Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk Information

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (8) ◽  
pp. 1133-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Betty Hearn Morrow ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Public ◽  
Local Television ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Hurricane Risk ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

scholarly journals Obstacles to timely emergency messaging for acute incidents

2020 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 425-453
Author(s):  
Jeremy Bernfeld, MPS, CEM
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Emergency Services ◽  
Communication Strategies ◽  
Decision Making Process ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Public ◽  
Protective Actions ◽  
Adverse Impacts ◽  
Emergency Managers

Emergency alerts, warnings, and notifications (AWN) help protect the public by communicating information about impending hazards to encourage protective actions. Three key subsystems compose AWN systems: (1) detection; (2) management; and (3) response. While much research regarding the detection and response subsystems exists, few studies focus on the management subsystem. This subsystem involves emergency managers (EM) receiving and analyzing information about a hazard, deciding whether the hazard poses enough risk to warrant an emergency message, and where appropriate, transmitting that message across available AWN systems. To help improve understanding of this decision-making process, the researcher conducted interviews with EMs responsible for AWN decision-making and issuance, and leveraged participant responses to inform this work. This study details the threat interpretation, organization, technology, and infrastructure limitations that can directly delay or prevent AWN issuance. This work also outlines the adverse impacts on the public, EMs, and emergency services that can follow an AWN, as EMs must weigh these consequences when deciding to issue an emergency message. By outlining these obstacles, this study aims to help inform EMs of the challenges they may face during the critical moments of an incident, so they may better prepare to issue timely emergency messages to protect their communities. The findings gleaned from this research can also help technologists and social scientists better understand the influences their fields have on the EM, so that they may improve upon existing AWN systems and risk communication strategies.

scholarly journals A Mental Models Study of Hurricane Forecast and Warning Production, Communication, and Decision-Making*

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-129 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ann Bostrom ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Heather Lazrus ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Mental Models ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
South Florida ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Action Context ◽  
Risk Decision

Abstract The study reported here explores how to enhance the public value of hurricane forecast and warning information by examining the entire warning process. A mental models research approach is applied to address three risk management tasks critical to warnings for extreme weather events: 1) understanding the risk decision and action context for hurricane warnings, 2) understanding the commonalities and conflicts in interpretations of that context and associated risks, and 3) exploring the practical implications of these insights for hurricane risk communication and management. To understand the risk decision and action context, the study develops a decision-focused model of the hurricane forecast and warning system on the basis of results from individual mental models interviews with forecasters from the National Hurricane Center (n = 4) and the Miami–South Florida Weather Forecast Office (n = 4), media broadcasters (n = 5), and public officials (n = 6), as well as a group decision-modeling session with a subset of the forecasters. Comparisons across professionals reveal numerous shared perceptions, as well as some critical differences. Implications for improving extreme weather event forecast and warning systems and risk communication are threefold: 1) promote thinking about forecast and warning decisions as a system, with informal as well as formal elements; 2) evaluate, coordinate, and consider controlling the proliferation of forecast and warning information products; and 3) further examine the interpretation and representation of uncertainty within the hurricane forecast and warning system as well as for users.

scholarly journals Understanding emergency manager forecast use in severe weather events.

2018 ◽  
pp. 95-105 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sean Ernst ◽  
Daphne LaDue ◽  
Alan Gerard
Keyword(s):  
Critical Incident ◽  
Information Needs ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Relational Trust ◽  
Forecast Uncertainty ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Emergency Manager ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
The Impact

For Emergency Managers (EMs), preparations for severe weather have always relied on accurate, well-communicated National Weather Service (NWS) forecasts. As part of their constant work to improve these forecasts, the NWS has recently begun to develop impact-based products that share forecast uncertainty information with EMs, including the Probabilistic Hazard Information (PHI) tool. However, there is a lack of research investigating what forecast uncertainty information EMs understand, and what information needs exist in the current communication paradigm. This study used the Critical Incident Technique to identify themes from incidents involving weather forecast information that went well, or not so well, from the perspective of the EMs responding to them. In total, 11 EMs from a variety of locales east of the Rockies were interviewed—six of whom were county-level, two city, two state, and one from a school district. We found that EMs sought increased forecast detail as a potential event approached in time and built relational trust in the NWS through repeated interactions. EMs had difficulty preparing for events when they did not have details of the expected impacts, or the likelihood of those impacts, for their regions. In summary, EMs are already starting to work in an uncertainty-friendly frame and could be responsive to the impact details and increased forecaster relations proposed with the PHI tool.

scholarly journals Perception and Comprehension of the Extended Forecast Graphic: A Survey of Broadcast Meteorologists and the Public

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. E221-E236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob R. Reed ◽  
Jason C. Senkbeil
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Low Temperatures ◽  
General Public ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
High And Low Temperatures ◽  
Probability Of Precipitation

Abstract There have been multiple efforts in recent years to simplify visual weather forecast products, with the goal of more efficient risk communication for the general public. Many meteorological forecast products, such as the cone of uncertainty, storm surge graphics, warning polygons, and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks, have created varying levels of public confusion resulting in revisions, modifications, and improvements. However, the perception and comprehension of private weather graphics produced by television stations has been largely overlooked in peer-reviewed research. The goal of this study is to explore how the extended forecast graphic, more commonly known as the 7, 10 day, etc., is utilized by broadcasters and understood by the public. Data were gathered from surveys with the general public and also from broadcast meteorologists. Results suggest this graphic is a source of confusion and highlights a disconnect between the meteorologists producing the graphic and the content prioritized by their audiences. Specifically, timing and intensity of any precipitation or adverse weather events are the two most important variables to consider from the viewpoint of the public. These variables are generally absent from the extended forecast graphic, thus forcing the public to draw their own conclusions, which may differ from what the meteorologist intends to convey. Other results suggest the placement of forecast high and low temperatures, use of probability of precipitation, icon inconsistency, and length of time the graphic is shown also contribute to public confusion and misunderstanding.

Vulnerability beyond Stereotypes: Context and Agency in Hurricane Risk Communication

2012 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 103-109 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heather Lazrus ◽  
Betty H. Morrow ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo
Keyword(s):  
Older Adults ◽  
Focus Groups ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Persons With Disabilities ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
Individual Agency ◽  
Hurricane Impacts ◽  
Hurricane Risk ◽  
Knowledge Attitudes And Practices

Abstract Risk communication may accentuate or alleviate the vulnerability of people who have particular difficulties responding to the threat of hazards such as hurricanes. The process of risk communication involves how hazard information is received, understood, and responded to by individuals and groups. Thus, risk communication and vulnerability interact through peoples' knowledge, attitudes, and practices. This study explores risk communication with several groups that may be at particular risk of hurricane impacts: older adults, newer residents, and persons with disabilities. Focus groups conducted in Miami, Florida, examined how members of these groups express their own vulnerability or agency in terms of receiving, interpreting, and responding to hurricane risk information. Findings indicate that people's interactions with risk information are deeply contextual and are facilitated by their individual agency to cope with their vulnerabilities.

scholarly journals Analyzing Dorian Twitter data to understand how hurricane risk communication changes as threats unfold

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qian Ma ◽  
Barbara Millet
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Risk Communication ◽  
Temporal Regulation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Individual Account ◽  
Message Type ◽  
Communication Modes ◽  
Message Format ◽  
Hurricane Risk ◽  
Descriptive Statistical Analysis

Social media has been widely used for hurricane risk communication but also faces the challenge of providing effective risk messages for the public. This research explores the diffusion of forecast messages on social media for Hurricane Dorian (2019) to understandhow hurricane risk information is created, disseminated, and discussed in many-to-many communication modes. We collected streams of posts from professional Twitter accounts, conducted a descriptive statistical analysis of manually-coded tweets to identify hurricane riskmessage types, performed a network analysis to audit engagement among different types of accounts, and calculated sentiment scores to examine message opinions. The results showed that professional accounts are more likely to post original content than share, among which most of the organizational accounts (including forecasters, emergency management, and news outlets) post in regular intervals with a fixed message format and a neutral opinion while professional individual accounts (e.g. meteorologist, broadcasters) post with no observable temporal regulation, variable forms, and sentiments. However, the forecaster accounts are less engaged than the mediator accounts (i.e. news outlets and professional individual account holders). The study also revealed that under the hurricane risk context, those willing to shareinformation rely more on post timing and expertise of post creators, rather than message type and sentiment.

scholarly journals How Likely is That Chance of Thunderstorms? A Study of How National Weather Service Forecast Offices Use Words of Estimative Probability and What They Mean to the Public

2020 ◽  
pp. 64-78
Author(s):  
Emily D. Lenhardt ◽  
Rachel N. Cross ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Sean R. Ernst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
The Public ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Meteorological Phenomenon ◽  
Weather Service

One of the challenges when communicating forecast information to the public is properly contextualizing uncertainty. No forecast is ever certain, as no meteorological phenomenon is guaranteed to occur. As such, the uncertainty in forecast information should be communicated in a way that makes sense to end users. Previous studies of the communication of probabilistic information suggest that, although the general public are more apt to communicate uncertainty with words of estimative probability (WEPs), they prefer to receive uncertainty information numerically. Other work has suggested that a combination of numbers and WEPs is the best method for communicating probability, but fewer research studies have assessed the communication and interpretation of probabilistic meteorological information. In this study, we code 8900 tweets from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and analyze them to find how forecasters communicate probabilistic forecast information to the public via Twitter. This analysis reveals that WFO messaging is dominated by WEPs, with few numerical descriptions of probability. These WEPs are generally vague, unqualified notions of probability that may impede the public’s ability to interpret the information that forecasters are trying to communicate. Based on this analysis, two publicly fielded surveys also are analyzed in order to understand how participants tend to interpret the most common qualified and unqualified WEPs that WFOs used on Twitter. Though participants generally interpret qualified WEPs more consistently than unqualified WEPs, both categories featured a wide range of interpretations that suggest both types of WEPs are vaguely defined for the general public.

scholarly journals How Loud and Clear Rung the Alarm Bell: The Communication Efforts of WHO on the Beginning of COVID-19 Outbreak

2021 ◽  
pp. 002073142110249
Author(s):  
Huriye Toker
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
International Development ◽  
International Health ◽  
Well Being ◽  
World Health ◽  
The Public ◽  
News Releases ◽  
The Media ◽  
Credible Information ◽  
Health Organization

As seen clearly from the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, health is an important foreign policy and diplomatic issue connected with security, economic well-being, and international development. According to risk communication researchers, effective, transparent, and timely information sharing is the most important tool after vaccines for responding to pandemics. This study aims to start a scholarly discussion on the risk communication efforts of the World Health Organization (WHO) during the COVID-19 outbreak. We analyzed WHO’s communication efforts during the first 3 months of the COVID-19 pandemic. As the leading international health organization, WHO was responsible for providing rapid, up-to-date, and credible information for the public and the media. The selected research items were 42 news releases and statements provided by WHO between December 31, 2019, and March 30, 2020. These were subjected to qualitative and quantitative content analyses using the NVivo 12 qualitative analysis software program for coding. The data were coded under 6 variables (date of publication, topics, frequency, wording of the COVID-19 outbreak, sourcing, and themes of the releases). While 54.7% of WHO's communications were devoted to the COVID-19 outbreak, more than half were not issued until March. That is, instead of early risk communication and clear warnings about the outbreak, WHO acted overcautiously, preferring messages related to solidarity and cooperation during the most devastating pandemic of the 21st century.

Household Evacuation Decision Making and the Benefits of Improved Hurricane Forecasting: Developing a Framework for Assessment

2010 ◽  
Vol 25 (1) ◽  
pp. 207-219 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey K. Lazo ◽  
Donald M. Waldman ◽  
Betty Hearn Morrow ◽  
Jennifer A. Thacher
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Economic Value ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Primary Sources ◽  
Sources Of Information ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Investments ◽  
Improvement Programs ◽  
Hurricane Forecasting ◽  
Survey Research Methods

Abstract Hurricane warnings are the primary sources of information that enable the public to assess the risk and develop responses to threats from hurricanes. These warnings have significantly reduced the number of hurricane-related fatalities in the last several decades. Further investment in the science and implementation of the warning system is a primary mission of the National Weather Service and its partners. It is important that the weather community understand the public’s preferences and values for such investments; yet, there is little empirical information on the use of forecasts in evacuation decision making, the economic value of current forecasts, or the potential use or value for improvements in hurricane forecasts. Such information is needed to evaluate whether improved forecast provision and dissemination offer more benefit to society than alternative public investments. Fundamental aspects of households’ perceptions of hurricane forecasts and warnings and their potential uses of and values for improved hurricane forecast information are examined. The study was designed in part to examine the viability of survey research methods for exploring evacuation decision making and for eliciting values for improved hurricane forecasts and warnings. First, aspects that affect households’ stated likelihood of evacuation are explored, because informing such decisions is one of the primary purposes of hurricane forecasts and warnings. Then, stated-choice valuation methods are used to analyze choices between potential forecast-improvement programs and the accuracy of existing forecasts. From this, the willingness to pay (WTP) for improved forecasts is derived from survey respondents.

scholarly journals Major Risks, Uncertain Outcomes: Making Ensemble Forecasts Work for Multiple Audiences

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1359-1373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel Hogan Carr ◽  
Burrell Montz ◽  
Kathryn Semmens ◽  
Keri Maxfield ◽  
Samantha Connolly ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Water Resource ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
Proper Understanding ◽  
The Public ◽  
Emergency Personnel ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Resource Managers ◽  
Multiple Audiences ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes ◽  
Hydrologic Forecast

Abstract When extreme river levels are possible in a community, effective communication of weather and hydrologic forecasts is critical to protecting life and property. Residents, emergency personnel, and water resource managers need to make timely decisions about how and when to prepare. Uncertainty in forecasting is a critical component of this decision-making, but often poses a confounding factor for public and professional understanding of forecast products. A new suite of products from the National Weather Service’s Hydrologic Ensemble Forecast System (HEFS) provides short- and long-range forecasts, ranging from 6 h to 1 yr, and shows uncertainty in hydrologic forecasts. To understand how various audiences use and interpret ensemble forecasts showing a range of hydrologic forecast possibilities, a research project was conducted using scenario-based focus groups and surveys with community residents, emergency managers, and water resource managers in West Virginia and Maryland. The research assessed the utility of the HEFS products, identified barriers to proper understanding of the products, and suggested modifications to product design that could improve the understandability and accessibility for a range of users. There was a difference between the residential users’ reactions to the HEFS compared to the emergency managers and water resource managers, with the public reacting less favorably to all versions. The emergency managers preferred the revised HEFS products but had suggestions for additional changes, which were incorporated. Features such as interactive text boxes and forecaster’s notes further enhanced the utility and understandability of the products.

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