Estimating Climatically Relevant Singular Vectors for Decadal Predictions of the Atlantic Ocean

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 109-123 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Rowan Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Small Perturbations ◽  
Singular Vectors ◽  
Meridional Overturning ◽  
Ocean Observing

Abstract A key aspect in designing an efficient decadal prediction system is ensuring that the uncertainty in the ocean initial conditions is sampled optimally. Here one strategy for addressing this issue is considered by investigating the growth of optimal perturbations in the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3) global climate model (GCM). More specifically, climatically relevant singular vectors (CSVs)—the small perturbations of which grow most rapidly for a specific set of initial conditions—are estimated for decadal time scales in the Atlantic Ocean. It is found that reliable CSVs can be estimated by running a large ensemble of integrations of the GCM. Amplification of the optimal perturbations occurs for more than 10 yr, and possibly up to 40 yr. The identified regions for growing perturbations are found to be in the far North Atlantic, and these perturbations cause amplification through an anomalous meridional overturning circulation response. Additionally, this type of analysis potentially informs the design of future ocean observing systems by identifying the sensitive regions where small uncertainties in the ocean state can grow maximally. Although these CSVs are expensive to compute, ways in which the process could be made more efficient in the future are identified.

Multiyear predictability of extratropical North Atlantic sea surface temperatures in hindcasts initialized with wind stress anomalies

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annika Reintges ◽  
Mojib Latif ◽  
Mohammad Hadi Bordbar ◽  
Wonsun Park
Keyword(s):  
Wind Stress ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Heat Content ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sst Anomalies

<p>Multiyear to decadal predictability of the North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) is commonly attributed to buoyancy-forced changes of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and associated poleward heat transport. Here we investigate the role of the wind stress anomalies in decadal hindcasts for the prediction of annual extratropical North Atlantic SST anomalies. A global climate model is forced by ERA-interim wind stress anomalies over the period 1979-2017. The resulting climate states serve as initial conditions for the decadal hindcasts. We find significant skill in predicting annual SST anomalies over the central extratropical North Atlantic with anomaly correlation coefficients exceeding 0.6 at lead times of 4 to 7 years. The skill of annual SSTs is basically insensitive to the calendar month of initialization. This skill is potentially linked to a gyre-driven upper-ocean heat content anomaly that leads anomalous SSTs by several years.</p>

scholarly journals A stable Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in a changing North Atlantic Ocean since the 1990s

2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (48) ◽  
pp. eabc7836
Author(s):  
Yao Fu ◽  
Feili Li ◽  
Johannes Karstensen ◽  
Chunzai Wang
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
North Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
The Past ◽  
Meridional Overturning

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is crucially important to global climate. Model simulations suggest that the AMOC may have been weakening over decades. However, existing array-based AMOC observations are not long enough to capture multidecadal changes. Here, we use repeated hydrographic sections in the subtropical and subpolar North Atlantic, combined with an inverse model constrained using satellite altimetry, to jointly analyze AMOC and hydrographic changes over the past three decades. We show that the AMOC state in the past decade is not distinctly different from that in the 1990s in the North Atlantic, with a remarkably stable partition of the subpolar overturning occurring prominently in the eastern basins rather than in the Labrador Sea. In contrast, profound hydrographic and oxygen changes, particularly in the subpolar North Atlantic, are observed over the same period, suggesting a much higher decoupling between the AMOC and ocean interior property fields than previously thought.

scholarly journals An improved parameterization of tidal mixing for ocean models

2014 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 211-224 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Schmittner ◽  
G. D. Egbert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Tidal Mixing ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Microstructure Measurements ◽  
High Resolution Bathymetry ◽  
Diurnal Tides

Abstract. Two modifications to an existing scheme of tidal mixing are implemented in the coarse resolution ocean component of a global climate model. First, the vertical distribution of energy flux out of the barotropic tide is determined using high resolution bathymetry. This shifts the levels of mixing higher up in the water column and leads to a stronger mid-depth meridional overturning circulation in the model. Second, the local dissipation efficiency for diurnal tides is assumed to be larger than that for the semi-diurnal tides poleward of 30°. Both modifications are shown to improve agreement with observational estimates of diapycnal diffusivities based on microstructure measurements and circulation indices. We also assess impacts of different spatial distributions of the barotropic energy loss. Estimates based on satellite altimetry lead to larger diffusivities in the deep ocean and hence a stronger deep overturning circulation in our climate model that is in better agreement with observation based estimates compared to those based on a tidal model.

Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled GCM: Forecast Skill and Optimal Perturbations Using Linear Inverse Modeling

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (14) ◽  
pp. 3960-3978 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ed Hawkins ◽  
Rowan Sutton
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Inverse Modeling ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Initial Growth ◽  
Far North ◽  
Basin Scale ◽  
Decadal Predictability

Abstract The decadal predictability of three-dimensional Atlantic Ocean anomalies is examined in a coupled global climate model [the third climate configuration of the Met Office Unified Model (HadCM3)] using a linear inverse modeling (LIM) approach. It is found that the evolution of temperature and salinity in the Atlantic, and the strength of the meridional overturning circulation (MOC), can be effectively described by a linear dynamical system forced by white noise. The forecasts produced using this linear model are more skillful than other reference forecasts for several decades. Furthermore, significant nonnormal amplification is found under several different norms. The regions from which this growth occurs are found to be fairly shallow and located in the far North Atlantic. Initially, anomalies in the Nordic seas impact the MOC and the anomalies then grow to fill the entire Atlantic basin, especially at depth, over one to three decades. It is found that the structure of the optimal initial condition for amplification is sensitive to the norm employed, but the initial growth seems to be dominated by MOC-related basin-scale changes, irrespective of the choice of norm. The consistent identification of the far North Atlantic as the most sensitive region for small perturbations suggests that additional observations in this region would be optimal for constraining decadal climate predictions.

scholarly journals The Global Climate Response to Lowering Surface Orography of Antarctica and the Importance of Atmosphere–Ocean Coupling

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (11) ◽  
pp. 4137-4153 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hansi K. A. Singh ◽  
Cecilia M. Bitz ◽  
Dargan M. W. Frierson
Keyword(s):  
Energy Transport ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
System Response ◽  
The Antarctic

Abstract A global climate model is used to study the effect of flattening the orography of the Antarctic Ice Sheet on climate. A general result is that the Antarctic continent and the atmosphere aloft warm, while there is modest cooling globally. The large local warming over Antarctica leads to increased outgoing longwave radiation, which drives anomalous southward energy transport toward the continent and cooling elsewhere. Atmosphere and ocean both anomalously transport energy southward in the Southern Hemisphere. Near Antarctica, poleward energy and momentum transport by baroclinic eddies strengthens. Anomalous southward cross-equatorial energy transport is associated with a northward shift in the intertropical convergence zone. In the ocean, anomalous southward energy transport arises from a slowdown of the upper cell of the oceanic meridional overturning circulation and a weakening of the horizontal ocean gyres, causing sea ice in the Northern Hemisphere to expand and the Arctic to cool. Comparison with a slab-ocean simulation confirms the importance of ocean dynamics in determining the climate system response to Antarctic orography. This paper concludes by briefly presenting a discussion of the relevance of these results to climates of the past and to future climate scenarios.

scholarly journals Impacts of Parameterized Langmuir Turbulence and Nonbreaking Wave Mixing in Global Climate Simulations

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (12) ◽  
pp. 4752-4775 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yalin Fan ◽  
Stephen M. Griffies
Keyword(s):  
Mixed Layer ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Mixed Layer Depth ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Ocean Wave ◽  
Wave Mixing ◽  
Langmuir Turbulence ◽  
Climate Simulations

Abstract The impacts of parameterized upper-ocean wave mixing on global climate simulations are assessed through modification to Large et al.’s K-profile ocean boundary layer parameterization (KPP) in a coupled atmosphere–ocean–wave global climate model. The authors consider three parameterizations and focus on impacts to high-latitude ocean mixed layer depths and related ocean diagnostics. The McWilliams and Sullivan parameterization (MS2000) adds a Langmuir turbulence enhancement to the nonlocal component of KPP. It is found that the Langmuir turbulence–induced mixing provided by this parameterization is too strong in winter, producing overly deep mixed layers, and of minimal impact in summer. The later Smyth et al. parameterization modifies MS2000 by adding a stratification effect to restrain the turbulence enhancement under weak stratification conditions (e.g., winter) and to magnify the enhancement under strong stratification conditions. The Smyth et al. scheme improves the simulated winter mixed layer depth in the simulations herein, with mixed layer deepening in the Labrador Sea and shoaling in the Weddell and Ross Seas. Enhanced vertical mixing through parameterized Langmuir turbulence, coupled with enhanced lateral transport associated with parameterized mesoscale and submesoscale eddies, is found to be a key element for improving mixed layer simulations. Secondary impacts include strengthening the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and reducing the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. The Qiao et al. nonbreaking wave parameterization is the third scheme assessed here. It adds a wave orbital velocity to the Reynolds stress calculation and provides the strongest summer mixed layer deepening in the Southern Ocean among the three experiments, but with weak impacts during winter.

scholarly journals The Role of Stratification-Dependent Mixing for the Stability of the Atlantic Overturning in a Global Climate Model*

2007 ◽  
Vol 37 (11) ◽  
pp. 2672-2681 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ben Marzeion ◽  
Anders Levermann ◽  
Juliette Mignot
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Buoyancy Frequency ◽  
Freshwater Flux ◽  
The North ◽  
Vertical Diffusivity ◽  
Freshwater Forcing

Abstract Using the “CLIMBER-3α” coupled climate model of intermediate complexity, the effect of a stratification-dependent vertical diffusivity on the sensitivity of the Atlantic Ocean meridional overturning circulation to perturbations in freshwater forcing is investigated. The vertical diffusivity κ is calculated as κ ∼ N−α, where N is the local buoyancy frequency and the parameter α is a measure of the sensitivity of the vertical diffusivity to changes in stratification. Independent of α, the stratification of the deep ocean is weakly increased as a response to an anomalous freshwater flux in the North Atlantic in these experiments. In the region of freshwater forcing and north of it this is caused by the freshwater anomaly itself, but farther south it is associated with anomalously warm surface waters caused by a reduction of the northward oceanic heat transport. Subsequently, and in opposition to results from previous studies, the overturning is reduced by the anomalous freshwater flux, independent of the choice of α. However, the amount of reduction in overturning following a freshwater perturbation is found to depend critically on the choice of the mixing sensitivity α. If α < αcr, the response is similar to the model’s response using constant vertical diffusivity (α = 0). For α > αcr, a sharp increase of the sensitivity is found. The value of αcr is found to be between 0.5 and 1. A general feedback is proposed explaining this threshold behavior: if α is large, both positive and negative perturbations of stratification are amplified by associated changes in diffusivity. In the experiments presented here, this enhances the initial positive stratification anomaly in northern high latitudes, which is created by the anomalous freshwater flux. As a result, convection is strongly reduced, and the overturning is significantly weakened.

scholarly journals AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections

2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pepijn Bakker ◽  
Andreas Schmittner
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Uncertainty Assessment ◽  
Global Climate Models ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation

Abstract. State-of-the-science global climate models show that global warming is likely to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While such models are arguably the best tools to perform AMOC projections, they do not allow a comprehensive uncertainty assessment because of limited computational resources. Here we present an AMOC-emulator, a box model with a number of free parameters that can be tuned to mimic the sensitivity of the AMOC to climate change of a specific global climate model. The AMOC-emulator (M-AMOC1.0) is applied to simulations of global warming and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, performed with an intermediate complexity model. Predictive power of the AMOC-emulator is shown by comparison with a number of additional warming and Greenland Ice Sheet melt scenario that have not been used in the tuning of the AMOC-emulator, highlighting the potential of the AMOC-emulator to assess the uncertainty in AMOC projections.

scholarly journals The Hydrologic Feedback Pathway for Land–Climate Coupling

2006 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 857-867 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul A. Dirmeyer
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Signal Transmission ◽  
Hydrologic Cycle ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
The Impact

Abstract The impact of improvements in land surface initialization and specification of observed rainfall in global climate model simulations of boreal summer are examined to determine how the changes propagate around the hydrologic cycle in the coupled land–atmosphere system. On the global scale, about 70% of any imparted signal in the hydrologic cycle is lost in the transition from atmosphere to land, and 70% of the remaining signal is lost from land to atmosphere. This means that globally, less than 10% of the signal of any change survives the complete circuit of the hydrologic cycle in this model. Regionally, there is a great deal of variability. Specification of observed precipitation to the land component of the climate model strongly communicates its signal to soil wetness in rainy regions, but predictive skill in evapotranspiration arises primarily in dry regions. A maximum in signal transmission to model precipitation exists in between, peaking where mean rainfall rates are 1.5–2 mm day−1. It appears that the nature of the climate system inherently limits to these regions the potential impact on prediction of improvements in the ability of models to simulate the water cycle. Land initial conditions impart a weaker signal on the system than replacement of precipitation, so a weaker response is realized in the system, focused mainly in dry regions.

scholarly journals An improved parameterization of tidal mixing for ocean models

2013 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 4475-4509 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Schmittner ◽  
G. D. Egbert
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Model ◽  
Deep Ocean ◽  
Meridional Overturning Circulation ◽  
Tidal Mixing ◽  
Overturning Circulation ◽  
Microstructure Measurements ◽  
High Resolution Bathymetry ◽  
Diurnal Tides

Abstract. Two modifications to an existing scheme of tidal mixing are implemented in the coarse resolution ocean component of a global climate model. First, the vertical distribution of energy flux out of the barotropic tide is determined using high resolution bathymetry. This shifts the levels of mixing higher up in the water column and leads to a stronger mid-depth meridional overturning circulation in the model. Second, the local dissipation efficiency for diurnal tides is assumed to be larger than that for the semi-diurnal tides poleward of 30°. Both modifications are shown to improve agreement with observational estimates of diapycnal diffusivities based on microstructure measurements and circulation indices. We also assess impacts of different spatial distribution of the barotropic energy loss. Estimates based on satellite altimetry lead to larger diffusivities in the deep ocean and hence a stronger deep overturning circulation in our climate model that is in better agreement with observations compared to those based on a tidal model.

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