scholarly journals Convective Snowbands Downstream of the Rocky Mountains in an Environment with Conditional, Dry Symmetric, and Inertial Instabilities

2010 ◽  
Vol 138 (12) ◽  
pp. 4416-4438 ◽  
Author(s):  
Russ S. Schumacher ◽  
David M. Schultz ◽  
John A. Knox
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Negative Potential ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Major Band ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Individual Bands

Abstract Convective snowbands moved slowly over Wyoming and northern Colorado on 16–17 February 2007 and produced up to 71 mm (2.8 in.) of snow that was unpredicted by operational numerical weather prediction models and human forecasters. The northwest–southeast-oriented bands lasted for over 6 h, comprising both a single major band (more than 30 km wide) and multiple minor bands (about 10 km wide). The convective bands initiated within the ascending branch of a secondary circulation associated with both near-surface and elevated frontogenesis, but the bands remained nearly stationary while the near-surface frontogenesis moved quickly equatorward. The bands occurred downstream of complex terrain on the anticyclonic-shear side of a midlevel jet streak, where conditional, dry symmetric (negative potential vorticity), and inertial (negative absolute vorticity) instabilities were present. To determine the mechanisms responsible for the development and organization of these bands, simulations using a convection-permitting numerical model are conducted. In contrast to the operational models, these simulations are able to produce convective bands in the same area and at about the same time as that observed. The simulated bands occurred in an environment with a nearly well-mixed, baroclinic boundary layer, positive convective available potential energy, and widespread negative potential vorticity. Individual bands initiated on the low-momentum side of vorticity banners downstream of mountains, and in association with frontogenetical ascent along two baroclinic zones. In addition, ascent caused by both frontogenesis and banded moist convection produced additional narrow regions of negative vorticity by transporting low-momentum air upward and creating strong horizontal gradients in wind speed. This event is similar to other observed instances of banded convection in the western United States on the anticyclonic-shear side of strong mid- and upper-tropospheric jets in environments lacking large-scale saturation. In contrast, these events differ from previously published banded precipitation events in the comma head of extratropical cyclones and downstream of mountains where large-scale saturation is present.

scholarly journals A Vortical Hot Tower Route to Tropical Cyclogenesis

2006 ◽  
Vol 63 (1) ◽  
pp. 355-386 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. T. Montgomery ◽  
M. E. Nicholls ◽  
T. A. Cram ◽  
A. B. Saunders
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Cyclonic Vorticity ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Vertical Vorticity ◽  
Tropical Depression ◽  
Mesoscale Convective

Abstract A nonhydrostatic cloud model is used to examine the thermomechanics of tropical cyclogenesis under realistic meteorological conditions. Observations motivate the focus on the problem of how a midtropospheric cyclonic vortex, a frequent by-product of mesoscale convective systems during summertime conditions over tropical oceans, may be transformed into a surface-concentrated (warm core) tropical depression. As a first step, the vortex transformation is studied in the absence of vertical wind shear or zonal flow. Within the cyclonic vorticity-rich environment of the mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) embryo, the simulations demonstrate that small-scale cumulonimbus towers possessing intense cyclonic vorticity in their cores [vortical hot towers (VHTs)] emerge as the preferred coherent structures. The VHTs acquire their vertical vorticity through a combination of tilting of MCV horizontal vorticity and stretching of MCV and VHT-generated vertical vorticity. Horizontally localized and exhibiting convective lifetimes on the order of 1 h, VHTs overcome the generally adverse effects of downdrafts by consuming convective available potential energy in their local environment, humidifying the middle and upper troposphere, and undergoing diabatic vortex merger with neighboring towers. During metamorphosis, the VHTs vortically prime the mesoscale environment and collectively mimic a quasi-steady diabatic heating rate within the MCV embryo. A quasi-balanced toroidal (transverse) circulation develops on the system scale that converges cyclonic vorticity of the initial MCV and small-scale vorticity anomalies generated by subsequent tower activity. The VHTs are found to accelerate the spinup of near-surface mean tangential winds relative to an approximate axisymmetric model that excises the VHTs. This upscale growth mechanism appears capable of generating a tropical depression vortex on time scales on the order of 1–2 days, for reasonable parameter choices. Further tests of the VHT paradigm are advocated through diagnoses of operational weather prediction models, higher resolution simulations of the current configuration, examination of disruption scenarios for incipient vortices, and a meteorological field experiment.

scholarly journals Medicane Zorbas: Origin and impact of an uncertain potential vorticity streamer

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Raphael Portmann ◽  
Juan Jesús González-Alemán ◽  
Michael Sprenger ◽  
Heini Wernli
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Thermal Structure ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Medium Range Weather Forecast ◽  
The Mediterranean ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Jet Streak

Abstract. Mediterranean tropical-like cyclones (Medicanes) can have high societal impact and their accurate forecast remains a challenge for numerical weather prediction models. They are often triggered by upper-level potential vorticity (PV) anomalies, such as PV streamers and cut-offs. But knowledge is incomplete about their detailed formation processes and factors limiting their predictability. This study exploits a European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) operational ensemble forecast with an uncertain PV streamer over the Mediterranean, which, three days after initialisation, resulted in an uncertain development of Medicane Zorbas in September 2018. Using an ad-hoc clustering of the ensemble members according to the PV streamer position, it is demonstrated that uncertainty in the initial conditions near an upper-level jet streak over the Gulf of Saint Lawrence is the dominant source of the subsequent uncertainty in the position of the PV streamer over the Mediterranean. The initial condition uncertainty strongly amplifies baroclinically after 18 h in a region of strong quasi-geostrophic forcing for ascent in the left exit of a jet streak over the North Atlantic. The further amplification and downstream propagation of the tropopause-level PV uncertainty leads to a large spread in the position of the PV streamer over the Mediterranean after three days, directly limiting the predictability of the position, thermal structure and evolution of Zorbas. Two low-level airstreams possibly play a key role in linking the uncertainties of the large-scale upper-level flow with meso-scale uncertainties in the cyclone structure. Overall, this study is an illustrative example that uncertainties in large-scale initial conditions can determine the practical predictability limits of a high-impact weather event.

scholarly journals Progress toward the Application of a Localized Particle Filter for Numerical Weather Prediction

2019 ◽  
Vol 147 (4) ◽  
pp. 1107-1126 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jonathan Poterjoy ◽  
Louis Wicker ◽  
Mark Buehner
Keyword(s):  
Data Assimilation ◽  
Particle Filter ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Sequential Monte Carlo ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Coupled Systems ◽  
State Variables ◽  
Numerical Weather

Abstract A series of papers published recently by the first author introduce a nonlinear filter that operates effectively as a data assimilation method for large-scale geophysical applications. The method uses sequential Monte Carlo techniques adopted by particle filters, which make no parametric assumptions for the underlying prior and posterior error distributions. The filter also treats the underlying dynamical system as a set of loosely coupled systems to effectively localize the effect observations have on posterior state estimates. This property greatly reduces the number of particles—or ensemble members—required for its implementation. For these reasons, the method is called the local particle filter. The current manuscript summarizes algorithmic advances made to the local particle filter following recent tests performed over a hierarchy of dynamical systems. The revised filter uses modified vector weight calculations and probability mapping techniques from earlier studies, and new strategies for improving filter stability in situations where state variables are observed infrequently with very accurate measurements. Numerical experiments performed on low-dimensional data assimilation problems provide evidence that supports the theoretical benefits of the new improvements. As a proof of concept, the revised particle filter is also tested on a high-dimensional application from a real-time weather forecasting system at the NOAA/National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL). The proposed changes have large implications for researchers applying the local particle filter for real applications, such as data assimilation in numerical weather prediction models.

scholarly journals Convective response to large-scale forcing in the Tropical Western Pacific simulated by spCAM5 and CanAM4.3

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Mitovski ◽  
Jason N. S. Cole ◽  
Norman A. McFarlane ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Changes in the large-scale environment during convective precipitation events in the Tropical Western Pacific simulated by version 4.3 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM4.3) is compared against those simulated by version 5.0 of the super parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (spCAM5). This is done by compositing sub-hourly output of convective rainfall, convective available potential energy (CAPE), CAPE generation due to large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (dCAPELSFT), and near surface vertical velocity (ω) over the time period May–July 1997. Compared to spCAM5, CanAM4.3 tends to produce more frequent light convective precipitation ( 2 mm h−1). In spCAM5 5 % of convective precipitation events lasted less than 1.5 h and 75 % lasted between 1.5 and 3.0 h while in CanAM4.3 80 % of the events lasted less than 1.5 h. Convective precipitation in spCAM5 is found to be a function of dCAPELSFT and the large-scale near surface ω with variations in ω slightly leading variations in convective precipitation. Convective precipitation in CanAM4.3 does not have the same dependency and instead is found to be a function of CAPE.

scholarly journals Sensitivity of Cloud-Resolving Simulations of Warm-Season Convection to Cloud Microphysics Parameterizations

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (8) ◽  
pp. 2854-2868 ◽  
Author(s):  
Changhai Liu ◽  
Mitchell W. Moncrieff
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Cloud Microphysics ◽  
Mixed Phase ◽  
Fine Grid ◽  
Upper Level ◽  
Heating Profiles ◽  
Microphysical Parameterization

Abstract This paper investigates the effects of cloud microphysics parameterizations on simulations of warm-season precipitation at convection-permitting grid spacing. The objective is to assess the sensitivity of summertime convection predictions to the bulk microphysics parameterizations (BMPs) at fine-grid spacings applicable to the next generation of operational numerical weather prediction models. Four microphysical parameterization schemes are compared: simple ice (Dudhia), four-class mixed phase (Reisner et al.), Goddard five-class mixed phase (Tao and Simpson), and five-class mixed phase with graupel (Reisner et al.). The experimentation involves a 7-day episode (3–9 July 2003) of U.S. midsummer convection under moderate large-scale forcing. Overall, the precipitation coherency manifested as eastward-moving organized convection in the lee of the Rockies is insensitive to the choice of the microphysics schemes, and the latent heating profiles are also largely comparable among the BMPs. The upper-level condensate and cloudiness, upper-level radiative cooling/heating, and rainfall spectrum are the most sensitive, whereas the domain-mean rainfall rate and areal coverage display moderate sensitivity. Overall, the three mixed-phase schemes outperform the simple ice scheme, but a general conclusion about the degree of sophistication in the microphysics treatment and the performance is not achievable.

Atmospheric angular momentum forecasts as novel tests of global numerical weather prediction models

1991 ◽  
Vol 334 (1633) ◽  
pp. 55-92 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Angular Momentum ◽  
Numerical Weather Prediction ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Atmospheric Angular Momentum ◽  
Axial Component ◽  
Practical Applications ◽  
Numerical Weather ◽  
Three Components

The global circulation of the terrestrial atmosphere exhibits fluctuations of considerable amplitude in all three components of its total angular momentum on interannual, seasonal and shorter timescales. The fluctuations must be intimately linked with nonlinear barotropic and baroclinic energetic conversion processes throughout the whole atmosphere and it is advocated that studies of routinely produced determinations of atmospheric angular momentum (AAM) changes be incorporated into systematic diagnostic investigations of large-scale atmospheric flows, AAM fluctuations are generated by dynamical interactions between the atmosphere and the underlying planet. These excite tiny but measurable compensating fluctuations in the rotation vector of the massive solid Earth, thereby ensuring conservation of the angular momentum of the whole system. Forecasts and analyses of changes in AAM from the output of a global numerical weather prediction (GNWP) model constitute a stringent test of the model. Successful forecasts of the axial com ponent of AAM, and hence of irregular non-tidal components of short-term changes in the Earth’s rotation, would find practical applications in various areas of astronomy and geodesy, such as spacecraft navigation. Reported in this paper are the main findings of intercomparisons of analyses and forecasts of changes in all three components of AAM obtained from the operational GNWP models at the United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) and the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), over the period covering the two years 1987 and 1988. Included in the results obtained is the finding that useful forecasts of changes in the axial component of AAM can be made out to 5 days and even slightly longer.

scholarly journals Relative importance of tropopause structure and diabatic heating for baroclinic instability

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 695-712
Author(s):  
Kristine Flacké Haualand ◽  
Thomas Spengler
Keyword(s):  
Potential Vorticity ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Lower Stratosphere ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Polar Vortex ◽  
Dominant Factor ◽  
Latent Heating ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Misrepresentations of wind shear and stratification around the tropopause in numerical weather prediction models can lead to errors in potential vorticity gradients with repercussions for Rossby wave propagation and baroclinic instability. Using a diabatic extension of the linear quasi-geostrophic Eady model featuring a tropopause, we investigate the influence of such discrepancies on baroclinic instability by varying tropopause sharpness and altitude as well as wind shear and stratification in the lower stratosphere, which can be associated with model or data assimilation errors or a downward extension of a weakened polar vortex. We find that baroclinic development is less sensitive to tropopause sharpness than to modifications in wind shear and stratification in the lower stratosphere, where the latter are associated with a net change in the vertical integral of the horizontal potential vorticity gradient across the tropopause. To further quantify the relevance of these sensitivities, we compare these findings to the impact of including mid-tropospheric latent heating. For representative modifications of wind shear, stratification, and latent heating intensity, the sensitivity of baroclinic instability to tropopause structure is significantly less than that to latent heating of different intensities. These findings indicate that tropopause sharpness might be less important for baroclinic development than previously anticipated and that latent heating and the structure in the lower stratosphere could play a more crucial role, with latent heating being the dominant factor.

scholarly journals On the Diurnal Cycle of Heavy Rainfall over the Sichuan Basin during 10–18 August 2020

2021 ◽  
Vol 38 (12) ◽  
pp. 2183-2200
Author(s):  
Rudi Xia ◽  
Yali Luo ◽  
Da-Lin Zhang ◽  
Mingxin Li ◽  
Xinghua Bao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Diurnal Cycle ◽  
Sichuan Basin ◽  
Heavy Rainfall ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Water Vapor Transport ◽  
Inertial Oscillation ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Cold Air ◽  
The Sichuan Basin

AbstractA sustained heavy rainfall event occurred over the Sichuan basin in southwest China during 10–18 August 2020, showing pronounced diurnal rainfall variations with nighttime peak and afternoon minimum values, except on the first day. Results show that the westward extension of the anomalously strong western Pacific subtropical high was conducive to the maintenance of a southerly low-level jet (LLJ) in and to the southeast of the basin, which favored continuous water vapor transport and abnormally high precipitable water in the basin. The diurnal cycle of rainfall over the basin was closely related to the periodic oscillation of the LLJ in both wind speed and direction that was caused by the combination of inertial oscillation and terrain thermal forcing. The nocturnally enhanced rainfall was produced by moist convection mostly initiated during the evening hours over the southwest part of the basin where high convective available potential energy with moister near-surface moist air was present. The convective initiation took place as cold air from either previous precipitating clouds from the western Sichuan Plateau or a larger-scale northerly flow met a warm and humid current from the south. It was the slantwise lifting of the warm, moist airflow above the cold air, often facilitated by southwest vortices and quasi-geostrophic ascent, that released the convective instability and produced heavy rainfall.

scholarly journals Convective response to large-scale forcing in the tropical western Pacific simulated by spCAM5 and CanAM4.3

2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 2107-2117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toni Mitovski ◽  
Jason N. S. Cole ◽  
Norman A. McFarlane ◽  
Knut von Salzen ◽  
Guang J. Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Atmospheric Model ◽  
Western Pacific ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Tropical Western Pacific ◽  
Community Atmosphere Model ◽  
Hourly Output ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract. Changes in the large-scale environment during convective precipitation events in the tropical western Pacific simulated by version 4.3 of the Canadian Atmospheric Model (CanAM4.3) are compared against those simulated by version 5.0 of the super-parameterized Community Atmosphere Model (spCAM5). This is done by compositing sub-hourly output of convective rainfall, convective available potential energy (CAPE), CAPE generation due to large-scale forcing in the free troposphere (dCAPELSFT) and near-surface vertical velocity (ω) over the time period May–July 1997. Compared to spCAM5, CanAM4.3 tends to produce more frequent light convective precipitation (<0.2 mm h−1) and underestimates the frequency of extreme convective precipitation (>2 mm h−1). In spCAM5, 5 % of convective precipitation events lasted less than 1.5 h and 75 % lasted between 1.5 and 3.0 h, while in CanAM4.3 80 % of the events lasted less than 1.5 h. Convective precipitation in spCAM5 is found to be a function of dCAPELSFT and the large-scale near-surface ω with variations in ω slightly leading variations in convective precipitation. Convective precipitation in CanAM4.3 does not have the same dependency and instead is found to be a function of CAPE.

Global Air–Sea Fluxes of Heat, Fresh Water, and Momentum: Energy Budget Closure and Unanswered Questions

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 227-248 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lisan Yu
Keyword(s):  
Surface Energy ◽  
Fresh Water ◽  
Prediction Models ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Ocean Surface ◽  
Surface Radiation ◽  
Global Ocean ◽  
Personal Perspective ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Water Budgets

The ocean interacts with the atmosphere via interfacial exchanges of momentum, heat (via radiation and convection), and fresh water (via evaporation and precipitation). These fluxes, or exchanges, constitute the ocean-surface energy and water budgets and define the ocean's role in Earth's climate and its variability on both short and long timescales. However, direct flux measurements are available only at limited locations. Air–sea fluxes are commonly estimated from bulk flux parameterization using flux-related near-surface meteorological variables (winds, sea and air temperatures, and humidity) that are available from buoys, ships, satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction models, and/or a combination of any of these sources. Uncertainties in parameterization-based flux estimates are large, and when they are integrated over the ocean basins, they cause a large imbalance in the global-ocean budgets. Despite the significant progress that has been made in quantifying surface fluxes in the past 30 years, achieving a global closure of ocean-surface energy and water budgets remains a challenge for flux products constructed from all data sources. This review provides a personal perspective on three questions: First, to what extent can time-series measurements from air–sea buoys be used as benchmarks for accuracy and reliability in the context of the budget closures? Second, what is the dominant source of uncertainties for surface flux products, the flux-related variables or the bulk flux algorithms? And third, given the coupling between the energy and water cycles, precipitation and surface radiation can act as twin budget constraints—are the community-standard precipitation and surface radiation products pairwise compatible?

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