scholarly journals Relationships between South Atlantic SST Variability and Atmospheric Circulation over the South African Region during Austral Winter

2005 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 3339-3355 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. J. C. Reason ◽  
D. Jagadheesha
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
The South ◽  
Winter Rainfall ◽  
Southwest Atlantic ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract The Southwestern Cape (SWC) region of South Africa is characterized by winter rainfall brought mainly via cold fronts and by substantial interannual variability. Previous work has found evidence that the interannual variability in SWC winter rainfall may be related to sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Atlantic Ocean and to large-scale ocean–atmosphere interaction in this region. During wet winters, SST tends to be anomalously warm (cool) in the southwest Atlantic and southeast Atlantic (central South Atlantic). Atmospheric general circulation model experiments with various idealized SST anomalies in the South Atlantic are used to explore mechanisms potentially associated with the rainfall variability. The model results suggest that the atmosphere is sensitive to subtropical–midlatitude SST anomalies in the South Atlantic during winter. Locally, there are changes to the jet position and strength, low-level relative vorticity, and convergence of moisture and latent heat flux that lead to changes in rainfall over the SWC. The model response to the SST forcing also shows large-scale anomalies in the midlatitude Southern Hemisphere circulation, namely, an Antarctic Oscillation–type mode and wavenumber-3 changes, similar to those observed during anomalous winters in the region.

scholarly journals Revisiting remote drivers of the 2014 drought in South-Eastern Brazil

2020 ◽  
Vol 55 (11-12) ◽  
pp. 3197-3211
Author(s):  
Kathrin Finke ◽  
Bernat Jiménez-Esteve ◽  
Andréa S. Taschetto ◽  
Caroline C. Ummenhofer ◽  
Karl Bumke ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Indian Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Tropical Pacific ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
The South ◽  
South Eastern ◽  
Eastern Brazil ◽  
The Indian Ocean ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract South-Eastern Brazil experienced a devastating drought associated with significant agricultural losses in austral summer 2014. The drought was linked to the development of a quasi-stationary anticyclone in the South Atlantic in early 2014 that affected local precipitation patterns over South-East Brazil. Previous studies have suggested that the unusual blocking was triggered by tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and, more recently, by convection over the Indian Ocean related to the Madden–Julian Oscillation. Further investigation of the proposed teleconnections appears crucial for anticipating future economic impacts. In this study, we use numerical experiments with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model forced with the observed 2013/2014 SST anomalies in different ocean basins to understand the dominant mechanism that initiated the 2014 South Atlantic anticyclonic anomaly. We show that a forcing with global 2013/2014 SST anomalies enhances the chance for the occurrence of positive geopotential height anomalies in the South Atlantic. However, further sensitivity experiments with SST forcings in separate ocean basins suggest that neither the Indian Ocean nor tropical Pacific SST anomalies alone have contributed significantly to the anomalous atmospheric circulation that led to the 2014 South-East Brazil drought. The model study rather points to an important role of remote forcing from the South Pacific, local South Atlantic SSTs, and internal atmospheric variability in driving the persistent blocking over the South Atlantic.

scholarly journals What Determines the Position and Intensity of the South Atlantic Anticyclone in Austral Winter?—An AGCM Study

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 214-229 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ingo Richter ◽  
Carlos R. Mechoso ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Sea Surface ◽  
Sea Surface Temperatures ◽  
Model Errors ◽  
Austral Winter ◽  
The South ◽  
Surface Temperatures

Abstract The South Atlantic anticyclone is a major feature of the austral winter climatology. An atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) is used to study the dynamics of the South Atlantic anticyclone by means of control simulations and experiments to investigate sensitivity to prescribed orography, sea surface temperatures, and soil wetness. The South Atlantic anticyclone in the first control simulation is unrealistically zonally elongated and centered too far west—errors typical of coupled ocean–atmosphere GCMs. Results of the sensitivity experiments suggest that these deficiencies are associated with another family of systematic model errors: the overprediction of convection over the tropical land surfaces, particularly over eastern tropical Africa and India, and the concurrent large-scale westward shift in the divergence center at upper levels and the convergence center at lower levels. The results also confirm the important role of South American and African orography in localizing the South Atlantic anticyclone over the ocean. Other factors, however, like the regional zonal gradients of sea surface temperatures, are found to have only a minor impact on the anticyclone. To further substantiate these findings, the wintertime anticyclone is examined using a revised version of the atmospheric GCM. Improvements are found in both the anticyclone as well as the Asia–African summer monsoon circulations. The results demonstrate the existence of links between intensity and structure of the wintertime South Atlantic anticyclone and the major summer monsoons in the Northern Hemisphere.

scholarly journals PDO-Related Wintertime Atmospheric Anomalies over the Midlatitude North Pacific: Local versus Remote SST Forcing

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (16) ◽  
pp. 6989-7010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lingfeng Tao ◽  
Xiu-Qun Yang ◽  
Jiabei Fang ◽  
Xuguang Sun
Keyword(s):  
North Pacific ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Transient Eddy ◽  
Atmospheric Variability ◽  
Ridge Structure ◽  
Sst Gradient ◽  
Meridional Sst Gradient ◽  
Sst Anomalies

AbstractObserved wintertime atmospheric anomalies over the central North Pacific associated with the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) are characterized by a cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure, that is, an anomalous equivalent barotropic low (high) over a negative (positive) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly. While the midlatitude atmosphere has its own strong internal variabilities, to what degree local SST anomalies can affect the midlatitude atmospheric variability remains unclear. To identify such an impact, three atmospheric general circulation model experiments each having a 63-yr-long simulation are conducted. The control run forced by observed global SST reproduces well the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) structure. However, the removal of the midlatitude North Pacific SST variabilities in the first sensitivity run reduces the atmospheric response by roughly one-third. In the second sensitivity run in which large-scale North Pacific SST variabilities are mostly kept, but their frontal-scale meridional gradients are sharply smoothed, simulated PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies are also reduced by nearly one-third. Dynamical diagnoses exhibit that such a reduction is primarily due to the weakened transient eddy activities that are induced by weakened meridional SST gradient anomalies, in which the transient eddy vorticity forcing plays a crucial role. Therefore, it is suggested that midlatitude North Pacific SST anomalies make a considerable (approximately one-third) contribution to the observed PDO-related cold/trough (warm/ridge) anomalies in which the frontal-scale meridional SST gradient (oceanic front) is a key player, although most of those atmospheric anomalies are determined by the SST variabilities outside of the midlatitude North Pacific.

scholarly journals South Atlantic Variability Arising from Air–Sea Coupling: Local Mechanisms and Tropical–Subtropical Interactions

2007 ◽  
Vol 20 (14) ◽  
pp. 3345-3365 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sylwia Trzaska ◽  
Andrew W. Robertson ◽  
John D. Farrara ◽  
Carlos R. Mechoso
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Wave Train ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Ocean Dynamics ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Tropical Atlantic ◽  
Shallow Clouds ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract Interannual variability in the southern and equatorial Atlantic is investigated using an atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) coupled to a slab ocean model (SOM) in the Atlantic in order to isolate features of air–sea interactions particular to this basin. Simulated covariability between sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and atmosphere is very similar to the observed non-ENSO-related covariations in both spatial structures and time scales. The leading simulated empirical coupled mode resembles the zonal mode in the tropical Atlantic, despite the lack of ocean dynamics, and is associated with baroclinic atmospheric anomalies in the Tropics and a Rossby wave train extending to the extratropics, suggesting an atmospheric response to tropical SST forcing. The second non-ENSO mode is the subtropical dipole in the SST with a mainly equivalent barotropic atmospheric anomaly centered on the subtropical high and associated with a midlatitude wave train, consistent with atmospheric forcing of the subtropical SST. The power spectrum of the tropical mode in both simulation and observation is red with two major interannual peaks near 5 and 2 yr. The quasi-biennial component exhibits a progression between the subtropics and the Tropics. It is phase locked to the seasonal cycle and owes its existence to the imbalances between SST–evaporation and SST–shortwave radiation feedbacks. These feedbacks are found to be reversed between the western and eastern South Atlantic, associated with the dominant role of deep convection in the west and that of shallow clouds in the east. A correct representation of tropical–extratropical interactions and of deep and shallow clouds may thus be crucial to the simulation of realistic interannual variability in the southern and tropical Atlantic.

scholarly journals The South Atlantic Subtropical High: Climatology and Interannual Variability

2017 ◽  
Vol 30 (9) ◽  
pp. 3279-3296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiaoming Sun ◽  
Kerry H. Cook ◽  
Edward K. Vizy
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Austral Summer ◽  
Southern Annular Mode ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Subtropical High ◽  
Interannual Variations ◽  
The South ◽  
The North

ERA-Interim and JRA-55 reanalysis products are analyzed to document the annual cycle of the South Atlantic subtropical high (SASH) and examine how its interannual variability relates to regional and large-scale climate variability. The annual cycle of the SASH is found to have two peaks in both intensity and size. The SASH is strongest and largest during the solstitial months when its center is either closest to the equator and on the western side of the South Atlantic basin during austral winter or farthest poleward and in the center of the basin in late austral summer. Although interannual variations in the SASH’s position are larger in the zonal direction, the intensity of the high decreases when it is positioned to the north. This relationship is statistically significant in every month. Seasonal composites and EOF analysis indicate that meridional changes in the position of the SASH dominate interannual variations in austral summer. In particular, the anticyclone tends to be displaced poleward in La Niña years when the southern annular mode (SAM) is in its positive phase and vice versa. Wave activity flux vectors suggest that ENSO-related convective anomalies located in the central-eastern tropical Pacific act as a remote forcing for the meridional variability of the summertime SASH. In southern winter, multiple processes operate in concert to induce interannual variability, and none of them appears to dominate like ENSO does during the summer.

scholarly journals Enhancing Dynamical Seasonal Predictions through Objective Regionalization

2017 ◽  
Vol 56 (5) ◽  
pp. 1431-1442 ◽  
Author(s):  
Saleh Satti ◽  
Benjamin F. Zaitchik ◽  
Hamada S. Badr ◽  
Tsegaye Tadesse
Keyword(s):  
East Africa ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Ocean General Circulation Model ◽  
Seasonal Forecasts ◽  
Interannual Rainfall Variability ◽  
Local Grid

AbstractImproving seasonal forecasts in East Africa has great implications for food security and water resources planning in the region. Dynamically based seasonal forecast systems have much to contribute to this effort, as they have demonstrated ability to represent and, to some extent, predict large-scale atmospheric dynamics that drive interannual rainfall variability in East Africa. However, these global models often exhibit spatial biases in their placement of rainfall and rainfall anomalies within the region, which limits their direct applicability to forecast-based decision-making. This paper introduces a method that uses objective climate regionalization to improve the utility of dynamically based forecast-system predictions for East Africa. By breaking up the study area into regions that are homogenous in interannual precipitation variability, it is shown that models sometimes capture drivers of variability but misplace precipitation anomalies. These errors are evident in the pattern of homogenous regions in forecast systems relative to observation, indicating that forecasts can more meaningfully be applied at the scale of the analogous homogeneous climate region than as a direct forecast of the local grid cell. This regionalization approach was tested during the July–September (JAS) rain months, and results show an improvement in the predictions from version 4.5 of the Max Plank Institute for Meteorology’s atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (ECHAM4.5) for applicable areas of East Africa for the two test cases presented.

scholarly journals Lagrangian Drifter Dispersion in the Southwestern Atlantic Ocean

2011 ◽  
Vol 41 (9) ◽  
pp. 1659-1672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Berti ◽  
Francisco Alves Dos Santos ◽  
Guglielmo Lacorata ◽  
Angelo Vulpiani
Keyword(s):  
Atlantic Ocean ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Time Lag ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Atlantic ◽  
Relative Dispersion ◽  
Mean Square ◽  
The South ◽  
Southwestern Atlantic Ocean ◽  
Wide Range

Abstract In the framework of Monitoring by Ocean Drifters (MONDO) project, a set of Lagrangian drifters were released in proximity of the Brazil Current, the western branch of the subtropical gyre in the South Atlantic Ocean. The experimental strategy of deploying part of the buoys in clusters offers the opportunity to examine relative dispersion on a wide range of scales. Adopting a dynamical systems approach, the authors focus their attention on scale-dependent indicators, like the finite-scale Lyapunov exponent (FSLE) and the finite-scale (mean square) relative velocity (FSRV) between two drifters as a function of their separation and compare them with classic time-dependent statistical quantities like the mean-square relative displacement between two drifters and the effective diffusivity as functions of the time lag from the release. The authors find that, dependently on the given observable, the quasigeostrophic turbulence scenario is overall compatible with their data analysis, with discrepancies from the expected behavior of 2D turbulent trajectories likely to be ascribed to the nonstationary and nonhomogeneous characteristics of the flow, as well as to possible ageostrophic effects. Submesoscale features of ~O(1) km are considered to play a role, to some extent, in determining the properties of relative dispersion as well as the shape of the energy spectrum. The authors also present numerical simulations of an ocean general circulation model (OGCM) of the South Atlantic and discuss the comparison between experimental and model data about mesoscale dispersion.

scholarly journals The Role of Air-Sea Coupling on November-April Intraseasonal Rainfall Variability Over the South Pacific

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunil Kumar Pariyar ◽  
Noel Keenlyside ◽  
Wan-Ling Tseng ◽  
Huang Hsiung Hsu ◽  
Ben-jei Tsuang
Keyword(s):  
General Circulation ◽  
Rainfall Variability ◽  
Phase Relationship ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
South Pacific ◽  
Ocean Model ◽  
The South ◽  
The Impact

Abstract We investigate the impact of resolving air-sea interaction on the simulation of the intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific using the ECHAM5 atmospheric general circulation model coupled with the Snow-Ice-Thermocline (SIT) ocean model. We compare the fully coupled simulation with two uncoupled ECHAM5 simulations, one forced with sea surface temperature (SST) climatology and one forced with daily SST from the coupled model. The intraseasonal rainfall variability over the South Pacific is reduced by 17% in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology and increased by 8% in the uncoupled simulation forced with daily SST, suggesting the role of air-sea coupling and SST variability. The coupled model best simulates the key characteristics of two intraseasonal rainfall modes over the South Pacific with reasonable propagation and correct periodicity. The spatial structure of the two rainfall modes in all three simulations is very similar, suggesting these modes are primarily generated by the dynamics of the atmosphere. The southeastward propagation of rainfall anomalies associated with two leading rainfall modes in the South Pacific depends upon the eastward propagating MJO signals over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific. Air-sea interaction seems crucial for such propagation as both eastward and southeastward propagations are substantially reduced in the uncoupled model forced with SST climatology. The simulation of both eastward and southeastward propagations improved considerably in the uncoupled model forced with daily SST; however, the periodicity differs from the coupled model. Such discrepancy in the periodicity is attributed to the changes in the SST-rainfall relationship with weaker correlations and the nearly in-phase relationship.

scholarly journals Cross-Seasonal Influence of the December–February Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode on March–May Meridional Circulation and Precipitation

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (17) ◽  
pp. 6859-6881 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fei Zheng ◽  
Jianping Li ◽  
Lei Wang ◽  
Fei Xie ◽  
Xiaofeng Li
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Meridional Circulation ◽  
Circulation Model ◽  
Annular Mode ◽  
Southern Hemisphere Annular Mode ◽  
Middle Latitudes ◽  
Mean Meridional Circulation ◽  
Sst Anomalies

Abstract New evidence suggests that interannual variability in zonal-mean meridional circulation and precipitation can be partially attributed to the Southern Hemisphere annular mode (SAM), the dominant mode of climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics. A cross-seasonal correlation exists between the December–February (DJF) SAM and March–May (MAM) zonal-mean meridional circulation and precipitation. This correlation is not confined to the SH: it also extends to the Northern Hemisphere (NH) subtropics. When the preceding DJF SAM is positive, counterclockwise, and clockwise meridional cells, accompanied by less and more precipitation, occur alternately between the SH middle latitudes and NH subtropics in MAM. In particular, less precipitation occurs in the SH middle latitudes, the SH tropics, and the NH subtropics, but more precipitation occurs in the SH subtropics and the NH tropics. A framework is built to explain the cross-seasonal impact of SAM-related SST anomalies. Evidence indicates that the DJF SAM tends to lead to dipolelike SST anomalies in the SH extratropics, which are referred to in this study as the SH ocean dipole (SOD). The DJF SOD can persist until the following MAM when it begins to modulate MAM meridional circulation and large-scale precipitation. Atmospheric general circulation model simulations further verify that MAM meridional circulation between the SH middle latitudes and the northern subtropics responds to the MAM SOD.

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