purpose of this paper is to provide a Bayesian probabilistic forecasting workflow that can be used with large-scale assessment trend data generally, and to demonstrate that workflow with an application to the state NAEP assessments.

Long-term Trend of Planetary Boundary Layer Height in Climate Models and Observations over East Asia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Man Yue ◽  
Minghuai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Heat Flux ◽  
East Asia ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Sensible Heat Flux ◽  
Sensible Heat ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Long Term Trend

<p>Abstract: Planetary boundary layer (PBL) plays an important role in climate and air quality simulations. Large uncertainties remain in understanding the long-term trend of PBL height (PBLH). In this study, radiosonde data and ERA-Interim reanalysis data are applied to reveal the critical climate factors and mechanisms dominating the long-term trend of PBLH over East Asia. Our results show that, observed long-term shift in PBLH trend is found to be consistent with changes in sensible heat flux (SHFLX), net downward surface shortwave flux (SWFLX) and low cloud cover (LCC). Increases in soil moisture and LCC in recent years can modulate the energy partition through the SHFLX and modifying the surface radiation budget, and further lead to the long-term shift trend of PBLH. Long-term trend of PBLH over East Asia is further examined in climate models (including NCAR CESM2) and data from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) experiments. The global climate models are not able to reproduce the long-term trend of PBLH over East Asia. CESM2 is shown to not catch the long-term variability of sensible heat flux and surface shortwave flux. Further analysis is performed to examine how the trend of mean PBLH and extreme low PBLH may be different.</p>

scholarly journals Influences of the variation in inflow to East Asia on surface ozone over Japan during 1996–2005

2011 ◽  
Vol 11 (16) ◽  
pp. 8745-8758 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Chatani ◽  
K. Sudo
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Surface Ozone ◽  
Chemical Transport ◽  
Chemical Transport Model ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
East Asian Region ◽  
Long Term Trend

Abstract. Air quality simulations in which the global chemical transport model CHASER and the regional chemical transport model WRF/chem are coupled have been developed to consider the dynamic transport of chemical species across the boundaries of the domain of the regional chemical transport model. The simulation captures the overall seasonal variations of surface ozone, but overestimates its concentration over Japanese populated areas by approximately 20 ppb from summer to early winter. It is deduced that ozone formation around Northeast China and Japan in summer is overestimated in the simulation. On the other hand, the simulation well reproduces the interannual variability and the long-term trend of observed surface ozone over Japan. Sensitivity experiments have been performed to investigate the influence of the variation in inflow to East Asia on the interannual variability and the long-term trend of surface ozone over Japan during 1996–2005. The inflow defined in this paper includes the recirculation of species with sources within the East Asian region as well as the transport of species with sources out of the East Asian region. Results of sensitivity experiments suggest that inflow to East Asia accounts for approximately 30 % of the increasing trend of surface ozone, whereas it has much less influence on the interannual variability of observed surface ozone compared to meteorological processes within East Asia.

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