scholarly journals Bayesian probabilistic forecasting with large-scale educational trend data: a case study using NAEP

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
David Kaplan ◽  
Mingya Huang
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Trend Data ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractOf critical importance to education policy is monitoring trends in education outcomes over time. In the United States, the National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) has provided long-term trend data since 1970; at the state/jurisdiction level, NAEP has provided long-term trend data since 1996. In addition to the national NAEP, all 50 states and United States jurisdictions participate in the state NAEP assessment. Thus, NAEP provides important monitoring and forecasting information regarding population-level academic performance of relevance to national and international goals. However, an inspection of NAEP trend reports shows that relatively simple trend plots are provided; and although these plots are important for communicating general trend information, we argue that much more useful information can be obtained by adopting a Bayesian probabilistic forecasting point of view. The purpose of this paper is to provide a Bayesian probabilistic forecasting workflow that can be used with large-scale assessment trend data generally, and to demonstrate that workflow with an application to the state NAEP assessments.

scholarly journals Explaining the trends and variability in the United States tornado records using climate teleconnections and shifts in observational practices

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Niloufar Nouri ◽  
Naresh Devineni ◽  
Valerie Were ◽  
Reza Khanbilvardi
Keyword(s):  
Population Density ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
The United States ◽  
Anthropogenic Factors ◽  
Climate Variables ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Cyclical Variability ◽  
Long Term Trend

AbstractThe annual frequency of tornadoes during 1950–2018 across the major tornado-impacted states were examined and modeled using anthropogenic and large-scale climate covariates in a hierarchical Bayesian inference framework. Anthropogenic factors include increases in population density and better detection systems since the mid-1990s. Large-scale climate variables include El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO). The model provides a robust way of estimating the response coefficients by considering pooling of information across groups of states that belong to Tornado Alley, Dixie Alley, and Other States, thereby reducing their uncertainty. The influence of the anthropogenic factors and the large-scale climate variables are modeled in a nested framework to unravel secular trend from cyclical variability. Population density explains the long-term trend in Dixie Alley. The step-increase induced due to the installation of the Doppler Radar systems explains the long-term trend in Tornado Alley. NAO and the interplay between NAO and ENSO explained the interannual to multi-decadal variability in Tornado Alley. PDO and AMO are also contributing to this multi-time scale variability. SOI and AO explain the cyclical variability in Dixie Alley. This improved understanding of the variability and trends in tornadoes should be of immense value to public planners, businesses, and insurance-based risk management agencies.

DIPHTHERIA IN THE UNITED STATES, 1959-1960

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1962 ◽  
Vol 30 (2) ◽  
pp. 194-205
Author(s):  
Theodore C. Doege ◽  
Clark W. Heath ◽  
Ida L. Sherman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Communicable Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The United States ◽  
Surveillance Data ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
The Past ◽  
Primary Series ◽  
Long Term Trend

Diphtheria attack rates and cases, and to a much lesser extent case-fatality rates, have fallen steadily within the United States during the past 25 years. However, during 1959 and 1960 there was a halt in this long-term trend. Epidemiologic data on 868 clinical cases of diphtheria occurring in 1959 and 873 cases in 1960 were submitted to the Communicable Disease Center by 45 states. The cases and several major outbreaks tended to concentrate in the southern and southwestern states. Attack rates and deaths were highest for children under 10 years, and attack rates were more than five times greater for nonwhite children. Analysis of 1960 immunization data shows that 72% of the patients had received no immunizations. Fifty-five per cent of carriers, but only 18% of persons with bacteriologically confirmed cases, had received a primary series. Only 1 person of 58 fatal cases occurring in 1960 had received a primary series. Certain problems for future investigation, disclosed by the surveillance data, are discussed.

Planning or Improvisation

2020 ◽  
pp. 116-120
Author(s):  
Alasdair Roberts
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
The United States ◽  
Unintended Consequences ◽  
Governance Strategies ◽  
The Face ◽  
Imperfect Knowledge

This chapter assesses the role of planning in the design of governance strategies. Enthusiasm for large-scale planning—also known as overall, comprehensive, long-term, economic, or social planning—boomed and collapsed in twentieth century. At the start of that century, progressive reformers seized on planning as the remedy for the United States' social and economic woes. By the end of the twentieth century, enthusiasm for large-scale planning had collapsed. Plans could be made, but they were unlikely to be obeyed, and even if they were obeyed, they were unlikely to work as predicted. The chapter then explains that leaders should make plans while being realistic about the limits of planning. It is necessary to exercise foresight, set priorities, and design policies that seem likely to accomplish those priorities. Simply by doing this, leaders encourage coordination among individuals and businesses, through conversation about goals and tactics. Neither is imperfect knowledge a total barrier to planning. There is no “law” of unintended consequences: it is not inevitable that government actions will produce entirely unexpected results. The more appropriate stance is modesty about what is known and what can be achieved. Plans that launch big schemes on brittle assumptions are more likely to fail. Plans that proceed more tentatively, that allow room for testing, learning, and adjustment, are less likely to collapse in the face of unexpected results.

Ideas and Aspirations

2021 ◽  
pp. 221-239
Author(s):  
Oscar Calvo-Gonzalez
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Technological Progress ◽  
Wide Spectrum ◽  
The United States ◽  
Policy Innovation ◽  
The State ◽  
Policy Entrepreneurs ◽  
New Ideas ◽  
Practical Agenda

This chapter explores how, behind the change in economic policymaking, lies a change in the ideas of the elite. And behind the change in ideas was a relentless scanning of experience outside Spain, especially in Europe. The chapter documents how the technocrats that held increasing power in 1960s Spain consistently sought out new ideas about policymaking from Europe and the United States. They were deliberate policy entrepreneurs. Like their Western European peers, the technocrats considered a responsibility of the state to seek to advance progress for a wide spectrum of society. To pursue this objective, they considered it critical to increase efficiency and put great faith in technological progress. The chapter concludes that what truly stands out of the technocrats is that they were able to implement their practical agenda over a sustained period. There had been previous technocratic efforts to emulate European practices, sometimes from reformers that reached even higher levels of government. A long-term horizon allowed policies to evolve without unnecessary volatility, striking a balance between policy innovation and policy continuity.

“Trump’s First Year in Asia: Accelerating a Long-term Trend”

2018 ◽  
Vol 25 (2) ◽  
pp. 198-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
David C. Kang
Keyword(s):  
East Asia ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Year ◽  
Foreseeable Future ◽  
Real Possibility ◽  
Term Trend ◽  
Trade War ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Trend

What has been the impact of Donald J. Trump’s presidency on the place of the United States in East Asia? Trump already has shown a proclivity for upending the mainstream American consensus about grand strategy to East Asia, with the real possibility of a trade war with China or a shooting war with North Korea on the horizon. However, this article will place President Trump’s first year in office into a larger context of long-term decline of U.S. leadership and influence in East Asia, arguing that this trend has been underway for quite some time, and that Trump has not altered fundamentally this trajectory. Some of Trump’s actions may accelerate a decline in U.S. leadership, but by no means was Trump the first nor will he be the last U.S. president to deal with a swiftly changing East Asia. The region has been changing rapidly for decades, and there are no indications that this will stop anytime soon. However, continuing and gradual U.S. withdrawal from leadership does not mean less American-East Asia interaction. East Asia will remain the most important trading and investment region for the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

scholarly journals Crisis Standards of Care Implementation at the State Level in the United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (6) ◽  
pp. 599-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Colton Margus ◽  
Ritu R. Sarin ◽  
Michael Molloy ◽  
Gregory R. Ciottone
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Pediatric Care ◽  
Standards Of Care ◽  
Institute Of Medicine ◽  
Full Spectrum ◽  
The Us

AbstractIntroduction:In 2009, the Institute of Medicine published guidelines for implementation of Crisis Standards of Care (CSC) at the state level in the United States (US). Based in part on the then concern for H1N1 pandemic, there was a recognized need for additional planning at the state level to maintain health system preparedness and conventional care standards when available resources become scarce. Despite the availability of this framework, in the years since and despite repeated large-scale domestic events, implementation remains mixed.Problem:Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rejuvenates concern for how health systems can maintain quality care when faced with unrelenting burden. This study seeks to outline which states in the US have developed CSC and which areas of care have thus far been addressed.Methods:An online search was conducted for all 50 states in 2015 and again in 2020. For states without CSC plans online, state officials were contacted by email and phone. Public protocols were reviewed to assess for operational implementation capabilities, specifically highlighting guidance on ventilator use, burn management, sequential organ failure assessment (SOFA) score, pediatric standards, and reliance on influenza planning.Results:Thirty-six states in the US were actively developing (17) or had already developed (19) official CSC guidance. Fourteen states had no publicly acknowledged effort. Eleven of the 17 public plans had updated within five years, with a majority addressing ventilator usage (16/17), influenza planning (14/17), and pediatric care (15/17), but substantially fewer addressing care for burn patients (9/17).Conclusion:Many states lacked publicly available guidance on maintaining standards of care during disasters, and many states with specific care guidelines had not sufficiently addressed the full spectrum of hazard to which their health care systems remain vulnerable.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document