scholarly journals Response of the HadGEM2 Earth System Model to Future Greenhouse Gas Emissions Pathways to the Year 2300*

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (10) ◽  
pp. 3275-3284 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Caesar ◽  
Erika Palin ◽  
Spencer Liddicoat ◽  
Jason Lowe ◽  
Eleanor Burke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
First Century ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Northern High Latitude ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Hadley Centre ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations

Abstract A new ensemble of simulations from the Earth System configuration of the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (HadGEM2-ES), is used to evaluate the response to historical and projected future greenhouse gas forcings that follow Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). In addition to the projected changes during the twenty-first century, extended simulations to the year 2300 allow an investigation into inertia in the climate system post-2100 that may occur even if atmospheric CO2 concentrations have stabilized. Projections of temperature, precipitation, sea level, permafrost, heat waves, and compatible carbon emissions are analyzed. The low emissions scenario RCP2.6 is the only scenario considered here that is approximately consistent with a 2°C global warming limit, though there are regions where local changes in temperature are projected to considerably exceed 2°C, particularly over northern high-latitude areas. An aggressive mitigation approach, represented here by RCP2.6, could contribute to avoiding the larger-magnitude future climate changes projected under higher emissions scenarios. Despite these benefits, changes should still be expected under an aggressive mitigation pathway and may require adaptation.

scholarly journals Analysis of projected changes in the occurrence of heat waves in Hungary

2013 ◽  
Vol 35 ◽  
pp. 115-122 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Pongrácz ◽  
J. Bartholy ◽  
E. B. Bartha
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Heat Wave ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Meteorological Data ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Warning System ◽  
Emissions Scenarios ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
Regional Climates

Abstract. Heat wave events are important temperature-related hazards due to their impacts on human health. In 2004, a Heat Health Warning System including three levels of heat wave warning was developed on the basis of a retrospective analysis of mortality and meteorological data in Hungary to anticipate heat waves that may result in a large excess of mortality. Projected changes in the frequency of different heat wave warning levels are analysed for the 21st century. For this purpose, outputs of regional climate model PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) are used taking into account three different global emissions scenarios (A2, A1B, B2). The results clearly show an increase in occurrence and length of heat waves with respect to the underlying emissions scenarios and regional climate model used. Moreover, the potential season of heat wave occurrences is projected to be lengthened by two months in 2071–2100 compared to 1961–1990.

scholarly journals CO2 Emissions Determined by HadGEM2-ES to be Compatible with the Representative Concentration Pathway Scenarios and Their Extensions

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4381-4397 ◽  
Author(s):  
Spencer Liddicoat ◽  
Chris Jones ◽  
Eddy Robertson
Keyword(s):  
Land Use ◽  
Co2 Emissions ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Co2 Exchange ◽  
Carbon Uptake ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Uncertainty Range ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Ocean Carbon ◽  
Hadley Centre

Abstract This paper presents the fossil fuel–derived CO2 emissions simulated by the Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2, Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) to be compatible with four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) from 2006 to 2100. For three of the four RCPs, the analysis is extended to 2300. The compatible emissions compare well with those generated by integrated assessment models from which the RCPs were constructed. Historical compatible emissions are also presented, which closely match observation-based estimates from 1860 to 2005 (cumulatively 330 and 319 GtC, respectively). Simulated land and ocean carbon uptake, which determines the compatible emissions, is examined, with an emphasis on changes in vegetation carbon. In addition, historical land and ocean carbon uptake is compared with observations. The influences of climate change and the carbon cycle on compatible emissions are investigated individually through two additional experiments in which either aspect is decoupled from the CO2 pathway. Exposure of the biogeochemical components of the Earth system to increasing CO2 is found to be responsible for 68% of the compatible emissions of the fully coupled simulation, while increased radiative forcing from the CO2 pathway reduces its compatible emissions by 11%. The importance of dynamic vegetation to compatible emissions is investigated and discussed. Two different methods of determining emissions from land use and land-use change are compared; differencing the land–atmosphere CO2 exchange of two experiments, one with fixed land use and the other variable, results in historical land-use emissions within the uncertainty range of observed estimates, while those simulated directly by the model are well below the lower limit of the observations.

scholarly journals Caracterização dos Diferentes Tipos de El Niño e seus Impactos na América do Sul a Partir de Dados Observados e Modelados

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (1) ◽  
pp. 43-67
Author(s):  
Juarez Viegas ◽  
Rita Valéria Andreoli ◽  
Mary Toshie Kayano ◽  
Luiz Antonio Candido ◽  
Rodrigo Augusto Ferreira de Souza ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
System Model ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Model Intercomparison ◽  
Environmental Model ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Hadley Centre

Resumo Estudos recentes têm apontado para a existência de dois tipos de eventos de El Niño (EN): EN do Pacífico oriental ou Canônico (EP, sigla em inglês) e EN do Pacífico Central ou Modoki (CP, sigla em inglês). Neste estudo, foram utilizados dados observados e de três modelos do Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) para avaliar o impacto dos dois tipos de EN na precipitação da América do Sul desde o trimestre de Junho-Agosto do ano inicial do evento até Março-Maio do ano seguinte. O modelo do Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques (CNRM-CM5) apresentou o melhor desempenho para reproduzir os padrões anômalos observados de TSM para os tipos de EN CP e EP. O padrão anômalo da precipitação observada associado a eventos EN foi mais marcante durante o verão austral. No caso do EN EP, tal padrão caracterizou-se por precipitação acima (abaixo) da normal no sudeste (norte/noroeste) da América do Sul. Este padrão foi reproduzido pelos modelos CNRM-CM5 e Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model (HadGEM2-ES). O Max Plank Institute Earth System model (MPI-ESM-LR) reproduziu a redução de chuva no norte, porém não reproduziu o aumento anômalo no sudeste e redução no noroeste do continente. No caso do EN CP, o impacto observado nas chuvas da América do Sul durante o verão caracterizou-se por escassez (excesso) no norte/noroeste (sudeste). Este padrão foi reproduzido pelos modelos, entretanto, os modelos HadGEM2-ES e MPI-ESM-LR mostraram índices pluviométricos no nordeste do Brasil menores do que os observados. As diferenças na representação dos padrões de teleconexões em resposta ao EN explicam as diferenças entre os padrões simulados.

scholarly journals Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

2021 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 481-497
Author(s):  
Mansour Almazroui ◽  
Fahad Saeed ◽  
Sajjad Saeed ◽  
Muhammad Ismail ◽  
Muhammad Azhar Ehsan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Variability ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
First Century ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Annual Maximum ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Projected Change ◽  
Twenty First Century ◽  
Projected Changes ◽  
The Tropics

AbstractThis paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) and end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of maximum temperature (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), Annual maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day), and Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over the entire globe and its 26 Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase in intensity and frequency of hot temperature and precipitation extremes over land. The intensity of the hottest days (as measured by TXx) is projected to increase more in extratropical regions than in the tropics, while the frequency of extremely hot days (as measured by HWFI) is projected to increase more in the tropics. Drought frequency (as measured by CDD) is projected to increase more over Brazil, the Mediterranean, South Africa, and Australia. Meanwhile, the Asian monsoon regions (i.e., South Asia, East Asia, and Southeast Asia) become more prone to extreme flash flooding events later in the twenty-first century as shown by the higher RX5day index projections. The projected changes in extremes reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. The spatial variability of the studied extreme events increases with increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) and is higher at the end of the twenty-first century. The projected change in the extremes and the pattern of their spatial variability is minimum under the low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that an increased concentration of GHG leads to substantial increases in the extremes and their intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit the risks associated with increases in extreme events in the twenty-first century.

scholarly journals Climate Change Projection in the Twenty-First Century Simulated by NIMS-KMA CMIP6 Model Based on New GHGs Concentration Pathways

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyun Min Sung ◽  
Jisun Kim ◽  
Sungbo Shim ◽  
Jeong-byn Seo ◽  
Sang-Hoon Kwon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Scientific Information ◽  
Earth System Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
System Model ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Future Projections ◽  
Twenty First Century

AbstractThe National Institute of Meteorological Sciences-Korea Meteorological Administration (NIMS-KMA) has participated in the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP) and provided long-term simulations using the coupled climate model. The NIMS-KMA produces new future projections using the ensemble mean of KMA Advanced Community Earth system model (K-ACE) and UK Earth System Model version1 (UKESM1) simulations to provide scientific information of future climate changes. In this study, we analyze four experiments those conducted following the new shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) based scenarios to examine projected climate change in the twenty-first century. Present day (PD) simulations show high performance skill in both climate mean and variability, which provide a reliability of the climate models and reduces the uncertainty in response to future forcing. In future projections, global temperature increases from 1.92 °C to 5.20 °C relative to the PD level (1995–2014). Global mean precipitation increases from 5.1% to 10.1% and sea ice extent decreases from 19% to 62% in the Arctic and from 18% to 54% in the Antarctic. In addition, climate changes are accelerating toward the late twenty-first century. Our CMIP6 simulations are released to the public through the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) international data sharing portal and are used to support the establishment of the national adaptation plan for climate change in South Korea.

scholarly journals Ecological resource availability: a method to estimate resource budgets for a sustainable economy

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harald Desing ◽  
Gregor Braun ◽  
Roland Hischier
Keyword(s):  
Resource Availability ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Annual Production ◽  
Earth System ◽  
Global Environmental ◽  
Sustainable Economy ◽  
Safe Limits ◽  
One Step ◽  
Environmental Limits ◽  
Environmental Burdens

Non-technical summary Resources are the basis of our economy and their provision causes major shares of the global environmental burdens, many of which are beyond safe limits today. In order to be sustainable, our economy needs to be able to operate within those boundaries. As resources are the physical ‘currency’ of our economy, we present a method that allows translating Earth system boundaries into resource budgets. This ecological resource availability determines the global annual production of a resource that can be considered absolutely sustainable. The budgets can be managed like financial budgets, bringing absolute environmental limits one step closer to decision-makers.

scholarly journals Modeling Northern Hemisphere Summer Heat Extreme Changes and Their Uncertainties Using a Physics Ensemble of Climate Sensitivity Experiments

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (17) ◽  
pp. 4418-4435 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin T. Clark ◽  
Simon J. Brown ◽  
James M. Murphy
Keyword(s):  
Structural Changes ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Full Range ◽  
Daily Maximum ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Summer Heat ◽  
Modeling Uncertainties ◽  
Physics Ensemble ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract Changes in extreme daily temperature events are examined using a perturbed physics ensemble of global model simulations under present-day and doubled CO2 climates where ensemble members differ in their representation of various physical processes. Modeling uncertainties are quantified by varying poorly constrained model parameters that control atmospheric processes and feedbacks and analyzing the ensemble spread of simulated changes. In general, uncertainty is up to 50% of projected changes in extreme heat events of the type that occur only once per year. Large changes are seen in distributions of daily maximum temperatures for June, July, and August with significant shifts to warmer conditions. Changes in extremely hot days are shown to be significantly larger than changes in mean values in some regions. The intensity, duration, and frequency of summer heat waves are expected to be substantially greater over all continents. The largest changes are found over Europe, North and South America, and East Asia. Reductions in soil moisture, number of wet days, and nocturnal cooling are identified as significant factors responsible for the changes. Although uncertainty associated with the magnitude of expected changes is large in places, it does not bring into question the sign or nature of the projected changes. Even with the most conservative simulations, hot extreme events are still expected to substantially increase in intensity, duration, and frequency. This ensemble, however, does not represent the full range of uncertainty associated with future projections; for example, the effects of multiple parameter perturbations are neglected, as are the effects of structural changes to the basic nature of the parameterization schemes in the model.

scholarly journals Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21<sup>st</sup> century

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Antara Banerjee ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
John A. Pyle
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Tropospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Climatic Drivers ◽  
Ozone Precursor ◽  
Ozone Depleting Substances ◽  
Projected Changes

Abstract. The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry-climate model. Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 Wm−2. This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.07 Wm−2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is mainly driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere exchange. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of two (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.19 Wm−2, which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of tropospheric non-methane ozone precursor reductions. A third of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gas concentrations, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.06 Wm−2) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 Wm−2) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes.

scholarly journals Heterogeneous CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> content of glacial meltwater from the Greenland Ice Sheet and implications for subglacial carbon processes

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 1627-1644
Author(s):  
Andrea J. Pain ◽  
Jonathan B. Martin ◽  
Ellen E. Martin ◽  
Åsa K. Rennermalm ◽  
Shaily Rahman
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Mineral Weathering ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Co2 Concentrations ◽  
Geochemical Models ◽  
Atmospheric Co2 Concentrations ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Accelerated melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet has increased freshwater delivery to the Arctic Ocean and amplified the need to understand the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet meltwater on Arctic greenhouse gas budgets. We evaluate subglacial discharge from the Greenland Ice Sheet for carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) concentrations and δ13C values and use geochemical models to evaluate subglacial CH4 and CO2 sources and sinks. We compare discharge from southwest (a sub-catchment of the Isunnguata Glacier, sub-Isunnguata, and the Russell Glacier) and southern Greenland (Kiattut Sermiat). Meltwater CH4 concentrations vary by orders of magnitude between sites and are saturated with respect to atmospheric concentrations at Kiattut Sermiat. In contrast, meltwaters from southwest sites are supersaturated, even though oxidation reduces CH4 concentrations by up to 50 % during periods of low discharge. CO2 concentrations range from supersaturated at sub-Isunnguata to undersaturated at Kiattut Sermiat. CO2 is consumed by mineral weathering throughout the melt season at all sites; however, differences in the magnitude of subglacial CO2 sources result in meltwaters that are either sources or sinks of atmospheric CO2. At the sub-Isunnguata site, the predominant source of CO2 is organic matter (OM) remineralization. However, multiple or heterogeneous subglacial CO2 sources maintain atmospheric CO2 concentrations at Russell but not at Kiattut Sermiat, where CO2 is undersaturated. These results highlight a previously unrecognized degree of heterogeneity in greenhouse gas dynamics under the Greenland Ice Sheet. Future work should constrain the extent and controls of heterogeneity to improve our understanding of the impact of Greenland Ice Sheet melt on Arctic greenhouse gas budgets, as well as the role of continental ice sheets in greenhouse gas variations over glacial–interglacial timescales.

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