scholarly journals Simulated climate variability in the region of Rapa Nui during the last millennium

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 381-395 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Junk ◽  
M. Claussen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Easter Island ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations

Abstract. Easter Island, an isolated island in the Southeast Pacific, was settled by the Polynesians probably between 600 and 1200 AD and discovered by the Europeans in 1722 AD. While the Polynesians presumably found a profuse palm woodland on Easter Island, the Europeans faced a landscape dominated by grassland. Scientists have examined potential anthropogenic, biological and climatic induced vegetation changes on Easter Island. Here, we analyze observational climate data for the last decades and climate model results for the period 800–1750 AD to explore potential causes for a climatic-induced vegetation change. A direct influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the climatic parameters of Easter Island could not be found in the model simulations. Furthermore, strong climatic trends from a warm Medieval Period to a Little Ice Age or rapid climatic fluctuations due to large volcanic eruptions were not verifiable for the Easter Island region, although they are detectable in the simulations for many regions world wide. Hence we tentatively conclude that large-scale climate changes in the oceanic region around Easter Island might be too small to explain strong vegetation changes on the island over the last millennium.

scholarly journals Simulated climate variability in the region of Rapa Nui during the last millennium

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 579-586 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Junk ◽  
M. Claussen
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Rapa Nui ◽  
Climatic Fluctuations

Abstract. Rapa Nui, an isolated island in the Southeast Pacific, was settled by the Polynesians most likely around 1200 AD and was discovered by the Europeans in 1722 AD. While the Polynesians presumably found a profuse palm woodland on Rapa Nui, the Europeans faced a landscape dominated by grassland. Scientists have examined potential anthropogenic, biological and climatic induced vegetation changes on Rapa Nui. Here, we analyse observational climate data for the last decades and climate model results for the period 800–1750 AD to explore the potential for a climatic-induced vegetation change. A direct influence of the ENSO phenomenon on the climatic parameters of Rapa Nui could not be found in the model simulations. Furthermore, strong climatic trends from a warm Medieval Period to a Little Ice Age or rapid climatic fluctuations due to large volcanic eruptions were not verifiable for the Rapa Nui region, although they are detectable in the simulations for many regions world wide. Hence, we tentatively conclude that large-scale climate changes in the oceanic region around Rapa Nui might be too small to explain strong vegetation changes on the island over the last millennium.

scholarly journals Last Millennium Climate and Its Variability in CCSM4

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 1085-1111 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Landrum ◽  
Bette L. Otto-Bliesner ◽  
Eugene R. Wahl ◽  
Andrew Conley ◽  
Peter J. Lawrence ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Asian Monsoon Region ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
Proxy Reconstructions ◽  
Large Volcanic Eruptions

Abstract An overview of a simulation referred to as the “Last Millennium” (LM) simulation of the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4), is presented. The CCSM4 LM simulation reproduces many large-scale climate patterns suggested by historical and proxy-data records, with Northern Hemisphere (NH) and Southern Hemisphere (SH) surface temperatures cooling to the early 1800s Common Era by ~0.5°C (NH) and ~0.3°C (SH), followed by warming to the present. High latitudes of both hemispheres show polar amplification of the cooling from the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) to the Little Ice Age (LIA) associated with sea ice increases. The LM simulation does not reproduce La Niña–like cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean during the MCA relative to the LIA, as has been suggested by proxy reconstructions. Still, dry medieval conditions over the southwestern and central United States are simulated in agreement with proxy indicators for these regions. Strong global cooling is associated with large volcanic eruptions, with indications of multidecadal colder climate in response to larger eruptions. The CCSM4’s response to large volcanic eruptions captures some reconstructed patterns of temperature changes over Europe and North America, but not those of precipitation in the Asian monsoon region. The Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO) has higher variance at centennial periods in the LM simulation compared to the 1850 nontransient run, suggesting a long-term Atlantic Ocean response to natural forcings. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability modes show little or no change. CCSM4 does not simulate a persistent positive NAO or a prolonged period of negative PDO during the MCA, as suggested by some proxy reconstructions.

scholarly journals A data assimilation approach to last millennium temperature field reconstruction using a limited high-sensitivity proxy network

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-64
Author(s):  
Jonathan M. King ◽  
Kevin J. Anchukaitis ◽  
Jessica E. Tierney ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim ◽  
Julien Emile-Geay ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Tree Ring ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Spatial Uncertainty ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Temperature Sensitive ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Uncertainty Estimates

AbstractWe use theNorthern Hemisphere Tree-RingNetwork Development (NTREND) tree-ring database to examine the effects of using a small, highly-sensitive proxy network for paleotemperature data assimilation over the last millennium. We first evaluate our methods using pseudo-proxy experiments. These indicate that spatial assimilations using this network are skillful in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere and improve on previous NTREND reconstructions based on Point-by-Point regression. We also find our method is sensitive to climate model biases when the number of sites becomes small. Based on these experiments, we then assimilate the real NTREND network. To quantify model prior uncertainty, we produce 10 separate reconstructions, each assimilating a different climate model. These reconstructions are most dissimilar prior to 1100 CE, when the network becomes sparse, but show greater consistency as the network grows. Temporal variability is also underestimated before 1100 CE. Our assimilation method produces spatial uncertainty estimates and these identify treeline North America and eastern Siberia as regions that would most benefit from development of new millennial-length temperature-sensitive tree-ring records. We compare our multi-model mean reconstruction to five existing paleo-temperature products to examine the range of reconstructed responses to radiative forcing. We find substantial differences in the spatial patterns and magnitudes of reconstructed responses to volcanic eruptions and in the transition between the Medieval epoch and Little Ice Age. These extant uncertainties call for the development of a paleoclimate reconstruction intercomparison framework for systematically examining the consequences of proxy network composition and reconstruction methodology and for continued expansion of tree-ring proxy networks.

scholarly journals Understanding drivers of glacier-length variability over the last millennium

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1645-1662
Author(s):  
Alan Huston ◽  
Nicholas Siler ◽  
Gerard H. Roe ◽  
Erin Pettit ◽  
Nathan J. Steiger
Keyword(s):  
Climate Variability ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Forced Response ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
Climate History ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Glacier Length

Abstract. Changes in glacier length reflect the integrated response to local fluctuations in temperature and precipitation resulting from both external forcing (e.g., volcanic eruptions or anthropogenic CO2) and internal climate variability. In order to interpret the climate history reflected in the glacier moraine record, the influence of both sources of climate variability must therefore be considered. Here we study the last millennium of glacier-length variability across the globe using a simple dynamic glacier model, which we force with temperature and precipitation time series from a 13-member ensemble of simulations from a global climate model. The ensemble allows us to quantify the contributions to glacier-length variability from external forcing (given by the ensemble mean) and internal variability (given by the ensemble spread). Within this framework, we find that internal variability is the predominant source of length fluctuations for glaciers with a shorter response time (less than a few decades). However, for glaciers with longer response timescales (more than a few decades) external forcing has a greater influence than internal variability. We further find that external forcing also dominates when the response of glaciers from widely separated regions is averaged. Single-forcing simulations indicate that, for this climate model, most of the forced response over the last millennium, pre-anthropogenic warming, has been driven by global-scale temperature change associated with volcanic aerosols.

scholarly journals A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tarasov ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
The Last Glacial

Significant improvements to the representation of climate forcing and mass-balance response in a coupled two-dimensional global energy balance climate model (EBM) and vertically integrated ice-sheet model (ISM) have led to the prediction of an ice-volume chronology for the most recent ice-age cycle of the Northern Hemisphere that is close to that inferred from the geological record. Most significant is that full glacial termination is delivered by the model without the need for new physical ingredients. In addition, a relatively close match is achieved between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model ice topography and that of the recently-described ICE-4G reconstruction. These results suggest that large-scale climate system reorganization is not required to explain the main variations of the North American (NA) ice sheets over the last glacial cycle. Lack of sea-ice and marine-ice dynamics in the model leaves the situation over the Eurasian (EA) sector much more uncertain.The incorporation of a gravitationally self-consistent description of the glacial isostatic adjustment process demonstrates that the NA and EA bedrock responses can be adequately represented by simpler damped-relaxation models with characteristic time-scales of 3–5ka and 5 ka, respectively. These relaxation times agree with those independently inferred on the basis of postglacial relative sea-level histories.

scholarly journals Detecting Spatiotemporal Changes in Vegetation with the BFAST Model in the Qilian Mountain Region during 2000–2017

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Liying Geng ◽  
Tao Che ◽  
Xufeng Wang ◽  
Haibo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Vegetation Index ◽  
Anthropogenic Activities ◽  
Western China ◽  
Qinghai Lake ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Qilian Mountain ◽  
Modis Ndvi ◽  
Positive Effects

The Qilian Mountain ecosystems play an irreplaceable role in maintaining ecological security in western China. Vegetation, as an important part of the ecosystem, has undergone considerable changes in recent decades in this area, but few studies have focused on the process of vegetation change. A long normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) time series dataset based on remote sensing is an effective tool to investigate large-scale vegetation change dynamics. The MODerate resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI dataset has provided very detailed regional to global information on the state of vegetation since 2000. The aim of this study was to explore the spatial-temporal characteristics of abrupt vegetation changes and detect their potential drivers in the Qilian Mountain area using MODIS NDVI data with 1 km resolution from 2000 to 2017. The Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) algorithm was adopted to detect vegetation breakpoint change times and magnitudes from satellite observations. Our results indicated that approximately 80.1% of vegetation areas experienced at least one abrupt change from 2000 to 2017, and most of these areas were distributed in the southern and northern parts of the study area, especially the area surrounding Qinghai Lake. The abrupt browning changes were much more widespread than the abrupt greening changes for most years of the study period. Environmental factors and anthropogenic activities mainly drove the abrupt vegetation changes. Long-term overgrazing is likely the main cause of the abrupt browning changes. In addition, our results indicate that national ecological protection policies have achieved positive effects in the study area.

scholarly journals A high-resolution model of the 100 ka ice-age cycle

1997 ◽  
Vol 25 ◽  
pp. 58-65 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Tarasov ◽  
W. R. Peltier
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Relaxation Times ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Adjustment Process ◽  
Glacial Cycle ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Last Glacial ◽  
The North ◽  
The Last Glacial

Significant improvements to the representation of climate forcing and mass-balance response in a coupled two-dimensional global energy balance climate model (EBM) and vertically integrated ice-sheet model (ISM) have led to the prediction of an ice-volume chronology for the most recent ice-age cycle of the Northern Hemisphere that is close to that inferred from the geological record. Most significant is that full glacial termination is delivered by the model without the need for new physical ingredients. In addition, a relatively close match is achieved between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) model ice topography and that of the recently-described ICE-4G reconstruction. These results suggest that large-scale climate system reorganization is not required to explain the main variations of the North American (NA) ice sheets over the last glacial cycle. Lack of sea-ice and marine-ice dynamics in the model leaves the situation over the Eurasian (EA) sector much more uncertain.The incorporation of a gravitationally self-consistent description of the glacial isostatic adjustment process demonstrates that the NA and EA bedrock responses can be adequately represented by simpler damped-relaxation models with characteristic time-scales of 3–5ka and 5 ka, respectively. These relaxation times agree with those independently inferred on the basis of postglacial relative sea-level histories.

scholarly journals Dynamic wavelet correlation analysis for multivariate climate time series

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Josué M. Polanco-Martínez ◽  
Javier Fernández-Macho ◽  
Martín Medina-Elizalde
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Last Millennium ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Time Series

AbstractThe wavelet local multiple correlation (WLMC) is introduced for the first time in the study of climate dynamics inferred from multivariate climate time series. To exemplify the use of WLMC with real climate data, we analyse Last Millennium (LM) relationships among several large-scale reconstructed climate variables characterizing North Atlantic: i.e. sea surface temperatures (SST) from the tropical cyclone main developmental region (MDR), the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and tropical cyclone counts (TC). We examine the former three large-scale variables because they are known to influence North Atlantic tropical cyclone activity and because their underlying drivers are still under investigation. WLMC results obtained for these multivariate climate time series suggest that: (1) MDRSST and AMO show the highest correlation with each other and with respect to the TC record over the last millennium, and: (2) MDRSST is the dominant climate variable that explains TC temporal variability. WLMC results confirm that this method is able to capture the most fundamental information contained in multivariate climate time series and is suitable to investigate correlation among climate time series in a multivariate context.

Projecting future vegetation change for northeast China using CMIP6

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wei Yuan ◽  
Shuang-ye Wu ◽  
Shugui Hou
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Change ◽  
Management Strategies ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
Vegetation Changes ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation

<p>This study aims to establish future vegetation changes in the east and central of northern China (ECNC), an ecologically sensitive region in the transition zonal from humid monsoonal to arid continental climate. The region has experienced significant greening in the past several decades. However, few studies exist on how vegetation will change with future climate change, and great uncertainties exist due to complex, and often spatially non-stationary, relationships between vegetation and climate. In this study, we first used historical NDVI and climate data to model this spatially variable relationship with Geographically Weighted Logit Regression. We found that temperature and precipitation could explain, on average, 43% of NDVI variance, and they could be used to model NDVI fairly well. We then establish future climate change using the output of 11 CMIP6 models for the medium (SSP245) and high (SSP585) emission scenarios for the mid-century (2041-2070) and late-century (2071-2100). The results show that for this region, both temperature and precipitation will increase under both scenarios. By late-century under SSP585, precipitation is projected to increase by 25.12% and temperature is projected to increase 5.87<sup>o</sup>C in ECNC. Finally, we used future climate conditions as input for the regression models to project future vegetation (indicated by NDVI). We found that NDVI will increase under climate change. By mid-century, the average NDVI in ECNC will increase by 0.024 and 0.021 under SSP245 and SSP585. By late-century, it will increase by 0.016 and 0.006 under SSP245 and SSP585 respectively. Although NDVI is projected to increase, the magnitude of increase is likely to diminish with higher emission scenarios, possibly due to the benefit of precipitation increase being gradually encroached by the detrimental effects of temperature increase. Moreover, despite the overall NDVI increase, the area likely to suffer vegetation degradation will also expands, particularly in the western part of ECNC. With higher emissions and later into the century, region with low NDVI is likely to shift and/or expand north-forward. Our results could provide important information on possible vegetation changes, which could help to develop effective management strategies to ensure ecological and economic sustainability in the future.</p>

scholarly journals High-resolution leaf wax carbon and hydrogen isotopic record of the late Holocene paleoclimate in arid Central Asia

2015 ◽  
Vol 11 (4) ◽  
pp. 619-633 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Aichner ◽  
S. J. Feakins ◽  
J. E. Lee ◽  
U. Herzschuh ◽  
X. Liu
Keyword(s):  
Central Asia ◽  
Late Holocene ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Precipitation Amount ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Late Winter ◽  
Arid Central Asia ◽  
Leaf Wax ◽  
D Values

Abstract. Central Asia is located at the confluence of large-scale atmospheric circulation systems. It is thus likely to be highly susceptible to changes in the dynamics of those systems; however, little is still known about the regional paleoclimate history. Here we present carbon and hydrogen isotopic compositions of n-alkanoic acids from a late Holocene sediment core from Lake Karakuli (eastern Pamir, Xinjiang Province, China). Instrumental evidence and isotope-enabled climate model experiments with the Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique Zoom model version 4 (LMDZ4) demonstrate that δ D values of precipitation in the region are influenced by both temperature and precipitation amount. We find that these parameters are inversely correlated on an annual scale, i.e., the climate has varied between relatively cool and wet and more warm and dry over the last 50 years. Since the isotopic signals of these changes are in the same direction and therefore additive, isotopes in precipitation are sensitive recorders of climatic changes in the region. Additionally, we infer that plants use year-round precipitation (including snowmelt), and thus leaf wax δ D values must also respond to shifts in the proportion of moisture derived from westerly storms during late winter and early spring. Downcore results give evidence for a gradual shift to cooler and wetter climates between 3.5 and 2.5 cal kyr BP, interrupted by a warm and dry episode between 3.0 and 2.7 kyr BP. Further cool and wet episodes occur between 1.9 and 1.5 and between 0.6 and 0.1 kyr BP, the latter coeval with the Little Ice Age. Warm and dry episodes from 2.5 to 1.9 and 1.5 to 0.6 kyr BP coincide with the Roman Warm Period and Medieval Climate Anomaly, respectively. Finally, we find a drying tend in recent decades. Regional comparisons lead us to infer that the strength and position of the westerlies, and wider northern hemispheric climate dynamics, control climatic shifts in arid Central Asia, leading to complex local responses. Our new archive from Lake Karakuli provides a detailed record of the local signatures of these climate transitions in the eastern Pamir.

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