scholarly journals Tornado Damage Ratings Estimated with Cumulative Logistic Regression

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (12) ◽  
pp. 2733-2741
Author(s):  
James B. Elsner ◽  
Zoe Schroder
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Proxy Variable ◽  
Tornado Damage

AbstractEmpirical studies have led to improvements in evaluating and quantifying the tornado threat. However, more work is needed to put the research onto a solid statistical foundation. Here the authors begin to build this foundation by introducing and then demonstrating a statistical model to estimate damage rating (enhanced Fujita scale) probabilities. A goal is to alert researchers to available statistical technology for improving severe weather warnings. The model is cumulative logistic regression and the parameters are determined using Bayesian inference. The model is demonstrated by estimating damage rating probabilities from values of known environmental factors on days with many tornadoes in the United States. Controlling for distance to nearest town/city, which serves as a proxy variable for damage target density, the model quantifies the chance that a particular tornado will be assigned any damage rating given specific environmental conditions. Under otherwise average conditions, the model estimates a 65% chance that a tornado occurring in a city or town will be rated EF0 when bulk shear (1000–500-hPa layer) is weak (10 m s−1). This probability drops to 38% when the bulk shear is strong (40 m s−1). The model quantifies the corresponding increases in the chance of the same tornado receiving higher damage ratings. Quantifying changes to the probability distribution on the ordered damage rating categories is a natural application of cumulative logistic regression.

Mass School Shootings in the United States: A Novel Root Cause Analysis Using Lay Press Reports

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (13) ◽  
pp. 1423-1428 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chris A. Rees ◽  
Lois K. Lee ◽  
Eric W. Fleegler ◽  
Rebekah Mannix
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Root Cause Analysis ◽  
The United States ◽  
School Shootings ◽  
Contributing Factors ◽  
Mass Shootings ◽  
Cause Analysis ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Root Cause

School shootings comprise a small proportion of childhood deaths from firearms; however, these shootings receive a disproportionately large share of media attention. We conducted a root cause analysis of 2 recent school shootings in the United States using lay press reports. We reviewed 1760 and analyzed 282 articles from the 10 most trusted news sources. We identified 356 factors associated with the school shootings. Policy-level factors, including a paucity of adequate legislation controlling firearm purchase and ownership, were the most common contributing factors to school shootings. Mental illness was a commonly cited person-level factor, and access to firearms in the home and availability of large-capacity firearms were commonly cited environmental factors. Novel approaches, including root cause analyses using lay media, can identify factors contributing to mass shootings. The policy, person, and environmental factors associated with these school shootings should be addressed as part of a multipronged effort to prevent future mass shootings.

scholarly journals Altitude and risk of sudden unexpected infant death in the United States

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard Johnston ◽  
Xiaohan Yan ◽  
Tatiana M. Anderson ◽  
Edwin A. Mitchell
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Infant Death ◽  
The United States ◽  
Sudden Infant ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Live Births ◽  
Sudden Unexpected Infant Death ◽  
Increased Risk ◽  
Unexpected Infant Death

AbstractThe effect of altitude on the risk of sudden infant death syndrome (SIDS) has been reported previously, but with conflicting findings. We aimed to examine whether the risk of sudden unexpected infant death (SUID) varies with altitude in the United States. Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)’s Cohort Linked Birth/Infant Death Data Set for births between 2005 and 2010 were examined. County of birth was used to estimate altitude. Logistic regression and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) were used, adjusting for year, mother’s race, Hispanic origin, marital status, age, education and smoking, father’s age and race, number of prenatal visits, plurality, live birth order, and infant’s sex, birthweight and gestation. There were 25,305,778 live births over the 6-year study period. The total number of deaths from SUID in this period were 23,673 (rate = 0.94/1000 live births). In the logistic regression model there was a small, but statistically significant, increased risk of SUID associated with birth at > 8000 feet compared with < 6000 feet (aOR = 1.93; 95% CI 1.00–3.71). The GAM showed a similar increased risk over 8000 feet, but this was not statistically significant. Only 9245 (0.037%) of mothers gave birth at > 8000 feet during the study period and 10 deaths (0.042%) were attributed to SUID. The number of SUID deaths at this altitude in the United States is very small (10 deaths in 6 years).

My Brother’s Reaper: Examining Officially Reported Siblicide Incidents in the United States, 2000–2007

2014 ◽  
Vol 29 (3) ◽  
pp. 523-540 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey A. Walsh ◽  
Jessie L. Krienert
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Theoretical Foundation ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Male And Female ◽  
Sibling Violence ◽  
Extreme Form ◽  
Older Brothers ◽  
Intrafamilial Violence ◽  
Frequent Offenders

With higher rates than any other form of intrafamilial violence, Hoffman and Edwards (2004) note, sibling violence “constitutes a pandemic form of victimization of children, with the symptoms often going unrecognized and the effect ignored” (p. 187). Approximately 80% of children reside with at least one sibling (Kreider, 2008), and in its most extreme form sibling violence manifests as siblicide. Siblicide is poorly understood with fewer than 20 empirical studies identified in the extant literature since 1980 (see Eriksen & Jensen, 2006). The present work employs 8 years of Supplemental Homicide Report (SHR) data, 2000–2007, with siblicide victims and offenders age 21 years and younger, to construct contemporary victim and offender profiles examining incident characteristics. Findings highlight the sex-based nature of the offense with unique victimization patterns across victims and offenders. Older brothers using a firearm are the most frequent offenders against both male and female siblings. Strain as a theoretical foundation of siblicide is offered as an avenue for future inquiry.

Bicycle Helmet Use Patterns Among Children

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1996 ◽  
Vol 97 (2) ◽  
pp. 166-173 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gregory B. Rodgers
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Logistic Regression ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Personal Characteristics ◽  
The United States ◽  
National Sample ◽  
Medical Attention ◽  
Survey Method ◽  
Helmet Use ◽  
Use Patterns

Objective. To describe and evaluate the helmet use patterns of children younger than 15 years of age in the United States. Methods. A national telephone survey of bicycle riders was conducted by means of the Mitofsky-Waksberg method of random-digit dialing, a survey method intended to give all telephone numbers in the continental United States an equal probability of selection. Based on information collected in the survey, a logistic regression model was used to determine and quantify the factors associated with helmet use. Results. Information was collected on the bicycle and helmet use patterns of a national sample of 399 children younger than 15 years of age who rode bicycles during the year preceding the survey. This sample projects to the approximately 26.4 million children who are estimated to have ridden bicycles in 1991. About 26% of all child riders owned or had the use of bicycle helmets, and about 15% were reported to have used their helmets all or more than half of the time when riding. Information is provided on the reasons the children did or did not wear helmets. The logistic regression analysis shows that helmet use by children is systematically related to their personal characteristics (eg, age and whether they had previously had bicycle-related accidents requiring medical attention), riding patterns (eg, riding surface), and household demographic characteristics (eg, geographic location and whether household members had attended college). Conclusions. Helmet use rates among children remain low. Less than one fifth of the children who rode bicycles wore helmets all or more than half of the time in 1991. However, based on comparisons with earlier studies, the results of the analysis suggest that helmet use rates have been rising.

The Physiology of Body Weight Regulation: Relevance to the Etiology of Obesity in Children

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1998 ◽  
Vol 101 (Supplement_2) ◽  
pp. 525-539 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Rosenbaum ◽  
Rudolph L. Leibel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Body Weight ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Regulatory System ◽  
The United States ◽  
Genetic Changes ◽  
Adult Body ◽  
Genes Encoding ◽  
Prevalence Of Obesity ◽  
Obesity In Children

The prevalence of obesity in children and adults in the United States has increased by more than 30% over the past decade. Recent studies of the physiology and molecular genetics of obesity in humans have provided evidence that body weight (fat) is regulated. Some of the genes encoding the molecular components of this regulatory system have been isolated from rodents. The increasing prevalence of obesity in the United States apparently represents the interaction of these genes with an environment that encourages a sedentary lifestyle and consumption of calories. The rapid increase in the prevalence of obesity emphasizes the role of environmental factors, because genetic changes could not occur at this rate. Thus, understanding of the relevant genes and how their effects are mediated by environment and development should lead to more effective prophylaxis and therapy of obesity. Although no clear environmental factors have been identified as causative of obesity, the rapid increases in the prevalence of obesity and the seeming voluntary immutability of adult body fatness can be taken as tacit evidence that the pediatric environment can be altered in a way that affects adult body weight.

Political sophistication

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Παύλος Βασιλόπουλος
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
American Literature ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Political Knowledge ◽  
The United States ◽  
Political Information ◽  
Cognitive Capacity ◽  
Basic Knowledge ◽  
Political Sophistication

This dissertation is concerned with the concept of political sophistication, referring to the extent and organization of a person’s stored political cognition (Luskin 1987).Available empirical evidence on the levels of political sophistication in mass publics comes almost exclusively from the United States and point to two broad conclusions: First, systematic empirical research has demonstrated that political information in the mass public is particularly low (Converse 1964, Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996). Citizens lack basic knowledge over political affairs. Time and again empirical studies have systematically showed that citizens in the United States and elsewhere fall short of passing even the most rudimentary political knowledge tests. This finding that was first illustrated by the Michigan school in the early 1960s (Campbell et al. 1960) resulted in a wide pessimism over the meaning of public opinion and even of representative democracy (Inglehart 1985).The second broad conclusion is that the politically sophisticated and unsophisticated differ: Political sophisticates have the cognitive capacity to translate their deeper held political values and predispositions into consistent political attitudes (Zaller 1992). They are able to use their political knowledge in order to make informed vote choices in the sense that they accurately adjust their political positions to the parties’ platforms (Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996, Lau and Redlawsk 1997, 2006). What is more, they are more likely to participate in elections and other political activities and are less susceptible to political propaganda (Delli Carpini and Keeter 1996).However the idea that political sophistication matters for the quality of the public’s political decision-making has met strong theoretical and methodological criticism by the ‘low information rationality’ perspective (Popkin 1991, Lupia 1994,Graber 2001). This group of theories argues that politically inattentive citizens can form their political judgment on the basis of heuristics that allow them to make reasonable choices reflecting their predispositions and interests even though they lack political knowledge.The principal aims of this thesis are: a)to compare different measurement perspectives on political sophistication and assess their methodological potential especially in regard with comparative research on political knowledgeb)to explore the extent to which the pattern of ignorance that has been repeatedly highlighted in the American literature is an internal characteristic of political behavior stemming from the low expected utility of acquiring political information or it is subject to particular cultural and systemic characteristics. To this direction I use Greece as a case study by undertaking an analytical survey of political sophistication, one of the very few that have been conducted across the Atlantic.c)The third aim is to investigate the determinants of political sophistication and especially the potential of the mass media in political learning and in the context of the Greek political and media system.d)d) Finally this thesis addresses the unresolved question concerning the differences in quality of political decisions between the political sophisticated and unsophisticated layers of the public by evaluating the explanatory potential of two competing theories (political sophistication v. low information rationality) in the multi-party political environment of Greece

scholarly journals On the probability distribution of daily streamflow in the United States

2017 ◽  
Vol 21 (6) ◽  
pp. 3093-3103 ◽  
Author(s):  
Annalise G. Blum ◽  
Stacey A. Archfield ◽  
Richard M. Vogel
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Probability Distribution ◽  
The United States ◽  
Good Representation ◽  
Lognormal Distributions ◽  
Daily Streamflow ◽  
The Us ◽  
Flow Duration Curves ◽  
A Site ◽  
Physiographic Regions

Abstract. Daily streamflows are often represented by flow duration curves (FDCs), which illustrate the frequency with which flows are equaled or exceeded. FDCs have had broad applications across both operational and research hydrology for decades; however, modeling FDCs has proven elusive. Daily streamflow is a complex time series with flow values ranging over many orders of magnitude. The identification of a probability distribution that can approximate daily streamflow would improve understanding of the behavior of daily flows and the ability to estimate FDCs at ungaged river locations. Comparisons of modeled and empirical FDCs at nearly 400 unregulated, perennial streams illustrate that the four-parameter kappa distribution provides a very good representation of daily streamflow across the majority of physiographic regions in the conterminous United States (US). Further, for some regions of the US, the three-parameter generalized Pareto and lognormal distributions also provide a good approximation to FDCs. Similar results are found for the period of record FDCs, representing the long-term hydrologic regime at a site, and median annual FDCs, representing the behavior of flows in a typical year.

Approaches for Addressing Student Barriers to Collaborative Learning Success

2018 ◽  
pp. 23-43
Author(s):  
Robert F. Houghton ◽  
Kevin R. Parker ◽  
Bill Davey ◽  
Karoly Bozan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Learning Experience ◽  
Collaborative Work ◽  
Effective Means ◽  
The United States ◽  
Collaborative Group ◽  
Collaborative Tools ◽  
Learning Success ◽  
Student Profiles

Collaborative work can provide a valuable learning experience, especially for those preparing to enter the information systems workforce. There have been numerous papers that discuss various effective means of realizing the benefits of collaborative group learning, but the approach still experiences issues stemming from pragmatic environmental factors such as the non-traditional nature of many students. This chapter has identified a range of problems and reports on a longitudinal Action Research study in two universities in Australia and the United States. Over three semesters problems were identified and methods tested using various approaches. Several promising remedies to the identified problems are suggested, including the use of student profiles, ePortfolios, project milestones, and freely available online collaborative tools.

Public policy education in the United States

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael O’Hare
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Public Policy ◽  
Bayesian Inference ◽  
Nonprofit Organizations ◽  
Public Management ◽  
The United States ◽  
Original Model ◽  
Professional Schools ◽  
Future Evolution ◽  
Selection Of

Training for policy analysis practice has evolved over forty years to a standardized core, including economics, statistics, management, politics/political science, and a practicum. The original model applied disciplinary methodology to the selection of better alternatives among possible policies for governments and nonprofit organizations. The most important mid-course correction in MPP history was the introduction of public management requirements in recognition that MPP alumni would (i) manage ‘policy shops’ and operating agencies as their careers advanced, and (ii) should advise on policy with awareness of implementability and manageability issues. Variations on this model include courses in law and public administration, concentrations in issue areas like health or environmental policy, and joint degrees with other professional schools. Current issues from which future evolution of the MPP enterprise is likely to flow include tensions between methodologies used by MPP faculty in research and inclusion of models like Bayesian inference and behavioral economics that may be more applicable in professional practice. Another source of variation is pedagogical: some courses offer the familiar ‘Theory T [for telling]’ model whereby content is presented didactically in lectures with discussion assigned to sections, while others move to ‘Theory C [for coaching]’ convention where content presentation is left to readings, and meetings are devoted to using the content to analyze policy questions.

scholarly journals The Relationship Between Corporate Social Responsibility And Corporate Financial Performance – Evidence From Empirical Studies

2016 ◽  
Vol 19 (4) ◽  
pp. 67-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magdalena Mikołajek-Gocejna
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Responsibility ◽  
Corporate Performance ◽  
Social Performance ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
The United States ◽  
Responsible Investment ◽  
Relative Contribution ◽  
Professional Management ◽  
Sustainable Investment

Socially responsible investment (SRI) has experienced strong growth in recent years. In 2012, $1 out of every $9 US assets under professional management was invested in some form of sustainable investment. Global sustainable investment assets have expanded dramatically, rising from $13.3 trillion at the outset of 2012 to reach a total of $21.4 trillion at the start of 2014. Most of the SRI assets are in Europe (63.7 percent), but the relative contribution of the United States has increased from 28.2 percent in 2012 to 30.8 percent in 2014, and over this two-year period, the fastest growing region has been the United States, followed by Canada and Europe. These three regions are also the largest regions in terms of assets, accounting for 99 percent of global SRI.With this growth one most important issues is whether it pays for organizations to concern themselves with social responsibility, and whether there are any tradeoffs to sustainable investing. Much of the present research on this question is based on the views of Friedman and Freeman. But changes in economic development, national and local security, and the growing expectations of stakeholders influence how social performance is defined, and thus corporate performance as well.The aim of this article is to examine correlations between CSR and financial corporate performance, based on empirical studies conducted by other authors in different countries. In total, the analysis comprises 53 studies and the results obtained for 16,119 companies.

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