scholarly journals How Likely is That Chance of Thunderstorms? A Study of How National Weather Service Forecast Offices Use Words of Estimative Probability and What They Mean to the Public

2020 ◽  
pp. 64-78
Author(s):  
Emily D. Lenhardt ◽  
Rachel N. Cross ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Sean R. Ernst ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
General Public ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
The Public ◽  
Probabilistic Information ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Uncertainty Information ◽  
To Receive ◽  
Meteorological Phenomenon ◽  
Weather Service

One of the challenges when communicating forecast information to the public is properly contextualizing uncertainty. No forecast is ever certain, as no meteorological phenomenon is guaranteed to occur. As such, the uncertainty in forecast information should be communicated in a way that makes sense to end users. Previous studies of the communication of probabilistic information suggest that, although the general public are more apt to communicate uncertainty with words of estimative probability (WEPs), they prefer to receive uncertainty information numerically. Other work has suggested that a combination of numbers and WEPs is the best method for communicating probability, but fewer research studies have assessed the communication and interpretation of probabilistic meteorological information. In this study, we code 8900 tweets from the National Weather Service Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and analyze them to find how forecasters communicate probabilistic forecast information to the public via Twitter. This analysis reveals that WFO messaging is dominated by WEPs, with few numerical descriptions of probability. These WEPs are generally vague, unqualified notions of probability that may impede the public’s ability to interpret the information that forecasters are trying to communicate. Based on this analysis, two publicly fielded surveys also are analyzed in order to understand how participants tend to interpret the most common qualified and unqualified WEPs that WFOs used on Twitter. Though participants generally interpret qualified WEPs more consistently than unqualified WEPs, both categories featured a wide range of interpretations that suggest both types of WEPs are vaguely defined for the general public.

scholarly journals Perception and Comprehension of the Extended Forecast Graphic: A Survey of Broadcast Meteorologists and the Public

2020 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. E221-E236 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob R. Reed ◽  
Jason C. Senkbeil
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Low Temperatures ◽  
General Public ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Public Data ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
High And Low Temperatures ◽  
Probability Of Precipitation

Abstract There have been multiple efforts in recent years to simplify visual weather forecast products, with the goal of more efficient risk communication for the general public. Many meteorological forecast products, such as the cone of uncertainty, storm surge graphics, warning polygons, and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) convective outlooks, have created varying levels of public confusion resulting in revisions, modifications, and improvements. However, the perception and comprehension of private weather graphics produced by television stations has been largely overlooked in peer-reviewed research. The goal of this study is to explore how the extended forecast graphic, more commonly known as the 7, 10 day, etc., is utilized by broadcasters and understood by the public. Data were gathered from surveys with the general public and also from broadcast meteorologists. Results suggest this graphic is a source of confusion and highlights a disconnect between the meteorologists producing the graphic and the content prioritized by their audiences. Specifically, timing and intensity of any precipitation or adverse weather events are the two most important variables to consider from the viewpoint of the public. These variables are generally absent from the extended forecast graphic, thus forcing the public to draw their own conclusions, which may differ from what the meteorologist intends to convey. Other results suggest the placement of forecast high and low temperatures, use of probability of precipitation, icon inconsistency, and length of time the graphic is shown also contribute to public confusion and misunderstanding.

Creation and Communication of Hurricane Risk Information

2012 ◽  
Vol 93 (8) ◽  
pp. 1133-1145 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie L. Demuth ◽  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
Betty Hearn Morrow ◽  
Jeffrey K. Lazo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Communication ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Risk Information ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
The Public ◽  
Local Television ◽  
Emergency Managers ◽  
Hurricane Risk ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Reducing loss of life and harm when a hurricane threatens depends on people receiving hurricane risk information that they can interpret and use in protective decisions. To understand and improve hurricane risk communication, this article examines how National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters at the National Hurricane Center and local weather forecast offices, local emergency managers, and local television and radio media create and convey hurricane risk information. Data from in-depth interviews and observational sessions with members of these groups from Greater Miami were analyzed to examine their roles, goals, and interactions, and to identify strengths and challenges in how they communicate with each other and with the public. Together, these groups succeed in partnering with each other to make information about approaching hurricane threats widely available. Yet NWS forecasters sometimes find that the information they provide is not used as they intended; media personnel want streamlined information from NWS and emergency managers that emphasizes the timing of hazards and the recommended response and protective actions; and emergency managers need forecast uncertainty information that can help them plan for different scenarios. Thus, we recommend that warning system partners 1) build understanding of each other's needs and constraints; 2) ensure formalized, yet flexible mechanisms exist for exchanging critical information; 3) improve hurricane risk communication by integrating social science knowledge to design and test messages with intended audiences; and 4) evaluate, test, and improve the NWS hurricane-related product suite in collaboration with social scientists.

The Education Iron Triangle

The Forum ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin R. West ◽  
Michael Henderson ◽  
Paul E. Peterson
Keyword(s):  
Education Reform ◽  
General Public ◽  
Representative Survey ◽  
Education Policies ◽  
The Public ◽  
Reform School ◽  
Iron Triangle ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
Democrats And Republicans

Do teachers and the public disagree on education reform? We use data from a nationally representative survey conducted in 2011 to identify the extent of the differences between the opinion of teachers and the general public on a wide range of education policies. The overall cleavage between teachers and the general public is wider than the cleavages between other relevant groups, including that between Democrats and Republicans. At least with respect to patterns of opinion on education reform, school politics is largely a conflict between producers within the system and consumers outside it – a classic iron triangle theme.

scholarly journals Communicating Probability Information in Hurricane Forecasts: Assessing Statements that Forecasters Use on Social Media and Implications for Public Assessments of Reliability

2021 ◽  
pp. 89-101
Author(s):  
Zoey Rosen ◽  
Makenzie J. Krocak ◽  
Joseph T. Ripberger ◽  
Rachael Cross ◽  
Emily Lenhardt ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Descriptive Analysis ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The Public ◽  
Information Format ◽  
Probability Information ◽  
The Impact ◽  
To Receive ◽  
National Hurricane Center ◽  
Local Weather ◽  
Communicating Risk

Forecasters are responsible for predicting the weather and communicating risk with stakeholders and members of the public. This study investigates the statements that forecasters use to communicate probability information in hurricane forecasts and the impact these statements may have on how members of the public evaluate forecast reliability. We use messages on Twitter to descriptively analyze probability statements in forecasts leading up to Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, Maria, and Florence from forecasters in three different groups: the National Hurricane Center, local Weather Forecast Offices, and in the television broadcast community. We then use data from a representative survey of United States adults to assess how members of the public wish to receive probability information and the impact of information format on assessments of forecast reliability. Results from the descriptive analysis indicate forecasters overwhelmingly use words and phrases in place of numbers to communicate probability information. In addition, the words and phrases forecasters use are generally vague in nature -- they seldom include rank adjectives (e.g., “low” or “high”) to qualify blanket expressions of uncertainty (e.g., “there is a chance of flooding”). Results from the survey show members of the public generally prefer both words/phrases and numbers when receiving forecast information. They also show information format affects public judgments of forecast reliability; on average, people believe forecasts are more reliable when they include numeric probability information.

The United States National Weather Service Real-Time Flood Forecasting

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pedro J. Restrepo
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
The United States ◽  
Flood Forecasting ◽  
Federal State ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Precipitation Temperature ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Weather Service

The U.S. National Weather Service (NWS) is the agency responsible for flood forecasting. Operational flow forecasting at the NWS is carried out at the 13 river forecasting centers for main river flows. Flash floods, which occur in small localized areas, are forecast at the 122 weather forecast offices. Real-time flood forecasting is a complex process that requires the acquisition and quality control of remotely sensed and ground-based observations, weather and climate forecasts, and operation of reservoirs, water diversions, and returns. Currently used remote-sense observations for operational hydrologic forecasts include satellite observations of precipitation, temperature, snow cover, radar observations of precipitation, and airborne observations of snow water equivalent. Ground-based observations include point precipitation, temperature, snow water equivalent, soil moisture and temperature, river stages, and discharge. Observations are collected by a number of federal, state, municipal, tribal and private entities, and transmitted to the NWS on a daily basis. Once the observations have been checked for quality, a hydrologic forecaster uses the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS), which takes care of managing the sequence of models and their corresponding data needs along river reaches. Current operational forecasting requires an interaction between the forecaster and the models, in order to adjust differences between the model predictions and the observations, thus improving the forecasts. The final step in the forecast process is the publication of forecasts.

Assessment of NOAA National Weather Service Methods to Warn for Extreme Heat Events

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michelle D. Hawkins ◽  
Vankita Brown ◽  
Jannie Ferrell
Keyword(s):  
Heat Exposure ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Extreme Heat ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Excessive Heat ◽  
Extreme Heat Events ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Survey Responses ◽  
Heat Events ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Recent climate studies have predicted a future with longer, more intense, and more frequent heat events. Evolving challenges presented by this paradigm necessitate an assessment of current efforts to warn for extreme heat events. NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) issue Excessive Heat Watch, Excessive Heat Warning, and Heat Advisory products as conditions warrant. In the fall of 2013 the NWS conducted an internal assessment with its WFOs to 1) document variations in the usage of heat-based watch, warning, and advisory hazard messages (products) across the country; 2) learn about the degree to which locally developed criteria are applied to forecaster decision-making processes in issuing these products; and 3) gather ideas for enhancing communication of expected excessive heat events in general. Survey responses indicate that WFOs selectively use one or a combination of products, and that various methodologies are used to develop criteria for issuing heat products. Given that forecasters use meteorological and nonmeteorological factors when deciding to issue heat products, forecaster judgment is a crucial element of the warning process. Results also revealed partner confusion due to inconsistent heat product issuance criteria. Suggestions were made for eliminating or revising existing products and policies, or creating new products, policies, or issuance criteria. Results of the survey led the NWS to investigate approaches for achieving higher levels of consistency in heat product issuance criteria, and to engage health partners to examine how heat product issuance criteria could incorporate the known health impacts of heat exposure.

Use of Information by National Weather Service Forecasters and Emergency Managers during CALJET and PACJET-2001

2007 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 539-555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rebecca E. Morss ◽  
F. Martin Ralph
Keyword(s):  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Coastal Region ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Management Decision ◽  
Primary Study ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Meteorological Observations ◽  
Types Of Information ◽  
Weather Service

Abstract Winter storms making landfall in western North America can generate heavy precipitation and other significant weather, leading to floods, landslides, and other hazards that cause significant damage and loss of life. To help alleviate these negative impacts, the California Land-falling Jets (CALJET) and Pacific Land-falling Jets (PACJET) experiments took extra meteorological observations in the coastal region to investigate key research questions and aid operational West Coast 0–48-h weather forecasting. This article presents results from a study of how information provided by CALJET and PACJET was used by National Weather Service (NWS) forecasters and forecast users. The primary study methodology was analysis of qualitative data collected from observations of forecasters and from interviews with NWS personnel, CALJET–PACJET researchers, and forecast users. The article begins by documenting and discussing the many types of information that NWS forecasters combine to generate forecasts. Within this context, the article describes how forecasters used CALJET–PACJET observations to fill in key observational gaps. It then discusses researcher–forecaster interactions and examines how weather forecast information is used in emergency management decision making. The results elucidate the important role that forecasters play in integrating meteorological information and translating forecasts for users. More generally, the article illustrates how CALJET and PACJET benefited forecasts and society in real time, and it can inform future efforts to improve human-generated weather forecasts and future studies of the use and value of meteorological information.

Promoting Collaboration among Trainers in the National Weather Service

2002 ◽  
pp. 106-111
Author(s):  
Victoria C. Johnson ◽  
Sherwood R. Wang
Keyword(s):  
New Technologies ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
Training System ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Science Operations ◽  
Modernization Process ◽  
Year 2000 ◽  
Local Weather ◽  
Weather Service

In the last several years, the National Weather Service (NWS) has undergone a massive modernization and reorganization effort, substantially changing the organization’s structure and the technologies used to produce forecasts. When the reorganization is completed in the year 2000, the NWS will have approximately 120 local weather forecast offices throughout the country (plus Puerto Rico and Guam), with over 1000 forecasters. The new technological systems (such as Doppler radars and upgraded satellites) have produced a flood of data that requires forecasters to have up—to—date scientific knowledge, computer skills, and cognitive tools for synthesizing the vast amount of information available. Early in the modernization process, the NWS recognized the need for a strong training program to help its forecasters effectively use the new technologies and data to better predict deadly weather events. Toward that end, the NWS developed a unique peer training system and created a new position, the Science Operations Officer (SOO), in each forecast office to lead it.

scholarly journals A Hazard Multiple: Overlapping Tornado and Flash Flood Warnings in a National Weather Service Forecast Office in the Southeastern United States

2020 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 1459-1481
Author(s):  
Jen Henderson ◽  
Erik R. Nielsen ◽  
Gregory R. Herman ◽  
Russ S. Schumacher
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Flash Flood ◽  
Southeastern United States ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Weather Forecast ◽  
National Weather Service ◽  
Social Amplification Of Risk ◽  
Life Saving ◽  
Risk Framework ◽  
Weather Service

AbstractThe U.S. weather warning system is designed to help operational forecasters identify hazards and issue alerts to assist people in taking life-saving actions. Assessing risks for separate hazards, such as flash flooding, can be challenging for individuals, depending on their contexts, resources, and abilities. When two or more hazards co-occur in time and space, such as tornadoes and flash floods, which we call TORFFs, risk assessment and available actions people can take to stay safe become increasingly complex and potentially dangerous. TORFF advice can suggest contradictory action—that people get low for a tornado and seek higher ground for a flash flood. The origin of risk information about such threats is the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Forecast Office. This article contributes to an understanding of the warning and forecast system though a naturalistic study of the NWS during a TORFF event in the southeastern United States. Drawing on literature for the Social Amplification of Risk Framework, this article argues that during TORFFs, elements of the NWS warning operations can unintentionally amplify or attenuate one threat over the other. Our results reveal three ways this amplification or attenuation might occur: 1) underlying assumptions that forecasters understandably make about the danger of different threats; 2) threat terminology and coordination with national offices that shape the communication of risks during a multihazard event; and 3) organizational arrangements of space and forecaster expertise during operations. We conclude with suggestions for rethinking sites of amplification and attenuation and additional areas of future study.

Creating the Wind

2020 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 14-31
Author(s):  
Élodie Dupey García
Keyword(s):  
Indigenous Communities ◽  
The Body ◽  
Historical Sources ◽  
Natural Behavior ◽  
Sensory Experiences ◽  
Identity And Agency ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Late Postclassic ◽  
Comparative Examination ◽  
Meteorological Phenomenon

This article explores how the Nahua of late Postclassic Mesoamerica (1200–1521 CE) created living and material embodiments of their wind god constructed on the basis of sensory experiences that shaped their conception of this divinized meteorological phenomenon. In this process, they employed chromatic and design devices, based on a wide range of natural elements, to add several layers of meaning to the human, painted, and sculpted supports dressed in the god’s insignia. Through a comparative examination of pre-Columbian visual production—especially codices and sculptures—historical sources mainly written in Nahuatl during the viceregal period, and ethnographic data on indigenous communities in modern Mexico, my analysis targets the body paint and shell jewelry of the anthropomorphic “images” of the wind god, along with the Feathered Serpent and the monkey-inspired embodiments of the deity. This study identifies the centrality of other human senses beyond sight in the conception of the wind god and the making of its earthly manifestations. Constructing these deity “images” was tantamount to creating the wind because they were intended to be visual replicas of the wind’s natural behavior. At the same time, they referred to the identity and agency of the wind god in myths and rituals.

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