Vertical Heating Structures Associated with the MJO as Characterized by TRMM Estimates, ECMWF Reanalyses, and Forecasts: A Case Study during 1998/99 Winter

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (22) ◽  
pp. 6001-6020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xianan Jiang ◽  
Duane E. Waliser ◽  
William S. Olson ◽  
Wei-Kuo Tao ◽  
Tristan S. L’Ecuyer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Rain Rate ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Radiative Heating ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models

Abstract The Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) is a fundamental mode of the tropical atmosphere variability that exerts significant influence on global climate and weather systems. Current global circulation models, unfortunately, are incapable of robustly representing this form of variability. Meanwhile, a well-accepted and comprehensive theory for the MJO is still elusive. To help address this challenge, recent emphasis has been placed on characterizing the vertical structures of the MJO. In this study, the authors analyze vertical heating structures by utilizing recently updated heating estimates based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) from two different latent heating estimates and one radiative heating estimate. Heating structures from two different versions of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalyses/forecasts are also examined. Because of the limited period of available datasets at the time of this study, the authors focus on the winter season from October 1998 to March 1999. The results suggest that diabatic heating associated with the MJO convection in the ECMWF outputs exhibits much stronger amplitude and deeper structures than that in the TRMM estimates over the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Further analysis illustrates that this difference might be due to stronger convective and weaker stratiform components in the ECMWF estimates relative to the TRMM estimates, with the latter suggesting a comparable contribution by the stratiform and convective counterparts in contributing to the total rain rate. Based on the TRMM estimates, it is also illustrated that the stratiform fraction of total rain rate varies with the evolution of the MJO. Stratiform rain ratio over the Indian Ocean is found to be 5% above (below) average for the disturbed (suppressed) phase of the MJO. The results are discussed with respect to whether these heating estimates provide enough convergent information to have implications on theories of the MJO and whether they can help validate global weather and climate models.

scholarly journals Submonthly Indian Ocean Cooling Events and Their Interaction with Large-Scale Conditions

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (3) ◽  
pp. 700-716 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ian D. Lloyd ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Low Frequency ◽  
Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Standard Deviations ◽  
Frequency Changes

Abstract The Indian Ocean exhibits strong variability on a number of time scales, including prominent intraseasonal variations in both the atmosphere and ocean. Of particular interest is the south tropical Indian Ocean thermocline ridge, a region located between 12° and 5°S, which exhibits prominent variability in sea surface temperature (SST) due to dominant winds that raise the thermocline and shoal the mixed layer. In this paper, submonthly (less than 30 day) cooling events in the thermocline ridge region are diagnosed with observations and models, and are related to large-scale conditions in the Indo-Pacific region. Observations from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager (TMI) satellite were used to identify 16 cooling events in the period 1998–2007, which on average cannot be fully accounted for by air–sea enthalpy fluxes. Analysis of observations and a hierarchy of models, including two coupled global climate models (GFDL CM2.1 and GFDL CM2.4), indicates that ocean dynamical changes are important to the cooling events. For extreme cooling events (above 2.5 standard deviations), air–sea enthalpy fluxes account for approximately 50% of the SST signature, and oceanic processes cannot in general be neglected. For weaker cooling events (1.5–2.5 standard deviations), air–sea enthalpy fluxes account for a larger fraction of the SST signature. Furthermore, it is found that cooling events are preconditioned by large-scale, low-frequency changes in the coupled ocean–atmosphere system. When the thermocline is unusually shallow in the thermocline ridge region, cooling events are more likely to occur and are stronger; these large-scale conditions are more (less) likely during La Niña (El Niño/Indian Ocean dipole) events. Strong cooling events are associated with changes in atmospheric convection, which resemble the Madden–Julian oscillation, in both observations and the models.

scholarly journals 21st century fate of the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in southern Chile

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matthias Scheiter ◽  
Marius Schaefer ◽  
Eduardo Flández ◽  
Deniz Bozkurt ◽  
Ralf Greve
Keyword(s):  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Lake District ◽  
Equilibrium Line Altitude ◽  
Ice Dynamics ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Ice Cap ◽  
Global Circulation Models

Abstract. Glaciers and ice caps are thinning and retreating along the entire Andes ridge, and drivers of this mass loss vary between the different climate zones. The southern part of the Andes (Wet Andes) has the highest abundance of glaciers in number and size, and a proper understanding of ice dynamics is important to assess their evolution. In this contribution, we apply the ice sheet model SICOPOLIS to the Mocho-Choshuenco ice cap in the Chilean Lake District (40° S, 72° W, Wet Andes) to reproduce its current state and to project its evolution until the end of the 21st century under different global warming scenarios. First, we create a model spin-up using surface mass balance data observed on the south-eastern catchment, extrapolating them to the whole ice cap using an exposition-dependent parameterization. This spin-up is able to reproduce the most important present-day glacier features. Based on the spin-up, we then run the model 80 years into the future, forced by projected surface temperature anomalies from different global circulation models under different radiative pathway scenarios to obtain estimates of the ice cap's state by the end of the 21st century. The mean projected ice volume losses are 25 ± 19 % (RCP2.6), 64 ± 14 % (RCP4.5) and 94 ± 3 % (RCP8.5) with respect to the ice volume estimated by radio-echo sounding data from 2013. We estimate the uncertainty of our projections based on the spread of the results when forcing with different global climate models and on the uncertainty associated with the variation of the equilibrium line altitude with temperature change. Considering our results, we project an considerable deglaciation of the Chilean Lake District by the end of the 21st century.

scholarly journals Tesserae on Venus may preserve evidence of fluvial erosion

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Khawja ◽  
R. E. Ernst ◽  
C. Samson ◽  
P. K. Byrne ◽  
R. C. Ghail ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
High Surface ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Tectonic Deformation ◽  
Fluvial Erosion ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Research Theme ◽  
Wet Climate ◽  
Indirect Technique

AbstractFluvial erosion is usually assumed to be absent on Venus, precluded by a high surface temperature of ~450 °C and supported by extensive uneroded volcanic flows. However, recent global circulation models suggest the possibility of Earth-like climatic conditions on Venus for much of its earlier history, prior to catastrophic runaway greenhouse warming. We observe that the stratigraphically oldest, geologically most complex units, tesserae, exhibit valley patterns morphologically similar to the patterns resulting from fluvial erosion on Earth. Given poor topographic resolution, we use an indirect technique to recognize valleys, based on the pattern of lava flooding of tesserae margins by adjacent plains volcanism. These observed valley patterns are attributed to primary geology, tectonic deformation, followed by fluvial erosion (and lesser wind erosion). This proposed fluvial erosion in tesserae provides support for climate models for a cool, wet climate on early Venus and could be an attractive research theme for future Venus missions.

scholarly journals Unraveling Causes for the Changing Behavior of the Tropical Indian Ocean in the Past Few Decades

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2377-2388 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Weiqing Han ◽  
Frank Sienz
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Time Scales ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Decadal Variability ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Volcanic Eruptions ◽  
Warming Trend ◽  
External Forcing ◽  
The Pacific

Observations show that decadal (10–20 yr) to interdecadal (>20 yr) variability of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) sea surface temperature (SST) closely follows that of the Pacific until the 1960s. Since then, the TIO SST exhibits a persistent warming trend, whereas the Pacific SST shows large-amplitude fluctuations associated with the interdecadal Pacific oscillation (IPO), and the decadal variability of the TIO SST is out of phase with that of the Pacific after around 1980. Here causes for the changing behavior of the TIO SST are explored, by analyzing multiple observational datasets and the recently available large-ensemble simulations from two climate models. It is found that on interdecadal time scales, the persistent TIO warming trend is caused by emergence of anthropogenic warming overcoming internal variability, while the time of emergence occurs much later in the Pacific. On decadal time scales, two major tropical volcanic eruptions occurred in the 1980s and 1990s causing decadal SST cooling over the TIO during which the IPO was in warm phase, yielding the out-of-phase relation. The more evident fingerprints of external forcing in the TIO compared to the Pacific result from the much weaker TIO internal decadal–interdecadal variability, making the TIO prone to the external forcing. These results imply that the ongoing warming and natural external forcing may make the Indian Ocean more active, playing an increasingly important role in affecting regional and global climate.

scholarly journals Brief Communication: Drought Likelihood for East Africa

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hui Yang ◽  
Chris Huntingford
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Extreme Rainfall ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Severe Drought ◽  
East African ◽  
Reanalysis Dataset ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range

Abstract. The on-going effects of severe drought in East Africa are causing high levels of malnutrition, hunger, illness and death. Close to 16 million people across Somalia, Ethiopia and Kenya need food, water and medical assistance (DEC, 2017). Many factors influence drought stress and ability to respond. However, inevitably it is asked: are elevated atmospheric greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations altering the likelihood of extreme rainfall deficits? We find small increases in probability of this for East African, based on merging the observation-based reanalysis dataset by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) (Dee et al., 2011) with Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the CMIP5 database (Taylor et al., 2012).

On the relationship between Indian Ocean Dipole, Indian summer monsoon and ENSO

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annalisa Cherchi ◽  
Pascal Terray ◽  
Satyaban Bishoyi Ratna ◽  
Virna Meccia ◽  
Sooraj K.P.
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Indian Ocean

<p>The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is one of the dominant modes of variability of the tropical Indian Ocean and it has been suggested to have a crucial role in the teleconnection between the Indian summer monsoon and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The main ideas at the base of the influence of the IOD on the ENSO-monsoon teleconnection include the possibility that it may strengthen summer rainfall over India, as well as the opposite, and also that it may produce a remote forcing on ENSO itself. The Indian Ocean has been experiencing a warming, larger than any other basins, since the 1950s. During these decades, the summer monsoon rainfall over India decreased and the frequency of Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events increased. In the future the IOD is projected to further increase in frequency and amplitude with mean conditions mimicking the characteristics of its positive phase. Still, state of the art global climate models have large biases in representing IOD and monsoon mean state and variability, with potential consequences for properties and related teleconnections projected in the future. This works collects a review study of the influence of the IOD on the ISM and its relationship with ENSO, as well as new results on IOD projections comparing CMIP5 and CMIP6 models.</p>

Modelling melt ponds in Global Circulation Models

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jean Sterlin ◽  
Thierry Fichefet ◽  
François Massonnet ◽  
Olivier Lecomte ◽  
Martin Vancoppenolle
Keyword(s):  
Aspect Ratio ◽  
Sea Ice ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Melt Pond ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Melt Ponds ◽  
The Impact

<p>Melt ponds appear during the Arctic summer on the sea ice cover when meltwater and liquid precipitation collect in the depressions of the ice surface. The albedo of the melt ponds is lower than that of surrounding ice and snow areas. Consequently, the melt ponds are an important factor for the ice-albedo feedback, a mechanism whereby a decrease in albedo results in greater absorption of solar radiation, further ice melt, and lower albedos </p><p>To account for the effect of melt ponds on the climate, several numerical schemes have been introduced for Global Circulation Models. They can be classified into two groups. The first group makes use of an explicit relation to define the aspect ratio of the melt ponds. The scheme of Holland et al. (2012) uses a constant ratio of the melt pond depth to the fraction of sea ice covered by melt ponds. The second group relies on theoretical considerations to deduce the area and volume of the melt ponds. The scheme of Flocco et al. (2012) uses the ice thickness distribution to share the meltwater between the ice categories and determine the melt ponds characteristics.</p><p>Despite their complexity, current melt pond schemes fail to agree on the trends in melt pond fraction of sea ice area during the last decades. The disagreement casts doubts on the projected melt pond changes. It also raises questions on the definition of the physical processes governing the melt ponds in the schemes and their sensitivity to atmospheric surface conditions.</p><p>In this study, we aim at identifying 1) the conceptual difference of the aspect ratio definition in melt pond schemes; 2) the role of refreezing for melt ponds; 3) the impact of the uncertainties in the atmospheric reanalyses. To address these points, we have run the Louvain-la-Neuve Ice Model (LIM), part of the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) version 3.6 along with two different atmospheric reanalyses as surface forcing sets. We used the reanalyses in association with Holland et al. (2012) and Flocco et al. (2012) melt pond schemes. We selected Holland et al. (2012) pond refreezing formulation for both schemes and tested two different threshold temperatures for refreezing. </p><p>From the experiments, we describe the impact on Arctic sea ice and state the importance of including melt ponds in climate models. We attempt at disentangling the separate effects of the type of melt pond scheme, the refreezing mechanism, and the atmospheric surface forcing method, on the climate. We finally formulate a recommendation on the use of melt ponds in climate models. </p>

scholarly journals Do GCMs predict the climate ... or macroweather?

2013 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 439-454 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Lovejoy ◽  
D. Schertzer ◽  
D. Varon
Keyword(s):  
Climate Models ◽  
Great Majority ◽  
Nonlinear Dynamical ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Scale Temperature ◽  
Continuous Background ◽  
Climate Forcings ◽  
Spectral Variance ◽  
Global Fluctuations

Abstract. We are used to the weather–climate dichotomy, yet the great majority of the spectral variance of atmospheric fields is in the continuous "background" and this defines instead a trichotomy with a "macroweather" regime in the intermediate range from ≈10 days to 10–30 yr (≈100 yr in the preindustrial period). In the weather, macroweather and climate regimes, exponents characterize the type of variability over the entire regime and it is natural to identify them with qualitatively different synergies of nonlinear dynamical mechanisms that repeat scale after scale. Since climate models are essentially meteorological models (although with extra couplings) it is thus important to determine whether they currently model all three regimes. Using last millennium simulations from four GCMs (global circulation models), we show that control runs only reproduce macroweather. When various (reconstructed) climate forcings are included, in the recent (industrial) period they show global fluctuations strongly increasing at scales > ≈10–30 yr, which is quite close to the observations. However, in the preindustrial period we find that the multicentennial variabilities are too weak and by analysing the scale dependence of solar and volcanic forcings, we argue that these forcings are unlikely to be sufficiently strong to account for the multicentennial and longer-scale temperature variability. A likely explanation is that the models lack important slow "climate" processes such as land ice or various biogeochemical processes.

Forecasting climate-driven changes in the geographical range of the European anchovy (Engraulis encrasicolus)

2017 ◽  
Vol 74 (5) ◽  
pp. 1288-1299 ◽  
Author(s):  
Virginie Raybaud ◽  
Mahmoud Bacha ◽  
Rachid Amara ◽  
Grégory Beaugrand
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
European Anchovy ◽  
Probability Of Occurrence ◽  
Global Circulation ◽  
Global Circulation Models ◽  
Northern Areas ◽  
Key Species ◽  
Business As Usual

Anthropogenic climate change is already affecting marine ecosystems and the responses of living-resources to warming waters are various, ranging from the modifications in the abundance of key species to phenologic and biogeographic shifts. Here, we used a recently developed Ecological Niche Model (ENM) to evaluate the potential effects of global climate change on the future geographical distribution of the European anchovy. We first modelled the ecological niche (sensu Hutchinson) of the fish and projected its future spatial range using new IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs) scenarios and five of the latest generation of ocean-atmosphere global circulation models. We chose this multi-model and multi-scenario approach to evaluate the range of possible trajectories until the end of the century. Our projections indicate that substantial poleward shifts in the probability of anchovy occurrence are very likely and highlight areas where European anchovy fisheries are forecasted to change most. Whatever the warming scenario, our results project a reduction in the probability of occurrence in all the regions located under 48°N and an increase in more northern areas. However, increases or decreases in the probability of occurrence are greater under the “business-as-usual” scenario RCP8.5 than under the low-emission scenario RCP2.6.

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