scholarly journals Application of New Precipitation and Reconstructed Streamflow Products to Streamflow Trend Attribution in Northern Eurasia

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (8) ◽  
pp. 1807-1828 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jennifer C. Adam ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
River Discharge ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Northeastern Siberia ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Streamflow Trends ◽  
Precipitation Trends

Abstract River runoff to the Arctic Ocean has increased over the last century, primarily during the winter and spring and primarily from the major Eurasian rivers. Some recent studies have suggested that the additional runoff is due to increased northward transport of atmospheric moisture (and associated increased precipitation), but other studies show inconsistencies in long-term runoff and precipitation trends, perhaps partly due to biases in the observational datasets. Through trend analysis of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow data, the authors investigate the extent to which Eurasian Arctic river discharge changes are attributable to precipitation and temperature changes as well as to reservoir construction and operation between the years of 1936 and 2000. Two new datasets are applied: a gridded precipitation product, in which the low-frequency variability is constrained to match that of long-term bias-corrected precipitation station data, and a reconstructed streamflow product, in which the effects of reservoirs have been minimized using a physically based reservoir model. It is found that reservoir operations have primarily affected streamflow seasonality, increasing winter discharge and decreasing summer discharge. To understand the influences of climate on streamflow changes, the authors hypothesize three cases that would cause precipitation trends to be inconsistent with streamflow trends: first, for the coldest basins in northeastern Siberia, streamflow should be sensitive to warming primarily as a result of the melting of excess ground ice, and for these basins positive streamflow trends may exceed precipitation trends in magnitude; second, evapotranspiration (ET) in the warmer regions of western Siberia and European Russia is sensitive to warming and increased precipitation, therefore observed precipitation trends may exceed streamflow trends; and third, streamflow from the central Siberian basins should respond to both effects. It is found that, in general, these hypotheses hold true. In the coldest basins, streamflow trends diverged from precipitation trends starting in the 1950s to 1960s, and this divergence accelerated thereafter. In the warmest basins, precipitation trends consistently exceeded streamflow trends, suggesting that increased precipitation contributed to increases in both ET and streamflow. In the central basins, permafrost degradation and ET effects appear to be contributing to long-term streamflow trends in varying degrees for each basin. The results herein suggest that the extent and state of the permafrost underlying a basin is a complicating factor in understanding long-term changes in Eurasian Arctic river discharge.

scholarly journals Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 12133-12184 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Hirdman ◽  
J. F. Burkhart ◽  
H. Sodemann ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
A. Jefferson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport) and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010), this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC) and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008) and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009) at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006) and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008) respectively, while the trend at Barrow is unclear. To reveal the influence of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2%) and sulphate (0.3–5.3%) at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the downward trends. Northern Eurasia (cluster: NE, WNE and ENE) is the dominant emission source at all Arctic stations for both EBC and sulphate during most seasons. In wintertime, there are indications that the EBC emissions from the eastern parts of Northern Eurasia (ENE cluster) have increased over the last decade.

Modelling of long-term permafrost evolution in the discontinuous permafrost zone of North-West Siberia

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ekaterina Ezhova ◽  
Ilmo Kukkonen ◽  
Elli Suhonen ◽  
Olga Ponomareva ◽  
Andrey Gravis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Thermal Conditions ◽  
West Siberia ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
High Porosity ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
North West ◽  
Discontinuous Permafrost

<p>The rate of climate warming in North-West Siberia is among the highest in the world and this trend is especially pronounced in summer [1]. Analysis of permafrost thermal conditions in this area provides plausible scenarios of permafrost degradation also elsewhere. An increase in the summer mean temperature together with the prolongation of the warm season results in the increase of the thawing degree-days enhancing thawing of permafrost. Here we present the results of decadal temperature observations from three boreholes near Nadym, North-West Siberia. We further use the results and the observed cryolithological structure of soils in two boreholes to model the long-term evolution of the deep permafrost under two climate scenarios, RCP2.6 (climate action, fast reduction of CO<sub>2 </sub>emissions) and RCP8.5 (‘business as usual’). Both borehole sites have a topmost high-porosity, high-ice content layer of peat which helps prolonging the degradation. The main difference between the boreholes is snow cover resulting from the difference of borehole positions (one is located on the top of the hill). Our results suggest that under RCP8.5 scenario permafrost will degrade in both boreholes. On the contrary, under RCP2.6 scenario permafrost will degrade in one borehole with the deeper snow cover, where it already shows the signs of degradation. For the other borehole, the model predicts that permafrost will not degrade within the next 300 years, although the permafrost temperatures are eventually above -1°C.</p><p>[1] Frey K.E. & Smith L.C. Recent temperature and precipitation increases in West Siberia and their association with the Arctic Oscillation. Polar Research <strong>22(2)</strong>, 287–300 (2003).</p>

scholarly journals Change in Frozen Soils and Its Effect on Regional Hydrology in the Upper Heihe Basin, on the Northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Gao ◽  
Dawen Yang ◽  
Yue Qin ◽  
Yuhan Wang ◽  
Hongyi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Frozen Ground ◽  
Frozen Soils ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
Hydrological Cycles

Abstract. Frozen ground has an important role in regional hydrological cycles and ecosystems, especially on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which is characterized by high elevation and a dry climate. This study modified a distributed physically based hydrological model and applied it to simulate the long-term (from 1971 to 2013) change of frozen ground and its effect on hydrology in the upper Heihe basin located in the northeastern Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The model was validated carefully against data obtained from multiple ground-based observations. Based on the model simulations, we analyzed the changes of frozen soils and their effects on the hydrology. The results showed that the permafrost area shrank by 9.5 % (approximately 600 km2), especially in areas with elevation between 3500 m and 3900 m. The maximum frozen depth of seasonally frozen ground decreased at a rate of approximately 5.2 cm/10 yr, and the active layer depth over the permafrost increased by about 3.5 cm/10 yr. Runoff increased significantly during cold seasons (November–March) due to the increase in liquid soil moisture caused by rising soil temperature. Areas where permafrost changed into seasonally frozen ground at high elevation showed especially large changes in runoff. Annual runoff increased due to increased precipitation, the base flow increased due to permafrost degradation, and the actual evapotranspiration increased significantly due to increased precipitation and soil warming. The groundwater storage showed an increasing trend, which indicated that the groundwater recharge was enhanced due to the degradation of permafrost in the study area.

scholarly journals Change in Frozen Soils and its Effect on Regional Hydrology in the Upper Heihe Basin, the Northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bing Gao ◽  
Dawen Yang ◽  
Yue Qin ◽  
Yuhan Wang ◽  
Hongyi Li ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tibetan Plateau ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
High Elevation ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Base Flow ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Frozen Ground ◽  
Increasing Trend ◽  
Physically Based

Abstract. Frozen ground has an important role in regional hydrological cycle and ecosystem, especially on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which is characterized by high elevation and a dry climate. This study modified a distributed physically-based hydrological model and applied it to simulate the long-term (from 1961 to 2013) change of frozen ground and its effect on hydrology in the upper Heihe basin located at Northeast Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau. The model was validated carefully against data obtained from multiple ground-based observations. The model results showed that the permafrost area shrank by 9.5 % (approximately 600 km2), especially in areas with elevation between 3500 m and 3900 m. The maximum frozen depth of seasonally frozen ground decreased at a rate of approximately 4.1 cm/10 yr, and the active layer depth over the permafrost increased by about 2.2 cm/10 yr. Runoff increased significantly during cold seasons (November–March) due to the increase in liquid soil moisture caused by rising soil temperature. Areas where permafrost changed into the seasonally frozen ground at high elevation showed especially large changes in runoff. Annual runoff increased due to increased precipitation, the base flow increased due to permafrost degradation, and the actual evapotranspiration increased significantly due to increased precipitation and soil warming. The groundwater storage showed an increasing trend, which indicated that the groundwater recharge was enhanced due to the degradation of permafrost in the study area.

scholarly journals Long-term trends of black carbon and sulphate aerosol in the Arctic: changes in atmospheric transport and source region emissions

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (19) ◽  
pp. 9351-9368 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Hirdman ◽  
J. F. Burkhart ◽  
H. Sodemann ◽  
S. Eckhardt ◽  
A. Jefferson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Black Carbon ◽  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Atmospheric Transport ◽  
Particle Dispersion ◽  
Downward Trend ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Source Regions ◽  
Long Term Trends

Abstract. As a part of the IPY project POLARCAT (Polar Study using Aircraft, Remote Sensing, Surface Measurements and Models, of Climate, Chemistry, Aerosols and Transport) and building on previous work (Hirdman et al., 2010), this paper studies the long-term trends of both atmospheric transport as well as equivalent black carbon (EBC) and sulphate for the three Arctic stations Alert, Barrow and Zeppelin. We find a general downward trend in the measured EBC concentrations at all three stations, with a decrease of −2.1±0.4 ng m−3 yr−1 (for the years 1989–2008) and −1.4±0.8 ng m−3 yr−1 (2002–2009) at Alert and Zeppelin respectively. The decrease at Barrow is, however, not statistically significant. The measured sulphate concentrations show a decreasing trend at Alert and Zeppelin of −15±3 ng m−3 yr−1 (1985–2006) and −1.3±1.2 ng m−3 yr−1 (1990–2008) respectively, while there is no trend detectable at Barrow. To reveal the contribution of different source regions on these trends, we used a cluster analysis of the output of the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART run backward in time from the measurement stations. We have investigated to what extent variations in the atmospheric circulation, expressed as variations in the frequencies of the transport from four source regions with different emission rates, can explain the long-term trends in EBC and sulphate measured at these stations. We find that the long-term trend in the atmospheric circulation can only explain a minor fraction of the overall downward trend seen in the measurements of EBC (0.3–7.2%) and sulphate (0.3–5.3%) at the Arctic stations. The changes in emissions are dominant in explaining the trends. We find that the highest EBC and sulphate concentrations are associated with transport from Northern Eurasia and decreasing emissions in this region drive the downward trends. Northern Eurasia (cluster: NE, WNE and ENE) is the dominant emission source at all Arctic stations for both EBC and sulphate during most seasons. In wintertime, there are indications that the EBC emissions from the eastern parts of Northern Eurasia (ENE cluster) have increased over the last decade.

scholarly journals Baseline data for monitoring geomorphological effects of glacier lake outburst flood: A very high-resolution image and GIS datasets of the distal part of the Zackenberg River, northeast Greenland

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aleksandra M. Tomczyk ◽  
Marek W. Ewertowski
Keyword(s):  
High Resolution ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
High Arctic ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Research Station ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Landscape Changes ◽  
Channel Stability ◽  
Outburst Floods ◽  
Very High

Abstract. The Arctic regions experience intense transformations, such that efficient methods are needed to monitor and understand Arcticlandscape changes in response to climate warming and low-frequency high-magnitude events. One example of such events,capable of causing serious landscape changes, is glacier lake outburst floods. On 6 August 2017, a flood event related to glacial lake outburst affected the Zackenberg River (NE Greenland). Here, we provided a very high-resolution dataset representingunique time-series of data captured immediately before (5 August 2017), during (6 August 2017), and after (8 August 2017)the flood. Our dataset covers a 2.1-km-long distal section of the Zackenberg River. The available files comprise: (1)unprocessed images captured using an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV): https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4495282 (Tomczykand Ewertowski, 2021a); and (2) results of structure-from-motion (SfM) processing (orthomosaics, digital elevation models, and hillshade models in a raster format), uncertainty assessments (precision maps) and effects of geomorphological mappingin vector formats: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4498296 (Tomczyk and Ewertowski, 2021b). Potential applications of thepresented dataset include: (1) assessment and quantification of landscape changes as an immediate result of glacier lakeoutburst flood; (2) long-term monitoring of high-Arctic river valley development (in conjunction with other datasets); (3)establishing a baseline for quantification of geomorphological impacts of future glacier lake outburst floods; (4) assessment of geohazards related to bank erosion and debris flow development (hazards for research station infrastructure – station buildingsand bridge); (5) monitoring of permafrost degradation; and (6) modelling flood impacts on river ecosystem, transport capacity,and channel stability.  

scholarly journals Linking warm Arctic winters, Rossby waves and Cold Spells: an idealized numerical study

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilien Jolly ◽  
Fabio D’Andrea ◽  
Gwendal Rivière ◽  
Sebastien Fromang
Keyword(s):  
Rossby Waves ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Extreme Temperature ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Mean Temperature ◽  
Power Shift ◽  
Low Frequency Variability ◽  
The Mean

AbstractThe changes of midlatitude Rossby waves and cold extreme temperature events (cold spells) during warm Arctic winters are analysed using a dry three-level quasi-geostrophic model on the sphere. Two long-term simulations are compared: the first run has the observed wintertime climatology, while the second run includes the composite of the global anomalies associated with the six hottest Arctic winters. A spectral analysis shows a large increase in wave amplitude for near-zero and westward phase speeds and a more moderate decrease for high eastward phase speeds. The increase in low-frequency variability (periods greater than a week) associated with the power shift to slower waves is largely responsible for an increase in mid-latitude long-lasting cold spells. In mid-latitude regions, in presence of a mean warming, that increase in low-frequency variance compensates the increase of the mean temperature, resulting at places in a frequency of cold spells that remains by and large unaltered. In presence of mean cooling, both the increase in variance and the decrease in the mean temperature participate in an increased frequency of cold spells. Sensitivity experiments show that the power shift to slower waves is mainly due to the tropical anomalies that developed during those particular winters and less importantly to changes in the background flow at higher latitudes associated with the Arctic Amplification pattern.

Diatoms and aquatic palynomorphs in the sediments of the Eurasian Arctic seas and their significance for paleooceanological investigations in the Arctic

2019 ◽  
pp. 246-251
Author(s):  
Yelena I. Polyakova ◽  
Yekaterina I. Novichkova ◽  
Tatiana S. Klyuvitkina ◽  
Elizaveta A. Agafonova ◽  
Irina M. Kryukova
Keyword(s):  
Bering Sea ◽  
Surface Sediments ◽  
Sea Water ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Marginal Filter ◽  
Arctic Seas ◽  
Hydrological Parameters ◽  
The Arctic Ocean ◽  
Long Term Studies

Presented the results of long-term studies of diatoms and aquatic palynomorphs in surface sediments of the Arctic seas and the possibility of their use for the reconstructions of paleocirculation water masses, advection of Atlantic and Bering sea water into the Arctic ocean, changes in the river runoff to the seas, sedimentary processes in the marginal filter of the largest rivers, seasonal sea ice cover and other hydrological parameters.

MONITORING OF THE THERMOABRASIONAL AND ACCUMULATIVE COASTS NEAR THE UNDERWATER GAS PIPELINE ROUTE ACROSS THE BAYDARATSKAYA BAY, KARA SEA

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nataliya Belova ◽  
Nataliya Belova ◽  
Alisa Baranskaya ◽  
Alisa Baranskaya ◽  
Osip Kokin ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Thermal Regime ◽  
Storm Surges ◽  
Gas Pipeline ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Yamal Peninsula ◽  
Permafrost Degradation ◽  
Nearshore Zone ◽  
Barrier Beach ◽  
Energy Dissipater ◽  
Pipeline Route

The coasts of Baydaratskaya Bay are composed by loose frozen sediments. At Yamal Peninsula accumulative coasts are predominant at the site where pipeline crosses the coast, while thermoabrasional coast are prevail at the Ural coast crossing site. Coastal dynamics monitoring on both sites is conducted using field and remote methods starting from the end of 1980s. As a result of construction in the coastal zone the relief morphology was disturbed, both lithodynamics and thermal regime of the permafrost within the areas of several km around the sites where gas pipeline crosses coastline was changed. At Yamal coast massive removal of deposits from the beach and tideflat took place. The morphology of barrier beach, which previously was a natural wave energy dissipater, was disturbed. This promoted inland penetration of storm surges and permafrost degradation under the barrier beach. At Ural coast the topsoil was disrupted by construction trucks, which affected thermal regime of the upper part of permafrost and lead to active layer deepening. Thermoerosion and thermoabrasion processes have activated on coasts, especially at areas with icy sediments, ice wedges and massive ice beds. Construction of cofferdams resulted in overlapping of sediments transit on both coasts and caused sediment deficit on nearby nearshore zone areas. The result of technogenic disturbances was widespread coastal erosion activation, which catastrophic scale is facilitated by climate warming in the Arctic.

Trends and Prospects of Development of the Oil and Gas Sector in the Context of Digitalization

2020 ◽  
Vol 26 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-45 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. G. Kazanin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Digital Technologies ◽  
Oil And Gas Industry ◽  
Global Market ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Business And Society ◽  
Gas Industry ◽  
Exploration And Production ◽  
Oil And Gas Sector

The modern oil and gas industry is heavily dependent on the processes and trends driven by the accelerating digitalization of the economy. Thus, the digitalization of the oil and gas sector has become Russia’s top priority, which involves a technological and structural transformation of all production processes and stages.Aim. The presented study aims to identify the major trends and prospects of development of the Russian oil and gas sector in the context of its digitalization and formation of the digital economy.Tasks. The authors analyze the major trends in the development of the oil and gas industry at a global scale and in Russia with allowance for the prospects of accelerated exploration of the Arctic; determine the best practices of implementation of digital technologies by oil and gas companies as well as the prospects and obstacles for the subsequent transfer of digital technologies to the Russian oil and gas industry.Methods. This study uses general scientific methods, such as analysis, synthesis, and scientific generalization.Results. Arctic hydrocarbons will become increasingly important to Russia in the long term, and their exploration and production will require the implementation of innovative technologies. Priority directions for the development of many oil and gas producers will include active application of digital technologies as a whole (different types of robots that could replace people in performing complex procedures), processing and analysis of big data using artificial intelligence to optimize processes, particularly in the field of exploration and production, processing and transportation. Digitalization of the oil and gas sector is a powerful factor in the improvement of the efficiency of the Russian economy. However, Russian companies are notably lagging behind in this field of innovative development and there are problems and high risks that need to be overcome to realize its potential for business and society.Conclusions. Given the strategic importance of the oil and gas industry for Russia, its sustainable development and national security, it is recommendable to focus on the development and implementation of digital technologies. This is crucial for the digitalization of long-term projection and strategic planning, assessment of the role and place of Russia and its largest energy companies in the global market with allowance for a maximum number of different internal and external factors.

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