Rain and Cloud Perspectives on the Seasonal Cycle over the Western Equatorial Indian Ocean

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 925-940
Author(s):  
Malcolm J. King ◽  
Christian Jakob
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Annual Peak ◽  
High Level ◽  
Cloud Regimes

AbstractConvection over the western equatorial Indian Ocean (WEIO) is strongly linked to precipitation over Africa and Australia but is poorly represented in current climate models, and its observed seasonal cycle is poorly understood. This study investigates the seasonal cycle of convection in the WEIO through rainfall and cloud measurements. Rainfall shows a single annual peak in early austral summer, but cloud proxies identify convective activity maxima in both boreal and austral summer. These diverging measures of convection during boreal summer are indicative of a reduction in the intensity of precipitation associated with a given cloud regime or cloud-top height during this time of year but an increase in the overall occurrence of high-top clouds and convectively active cloud regimes. The change in precipitation intensity associated with regimes is found to explain most of the changes in total precipitation during the period from May to November, whereas changes in the occurrence of convective regimes explains most of the changes throughout the rest of the year. The reduction in precipitation intensities associated with cloud regimes over the WEIO during boreal summer appears to be related to large-scale monsoon circulations, which suppress convection through forcing air descent in the midtroposphere and increase the apparent occurrence of convectively active cloud regimes through the advection of high-level cloud from monsoon-active areas toward the WEIO region.

The Indian Ocean Dipole

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saji N. Hameed
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Forest Fires ◽  
Indian Ocean Dipole ◽  
Seasonal Cycle ◽  
Southern Oscillation ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Eastern Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Discovered at the very end of the 20th century, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is a mode of natural climate variability that arises out of coupled ocean–atmosphere interaction in the Indian Ocean. It is associated with some of the largest changes of ocean–atmosphere state over the equatorial Indian Ocean on interannual time scales. IOD variability is prominent during the boreal summer and fall seasons, with its maximum intensity developing at the end of the boreal-fall season. Between the peaks of its negative and positive phases, IOD manifests a markedly zonal see-saw in anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) and rainfall—leading, in its positive phase, to a pronounced cooling of the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean, and a moderate warming of the western and central equatorial Indian Ocean; this is accompanied by deficit rainfall over the eastern Indian Ocean and surplus rainfall over the western Indian Ocean. Changes in midtropospheric heating accompanying the rainfall anomalies drive wind anomalies that anomalously lift the thermocline in the equatorial eastern Indian Ocean and anomalously deepen them in the central Indian Ocean. The thermocline anomalies further modulate coastal and open-ocean upwelling, thereby influencing biological productivity and fish catches across the Indian Ocean. The hydrometeorological anomalies that accompany IOD exacerbate forest fires in Indonesia and Australia and bring floods and infectious diseases to equatorial East Africa. The coupled ocean–atmosphere instability that is responsible for generating and sustaining IOD develops on a mean state that is strongly modulated by the seasonal cycle of the Austral-Asian monsoon; this setting gives the IOD its unique character and dynamics, including a strong phase-lock to the seasonal cycle. While IOD operates independently of the El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the proximity between the Indian and Pacific Oceans, and the existence of oceanic and atmospheric pathways, facilitate mutual interactions between these tropical climate modes.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Count Forecasting Using a Dynamical Seasonal Prediction System: Sensitivity to Improved Ocean Initialization

2011 ◽  
Vol 24 (12) ◽  
pp. 2963-2982 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Alessandri ◽  
Andrea Borrelli ◽  
Silvio Gualdi ◽  
Enrico Scoccimarro ◽  
Simona Masina
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
North Pacific Ocean ◽  
Convective Available Potential Energy ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Prediction System

Abstract This study investigates the predictability of tropical cyclone (TC) seasonal count anomalies using the Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici–Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (CMCC-INGV) Seasonal Prediction System (SPS). To this aim, nine-member ensemble forecasts for the period 1992–2001 for two starting dates per year were performed. The skill in reproducing the observed TC counts has been evaluated after the application of a TC location and tracking detection method to the retrospective forecasts. The SPS displays good skill in predicting the observed TC count anomalies, particularly over the tropical Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution and interannual variability, thus indicating that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TCs’ occurrence with the large-scale circulation. TC count anomalies prediction has been found to be sensitive to the subsurface assimilation in the ocean for initialization. Comparing the results with control simulations performed without assimilated initial conditions, the results indicate that the assimilation significantly improves the prediction of the TC count anomalies over the eastern North Pacific Ocean (ENP) and northern Indian Ocean (NI) during boreal summer. During the austral counterpart, significant progresses over the area surrounding Australia (AUS) and in terms of the probabilistic quality of the predictions also over the southern Indian Ocean (SI) were evidenced. The analysis shows that the improvement in the prediction of anomalous TC counts follows the enhancement in forecasting daily anomalies in sea surface temperature due to subsurface ocean initialization. Furthermore, the skill changes appear to be in part related to forecast differences in convective available potential energy (CAPE) over the ENP and the North Atlantic Ocean (ATL), in wind shear over the NI, and in both CAPE and wind shear over the SI.

scholarly journals The last interglacial (Eemian) climate simulated by LOVECLIM and CCSM3

2012 ◽  
Vol 8 (5) ◽  
pp. 5293-5340 ◽  
Author(s):  
I. Nikolova ◽  
Q. Yin ◽  
A. Berger ◽  
U. K. Singh ◽  
M. P. Karami
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Interglacial Period ◽  
Last Interglacial ◽  
Proxy Data ◽  
Vegetation Feedback ◽  
Depth Analysis

Abstract. This paper presents a detailed analysis of the climate of the last interglacial simulated by two climate models of different complexities, LOVECLIM and CCSM3. The simulated surface temperature, hydrological cycle, vegetation and ENSO variability during the last interglacial are analyzed through the comparison with the simulated Pre-Industrial (PI) climate. In both models, the last interglacial period is characterized by a significant warming (cooling) over almost all the continents during boreal summer (winter) leading to a largely increased (reduced) seasonal contrast in the northern (southern) hemisphere. This is mainly due to the much higher (lower) insolation received by the whole Earth in boreal summer (winter) during this interglacial. The arctic is warmer than PI through the whole year, resulting from its much higher summer insolation and its remnant effect in the following fall-winter through the interactions between atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. In the tropical Pacific, the change in the SST annual cycle is suggested to be related to a minor shift towards an El Nino, slightly stronger for MIS-5 than for PI. Intensified African monsoon and vegetation feedback are responsible for the cooling during summer in North Africa and Arabian Peninsula. Over India precipitation maximum is found further west, while in Africa the precipitation maximum migrates further north. Trees and grassland expand north in Sahel/Sahara. A mix of forest and grassland occupies continents and expand deep in the high northern latitudes. Desert areas reduce significantly in Northern Hemisphere, but increase in North Australia. The simulated large-scale climate change during the last interglacial compares reasonably well with proxy data, giving credit to both models and reconstructions. However, discrepancies exist at some regional scales between the two models, indicating the necessity of more in depth analysis of the models and comparisons with proxy data.

scholarly journals Atmospheric circulation changes and their impact on extreme sea levels around Australia

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (5) ◽  
pp. 1067-1086 ◽  
Author(s):  
Frank Colberg ◽  
Kathleen L. McInnes ◽  
Julian O'Grady ◽  
Ron Hoeke
Keyword(s):  
Sea Level ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Tide Gauge ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Sea Level Changes ◽  
Sea Level Variability ◽  
Sea Levels ◽  
Extreme Sea Levels ◽  
Coastal Sea

Abstract. Projections of sea level rise (SLR) will lead to increasing coastal impacts during extreme sea level events globally; however, there is significant uncertainty around short-term coastal sea level variability and the attendant frequency and severity of extreme sea level events. In this study, we investigate drivers of coastal sea level variability (including extremes) around Australia by means of historical conditions as well as future changes under a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario (RCP 8.5). To do this, a multi-decade hindcast simulation is validated against tide gauge data. The role of tide–surge interaction is assessed and found to have negligible effects on storm surge characteristic heights over most of the coastline. For future projections, 20-year-long simulations are carried out over the time periods 1981–1999 and 2081–2099 using atmospheric forcing from four CMIP5 climate models. Changes in extreme sea levels are apparent, but there are large inter-model differences. On the southern mainland coast all models simulated a southward movement of the subtropical ridge which led to a small reduction in sea level extremes in the hydrodynamic simulations. Sea level changes over the Gulf of Carpentaria in the north are largest and positive during austral summer in two out of the four models. In these models, changes to the northwest monsoon appear to be the cause of the sea level response. These simulations highlight a sensitivity of this semi-enclosed gulf to changes in large-scale dynamics in this region and indicate that further assessment of the potential changes to the northwest monsoon in a larger multi-model ensemble should be investigated, together with the northwest monsoon's effect on extreme sea levels.

Cloud regimes and associated MJO variability over the Maritime Continent in austral summer

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zijie Zhao ◽  
Claire Vincent ◽  
Todd Lane
Keyword(s):  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Maritime Continent ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Scale Modelling ◽  
A New Technique ◽  
Climate Scale ◽  
High Level ◽  
Cloud Patterns ◽  
Cloud Regimes

<p>In this study, a new technique to determine distinct cloud regimes and their variation in space and time is proposed, evaluated, and applied to two satellite products over the Maritime Continent (MC). Compared to previous methods, the method presented here allows different types of cloud to co-exist in the same grid at the same time, giving rise to physically explainable and spatially continuous patterns in cloud regimes. Similar results generated by ISCCP – H and Himawari 8 data suggests that the method is robust. The 4 cloud regimes determined using this method are associated with shallow, mid-level, deep convective and high level clouds respectively. The analysis shows that he MJO–induced variation in total cloud fraction is dominated by day-time high–level clouds, while the diurnal MJO variability is mostly demonstrated by low–level cumulus. Spatial and temporal rainfall variability over the MC during austral summer is dominated by high–level clouds, while most local signatures and land–sea differences are attributed to deep convective clouds. Using an artificial neural network, the cloud patterns over the MC can be classified into nine categories, largely dominated by the MJO-phase. Active MJO activity is shown by systematic propagation around the cloud categories, with one category associated with the inactive MJO phase. The inhomogenous propagation of the MJO can partially be revealed in the generated patterns, which can be physically explained by the enhanced/suppressed convection over the Indian Ocean. This work has implications for understanding the MJO-scale variation in precipitation and diabatic heating associated with different cloud regimes, and its representation in mesoscale and climate scale modelling systems.</p>

scholarly journals The sensitivity of the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge to large-scale wind anomalies

2009 ◽  
Vol 66 (7) ◽  
pp. 1455-1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Juliet C. Hermes ◽  
Chris J. C. Reason
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Tropical Indian Ocean ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
The South ◽  
South Indian Ocean ◽  
Southwest Indian Ocean ◽  
South Indian

Abstract Hermes, J. C., and Reason, C. J. C. 2009. The sensitivity of the Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge to large-scale wind anomalies. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 66: 1455–1466. The Seychelles–Chagos thermocline ridge (SCTR) in the southwest tropical Indian Ocean is important for regional climate, the Madden–Julian Oscillation, as well as upper-ocean nutrients and related phytoplankton and zooplankton densities. Subsurface variability in this region has been proved to influence the overlying sea surface temperatures, which in turn can influence eastern African rainfall. There is evidence that austral summers with a deeper (shallower) SCTR tend to have more (less) tropical cyclone (TC) days in the Southwest Indian Ocean. The importance of this relationship was underlined during the 2006/2007 austral summer, when areas of Madagascar and central Mozambique experienced devastating floods, because of ten named tropical storms, including several intense TCs, effecting on these areas. At the same time, the SCTR during this season was anomalously deep, partly because of a downwelling Rossby wave that propagated across the South Indian Ocean during the previous austral winter/spring. In this paper, a regional ocean model is used to investigate the effect of remote forcing on this region and to study the sensitivity of the SCTR to changes in the large-scale winds over the South Indian Ocean, with a particular focus on the events of the 2006/2007 austral summer.

scholarly journals Weakening Trend of the Tropical Easterly Jet Stream of the Boreal Summer Monsoon Season 1950–2009

2013 ◽  
Vol 26 (23) ◽  
pp. 9408-9414 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. Abish ◽  
P. V. Joseph ◽  
Ola M. Johannessen
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Summer Monsoon Season ◽  
Upper Troposphere ◽  
Tropical Easterly Jet

Recent research has reported that the tropical easterly jet stream (TEJ) of the boreal summer monsoon season is weakening. The analysis herein using 60 yr (1950–2009) of data reveals that this weakening of the TEJ is due to the decreasing trend in the upper tropospheric meridional temperature gradient over the area covered by the TEJ. During this period, the upper troposphere over the equatorial Indian Ocean has warmed due to enhanced deep moist convection associated with the rapid warming of the equatorial Indian Ocean. At the same time, a cooling of the upper troposphere has taken place over the Northern Hemisphere subtropics including the Tibetan anticyclone. The simultaneous cooling of the subtropics and the equatorial heating has caused a decrease in the upper tropospheric meridional thermal gradient. The consequent reduction in the strength of the easterly thermal wind has resulted in the weakening of the TEJ.

scholarly journals Seasonal prediction of cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal during summer monsoon season : Identification of potential predictors

MAUSAM ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 61 (4) ◽  
pp. 469-486
Author(s):  
M. MOHAPATRA ◽  
S. ADHIKARY
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Bay Of Bengal ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Seasonal Prediction ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Scale Field ◽  
Large Scale Field ◽  
Cyclonic Disturbances

The cyclonic disturbances (CD) over the Bay of Bengal during monsoon season have significant impact on rainfall over India. On many occasions, they cause flood leading to loss of lives and properties. Hence, any early information about the frequency of occurrence of such disturbances will help immensely the disaster managers and planners. However, the studies are limited on the seasonal prediction of CD over the Bay of Bengal unlike other Ocean basins of the world. Hence, a study has been undertaken to find out the potential predictors during the months of April and May for prediction of frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal during monsoon season (June – September). For this purpose, best track data of India Meteorological Department and large scale field parameters based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data have been analyzed for the period of 1948 – 2007.  The linear correlation analysis has been applied between frequency of CD and large scale field parameters based on NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to find out the potential predictors.   The large scale field parameters over the equatorial Indian Ocean, especially over west equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining Arabian Sea (up to 15° N) should be favourable in April and May with lower mean sea level pressure (MSLP), lower geopotential heights and stronger southerlies in lower and middle levels, along with stronger northerly components at upper level for higher frequency of CD during subsequent monsoon season. Consequently, there should be increase in relative humidity (RH) and precipitable water content and decrease in outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) and temperature at lower levels over this region during April and May for higher frequency of CD during subsequent monsoon  season. Comparing the area of significant correlation between frequency of CD and large scale field parameters and its stability from April to September, MSLP and geopotential heights are most influencing parameters followed by OLR, sea surface temperature, air temperature and RH at 850 hPa level.

The Influence on Summer Rainfall in the Lesotho Lowlands from Indian Ocean SSTs

2002 ◽  
Vol 33 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars Hydén
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Southern Africa ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Summer Rainfall ◽  
Significant Negative Correlation ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Ocean Area ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Lesotho is located approximately at latitude 30 degrees south in the interior of Southern Africa. The mesoscale climate is complicated and governed by various weather systems. The inter-annual rainfall variability is great, resulting in low food security, since the growing of crops in the Lesotho Lowlands is almost exclusively rain-fed. Reliable forecasts of austral summer rainfall are thus valuable. Earlier research has shown that the sea surface temperatures (SST) in the Indian Ocean to some extent govern rainfall in Southern Africa. The research presented is part of an on-going project to find suitable oceanographic and meteorological predictors, which can be used in a forecast model for summer rainfall, to be developed later. The first part of this paper investigates the correlation between the average SSTs in the Equatorial Indian Ocean, the Central Indian Ocean, and the Agulhas Gyre, respectively, and rainfall two months later in the Lesotho Lowlands during early austral summer, October until December for the period 1949-1995. No significant correlations have been found, probably because the three ocean areas are too large. In the second part of this paper the monthly SST in 132 grid squares in the Indian Ocean were investigated and found to be correlated with rainfall in the Lesotho Lowlands two months later, October until March. Significant correlations have been found between the SSTs and certain ocean areas and December, January, and February rainfall, respectively. There is significant negative correlation between December rainfall and October SST in an ocean area between Kenya and Somalia across the Indian Ocean to Sumatra. In the area where the Somali Current flows there is also significant correlation between December SST and December rainfall. January rainfall is significantly negatively correlated with November SST in an ocean area, northeast of Madagascar. February rainfall is significantly, but weakly, negatively correlated with SST in a narrow north-south corridor in the Eastern Indian Ocean from the equator down to latitude 40 degrees south.

scholarly journals Indian Ocean Variability and Its Association with ENSO in a Global Coupled Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (17) ◽  
pp. 3634-3649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Aihong Zhong ◽  
Harry H. Hendon ◽  
Oscar Alves
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
Positive Feedback ◽  
El Niño ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
Boreal Summer ◽  
Enso Events ◽  
Coupled Mode ◽  
Eastern Equatorial Indian Ocean ◽  
The Indian Ocean

Abstract The evolution of the Indian Ocean during El Niño–Southern Oscillation is investigated in a 100-yr integration of an Australian Bureau of Meteorology coupled seasonal forecast model. During El Niño, easterly anomalies are induced across the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean. These act to suppress the equatorial thermocline to the west and elevate it to the east and initially cool (warm) the sea surface temperature (SST) in the east (west). Subsequently, the entire Indian Ocean basin warms, mainly in response to the reduced latent heat flux and enhanced shortwave radiation that is associated with suppressed rainfall. This evolution can be partially explained by the excitation of an intrinsic coupled mode that involves a feedback between anomalous equatorial easterlies and zonal gradients in SST and rainfall. This positive feedback develops in the boreal summer and autumn seasons when the mean thermocline is shallow in the eastern equatorial Indian Ocean in response to trade southeasterlies. This positive feedback diminishes once the climatological surface winds become westerly at the onset of the Australian summer monsoon. ENSO is the leading mechanism that excites this coupled mode, but not all ENSO events are efficient at exciting it. During the typical El Niño (La Niña) event, easterly (westerly) anomalies are not induced until after boreal autumn, which is too late in the annual cycle to instigate strong dynamical coupling. Only those ENSO events that develop early (i.e., before boreal summer) instigate a strong coupled response in the Indian Ocean. The coupled mode can also be initiated in early boreal summer by an equatorward shift of the subtropical ridge in the southern Indian Ocean, which stems from uncoupled extratropical variability.

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