Extratropical Cyclone Clouds in the GFDL Climate Model: Diagnosing Biases and the Associated Causes

2019 ◽  
Vol 32 (20) ◽  
pp. 6685-6701 ◽  
Author(s):  
Catherine M. Naud ◽  
James F. Booth ◽  
Jeyavinoth Jeyaratnam ◽  
Leo J. Donner ◽  
Charles J. Seman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Tuning Parameters ◽  
Model Cloud ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Cloud Parameterization ◽  
High Level

Abstract The clouds in Southern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones generated by the GFDL climate model are analyzed against MODIS, CloudSat, and CALIPSO cloud and precipitation observations. Two model versions are used: one is a developmental version of “AM4,” a model GFDL that will utilize for CMIP6, and the other is the same model with a different parameterization of moist convection. Both model versions predict a realistic top-of-atmosphere cloud cover in the southern oceans, within 5% of the observations. However, an examination of cloud cover transects in extratropical cyclones reveals a tendency in the models to overestimate high-level clouds (by differing amounts) and underestimate cloud cover at low levels (again by differing amounts), especially in the post–cold frontal (PCF) region, when compared with observations. In focusing only on the models, it is seen that their differences in high and midlevel clouds are consistent with their differences in convective activity and relative humidity (RH), but the same is not true for the PCF region. In this region, RH is higher in the model with less cloud fraction. These seemingly contradictory cloud and RH differences can be explained by differences in the cloud-parameterization tuning parameters that ensure radiative balance. In the PCF region, the model cloud differences are smaller than either of the model biases with respect to observations, suggesting that other physics changes are needed to address the bias. The process-oriented analysis used to assess these model differences will soon be automated and shared.

High world sugar prices: is Asia’s production cycle to blame?

2010 ◽  
pp. 169-173
Author(s):  
Martin Todd
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chain ◽  
Supply And Demand ◽  
Production Cycle ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
High Level ◽  
High World

The current high world sugar prices reflect a major imbalance between global supply and demand, which has reduced stocks to very low levels. Although it remains to be seen whether prices will rise much above current values, it is clear that the supply chain will remain stretched throughout 2010 and this will help to maintain prices at a high level.

scholarly journals Testing Todd: family types and development

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-18
Author(s):  
Jerg Gutmann ◽  
Stefan Voigt
Keyword(s):  
Rule Of Law ◽  
Civil Society Organizations ◽  
The Rule Of Law ◽  
State Fragility ◽  
Family Types ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Parsimonious Model ◽  
The One ◽  
High Level

Abstract Many years ago, Emmanuel Todd came up with a classification of family types and argued that the historically prevalent family types in a society have important consequences for its economic, political, and social development. Here, we evaluate Todd's most important predictions empirically. Relying on a parsimonious model with exogenous covariates, we find mixed results. On the one hand, authoritarian family types are, in stark contrast to Todd's predictions, associated with increased levels of the rule of law and innovation. On the other hand, and in line with Todd's expectations, communitarian family types are linked to racism, low levels of the rule of law, and late industrialization. Countries in which endogamy is frequently practiced also display an expectedly high level of state fragility and weak civil society organizations.

scholarly journals New developments in the representation of Saharan dust sources in the aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 765-777 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bernd Heinold ◽  
Ina Tegen ◽  
Kerstin Schepanski ◽  
Jamie R. Banks
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Dust Emission ◽  
Source Area ◽  
Saharan Dust ◽  
Moist Convection ◽  
Dust Source ◽  
New Developments ◽  
Infrared Imager ◽  
Dust Sources ◽  
Dust Events

Abstract. In the aerosol–climate model ECHAM6-HAM2, dust source activation (DSA) observations from Meteosat Second Generation (MSG) satellite are proposed to replace the original source area parameterization over the Sahara Desert. The new setup is tested in nudged simulations for the period 2007 to 2008. The evaluation is based on comparisons to dust emission events inferred from MSG dust index imagery, Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sun photometer observations, and satellite retrievals of aerosol optical thickness (AOT).The model results agree well with AERONET measurements especially in terms of seasonal variability, and a good spatial correlation was found between model results and MSG-SEVIRI (Spinning-Enhanced Visible and InfraRed Imager) dust AOT as well as Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) AOT. ECHAM6-HAM2 computes a more realistic geographical distribution and up to 20 % higher annual Saharan dust emissions, using the MSG-based source map. The representation of dust AOT is partly improved in the southern Sahara and Sahel. In addition, the spatial variability is increased towards a better agreement with observations depending on the season. Thus, using the MSG DSA map can help to circumvent the issue of uncertain soil input parameters.An important issue remains the need to improve the model representation of moist convection and stable nighttime conditions. Compared to sub-daily DSA information from MSG-SEVIRI and results from a regional model, ECHAM6-HAM2 notably underestimates the important fraction of morning dust events by the breakdown of the nocturnal low-level jet, while a major contribution is from afternoon-to-evening emissions.

Flavonoids and UV Photoprotection in Arabidopsis Mutants

2001 ◽  
Vol 56 (9-10) ◽  
pp. 745-754 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ken G Ryan ◽  
Ewald E Swinny ◽  
Chris Winefield ◽  
Kenneth R Markham
Keyword(s):  
Crucial Role ◽  
Hydroxycinnamic Acid ◽  
Ultraviolet B ◽  
Uvb Radiation ◽  
Wild Type ◽  
Hydroxycinnamic Acid Derivatives ◽  
Quercetin Glycosides ◽  
Kaempferol Glycosides ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
High Level

AbstractWild-type Arabidopsis L. leaves exposed to low ultraviolet-B (U V B ) conditions contained predominantly kaempferol glycosides, with low levels of quercetin glycosides. The flavonoid level doubled on treatment with UVB and an increase in the ratio of quercetin: kaempferol was observed. These results suggest that flavonols protect Arabidopsis plants from UVB damage, and indicate that the flavonoid 3’-hydroxylase (F3’H) enzyme, which converts dihydrokaempferol to dihydroquercetin, may play a crucial role. The tt7 mutant lacks this gene and, after treatment with sub-ambient UVB, contained kaempferol glycosides exclusively, to a level of total flavonols similar to that in wild-type Arabidopsis. Total flavonols after enhanced UVB treatment were higher in tt7 than in similarly treated wild-type plants, and only kaempferol glycosides were detected. Despite this high level, tt7 plants were less tolerant of UVB radiation than wild-type plants. These observations suggests that kaempferol is a less effective photoprotectant than quercetin. The chalcone isomerase (CHI) mutant (tt5) surprisingly did not accumulate naringenin chalcone, and this suggests that the mutation may not be restricted to the CHI gene alone. The concentration of hydroxycinnamic acid derivatives did not change with UVB treatment in most varieties indicating that their role in UV photoprotection may be subordinate to that of the flavonoids.

The dynamics of Holocene monsoon based on meteoric 10Be at Kunlun Pass on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peng Chen ◽  
Zhongbo Yu ◽  
Markus Czymzik ◽  
Ala Aldahan ◽  
Jinguo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atmospheric Circulation ◽  
Summer Monsoon ◽  
Asian Summer Monsoon ◽  
Early Holocene ◽  
Tibet Plateau ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Proxy Records ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
High Level ◽  
Qinghai Tibet Plateau

<p>Multiple proxy records have been used for the understanding of environmental and climate changes during the Holocene. For the first time, we here measure meteoric <sup>10</sup>Be isotope of sediments from a drill core collected at the Kunlun Pass (KP) on the northeastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (NETP) to investigate mositure and atmospheric circulation changes during the Holocene. The <sup>10</sup>Be flux suggests relative low levels in the Early Holocene, followed by a sharp increase to high values at around 4 ka BP (4 ka BP = 4000 years before present). Afterwards, the <sup>10</sup>Be flux remains on a high level during the Late Holocene, but decreases slightly towards today. These <sup>10</sup>Be deposition patterns are compared to moisture changes in regions dominated by the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM), East Asian Summer Monsoon (EASM), and the Westerlies. Different from the gradual changes in monsoon patterns, the <sup>10</sup>Be data reveal low levels during the Early Holocene until ~4 ka BP when an obvious increase was indicated and a relative high level continues to this day, which is relatively more in agreement with patterns of the Westerlies. This finding provides a new evidence for a shift in the dominant pattern of atmospheric circulation at the KP region from a more monsoonal one to one dominated by the Westerlies. Our results improve the understanding of non-stationary interactions and spatial relevance of the EASM, the ISM and the Westerlies on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau.</p>

scholarly journals Model calculations of the age of firn air across the Antarctic continent

2004 ◽  
Vol 4 (5) ◽  
pp. 1365-1380 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. A. Kaspers ◽  
R. S. W. van de Wal ◽  
M. R. van den Broeke ◽  
J. Schwander ◽  
N. P. M. van Lipzig ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Accumulation Rate ◽  
Methyl Chloride ◽  
Trace Gas ◽  
Model Calculations ◽  
Antarctic Plateau ◽  
Input Surface ◽  
Antarctic Continent ◽  
High Level ◽  
Air Diffusion

Abstract. The age of firn air in Antarctica at pore close-off depth is only known for a few specific sites where firn air has been sampled for analyses. We present a model that calculates the age of firn air at pore close-off depth for the entire Antarctic continent. The model basically uses four meteorological parameters as input (surface temperature, pressure, accumulation rate and wind speed). Using parameterisations for surface snow density, pore close-off density and tortuosity, in combination with a density-depth model and data of a regional atmospheric climate model, distribution of pore close-off depth for the entire Antarctic continent is determined. The deepest pore close-off depth was found for the East Antarctic Plateau near 72° E, 82° S, at 150±15 m (2σ). A firn air diffusion model was applied to calculate the age of CO2 at pore close-off depth. The results predict that the oldest firn gas (CO2 age) is located between Dome Fuji, Dome Argos and Vostok at 43° E, 78° S being 148±23 (1σ or 38 for 2σ) years old. At this location an atmospheric trace gas record should be obtained. In this study we show that methyl chloride could be recorded with a predicted length of 125 years as an example for trace gas records at this location. The longest record currently available from firn air is derived at South Pole, being 80 years. Sensitivity tests reveal that the locations with old firn air (East Antarctic Plateau) have an estimated uncertainty (2σ) for the modelled CO2 age at pore close-off depth of 30% and of about 40% for locations with younger firn air (CO2 age typically 40 years). Comparing the modelled age of CO2 at pore close-off depth with directly determined ages at seven sites yielded a correlation coefficient of 0.90 and a slope close to 1, suggesting a high level of confidence for the modelled results in spite of considerable remaining uncertainties.

scholarly journals Global Radiative Flux and Cloudiness Variability for the Period 1959–2010 in Belgium: A Comparison between Reanalyses and the Regional Climate Model MAR

Atmosphere ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 262 ◽  
Author(s):  
Coraline Wyard ◽  
Sébastien Doutreloup ◽  
Alexandre Belleflamme ◽  
Martin Wild ◽  
Xavier Fettweis
Keyword(s):  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Regional Climate Models ◽  
Horizontal Resolution ◽  
Radiative Flux ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
The Mean

The use of regional climate models (RCMs) can partly reduce the biases in global radiative flux (Eg↓) that are found in reanalysis products and global models, as they allow for a finer spatial resolution and a finer parametrisation of surface and atmospheric processes. In this study, we assess the ability of the MAR («Modèle Atmosphérique Régional») RCM to reproduce observed changes in Eg↓, and we investigate the added value of MAR with respect to reanalyses. Simulations were performed at a horizontal resolution of 5 km for the period 1959–2010 by forcing MAR with different reanalysis products: ERA40/ERA-interim, NCEP/NCAR-v1, ERA-20C, and 20CRV2C. Measurements of Eg↓ from the Global Energy Balance Archive (GEBA) and from the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMIB), as well as cloud cover observations from Belgocontrol and RMIB, were used for the evaluation of the MAR model and the forcing reanalyses. Results show that MAR enables largely reducing the mean biases that are present in the reanalyses. The trend analysis shows that only MAR forced by ERA40/ERA-interim shows historical trends, which is probably because the ERA40/ERA-interim has a better horizontal resolution and assimilates more observations than the other reanalyses that are used in this study. The results suggest that the solar brightening observed since the 1980s in Belgium has mainly been due to decreasing cloud cover.

scholarly journals Using satellite and reanalysis data to evaluate the representation of latent heating in extratropical cyclones in a climate model

2016 ◽  
Vol 48 (7-8) ◽  
pp. 2255-2278 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matt Hawcroft ◽  
Helen Dacre ◽  
Richard Forbes ◽  
Kevin Hodges ◽  
Len Shaffrey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Latent Heating

scholarly journals Key drivers of ozone change and its radiative forcing over the 21st century

2018 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 6121-6139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fernando Iglesias-Suarez ◽  
Douglas E. Kinnison ◽  
Alexandru Rap ◽  
Amanda C. Maycock ◽  
Oliver Wild ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
21St Century ◽  
Radiative Forcing ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Stratospheric Ozone ◽  
Atmospheric Composition ◽  
Climate Conditions ◽  
Radiative Balance ◽  
Radiative Forcings ◽  
Year 2000

Abstract. Over the 21st century changes in both tropospheric and stratospheric ozone are likely to have important consequences for the Earth's radiative balance. In this study, we investigate the radiative forcing from future ozone changes using the Community Earth System Model (CESM1), with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM), and including fully coupled radiation and chemistry schemes. Using year 2100 conditions from the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) scenario, we quantify the individual contributions to ozone radiative forcing of (1) climate change, (2) reduced concentrations of ozone depleting substances (ODSs), and (3) methane increases. We calculate future ozone radiative forcings and their standard error (SE; associated with inter-annual variability of ozone) relative to year 2000 of (1) 33 ± 104 m Wm−2, (2) 163 ± 109 m Wm−2, and (3) 238 ± 113 m Wm−2 due to climate change, ODSs, and methane, respectively. Our best estimate of net ozone forcing in this set of simulations is 430 ± 130 m Wm−2 relative to year 2000 and 760 ± 230 m Wm−2 relative to year 1750, with the 95 % confidence interval given by ±30 %. We find that the overall long-term tropospheric ozone forcing from methane chemistry–climate feedbacks related to OH and methane lifetime is relatively small (46 m Wm−2). Ozone radiative forcing associated with climate change and stratospheric ozone recovery are robust with regard to background climate conditions, even though the ozone response is sensitive to both changes in atmospheric composition and climate. Changes in stratospheric-produced ozone account for ∼ 50 % of the overall radiative forcing for the 2000–2100 period in this set of simulations, highlighting the key role of the stratosphere in determining future ozone radiative forcing.

scholarly journals The Effect of Problem Based Learning Models and Levels of Creativity Toward Student Outcomes in Vocational High School

2019 ◽  
Vol 1 (6) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dasining Dasining ◽  
Supari Muslim ◽  
Sri Handajani
Keyword(s):  
Student Learning ◽  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Problem Based Learning ◽  
Student Learning Outcomes ◽  
Learning Model ◽  
Higher Learning ◽  
Learning Models ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Direct Learning ◽  
High Level

This study aims to determine the level of creativity of students who are taught using problem based learning models and students who are taught using direct learning models. To find out the learning outcomes of students who have a high level of creativity and creativity level of creativity is low. The method used in this study is Quasi Experimental. The design used is a 2x2 factorial design, because this design can be used to see student learning outcomes before administering treatments and after giving treatments. The results of the study found: (1) the level of creativity of students who study using a learning model based on higher learning outcomes compared to students who learn with the direct learning model; (2) student learning outcomes with a high level of creativity, significantly higher than students who have low levels of creativity; and (3) there is an interaction between the use of learning models and the level of creativity on student learning outcomes. This study concludes that: (1) problem based learning models can improve student creativity; (2) students who have a high level of creativity, higher learning outcomes than students who have low levels of creativity; and (3) there is an interaction between the use of learning models and the level of creativity on student learning outcomes.

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