scholarly journals The Character and Causes of Elevation-Dependent Warming in High-Resolution Simulations of Rocky Mountain Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (6) ◽  
pp. 2093-2113 ◽  
Author(s):  
Justin R. Minder ◽  
Theodore W. Letcher ◽  
Changhai Liu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Snow Cover ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Sensitivity Experiments ◽  
Mountain Climate ◽  
Fractional Snow Cover

The character and causes of elevation-dependent warming (EDW) of surface temperatures are examined in a suite of high-resolution ([Formula: see text] km) regional climate model (RCM) simulations of climate change over the Rocky Mountains using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. A clear EDW signal is found over the region, with warming enhanced in certain elevation bands by as much as 2°C. During some months warming maximizes at middle elevations, whereas during others it increases monotonically with elevation or is nearly independent of elevation. Simulated EDW is primarily caused by the snow albedo feedback (SAF). Warming maximizes in regions of maximum snow loss and albedo reduction. The role of the SAF is confirmed by sensitivity experiments wherein the SAF is artificially suppressed. The elevation dependence of free-tropospheric warming appears to play a secondary role in shaping EDW. No evidence is found for a contribution from elevation-dependent water vapor feedbacks. Sensitivity experiments show that EDW depends strongly on certain aspects of RCM configuration. Simulations using 4- and 12-km horizontal grid spacings show similar EDW signals, but substantial differences are found when using a grid spacing of 36 km due to the influence of terrain resolution on snow cover and the SAF. Simulations using the Noah and Noah-MP land surface models (LSMs) exhibit large differences in EDW. These are caused by differences between LSMs in their representations of midelevation snow extent and in their parameterization of subpixel fractional snow cover. These lead to albedo differences that act to modulate the simulated SAF and its effect on EDW.

scholarly journals Evaluation of CLASS Snow Simulation over Eastern Canada

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (5) ◽  
pp. 1205-1225 ◽  
Author(s):  
Diana Verseghy ◽  
Ross Brown ◽  
Libo Wang
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Eastern Canada ◽  
Fractional Snow Cover ◽  
Forest Regions ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Snow Model

Abstract The Canadian Land Surface Scheme (CLASS), version 3.6.1, was run offline for the period 1990–2011 over a domain centered on eastern Canada, driven by atmospheric forcing data dynamically downscaled from ERA-Interim using the Canadian Regional Climate Model. The precipitation inputs were adjusted to replicate the monthly average precipitation reported in the CRU observational database. The simulated fractional snow cover and the surface albedo were evaluated using NOAA Interactive Multisensor Snow and Ice Mapping System and MODIS data, and the snow water equivalent was evaluated using CMC, Global Snow Monitoring for Climate Research (GlobSnow), and Hydro-Québec products. The modeled fractional snow cover agreed well with the observational estimates. The albedo of snow-covered areas showed a bias of up to −0.15 in boreal forest regions, owing to neglect of subgrid-scale lakes in the simulation. In June, conversely, there was a positive albedo bias in the remaining snow-covered areas, likely caused by neglect of impurities in the snow. The validation of the snow water equivalent was complicated by the fact that the three observation-based datasets differed widely. Also, the downward adjustment of the forcing precipitation clearly resulted in a low snow bias in some regions. However, where the density of the observations was high, the CLASS snow model was deemed to have performed well. Sensitivity tests confirmed the satisfactory behavior of the current parameterizations of snow thermal conductivity, snow albedo refreshment threshold, and limiting snow depth and underlined the importance of snow interception by vegetation. Overall, the study demonstrated the necessity of using a wide variety of observation-based datasets for model validation.

Projected climate change over Kuwait simulated using a WRF high resolution regional climate model

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hussain Alsarraf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Arabian Peninsula ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Dynamic Downscaling ◽  
Model Simulations ◽  
Average Maximum ◽  
The Impact

<p>The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of climate change on the changes on summer surface temperatures between present (2000-2010) and future (2050-2060) over the Arabian Peninsula and Kuwait. In this study, the influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula and especially in Kuwait was investigated by high resolution (36, 12, and 4 km grid spacing) dynamic downscaling from the Community Climate System Model CCSM4 using the WRF Weather Research and Forecasting model. The downscaling results were first validated by comparing National Centers for Environmental Prediction NCEP model outputs with the observational data. The global climate change dynamic downscaling model was run using WRF regional climate model simulations (2000-2010) and future projections (2050-2060). The influence of climate change in the Arabian Peninsula can be projected from the differences between the two period’s model simulations. The regional model simulations of the average maximum surface temperature in summertime predicted an increase from 1◦C to 3 ◦C over the summertime in Kuwait by midcentury.</p><p><strong> </strong></p>

scholarly journals Climate change in China in the 21st century as simulated by a high resolution regional climate model

2012 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 1188-1195 ◽  
Author(s):  
XueJie Gao ◽  
Ying Shi ◽  
DongFeng Zhang ◽  
Filippo Giorgi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate

scholarly journals High-resolution Med-CORDEX regional climate model simulations for hydrological impact studies: a first evaluation in Morocco

2013 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 5687-5737 ◽  
Author(s):  
Y. Tramblay ◽  
D. Ruelland ◽  
S. Somot ◽  
R. Bouaicha ◽  
E. Servat
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Bias Correction ◽  
Hydrological Model ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Hydrological Impact ◽  
Split Sample

Abstract. In the framework of the international CORDEX program, new regional climate model (RCM) simulations at high spatial resolutions are becoming available for the Mediterranean region (Med-CORDEX initiative). This study provides the first evaluation for hydrological impact studies of these high-resolution simulations. Different approaches are compared to analyze the climate change impacts on the hydrology of a catchment located in North Morocco, using a high-resolution RCM (ALADIN-Climate) from the Med-CORDEX initiative at two different spatial resolutions (50 km and 12 km) and for two different Radiative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The main issues addressed in the present study are: (i) what is the impact of increased RCM resolution on present-climate hydrological simulations and on future projections? (ii) Are the bias-correction of the RCM model and the parameters of the hydrological model stationary and transferable to different climatic conditions? (iii) What is the climate and hydrological change signal based on the new Radiative Concentration Pathways scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5)? Results indicate that high resolution simulations at 12 km better reproduce the seasonal patterns, the seasonal distributions and the extreme events of precipitation. The parameters of the hydrological model, calibrated to reproduce runoff at the monthly time step over the 1984–2010 period, do not show a strong variability between dry and wet calibration periods in a differential split-sample test. However the bias correction of precipitation by quantile-matching does not give satisfactory results in validation using the same differential split-sample testing method. Therefore a quantile-perturbation method that does not rely on any stationarity assumption and produces ensembles of perturbed series of precipitation was introduced. The climate change signal under scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 indicates a decrease of respectively −30% to −57% in surface runoff for the mid-term (2041–2062), when for the same period the projections for precipitation are ranging between −15% and −19% and for temperature between +1.28°C and +1.87°C.

scholarly journals RCP 8.5 Ghana. High-end climate change impacts on crop production

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylvia Tramberend ◽  
Günther Fischer ◽  
Harrij van Velthuizen
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Crop Production ◽  
Agricultural Sector ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Development Planning ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Sub Saharan

<p>Climate change threatens vulnerable communities in sub-Saharan Africa who face significant challenges for adaptation. Agriculture provides the livelihood for the majority of population. High-resolution assessments of the effects of climate change on crop production are urgently needed for targeted adaptation planning. In Ghana, next to food needs, agriculture plays an important role on international cocoa markets. To this end, we develop and apply a National Agro-Ecological Zoning system (NAEZ Ghana) to analyze the impacts of high-end (RCP8.5) global warming on agricultural production potentials until the end of this century. NAEZ Ghana uses an ensemble of the CORDEX Africa Regional Climate Model, a regional soil map, to assess development trends of crop production potentials for 19 main crops. Results highlight differential impacts across the country. Especially due to the significant increase in the number of days exceeding high-temperature thresholds, rain-fed production of several food and export crops could be reduced significantly compared to the historical 30-year average (1981-2010). Plantain production, an important food crop, could achieve under climate change less than half of its current potential already in the 2050s and less than 10% by the 2080s. Suitable areas for cocoa production decrease strongly resulting in only one third of production potential compared to today. Other crops with detrimental effects of climate change include oil palm, sugarcane, coffee, and rubber. Production of maize, sorghum, and millet cope well with a future warmer climate. The NAEZ Ghana database provides valuable high-resolution information to support agricultural sector development planning and climate change adaptation strategies. The expansion of irrigation development will play a central role in some areas. This requires further research on Ghana’s linkages between food, water, and energy, taking into account climate and socio-economic changes.</p>

scholarly journals Bridging the scale gap: Obtaining high-resolution stochastic simulations of gridded daily precipitation in a future climate

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qifen Yuan ◽  
Thordis L. Thorarinsdottir ◽  
Stein Beldring ◽  
Wai Kwok Wong ◽  
Chong-Yu Xu
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Daily Precipitation ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Weather Generator ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Stochastic Simulations ◽  
Climate Change Information ◽  
Historical Observation

Abstract. Climate change impact assessment related to floods, infrastructure networks and water resources management applications requires realistic simulations of high-resolution gridded precipitation series under a future climate. This paper proposes to produce such simulations by combining a weather generator for high-resolution gridded daily precipitation, trained on historical observation-based gridded data product, with coarser scale climate change information obtained using a regional climate model. The climate change information can be added to various components of the weather generator, related to both the probability of precipitation as well as the amount of precipitation on wet days. The information is added in a transparent manner, allowing for an assessment of the plausibility of the added information. In a case study of nine hydrological catchments in central Norway with the study areas covering 1000–5500 km2, daily simulations are obtained on a 1 km grid for a period of 19 years. The method yields simulations with realistic temporal and spatial structures and outperforms empirical quantile delta mapping in terms of marginal performance.

scholarly journals Soil Control on Runoff Response to Climate Change in Regional Climate Model Simulations

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3536-3551 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bart van den Hurk ◽  
Martin Hirschi ◽  
Christoph Schär ◽  
Geert Lenderink ◽  
Erik van Meijgaard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Climate Simulation ◽  
Discharge Data ◽  
And Storage

Abstract Simulations with seven regional climate models driven by a common control climate simulation of a GCM carried out for Europe in the context of the (European Union) EU-funded Prediction of Regional scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate change risks and Effects (PRUDENCE) project were analyzed with respect to land surface hydrology in the Rhine basin. In particular, the annual cycle of the terrestrial water storage was compared to analyses based on the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) atmospheric convergence and observed Rhine discharge data. In addition, an analysis was made of the partitioning of convergence anomalies over anomalies in runoff and storage. This analysis revealed that most models underestimate the size of the water storage and consequently overestimated the response of runoff to anomalies in net convergence. The partitioning of these anomalies over runoff and storage was indicative for the response of the simulated runoff to a projected climate change consistent with the greenhouse gas A2 Synthesis Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). In particular, the annual cycle of runoff is affected largely by the terrestrial storage reservoir. Larger storage capacity leads to smaller changes in both wintertime and summertime monthly mean runoff. The sustained summertime evaporation resulting from larger storage reservoirs may have a noticeable impact on the summertime surface temperature projections.

The Sensitivity of Regional Climate Projections to SSP-Based Land Use Changes in the North American CORDEX Domain

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Melissa Bukovsky ◽  
Linda Mearns ◽  
Jing Gao ◽  
Brian O'Neill
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
North American ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Agricultural Land ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Rcp Scenarios ◽  
The North

<p>In order to assess the combined effects of green-house-gas-induced climate change and land-use land-cover change (LULCC), we have produced regional climate model (RCM) simulations that are complementary to the North-American Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) simulations, but with future LULCCs that are consistent with particular Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs).  In standard, existing NA-CORDEX simulations, land surface characteristics are held constant at present day conditions.  These new simulations, in conjunction with the NA-CORDEX simulations, will help us assess the magnitude of the changes in regional climate forced by LULCC relative to those produced by increasing greenhouse gas concentrations.     </p><p>Understanding the magnitude of the regional climate effects of LULCC is important to the SSP-RCP scenarios framework.  Whether or not the pattern of climate change resulting from a given SSP-RCP pairing is sensitive to the pattern of LULCC is an understudied problem.  This work helps address this question, and will inform thinking about possible needed modifications to the scenarios framework to better account for climate-land use interactions.</p><p>Accordingly, in this presentation, we will examine the state of the climate at the end of the 21<sup>st</sup> century with and without SSP-driven LULCCs in RCM simulations produced using WRF under the RCP8.5 concentration scenario.  The included LULCC change effects have been created following the SSP3 and SSP5 narratives using an existing agricultural land model linked with a new long-term spatial urban land model. </p>

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