scholarly journals The Determinates of Export in Ethiopia, an Auto Regressive Distributive Lag Bound Test Approach

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 20
Author(s):  
Israel Bereket
Keyword(s):  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test

scholarly journals Modeling Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics of Foreign Direct Investment on the Manufacturing Sector Growth in Nigeria: The ARDL Bound Testing Approach

2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (11) ◽  
pp. 128
Author(s):  
Nseabasi Imoh Etukafia ◽  
Ntiedo Bassey Ekpo ◽  
Ikenna Elias Asogwa
Keyword(s):  
Foreign Direct Investment ◽  
Multinational Corporations ◽  
Direct Investment ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Explanatory Variables ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test

This paper econometrically examines the long run and the short run dynamics of foreign direct investment (FDI) on the manufacturing sector growth in Nigeria between the period 1981 and 2015. Data used in this study were obtained from the Central Bank of Nigeria statistical bulletin published in 2016. The econometric methodology adopted was the bound test and auto regressive distributive lag (ARDL) approach to estimate cointegrating relationship as well as short run and long run dynamics of the FDI and other explanatory variables on output growth in the manufacturing sector. Results of the long run behaviour and short run dynamics (error correction model) indicate that economic liberalization is significant in influencing changes in manufacturing output growth. However, FDI has no significant effect in both the short run and the long run episode. Therefore, it is recommended that policies aimed at encouraging increased participation of private domestic investors in collaboration with multinational corporations in the manufacturing sector be crafted.

scholarly journals Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model for long-run US household debt determinants

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 40-48
Author(s):  
Ezelda Swanepoel
Keyword(s):  
Housing Prices ◽  
Household Debt ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Distributed Lag Model ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Consumer Prices ◽  
Lending Rate ◽  
Lag Model ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test

US household debt increased on a yearly basis from 1987 to 2007. In addition, household debt in the USA nearly doubled between 2000 and 2007, from $5.6 trillion to $9 trillion. This came to an abrupt end in 2009 with the crash of the financial market. This paper employs the bound test and Auto-regressive Distributed Lag Model to determine the long-run relationship between US household debt and consumer prices, housing prices, the unemployment rate, and the lending rate. Unit root tests were conducted first to ascertain the stationarity of the variables. E-views 11 was used in the analysis of the data, which was obtained from Q1: 1990 to Q1: 2007 from the International Monetary Fund and the US FED. It was found that in the long run, there is a negative effect of consumer prices and unemployment on US household debt, while house prices and the lending rate would have a positive effect on household debt.

scholarly journals Do Interbank Interest Rates Matter for Stock Prices at Nepal Stock Exchange?

Pravaha ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 165-170
Author(s):  
Rajesh Gurung
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Price ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Bound Test

This study examines an auto-regressive distributed lag (ADRL) modeling approach to develop the relationship between the stock price and interest rate in the context of Nepal, using the monthly data for the period from July 1996 to January 2019. NEPSE Index in Nepal Stock Exchange Limited is used for the stock prices and interbank interest rate released in Quarterly Economic Bulletin of Nepal Rastra Bank is used for the interest rate. The bound test for co-integration and estimated negative coefficient of long-run regression results justified by the Error Correction Mechanisms (ECM) establishes a valid negative long-run association between the INTEREST and PRICE. This suggests important considerations for policies towards an interest rate stabilization for the stock price stability and further development of the stock market in Nepal.

scholarly journals Effects of Bank Credits on the Manufacturing Sector Output in Nigeria (1981-2018)

2020 ◽  
pp. 74-85
Author(s):  
Okere Peter.A ◽  
Okere, Cletus O ◽  
Nwaneto Ugonma
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
Error Correction ◽  
Manufacturing Sector ◽  
Correction Term ◽  
Cointegration Test ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test

This study investigated the effects of bank credits on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria from 1981-2018. The data for this study were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The study adopted the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound cointegration test approach and error correction. In the bound test following the ARDL, it investigated that the variables of interest put in the model are bound together in the long-run and error correction term displayed a negative and statistically significant. The negative value shows that there exists an modification speed from short-run disequilibrium towards the long-run balance. Given the error correction instrument outcome, the study revealed that bank credits exhibited a optimistic and significant relationship with the presentation of manufacturing sector in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that policies geared towards deepening the financial sector and enhancing the healthy and soundness of banks should be vigorously pursued. Also the Central Bank of Nigeria should as a matter of urgency review downwards the lending interest rate in view of this COVID-19 pandemic threatening the whole world.

scholarly journals Impact of Public Infrastructure Investment on Private Infrastructure Investment

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 407-416
Author(s):  
Faisal Nadeem Shah ◽  
Zainab Fatima ◽  
Bilal Bashir
Keyword(s):  
Capital Formation ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Infrastructure Investment ◽  
Public Infrastructure ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Government ◽  
Role Of The Government ◽  
Bound Test

The aim of this paper is to find the relationship among government and private capital formation in Pakistan during the period 1981 to 2018. This study employs Auto Regressive Distributive Lag (ARDL) bound test. The results show that government infrastructure investment negatively effects on private infrastructure capital formation in long run and short run, indicating that government infrastructure investment crowds out private infrastructure investment. In determining the role of the government in investment and liberalization policies, the results of this paper have important policy implications.

scholarly journals Political institutions and economic performance in Ethiopia: an auto regressive distributed lag bound approach to co-integration

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fikadu Abera Garedow
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Economic Performance ◽  
Political Institutions ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Democratic Accountability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Bound Test

PurposeThe main objective of this study is to examine how political institutions affect economic performance in Ethiopia over the 1980–2019 time periods.Design/methodology/approachMainly, the impact of political institution indicators including, level of democracy, political violence, democratic accountability and regime durability have been examined using auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL) bound test approach to co-integration and the error correction model.FindingsThis study confirms that level of democracy and democratic accountability has an adverse long effect on the economic performance of Ethiopia. On the other hand, political violence has a negative short-run causal effect on economic performance in Ethiopia. The study concluded that the deterioration of political institutions harmfully affected economic performance in Ethiopia.Practical implicationsGovernment policymakers should primarily pay attention to promoting and changing those political institutions that harm economic performance. Additionally, better management of political violence has important implications for fostering the economic performance of Ethiopia.Originality/valueOriginality: This study provides some valuable evidence on the nexuses between political institutions and economic performance in Ethiopia. Likely, this is the first investigation on the subject under the consideration to use time analysis and will vigorously contribute to the literature as well by employing the ADRL bound test. Previous studies have examined the impact of the institution on economic growth on a cross-country basis. Further analysis is required to understand the effects of institutions such as level of democracy, political violence and democratic accountability on economic development.

scholarly journals Bank Lending (Credit) Channel of Monetary Transmission Mechanism

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-100
Author(s):  
Quratulain Ezam
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Bank Lending ◽  
Transmission Mechanism ◽  
Monetary Transmission ◽  
Credit Channel ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Auto Regressive ◽  
Bound Test ◽  
Transmission Of Monetary Policy

The significance of channel of bank lending for the process of transmission of monetary policy is examined employing the model of ARDL (Auto-regressive-distributed lag). This recently established bound test is used in order to determine the description of this model. The data that has been used for this research is based on secondary data of 7 years. The results appear constant with the hypothesis that providing by banks with comparatively frail capital responds great, the modification in the stance of monetary policy than providing by improved capitalized banks.

Measuring Effectiveness Of Economic Growth On Reducing Infant Mortality Rate In Tamilnadu

2019 ◽  
Vol 118 (4) ◽  
pp. 129-141
Author(s):  
Mr. Y. EBENEZER
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Infant Mortality ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Infant Mortality Rate ◽  
Domestic Product ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Adf Test ◽  
Bound Test

                   This paper deals with economic growth and infant mortality rate in Tamilnadu. The objects of this paper are to test the relationship between Per capita Net State Domestic Product and infant mortality rate and also to measure the impact of Per capita Net State Domestic Product on infant mortality rate in Tamil Nadu. This analysis has employed the ADF test and ARDL approach. The result of the study shows that IMR got reduced and Per capita Net State Domestic Product increased during the study period. This analysis also revealed that there is a negative relationship between IMR and the economic growth of Tamilnadu. In addition, ARDL bound test result has concluded that per capita Net State Domestic Product of Tamilnadu has long run association with IMR.

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