Estimating Annual Numbers of Atlantic Hurricanes Missing from the HURDAT Database (1878–1965) Using Ship Track Density

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (6) ◽  
pp. 1736-1746 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
Thomas R. Knutson
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Ship Traffic ◽  
Atlantic Hurricane ◽  
Strongly Connected ◽  
Activity Measures ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Atlantic Hurricanes ◽  
The Impact

Abstract This study assesses the impact of imperfect sampling in the presatellite era (between 1878 and 1965) on North Atlantic hurricane activity measures and on the long-term trends in those measures. The results indicate that a substantial upward adjustment of hurricane counts may be needed prior to 1965 to account for likely “missed” hurricanes due to sparse density of reporting ship traffic. After adjusting for the estimate of missed hurricanes in the basin, the long-term (1878–2008) trend in hurricane counts changes from significantly positive to no significant change (with a nominally negative trend). The adjusted hurricane count record is more strongly connected to the difference between main development region (MDR) sea surface temperature (SST) and tropical-mean SST than with MDR SST. These results do not support the hypothesis that the warming of the tropical North Atlantic due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions has caused Atlantic hurricane frequency to increase.

scholarly journals Climatology and Long-Term Trends in the Stratospheric Temperature and Wind Using ERA5

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (23) ◽  
pp. 4923
Author(s):  
Michal Kozubek ◽  
Jan Laštovička ◽  
Radek Zajicek
Keyword(s):  
North Atlantic ◽  
Middle Atmosphere ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Quasi Biennial Oscillation ◽  
Stratospheric Temperature ◽  
Wind Climatology ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Biennial Oscillation

This study analyses long-term trends in temperature and wind climatology based on ERA5 data. We study climatology and trends separately for every decade from 1980 to 2020 and their changes during this period. This study is focused on the pressure levels between 100–1 hPa, which essentially covers the whole stratosphere. We also analyze the impact of the sudden stratospheric warmings (SSW), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). This helps us to find details of climatology and trend behavior in the stratosphere in connection to these phenomena. ERA5 is one of the newest reanalysis, which is widely used for the middle atmosphere. We identify the largest differences which occur between 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 in both temperature climatology and trends. We suggest that these differences could relate to the different occurrence frequency of SSWs in 1990–2000 versus 2000–2010.

Long-Term Trends of Air Temperature Changes in Industrial and Economic Centres of North-Western and Central Federal Districts of Russia and Their Causes

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 56-63
Author(s):  
V.V. Drozdov ◽  
A.V. Kosenko
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Winter Period ◽  
North West ◽  
The North ◽  
Federal Districts ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The Impact

Carried out the review and analysis of long-term variability of mean annual and mean during winter temperature in 13 major administrative and industrial centers of the North-West and Central federal district – Murmansk, Arkhangelsk, Petrozavodsk, St. Petersburg, Pskov, Novgorod, Kaliningrad, Moscow, Smolensk, Tambov, Kostroma, Kursk and Voronezh. On the basis of the method of cluster analysis identified the major regional characteristics variability in air temperature. An assessment of the correlation between the dynamics of the 4 values of climatic indices of atmospheric circulation over the North Atlantic – NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and long-term changes in air temperature. Identified and analyzed interannual trends cooling trend over the winter period. Presented a preliminary assessment of the intensity of the impact of changes in temperature conditions on industry and the economy of the North-West and central federal districts in relation to a possible cooling.

Preaching and Sermons

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert H. Ellison
Keyword(s):  
Eighteenth Century ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Religious Revival ◽  
Early Nineteenth Century ◽  
Denominational Identity ◽  
The North ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The One ◽  
The Impact

Prompted by the convulsions of the late eighteenth century and inspired by the expansion of evangelicalism across the North Atlantic world, Protestant Dissenters from the 1790s eagerly subscribed to a millennial vision of a world transformed through missionary activism and religious revival. Voluntary societies proliferated in the early nineteenth century to spread the gospel and transform society at home and overseas. In doing so, they engaged many thousands of converts who felt the call to share their experience of personal conversion with others. Though social respectability and business methods became a notable feature of Victorian Nonconformity, the religious populism of the earlier period did not disappear and religious revival remained a key component of Dissenting experience. The impact of this revitalization was mixed. On the one hand, growth was not sustained in the long term and, to some extent, involvement in interdenominational activity undermined denominational identity; on the other hand, Nonconformists gained a social and political prominence they had not enjoyed since the middle of the seventeenth century and their efforts laid the basis for the twentieth-century explosion of evangelicalism in Africa, Asia, and South America.

scholarly journals Stability of temperatures from TIMED/SABER v1.07 (2002–2009) and Aura/MLS v2.2 (2004–2009) compared with OH(6-2) temperatures observed at Davis Station, Antarctica

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (9) ◽  
pp. 21547-21565 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. R. French ◽  
F. J. Mulligan
Keyword(s):  
Cold Bias ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Ground Station ◽  
Volume Emission ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Miss Distance ◽  
Hydroxyl Layer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract. Temperature profiles from two satellite instruments – TIMED/SABER and Aura/MLS – have been used to calculate hydroxyl-layer equivalent temperatures for comparison with values measured from OH(6-2) emission lines observed by a ground-based spectrometer located at Davis Station, Antarctica (68° S, 78° E). The profile selection criteria – <500 km from the ground station and solar zenith angles >97° – yielded a total of 2359 SABER profiles over 8 years (2002–2009) and 7407 MLS profiles over 5.5 years (2004–2009). The availability of simultaneous OH volume emission rate (VER) profiles from the SABER (OH-B channel) enabled an assessment of the impact of several different weighting functions in the calculation of OH-equivalent temperatures. The maximum difference between all derived hydroxyl layer equivalent temperatures was less than 3 K. Restricting the miss-distance and miss-time criteria showed little effect on the bias, suggesting that the OH layer is relatively uniform over the spatial and temporal scales considered. However, a significant trend was found in the bias between SABER and Davis OH of ~0.7 K/year over the 8-year period with SABER becoming warmer compared with the Davis OH temperatures. In contrast, Aura MLS exhibited a cold bias of 9.9 ± 0.4 K compared with Davis OH, but importantly, the bias remained constant over the 2004–2009 year period examined. The difference in bias behaviour of the two satellites has significant implications for multi-annual and long-term studies using their data.

The impact of non-ideality on reconstructing spatial and temporal variations of aerosol acidity with multiphase buffer theory

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yafang Cheng ◽  
Guangjie Zheng ◽  
Hang Su ◽  
Siwen Wang ◽  
Andrea Pozzer
Keyword(s):  
Molar Fraction ◽  
Temporal Variations ◽  
Spatial Variations ◽  
Acid Dissociation ◽  
Acid Dissociation Constant ◽  
Aerosol Acidity ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Factor C ◽  
The Impact

&lt;p&gt;Aerosol acidity is a key parameter in atmospheric aqueous chemistry and strongly influence the interactions of air pollutants and ecosystem. The recently proposed multiphase buffer theory provides a framework to reconstruct long-term trends and spatial variations of aerosol pH based on the effective acid dissociation constant of ammonia (K&lt;sub&gt;a,NH3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;*&lt;/sup&gt;). However, non-ideality in aerosol droplets is a major challenge limiting its broad applications. Here, we introduced a non-ideality correction factor (c&lt;sub&gt;ni&lt;/sub&gt;) and investigated its governing factors. We found that besides relative humidity (RH) and temperature, c&lt;sub&gt;ni&lt;/sub&gt; is mainly determined by the molar fraction of NO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; in aqueous-phase anions, due to different NH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;+&lt;/sup&gt; activity coefficients between (NH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;)&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;SO&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;- and NH&lt;sub&gt;4&lt;/sub&gt;NO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;-dominated aerosols. A parameterization method is thus proposed to estimate c&lt;sub&gt;ni&lt;/sub&gt; at given RH, temperature and NO&lt;sub&gt;3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;-&lt;/sup&gt; fraction, and is validated against long-term observations and global simulations. In the ammonia-buffered regime, with c&lt;sub&gt;ni&lt;/sub&gt; correction the buffer theory can well reproduce the K&lt;sub&gt;a,NH3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;*&lt;/sup&gt; predicted by comprehensive thermodynamic models, with root-mean-square deviation ~0.1 and correlation coefficient ~1. Note that, while c&lt;sub&gt;ni&lt;/sub&gt; is needed to predict K&lt;sub&gt;a,NH3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;*&lt;/sup&gt; levels, it is usually not the dominant contributor to its variations, as ~90% of the temporal or spatial variations in K&lt;sub&gt;a,NH3&lt;/sub&gt;&lt;sup&gt;*&lt;/sup&gt; is due to variations in aerosol water and temperature.&lt;/p&gt;

Impacts of national parks on tourism: a case study from a prominent alpine national park

2009 ◽  
pp. 103-120
Author(s):  
Michael Getzner
Keyword(s):  
Development Strategy ◽  
National Parks ◽  
National Park ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Positive Trend ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Overnight Stays

-National parks and other categories of protected areas are often assumed to enhance regional economic development due to park tourism. The current study attempts to estimate the impact of the Hohe Tauern national park (Austria) on tourism by exploring whether and to what extent the national park may have had an influence on tourism development. For most national park communities, the results suggest that the establishment of the national park had some impact by enforcing an already positive trend or by weakening or reversing a negative trend of tourism. However, breakpoint tests exhibit turning points up to several years after the establishment of the park, indicating that taking a national park as the basis for tourism development is a medium to long term development strategy. In the short term, the impact of a national park on tourism is not measurable. Tourism increased by 1 to 3% annually after the breakpoint, indicating that the establishment of a national park has to be incorporated into the tourism and development strategy of a region right from the start. The causal relationship between the establishment of the national park and tourism development may be weak, in particular in communities where the difference between the actual and the forecast numbers of overnight stays is small. Marketing national park tourism and building up a brand or distinctive label may therefore contribute to regional development particularly in the long term.Key words: Tourism, national park, protected area, time series, stationarity, breakpoint test, ARIMA.JEL classifications: R110, L830, C220.Parole chiave: Turismo, parco nazionale, area protetta, serie temporale, stazionarietŕ, test di breakpoint, ARIMA.

scholarly journals Effectiveness of Irrigation Access on Sticky Rice Productivity: Evidence from Lao PDR

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (20) ◽  
pp. 5839 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bouasone Sengsourivong ◽  
Masaru Ichihashi
Keyword(s):  
Irrigation System ◽  
Lao Pdr ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Total Production ◽  
Rice Productivity ◽  
Monitoring Procedure ◽  
Local Farmer ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact

This study estimates the impact of irrigation on household sticky rice productivity in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR) by applying propensity score matching (PSM) and the difference-in-differences (DID) method. This paper utilizes panel data from the Lao Expenditure and Consumption Survey (LECS) from 2003 to 2013. The results show that the average sales value and total production of sticky rice for irrigated households is greater than those for non-irrigated households by around 36 to 38% per season. Moreover, irrigated households experience improved sticky rice productivity of approximately 2.44 tons per hectare, per season, compared to non-irrigated households. In particular, compared to households with access to irrigation in one period of the surveys, households with access to irrigation in two periods of the surveys have nearly double the sticky rice productivity. Therefore, long-term access to irrigation is more effective for sticky rice productivity. However, we cannot find any evidence to support the impact of irrigation on household consumption. Some policy implications that can be derived from this research are that farmers should be intensively promoted to make the most use of irrigation, development of irrigation system is highly needed, and to ensure effectiveness of irrigation utilization local farmer involvement in monitoring procedure of irrigation is necessary.

scholarly journals A májfunkció romlásának rizikófaktorai sikeres vesetranszplantációt követően

2019 ◽  
Vol 160 (5) ◽  
pp. 186-190
Author(s):  
Bernadett Borda ◽  
Attila Nemes ◽  
Csaba Lengyel ◽  
Tamás Várkonyi ◽  
Ferenc Rárosi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Liver Function ◽  
Immunosuppressive Therapy ◽  
Liver Enzymes ◽  
Graft Loss ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Allograft Function ◽  
The Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract: Introduction: Increase of liver function is one of the most common complications after kidney transplantation due to the use of immunosuppressive therapy and hyperlipidemia in addition to hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection. Method: Following the selection criteria (n = 59), the study is based on applied immunosuppressive therapy, baseline data of patients, further correlation between HCV and liver function deterioration. Patients were subjected to fasting laboratory examination to monitor serum electrolytes, uric acid and albumin levels. We looked at the effects of immunosuppressive therapy on the lipids (TG, TC, HDL, LDL) and liver enzymes (GOT, GPT, ALP, GGT). The analysis of the relationship between lipids and liver enzymes was also included in our study. Results: The data basics were not significantly different between the tacrolimus and the cyclosporine groups. In the laboratory results, Mg levels were significantly different between the two groups (p = 0.044). The impact of HCV on the liver function was significantly different on GGT (p = 0.008). We examed the lipids and liver function level between the tacrolimus and the patients receiving cyclosporine-based immunosuppression and the total cholesterol (p = 0.005) and GOT (p = 0.05) were significantly different between the two groups. Hyperlipidemia was associated with 26% of patients taking tacrolimus-based immunosuppression, and 89% of those receiving cyclosporine; the difference was significant (p = 0.002). Regarding the effect of hyperlipidemia on liver enzymes, ALP (p = 0.006) and GGT (p = 0.0001) were significantly higher. Conclusion: Increases in hepatic enzymes, ALT and GGT indicate the damage to hepatocytes. Beside the increase of liver function, which is the main risk factor in hepatitis on HCV soil, the applied immunosuppressive therapy and hyperlipidemia lead to degradation of allograft function and long-term graft loss. Orv hetil. 2019; 160(5): 186–190.

scholarly journals Population structure and spatial distribution of porbeagles (Lamna nasus) in Irish waters

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (6) ◽  
pp. 1581-1590 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luke W J Cameron ◽  
William K Roche ◽  
Jonathan D R Houghton ◽  
Paul J Mensink
Keyword(s):  
Population Structure ◽  
Spatial Distribution ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
The North ◽  
Aggregation Site ◽  
Show Evidence ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Almost All

Abstract Porbeagles throughout the North Atlantic have experienced severe population decline through overfishing, with the northeastern population listed as critically endangered. Management of this population is constrained by the paucity of data on porbeagle population structure, distribution and behaviour in this region. Here we use a long-term (47 year) Irish capture-mark-recapture dataset to investigate the population structure, spatial distribution and seasonal movements of this species. From 1970–2017, a total of 268 sharks (9 recaptures) were ID tagged, with most individuals likely being juvenile based on length at maturity estimates (mean total length = 143.9 cm, SD = 35.4). Almost all captures were recorded at three distinct locations near angling hubs along the south, west and north coasts with catches peaking in August. Long-term trends in capture date indicated a shift towards earlier capture dates in the northern site (n = 153). Our findings suggest Irish waters may act as a persistent summer aggregation site for juveniles, which show evidence for seasonal site fidelity, returning to nearby locations between years. These findings demonstrate the utility of such programmes, which can be implemented, with minimal expense by engaging with the angling sector, to elucidate the population structure and distribution of wide-ranging fish species.

scholarly journals Stability of temperatures from TIMED/SABER v1.07 (2002–2009) and Aura/MLS v2.2 (2004–2009) compared with OH(6-2) temperatures observed at Davis Station, Antarctica

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (23) ◽  
pp. 11439-11446 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. J. R. French ◽  
F. J. Mulligan
Keyword(s):  
Cold Bias ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Ground Station ◽  
Volume Emission ◽  
The Difference ◽  
Miss Distance ◽  
Hydroxyl Layer ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Long Term Studies

Abstract. Temperature profiles from two satellite instruments – TIMED/SABER and Aura/MLS – have been used to calculate hydroxyl-layer equivalent temperatures for comparison with values measured from OH(6-2) emission lines observed by a ground-based spectrometer located at Davis Station, Antarctica (68° S, 78° E). The profile selection criteria – miss-distance <500 km from the ground station and solar zenith angles >97° – yielded a total of 2359 SABER profiles over 8 years (2002–2009) and 7407 MLS profiles over 5.5 years (2004–2009). The availability of simultaneous OH volume emission rate (VER) profiles from the SABER (OH-B channel) enabled an assessment of the impact of several different weighting functions in the calculation of OH-equivalent temperatures. The maximum difference between all derived hydroxyl layer equivalent temperatures was less than 3 K. Restricting the miss-distance and miss-time criteria showed little effect on the bias, suggesting that the OH layer is relatively uniform over the spatial and temporal scales considered. However, a significant trend was found in the bias between SABER and Davis OH of ~0.7 K/year over the 8-year period with SABER becoming warmer compared with the Davis OH temperatures. In contrast, Aura/MLS exhibited a cold bias of 9.9 ± 0.4 K compared with Davis OH, but importantly, the bias remained constant over the 2004–2009 year period examined. The difference in bias behaviour of the two satellites has significant implications for multi-annual and long-term studies using their data.

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