scholarly journals Projection of Landfalling–Tropical Cyclone Rainfall in the Eastern United States under Anthropogenic Warming

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (18) ◽  
pp. 7269-7286 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maofeng Liu ◽  
Gabriel A. Vecchi ◽  
James A. Smith ◽  
Hiroyuki Murakami
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
First Century ◽  
Flood Hazards ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Storm Frequency ◽  
Rainfall Projection ◽  
Future Work ◽  
Left Quadrant

Abstract Landfalling–tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall is an important element of inland flood hazards in the eastern United States. The projection of landfalling-TC rainfall under anthropogenic warming provides insight into future flood risks. This study examines the frequency of landfalling TCs and associated rainfall using the GFDL Forecast-Oriented Low Ocean Resolution (FLOR) climate model through comparisons with observed TC track and rainfall over the July–November 1979–2005 seasons. The projection of landfalling-TC frequency and rainfall under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 scenario for the late twenty-first century is explored, including an assessment of the impacts of extratropical transition (ET). In most regions of the southeastern United States, competition between increased storm rain rate and decreased storm frequency dominates the change of annual TC rainfall, and rainfall from ET and non-ET storms. In the northeastern United States, a prominent feature is the striking increase of ET-storm frequency but with tropical characteristics (i.e., prior to the ET phase), a key element of increased rainfall. The storm-centered rainfall composite analyses show the greatest increase at a radius of a few hundred kilometers from the storm centers. Over both ocean and land, the increase of rainfall within 500 km from the storm center exceeds the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling for TC-phase storms. Similar results are found in the front-left quadrant of ET-phase storms. Future work involving explorations of multiple models (e.g., higher atmospheric resolution version of the FLOR model) for TC-rainfall projection is expected to add more robustness to projection results.

scholarly journals On the Potential Change in Surface Water Vapor Deposition over the Continental United States due to Increases in Atmospheric Greenhouse Gases

2006 ◽  
Vol 19 (8) ◽  
pp. 1576-1585
Author(s):  
Zaitao Pan ◽  
Moti Segal ◽  
Charles Graves
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Water Vapor ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Vapor Deposition ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Climate Scenario ◽  
The United States ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Present Climate

Abstract Characteristics of surface water vapor deposition (WVD) over the continental United States under the present climate and a future climate scenario reflecting the mid-twenty-first-century increased greenhouse gas concentrations were evaluated by using a regional climate model forced by initial and lateral boundary conditions generated by a GCM. Simulated seasonal WVD frequency and daily amounts are presented and elaboration on their relation to potential surface dew/frost is also provided. The climate scenario showed in winter a noticeable decline in WVD frequency over snow-covered areas in the Midwest and over most of the elevated terrain in the western United States, contrasted by an overall increase in the eastern United States. In summer, a decline in frequency was simulated for most of the United States, particularly over the mountains in the west. A spatially mixed trend of change in the frequency was indicated in spring and fall. The trend of change in WVD amount resembled that of the frequency in summer, whereas a largely reversed relation was shown in winter. Quantitatively, changes in frequency and amount of WVD in the range of −30% to +30% generally were indicated for all locations and seasons, except for the western half of the United States, where the change was larger in summer. While areas passing a local statistical test on WVD changes ranged from 11% to 36% of land domain, the WVD differences as a whole field between present climate and future scenarios are significant.

scholarly journals Spatiotemporal Variability of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Using a High-Resolution, Gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) Dataset for the Eastern United States, 1948–2015

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 1803-1819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua C. Bregy ◽  
Justin T. Maxwell ◽  
Scott M. Robeson ◽  
Jason T. Ortegren ◽  
Peter T. Soulé ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Spatiotemporal Variability ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Percentage Contribution ◽  
Rain Gauges ◽  
The North ◽  
Climate Interactions

AbstractTropical cyclones (TCs) are an important source of precipitation for much of the eastern United States. However, our understanding of the spatiotemporal variability of tropical cyclone precipitation (TCP) and the connections to large-scale atmospheric circulation is limited by irregularly distributed rain gauges and short records of satellite measurements. To address this, we developed a new gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) publicly available dataset of TCP (1948–2015; Tropical Cyclone Precipitation Dataset, or TCPDat) using TC tracks to identify TCP within an existing gridded precipitation dataset. TCPDat was used to characterize total June–November TCP and percentage contribution to total June–November precipitation. TCP totals and contributions had maxima on the Louisiana, North Carolina, and Texas coasts, substantially decreasing farther inland at rates of approximately 6.2–6.7 mm km−1. Few statistically significant trends were discovered in either TCP totals or percentage contribution. TCP is positively related to an index of the position and strength of the western flank of the North Atlantic subtropical high (NASH), with the strongest correlations concentrated in the southeastern United States. Weaker inverse correlations between TCP and El Niño–Southern Oscillation are seen throughout the study site. Ultimately, spatial variations of TCP are more closely linked to variations in the NASH flank position or strength than to the ENSO index. The TCP dataset developed in this study is an important step in understanding hurricane–climate interactions and the impacts of TCs on communities, water resources, and ecosystems in the eastern United States.

scholarly journals Annual Volume and Area Variations in Tropical Cyclone Rainfall over the Eastern United States

2010 ◽  
Vol 23 (16) ◽  
pp. 4363-4374 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ricardo C. Nogueira ◽  
Barry D. Keim
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation ◽  
Statistical Correlation ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Large Area ◽  
Forward Movement ◽  
Rainfall Volume ◽  
Water Volumes ◽  
Annual Water

Abstract This paper examines tropical cyclone (TC) rainfall in the eastern United States from the perspective of documenting accumulated annual water volumes and areas of the precipitation. Volume is a value that merges both rainfall depth and rainfall area into a single metric for each year that can be directly compared between individual years. Area represents the total land area affected by tropical rains. These TC rainfall metrics were then compared to the ENSO and the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO). Time series of annual TC water volumes show an annual average of 107 km3. The maximum volume was produced in 1985 with 405.8 km3, driven by Hurricanes Bob, Claudette, Danny, Elena, Gloria, Henri, Juan, and Kate as well as by Tropical Storms Henri and Isabel. The lowest TC volume occurred in 1978 with 8.9 km3. ENSO phases did not show any statistical correlation with TC frequency in the eastern United States. However, AMO showed a significant correlation with volume and the number of storms affecting the region. TC rainfall volume and area in the eastern United States showed a strong correlation. However, there are exceptions, whereby 1985 stands out as an exceptional volume year though the area affected is not as impressive. In contrast, 1979 is an example when TCs covered a large area with a corresponding small rainfall volume, in part because of the rapid forward movement of the storms, for example, Hurricanes David and Frederic. Since 1995, TCs have become more numerous, producing larger volumes and affecting larger areas.

scholarly journals Warm Season Dry Spells in the Central and Eastern United States: Diverging Skill in Climate Model Representation

2016 ◽  
Vol 29 (15) ◽  
pp. 5617-5624 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siyu Zhao ◽  
Yi Deng ◽  
Robert X. Black
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Warm Season ◽  
Hierarchical Cluster ◽  
Model Representation ◽  
Cmip5 Models ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Dry Spells ◽  
Dry Spell

Abstract Warm season dry spells over the central and eastern United States are classified into three canonical types via a hierarchical cluster analysis for the period 1950–2005. Four CMIP5 models exhibit diverging skill in representing the observed behavior, ranging from southern Great Plains dry spells that are reasonably simulated by all four models to southeastern U.S. dry spells that are only accurately captured by one model. A model’s skill in representing a particular dry spell cluster is positively correlated with the model’s ability to simulate the large-scale meteorological patterns (LMPs) accompanying the dry spell. The interannual variability and overall observed decreasing trend in dry spell days are represented with varying degrees of accuracy by the four models. The results 1) highlight existing shortcomings in the climate model representation of regional dry spells and 2) illustrate the importance of properly simulating the observed spectrum of LMPs in minimizing these shortcomings.

Latinx Folklore and Folklife

2019 ◽  
pp. 755-776
Author(s):  
Norma E. Cantú
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Social Justice ◽  
Cultural Production ◽  
The United States ◽  
First Century ◽  
The Public ◽  
Folklore Studies ◽  
Key Aspects ◽  
Traditional Cultural Expressions ◽  
Future Work

This article, which focuses on the traditional cultural expressions of the Latinx community in the United States, first traces the history and development of Chicanx and Latinx folklore studies. Second, it presents the ways that the study and engagement with these expressions serve as tools for addressing social justice issues faced by Latinxs in the United States in the twenty-first century. To guide future work in the field, it concludes with an assessment of Latinx folklore studies and its role in reconfiguring and reimagining folklore and folklife studies in general. Within this discussion, the essay presents two key aspects of Latinx folklore and folklife that have defined the field—the academic study of folklore and the public-sector engagement by community scholars. Both have affected the ways that Latinx folkloristics have changed the field during the last hundred years and are shaping it as we leave behind outmoded and limited ways of seeing the cultural production of the second-largest ethnic minority in the United States.

scholarly journals Future Changes in Hail Occurrence in the United States Determined through Convection-Permitting Dynamical Downscaling

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (17) ◽  
pp. 5493-5509 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert J. Trapp ◽  
Kimberly A. Hoogewind ◽  
Sonia Lasher-Trapp
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
The United States ◽  
Lower Atmosphere ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Environmental Support ◽  
Convective Storms ◽  
Four Seasons ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Storm Frequency

AbstractThe effect of anthropogenically enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations on the frequency and intensity of hail depends on a range of physical processes and scales. These include the environmental support of the hail-generating convective storms and the frequency of their initiation, the storm volume over which hail growth is promoted, and the depth of the lower atmosphere conducive to melting. Here, we use high-resolution (convection permitting) dynamical downscaling to simultaneously account for these effects. We find broad geographical areas of increases in the frequency of large hail (≳35-mm diameter) over the United States, during all four seasons. Increases in very large hail (≳50-mm diameter) are mostly confined to the central United States, during boreal spring and summer. And, although increases in moderate hail (≳20-mm diameter) are also found throughout the year, decreases occur over much of the eastern United States in summer. Such decreases result from a projected decrease in convective-storm frequency. Overall, these results suggest that the annual U.S. hail season may begin earlier in the year, be lengthened by more than a week, and exhibit more interannual variability in the future.

Observed Local and Remote Influences of Vegetation on the Atmosphere across North America Using a Model-Validated Statistical Technique That First Excludes Oceanic Forcings*

2014 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 362-382 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fuyao Wang ◽  
Michael Notaro ◽  
Zhengyu Liu ◽  
Guangshan Chen
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
North America ◽  
Statistical Method ◽  
North American ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Climate System Model ◽  
The North ◽  
Vegetation Impact

Abstract The observed local and nonlocal influences of vegetation on the atmosphere across North America are quantified after first removing the oceanic impact. The interaction between vegetation and the atmosphere is dominated by forcing from the atmosphere, making it difficult to extract the forcing from vegetation. Furthermore, the atmosphere is not only influenced by vegetation but also the oceans, so in order to extract the vegetation impact, the oceanic forcing must first be excluded. This study identified significant vegetation impact in two climatically and ecologically unique regions: the North American monsoon region (NAMR) and the North American boreal forest (NABF). A multivariate statistical method, a generalized equilibrium feedback assessment, is applied to extract vegetation influence on the atmosphere. The statistical method is validated using a dynamical experiment for the NAMR in a fully coupled climate model, the Community Climate System Model, version 3.5 (CCSM3.5). The observed influence of NAMR vegetation on the atmosphere peaks in June–August and is primarily attributed to both roughness and hydrological feedbacks. Elevated vegetation amount increases evapotranspiration and surface roughness, which leads to a local decline in sea level pressure and generates an atmospheric teleconnection response. This atmospheric response leads to moister and cooler (drier and warmer) conditions over the western and central United States (Gulf states). The observed influence of the NABF on the atmosphere peaks in March–May, related to a thermal feedback. Enhanced vegetation greenness increases the air temperature locally. The atmosphere tends to form a positive Pacific–North American (PNA)-like pattern, and this anomalous atmospheric circulation and associated moisture advection lead to moister (drier) conditions in the western (eastern) United States.

scholarly journals CFSv2-Based Seasonal Hydroclimatic Forecasts over the Conterminous United States

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (13) ◽  
pp. 4828-4847 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yuan ◽  
Eric F. Wood ◽  
Joshua K. Roundy ◽  
Ming Pan
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Monthly Precipitation ◽  
Eastern United States ◽  
Streamflow Prediction ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
Streamflow Forecasts

AbstractThere is a long history of debate on the usefulness of climate model–based seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts as compared to ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP). In this study, the authors use NCEP's operational forecast system, the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and its previous version, CFSv1, to investigate the value of climate models by conducting a set of 27-yr seasonal hydroclimatic hindcasts over the conterminous United States (CONUS). Through Bayesian downscaling, climate models have higher squared correlation R2 and smaller error than ESP for monthly precipitation, and the forecasts conditional on ENSO have further improvements over southern basins out to 4 months. Verification of streamflow forecasts over 1734 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gauges shows that CFSv2 has moderately smaller error than ESP, but all three approaches have limited added skill against climatology beyond 1 month because of overforecasting or underdispersion errors. Using a postprocessor, 60%–70% of probabilistic streamflow forecasts are more skillful than climatology. All three approaches have plausible predictions of soil moisture drought frequency over the central United States out to 6 months, and climate models provide better results over the central and eastern United States. The R2 of drought extent is higher for arid basins and for the forecasts initiated during dry seasons, but significant improvements from CFSv2 occur in different seasons for different basins. The R2 of drought severity accumulated over CONUS is higher during winter, and climate models present added value, especially at long leads. This study indicates that climate models can provide better seasonal hydroclimatic forecasts than ESP through appropriate downscaling procedures, but significant improvements are dependent on the variables, seasons, and regions.

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