scholarly journals Two Modes of North American Drought from Instrumental and Paleoclimatic Data*

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (16) ◽  
pp. 4336-4347 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. A. Woodhouse ◽  
J. L. Russell ◽  
E. R. Cook
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Pressure ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
The Past ◽  
Circulation Patterns ◽  
Paleoclimatic Data ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
East West ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Droughts, which occur as a part of natural climate variability, are expected to increase in frequency and/or severity with global climate change. An improved understanding of droughts and their association with atmospheric circulation will add to the knowledge about the controls on drought, and the ways in which changes in climate may impact droughts. In this study, 1) major drought patterns across the United States have been defined, 2) the robustness of these patterns over time using tree-ring-based drought reconstructions have been evaluated, and 3) the drought patterns with respect to global atmospheric pressure patterns have been assessed. From this simple assessment, it is suggested that there are two major drought patterns across North America, which together account for about 30% of the total variance in drought patterns—one resembles the classic ENSO teleconnection, and the other displays an east–west drought dipole. The same two patterns are evident in the instrumental data and the reconstructed drought data for two different periods, 1404–2003 and 900–1350. The 500-mb circulation patterns associated with the two drought patterns suggest that the controls on drought may come from both Northern Hemisphere and tropical sources. The two drought patterns, and presumably their associated circulation patterns, vary in strength over time, indicating the combined effects of the two patterns on droughts over the past millennium.

Persuasion and Propaganda in War and Terrorism

2019 ◽  
pp. 1048-1071
Author(s):  
Thomas Steinfatt ◽  
Dana Janbek
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War I ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
World War ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
Actual Use ◽  
Time Part ◽  
Over Time

This chapter focuses on the use of propaganda during times of war, prejudice, and political unrest. Part one distinguishes between persuasion and one of its forms, propaganda. The meaning-in-use of the term ‘propaganda' is essential to understanding its use over time. Part two presents relevant examples of propaganda from the past several centuries in the United States and Europe. These examples include episodes from World War I and II, among others. Propaganda is not a new tool of persuasion, and learning about its use in the past provides a comparison that helps in understanding its use in the present and future. Part three looks at recent examples of how propaganda occurs in actual use in online terrorist mediums by Al-Qaeda and by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

Causal and Dialectical Models of Deviance: The Case of Marijuana Use in the United States

1980 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-44 ◽  
Author(s):  
William R. Faulkner ◽  
Marvin Krohn ◽  
Richard A. Mathers
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Marijuana Use ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Past ◽  
Historical Model ◽  
Over Time

A historical dialectical model of deviance is presented and contrasted with the empiricist conception of unidirectional causation. This historical model, focusing on the interaction over time between culture or ideology and socially structured reality is used to organize data on marijuana use in America over the past 50 years. It is argued that only a historical model of this sort can adequately account for the changing ideology and reality of deviant phenomena, including the findings of and conclusions drawn from empiricist research.

scholarly journals Equity and length of lifespan are not the same

2016 ◽  
Vol 113 (30) ◽  
pp. 8420-8423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Seligman ◽  
Gabi Greenberg ◽  
Shripad Tuljapurkar
Keyword(s):  
Life Expectancy ◽  
Health Equity ◽  
Causes Of Death ◽  
The United States ◽  
Past Century ◽  
The Past ◽  
The United Kingdom ◽  
Mortality Improvement ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Age Of Death

Efforts to understand the dramatic declines in mortality over the past century have focused on life expectancy. However, understanding changes in disparity in age of death is important to understanding mechanisms of mortality improvement and devising policy to promote health equity. We derive a novel decomposition of variance in age of death, a measure of inequality, and apply it to cause-specific contributions to the change in variance among the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States) from 1950 to 2010. We find that the causes of death that contributed most to declines in the variance are different from those that contributed most to increase in life expectancy; in particular, they affect mortality at younger ages. We also find that, for two leading causes of death [cancers and cardiovascular disease (CVD)], there are no consistent relationships between changes in life expectancy and variance either within countries over time or between countries. These results show that promoting health at younger ages is critical for health equity and that policies to control cancer and CVD may have differing implications for equity.

scholarly journals Impact of natural climate variability on runoff based on Monte Carlo method

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (2) ◽  
pp. 344-359 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jie Yang ◽  
Jianxia Chang ◽  
Jun Yao ◽  
Yimin Wang ◽  
Qiang Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Monte Carlo ◽  
Monte Carlo Method ◽  
Climate Variability ◽  
Natural Condition ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Test Method ◽  
Natural Climate Variability ◽  
Local Interference ◽  
Natural Climate ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Studying the impact of climate variability is important for the rational utilization of water resources, especially in the case of intensified global climate variability. Climate variability can be caused by natural climate variability or human-caused climate variability. The analysis of Jinghe River Basin (JRB) may not be comprehensive because few studies have concentrated on natural climate variability. Therefore, the primary goal is to explore the impact of natural climate variability on runoff. A modified Mann–Kendall test method was adopted to analyze the aberrance point to determine the natural condition period during which runoff was only influenced by natural climate variability. Then, the Monte Carlo method was employed to extract segments of monthly runoff in the natural condition period and combine them to construct a long series to reduce the instability. Results indicate that the percentage of runoff variability affected by natural climate variability is 30.52% at a confidence level of 95%. Next, a topography-based hydrological model and climate elasticity method were used to simulate runoff after the aberrance point without considering the impact caused by local interference. Through a comparison of the measured and simulated runoff, we discovered that local interference has the greatest impact on runoff in the JRB.

scholarly journals Engagement With Online Tobacco Marketing Among Adolescents in the United States: 2013–2014 to 2014–2015

2018 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 918-925 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samir Soneji ◽  
JaeWon Yang ◽  
Meghan Bridgid Moran ◽  
Andy S L Tan ◽  
James Sargent ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tobacco Use ◽  
Social Networking Sites ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health Study ◽  
Tobacco Marketing ◽  
The Past ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
National Prevalence ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Objective To assess changes in engagement with online tobacco and electronic cigarette (e-cigarette) marketing (online tobacco marketing) among adolescents in the United States between 2013 and 2015. Methods We assessed the prevalence of six forms of engagement with online tobacco marketing, both overall and by brand, among adolescents sampled in Wave 1 (2013–2014; n = 13651) and Wave 2 (2014–2015; n = 12172) of the nationally representative Population Assessment for Tobacco and Health Study. Engagement was analyzed by tobacco use status: non-susceptible never tobacco users; susceptible never tobacco users; ever tobacco users, but not within the past year; and past-year tobacco users. Results Among all adolescents, the estimated prevalence of engagement with at least one form of online tobacco marketing increased from 8.7% in 2013–2014 to 20.9% in 2014–2015. The estimated prevalence of engagement also increased over time across all tobacco use statuses (eg, from 10.5% to 26.6% among susceptible adolescents). Brand-specific engagement increased over time for cigarette, cigar, and e-cigarette brands. Conclusion Engagement with online tobacco marketing, both for tobacco and e-cigarettes, increased almost twofold over time. This increase emphasizes the dynamic nature of online tobacco marketing and its ability to reach youth. The Food and Drug Administration, in cooperation with social networking sites, should consider new approaches to regulate this novel form of marketing. Implications This is the first study to estimate the national prevalence of engagement with online tobacco marketing among adolescents over time. The estimated prevalence of this engagement approximately doubled between 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 among all adolescents and, notably, among adolescents at relatively low risk to initiate tobacco use. This increase in engagement could represent public health harm if it results in increased initiation and use of tobacco products. Stronger federal regulation of online tobacco marketing and tighter control of access to tobacco-related content by social media sites could reduce adolescents’ exposure to and engagement with online tobacco marketing.

Recovering from Nuclear Codependence

Horizons ◽  
1991 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 7-17
Author(s):  
Patrick T. McCormick
Keyword(s):  
Cold War ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Past ◽  
Past Half Century ◽  
The Cold War ◽  
Systemic Understanding ◽  
Modern Warfare ◽  
Radical Transformation ◽  
Past Half ◽  
East West

AbstractWith the revolutions in Eastern Europe precipitating a radical transformation of the Cold War which has dominated East-West relations for the past half century, there is a need and an opportunity to examine anew the processes and structures of modern warfare. By constructing a model of the Cold War as an addictive system in which the Americans and the Soviets have cooperated as “nuclear” codependents in the addictive process of the arms race it may be possible to gain a more realistic (dynamic and systemic) understanding of the forces driving global militarism as well as some insights into the dangers which lie ahead as the United States attempts to withdraw and recover from this reality.

scholarly journals American’s Energy Future: An Analysis of the Proposed Energy Policy Plans in Presidential Election

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ming-Hsun Cheng ◽  
Minliang Yang ◽  
Yu Wang
Keyword(s):  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Presidential Election ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Fossil Fuel ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Energy System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Least Squares Regression ◽  
The Past ◽  
Change Problem

As the leader of the largest economy, President of the United States has substantive influence on addressing the global climate change problem. However, presidential election is often dominated by issues other than energy problems. This paper focuses on the on-going 2016 presidential election, examining the energy plans proposed by the leading Democrat and Republican candidates. Our data from the Iowa caucus survey in January 2016 suggests that voters are more concerned about terrorism and economic issues than environmental relative issues. We then compare the Democratic and Republican candidate’s view of American’s energy future, and evaluate their proposed renewable energy targets. We find that the view on renewable energy is polarized between Democratic and Republican candidates, while candidates from both parties agree on the need for energy efficiency. Results from our ordinal least squares regression models suggest that Democratic candidates have moderate to ambitious goals for developing solar and other renewable energy. The Republican candidates favor fossil fuel and they neglect to provide any plan for renewable energy. In addition, this trend of polarization has grown more significant when compared with the past three presidential elections. Our observation suggests that energy issues need to be discussed more to draw broader attention to salient issues of diversifying and decarbonizing the nation’s energy system.

scholarly journals Volumes, outcomes, and complications after surgical versus endovascular treatment of aneurysms in the United States (1993–2015): continued evolution versus steady-state after more than 2 decades of practice

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedram Golnari ◽  
Pouya Nazari ◽  
Roxanna M. Garcia ◽  
Hannah Weiss ◽  
Ali Shaibani ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Endovascular Treatment ◽  
Fold Increase ◽  
The United States ◽  
Diagnosis And Treatment ◽  
Unruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Ruptured Aneurysms ◽  
The Past ◽  
The Us ◽  
Risk Ratios ◽  
Over Time

OBJECTIVEAdoption of endovascular treatment (EVT) and other advances in aneurysm care have shifted practice patterns of cerebral aneurysm treatment over the past 2 decades in the US. The objective of this study was to determine whether resulting trends in volumes, outcomes, and complications have matured in general practice or continue to evolve.METHODSData were obtained from the National Inpatient Sample from 1993 to 2015. ICD-9 codes were used to estimate annual volumes, outcomes, and complications following treatment of ruptured and unruptured aneurysms. Univariate and multivariate analyses were used to estimate risk ratios for complications and outcomes. Trends in time were assessed utilizing annual percentage change (APC).RESULTSThe authors found a nearly 5-fold increase in annual admissions with diagnoses of unruptured aneurysms, whereas SAH volume increased less than 50%. Clipping ruptured aneurysms steadily declined (APC −0.86%, p = 0.69 until 1999, then −6.22%, p < 0.001 thereafter), whereas clipping unruptured aneurysms slightly increased (APC 2.02%, p < 0.001). EVT tripled in 2002–2004 and steadily increased thereafter (APC 7.22%, p < 0.001 and 5.85%, p = 0.01 for unruptured and ruptured aneurysms, respectively). Despite a 3-fold increase in both diagnosis and treatment of unruptured aneurysms, the incidence of SAH remained steady at 12 per 100,000 persons per year (APC 0.04%, p = 0.83). In contrast, SAH severity increased over time, as did patient age and comorbidities (all p < 0.001). SAH led to nonroutine discharge more frequently over time after both EVT and clipping (APC 1.24% and 1.10%, respectively), although mortality decreased during the same time (APC −2.48% and −1.44%, respectively). Complications were more frequent after clipping than EVT, but this differential risk diminished during the study period and was less perceptible in ruptured aneurysms. The proportion of patients discharged home after treatment of unruptured aneurysms was significantly lower (p < 0.001) after clipping (69.3%–79.5%) than EVT (88.3%–93.3%); both proportions changed minimally since 1998 (APC −0.39%, p = 0.02, and APC −0.11%, p = 0.14, respectively).CONCLUSIONSEVT volume markedly increased for ruptured and unruptured aneurysms from 1993 to 2015, whereas clipping decreased for ruptured and slightly increased for unruptured aneurysms. The incidence of SAH remained unchanged despite increased diagnosis and treatment of unruptured aneurysms. In ruptured aneurysms, SAH severity has increased over time, as have age, comorbidities, and nonroutine discharges. In contrast, routine discharge after treatment of unruptured aneurysms remains largely unchanged since 1998 and remains lower with clipping.

Persuasion and Propaganda in War and Terrorism

2016 ◽  
pp. 16-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thomas Steinfatt ◽  
Dana Janbek
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World War I ◽  
The United States ◽  
Islamic State ◽  
World War ◽  
The Past ◽  
Political Unrest ◽  
Actual Use ◽  
Time Part ◽  
Over Time

This chapter focuses on the use of propaganda during times of war, prejudice, and political unrest. Part one distinguishes between persuasion and one of its forms, propaganda. The meaning-in-use of the term ‘propaganda' is essential to understanding its use over time. Part two presents relevant examples of propaganda from the past several centuries in the United States and Europe. These examples include episodes from World War I and II, among others. Propaganda is not a new tool of persuasion, and learning about its use in the past provides a comparison that helps in understanding its use in the present and future. Part three looks at recent examples of how propaganda occurs in actual use in online terrorist mediums by Al-Qaeda and by the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS).

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