scholarly journals Understanding Recent Stratospheric Climate Change

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 1934-1943 ◽  
Author(s):  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Susan Solomon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Global Mean

Abstract The long-term, global-mean cooling of the lower stratosphere stems from two downward steps in temperature, both of which are coincident with the cessation of transient warming after the volcanic eruptions of El Chichón and Mount Pinatubo. Previous attribution studies reveal that the long-term cooling is linked to ozone trends, and modeling studies driven by a range of known forcings suggest that the steps reflect the superposition of the long-term cooling with transient variability in upwelling longwave radiation from the troposphere. However, the long-term cooling of the lower stratosphere is evident at all latitudes despite the fact that chemical ozone losses are thought to be greatest at middle and polar latitudes. Further, the ozone concentrations used in such studies are based on either 1) smooth mathematical functions fit to sparsely sampled observations that are unavailable during postvolcanic periods or 2) calculations by a coupled chemistry–climate model. Here the authors provide observational analyses that yield new insight into three key aspects of recent stratospheric climate change. First, evidence is provided that shows the unusual steplike behavior of global-mean stratospheric temperatures is dependent not only upon the trend but also on the temporal variability in global-mean ozone immediately following volcanic eruptions. Second, the authors argue that the warming/cooling pattern in global-mean temperatures following major volcanic eruptions is consistent with the competing radiative and chemical effects of volcanic eruptions on stratospheric temperature and ozone. Third, it is revealed that the contrasting latitudinal structures of recent stratospheric temperature and ozone trends are consistent with large-scale increases in the stratospheric overturning Brewer–Dobson circulation.

scholarly journals Space-based geoengineering: Challenges and requirements

2009 ◽  
Vol 224 (3) ◽  
pp. 571-580 ◽  
Author(s):  
C R McInnes
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Carbon Dioxide ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Carbon Dioxide Concentration ◽  
Complex Solution ◽  
Lagrange Point ◽  
Simple Climate Model ◽  
Earth’S Climate

The prospect of engineering the Earth's climate (geoengineering) raises a multitude of issues associated with climatology, engineering on macroscopic scales, and indeed the ethics of such ventures. Depending on personal views, such large-scale engineering is either an obvious necessity for the deep future, or yet another example of human conceit. In this article a simple climate model will be used to estimate requirements for engineering the Earth's climate, principally using space-based geoengineering. Active cooling of the climate to mitigate anthropogenic climate change due to a doubling of the carbon dioxide concentration in the Earth's atmosphere is considered. This representative scenario will allow the scale of the engineering challenge to be determined. It will be argued that simple occulting discs at the interior Lagrange point may represent a less complex solution than concepts for highly engineered refracting discs proposed recently. While engineering on macroscopic scales can appear formidable, emerging capabilities may allow such ventures to be seriously considered in the long term. This article is not an exhaustive review of geoengineering, but aims to provide a foretaste of the future opportunities, challenges, and requirements for space-based geoengineering ventures.

scholarly journals On the Role of Radiative Processes in Stratosphere–Troposphere Coupling

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (15) ◽  
pp. 4154-4161 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin M. Grise ◽  
David W. J. Thompson ◽  
Piers M. Forster
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Tropospheric Temperature ◽  
Radiative Processes ◽  
Ozone Trends ◽  
Radiation Induced ◽  
Polar Stratosphere

Abstract Climate change in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) polar stratosphere is associated with substantial changes in the atmospheric circulation that extend to the earth’s surface. The mechanisms that drive the changes in the SH troposphere are not fully understood, but most previous hypotheses have focused on the role of atmospheric dynamics rather than that of radiation. This study quantifies the radiative response of temperatures in the SH polar troposphere to the forcing from long-term temperature and ozone trends in the SH polar stratosphere. A novel methodology is employed that explicitly neglects changes in tropospheric dynamics and hence isolates the component of the tropospheric temperature response that is radiatively driven by the overlying stratospheric trends. The results reveal that both the amplitude and seasonality of the observed cooling of the middle and upper SH polar troposphere over the past few decades are consistent with a reduction in downwelling longwave radiation induced by cooling in the SH polar stratosphere. The results are compared with analogous calculations for trends in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) polar stratosphere. Both the observations and radiative calculations imply that the comparatively weak trends in the NH polar stratosphere have not played a central role in driving NH tropospheric climate change. Overall, the results suggest that radiative processes play a key role in coupling the large trends in SH polar stratospheric temperatures to tropospheric levels. The tropospheric radiative temperature response documented here could be important for triggering the changes in internal tropospheric dynamics associated with stratosphere–troposphere coupling.

Precipitation–Radiation–Circulation Feedback Processes Associated with Structural Changes of the ITCZ in a Warming Climate during 1980–2014: An Observational Portrayal

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (20) ◽  
pp. 8737-8749 ◽  
Author(s):  
William K. M. Lau ◽  
Weichen Tao
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Structural Changes ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Hadley Circulation ◽  
Specific Humidity ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Multiple Sources

AbstractIn this study, long-term structural changes in the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and associated precipitation–radiation–circulation feedback processes are examined using multiple sources of reanalysis data for temperature, winds, moisture, and observed precipitation and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) during 1980–2014. Consistent with CMIP5 climate model projections of the “deep tropical squeeze” under greenhouse warming, this period witnessed a warming and wetting (increased specific humidity) global trend, characterized by a narrowing of the ITCZ core with increased precipitation, coupled to widespread tropospheric drying (deficient relative humidity), increased OLR in the subtropics and midlatitudes, a widening of the descending branches of the Hadley circulation, and a poleward shift of the jet streams in both hemispheres. The widespread tropospheric drying stems from 1) a faster rate of increased saturated water vapor with warming, relative to the increase in ambient moisture due to convective and large-scale transport, and 2) enhanced anomalous subsidence, and low-level moisture divergence in the subtropics and midlatitudes. The long-term trend in enhanced precipitation (latent heating) in the ITCZ core region is strongly coupled to increasing OLR (radiative cooling to space) in the expanding dry zones, particularly over land regions in the subtropics and midlatitudes, arguably as a necessary condition for global thermodynamic energy balance. Analyses of the trend patterns in vertical profiles of p velocity, temperature, and relative humidity with respect to ITCZ precipitation rate and OLR reveal that the contrast between the wet and dry regions in the troposphere has been increasing globally, with the ITCZ core getting wetter and contracting, while the marginal convective and dry zones are getting drier and expanding.

Recent evolution of stratospheric aerosol load from ground-based lidars and satellites: impact of volcanic eruptions and wildfires.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Khaykin ◽  
Sophie Godin-Beekmann ◽  
Ghassan Taha ◽  
Artem Feofilov ◽  
Adam Bourassa ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Background Level ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Stratospheric Aerosol ◽  
Satellite Observations ◽  
Eastern Australia ◽  
Stratospheric Circulation ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Global Mean

<p>    During the last 2 years (2018-2019) a series of volcanic eruptions led to remarkable enhancements in stratospheric aerosol load. These are eruptions of <strong>Ambae</strong> (July 2018, Vanuatu), <strong>Raikoke</strong> (June 2019, Russia) and <strong>Ulawun</strong> (July 2019, Papua New Guinea). In this study we examine the evolution of the stratospheric aerosol bulk optical properties following these events in consideration of large-scale stratospheric circulation. We use long-term aerosol records by <strong>ground-based lidars</strong> in both hemispheres together with global observations by various satellite missions (<strong>OMPS-LP, SAGE III, OSIRIS, CALIOP</strong>) and discuss the consistency between these datasets.  In addition, we evaluate the preliminary lower stratosphere aerosol product by ESA <strong>Aeolus</strong> mission through intercomparison with ground-based lidars.</p><p>   The 28-yr Observatoire de Haute Provence (<strong>OHP) lidar record</strong> shows that<strong> Raikoke eruption has led to the strongest enhancement of stratospheric aerosol optical depth (SAOD) in the northern extratropics since Pinatubo eruption</strong>. Satellite observations suggest that the stratospheric plume of Raikoke has dispersed throughout the entire Northern hemisphere and ascended up to 27 km altitude. The eruption of Ulawun in the tropics has further boosted the stratospheric aerosol load and by Fall 2019, the <strong>global mean SAOD was a factor of 2.5 higher than its background level</strong>.</p><p>    At the turn of the year 2020, while both Raikoke and Ulawun aerosols were still present in the stratosphere, a dramatic bushfire event accompanied by vigorous fire-induced thunderstorms (PyroCb) in eastern Australia caused a massive injection of smoke into the stratosphere. The early detections of stratospheric smoke by OMPS-LP suggest that the zonal-mean SAOD perturbation caused by this event<strong> exceeds the previous record-breaking PyroCb-related perturbation</strong> after the British Columbia fires in August 2017. We use satellite observations of aerosol and trace gases (H2O, CO) to characterize the stratospheric impact of the wildfires and contrast it with that of volcanic eruptions.</p>

scholarly journals On the Role of Volcanism in Dansgaard-Oeschger Cycles

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Johannes Lohmann ◽  
Anders Svensson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Ice Cores ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Abrupt Climate Change ◽  
Last Glacial Period ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
The Last Glacial

Abstract. A significant influence of major volcanic eruptions on regime shifts and long-term climate variability has been suggested previously. But a statistical assessment of this has been hampered by inaccurate synchronization of large volcanic eruptions to changes in past climate. Here, this is achieved by combining a new record of bipolar volcanism from Greenland and Antarctic ice cores with records of abrupt climate change derived from the same ice cores. We show that at > 99 % confidence bipolar volcanic eruptions occurred more frequently than expected by chance just before the onset of Dansgaard-Oeschger events, the most prominent large-scale abrupt climate changes of the last glacial period. Out of 20 climate change events in the 12–60 ka period, 5 (7) occur within 20 (50) years after a bipolar eruption. Thus, such large eruptions may act as short-term triggers for large-scale abrupt climate change, and may explain part of the variability of Dansgaard-Oeschger cycles.

scholarly journals Estimating the Earth’s Outgoing Longwave Radiation Measured from a Moon-Based Platform

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (11) ◽  
pp. 2201
Author(s):  
Hanlin Ye ◽  
Huadong Guo ◽  
Guang Liu ◽  
Jinsong Ping ◽  
Lu Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Outgoing Longwave Radiation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Single Point ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Earth Observation ◽  
Artificial Satellites ◽  
Earth Observations ◽  
The Earth ◽  
Observation Geometry ◽  
Global Mean

Moon-based Earth observations have attracted significant attention across many large-scale phenomena. As the only natural satellite of the Earth, and having a stable lunar surface as well as a particular orbit, Moon-based Earth observations allow the Earth to be viewed as a single point. Furthermore, in contrast with artificial satellites, the varied inclination of Moon-based observations can improve angular samplings of specific locations on Earth. However, the potential for estimating the global outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) from the Earth with such a platform has not yet been fully explored. To evaluate the possibility of calculating OLR using specific Earth observation geometry, we constructed a model to estimate Moon-based OLR measurements and investigated the potential of a Moon-based platform to acquire the necessary data to estimate global mean OLR. The primary method of our study is the discretization of the observational scope into various elements and the consequent integration of the OLR of all elements. Our results indicate that a Moon-based platform is suitable for global sampling related to the calculation of global mean OLR. By separating the geometric and anisotropic factors from the measurement calculations, we ensured that measured values include the effects of the Moon-based Earth observation geometry and the anisotropy of the scenes in the observational scope. Although our results indicate that higher measured values can be achieved if the platform is located near the center of the lunar disk, a maximum difference between locations of approximately 9 × 10−4 W m−2 indicates that the effect of location is too small to remarkably improve observation performance of the platform. In conclusion, our analysis demonstrates that a Moon-based platform has the potential to provide continuous, adequate, and long-term data for estimating global mean OLR.

A study of long-term climate change in a simple seasonal nonlinear climate model

1991 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Q Lin ◽  
H Kreiss ◽  
W J Kuang ◽  
L Y Leung
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7621-7655 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

scholarly journals Comparison and assessment of large-scale surface temperature in climate model simulations

2019 ◽  
Vol 5 (1) ◽  
pp. 67-85
Author(s):  
Raquel Barata ◽  
Raquel Prado ◽  
Bruno Sansó
Keyword(s):  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Seasonal Changes ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Temperature Variability ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Climate Model Simulations

Abstract. We present a data-driven approach to assess and compare the behavior of large-scale spatial averages of surface temperature in climate model simulations and in observational products. We rely on univariate and multivariate dynamic linear model (DLM) techniques to estimate both long-term and seasonal changes in temperature. The residuals from the DLM analyses capture the internal variability of the climate system and exhibit complex temporal autocorrelation structure. To characterize this internal variability, we explore the structure of these residuals using univariate and multivariate autoregressive (AR) models. As a proof of concept that can easily be extended to other climate models, we apply our approach to one particular climate model (MIROC5). Our results illustrate model versus data differences in both long-term and seasonal changes in temperature. Despite differences in the underlying factors contributing to variability, the different types of simulation yield very similar spectral estimates of internal temperature variability. In general, we find that there is no evidence that the MIROC5 model systematically underestimates the amplitude of observed surface temperature variability on multi-decadal timescales – a finding that has considerable relevance regarding efforts to identify anthropogenic “fingerprints” in observational surface temperature data. Our methodology and results present a novel approach to obtaining data-driven estimates of climate variability for purposes of model evaluation.

scholarly journals Simulated climate variability in the region of Rapa Nui during the last millennium

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 381-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Junk ◽  
M. Claussen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Easter Island ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations

Abstract. Easter Island, an isolated island in the Southeast Pacific, was settled by the Polynesians probably between 600 and 1200 AD and discovered by the Europeans in 1722 AD. While the Polynesians presumably found a profuse palm woodland on Easter Island, the Europeans faced a landscape dominated by grassland. Scientists have examined potential anthropogenic, biological and climatic induced vegetation changes on Easter Island. Here, we analyze observational climate data for the last decades and climate model results for the period 800–1750 AD to explore potential causes for a climatic-induced vegetation change. A direct influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the climatic parameters of Easter Island could not be found in the model simulations. Furthermore, strong climatic trends from a warm Medieval Period to a Little Ice Age or rapid climatic fluctuations due to large volcanic eruptions were not verifiable for the Easter Island region, although they are detectable in the simulations for many regions world wide. Hence we tentatively conclude that large-scale climate changes in the oceanic region around Easter Island might be too small to explain strong vegetation changes on the island over the last millennium.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document