Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature*

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 932-949 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julie A. Vano ◽  
Tapash Das ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Annual Runoff ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Fractional Change ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Runoff Change

Abstract The Colorado River is the primary water source for much of the rapidly growing southwestern United States. Recent studies have projected reductions in Colorado River flows from less than 10% to almost 50% by midcentury because of climate change—a range that has clouded potential management responses. These differences in projections are attributable to variations in climate model projections but also to differing land surface model (LSM) sensitivities. This second contribution to uncertainty—specifically, variations in LSM runoff change with respect to precipitation (elasticities) and temperature (sensitivities)—are evaluated here through comparisons of multidecadal simulations from five commonly used LSMs (Catchment, Community Land Model, Noah, Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model, and Variable Infiltration Capacity model) all applied over the Colorado River basin at ⅛° latitude by longitude spatial resolution. The annual elasticity of modeled runoff (fractional change in annual runoff divided by fractional change in annual precipitation) at Lees Ferry ranges from two to six for the different LSMs. Elasticities generally are higher in lower precipitation and/or runoff regimes; hence, the highest values are for models biased low in runoff production, and the range of elasticities is reduced to two to three when adjusted to current runoff climatology. Annual temperature sensitivities (percent change in annual runoff per degree change in annual temperature) range from declines of 2% to as much as 9% per degree Celsius increase at Lees Ferry. For some LSMs, small areas, primarily at midelevation, have increasing runoff with increasing temperature; however, on a spatial basis, most sensitivities are negative.

scholarly journals Continental Runoff into the Oceans (1950–2008)

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1502-1520 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elizabeth A. Clark ◽  
Justin Sheffield ◽  
Michelle T. H. van Vliet ◽  
Bart Nijssen ◽  
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
Keyword(s):  
South America ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Hydrologic Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Continental Runoff

Abstract A common term in the continental and oceanic components of the global water cycle is freshwater discharge to the oceans. Many estimates of the annual average global discharge have been made over the past 100 yr with a surprisingly wide range. As more observations have become available and continental-scale land surface model simulations of runoff have improved, these past estimates are cast in a somewhat different light. In this paper, a combination of observations from 839 river gauging stations near the outlets of large river basins is used in combination with simulated runoff fields from two implementations of the Variable Infiltration Capacity land surface model to estimate continental runoff into the world’s oceans from 1950 to 2008. The gauges used account for ~58% of continental areas draining to the ocean worldwide, excluding Greenland and Antarctica. This study estimates that flows to the world’s oceans globally are 44 200 (±2660) km3 yr−1 (9% from Africa, 37% from Eurasia, 30% from South America, 16% from North America, and 8% from Australia–Oceania). These estimates are generally higher than previous estimates, with the largest differences in South America and Australia–Oceania. Given that roughly 42% of ocean-draining continental areas are ungauged, it is not surprising that estimates are sensitive to the land surface and hydrologic model (LSM) used, even with a correction applied to adjust for model bias. The results show that more and better in situ streamflow measurements would be most useful in reducing uncertainties, in particular in the southern tip of South America, the islands of Oceania, and central Africa.

Evaluation of Temperature Simulation over Northern Thailand from Regional Climate Model Coupled with Land Surface Model

2017 ◽  
Vol 866 ◽  
pp. 108-111
Author(s):  
Theerapan Saesong ◽  
Pakpoom Ratjiranukool ◽  
Sujittra Ratjiranukool
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Global Analysis ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Northern Thailand ◽  
Weather Model

Numerical Weather Model called The Weather Research and Forecasting model, WRF, developed by National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) is adapted to be regional climate model. The model is run to perform the daily mean air surface temperatures over northern Thailand in 2010. Boundery dataset provided by National Centers for Environmental Prediction, NCEP FNL, (Final) Operational Global Analysis data which are on 10 x 10. The simulated temperatures by WRF with four land surface options, i.e., no land surface scheme (option 0), thermal diffusion (option 1), Noah land-surface (option 2) and RUC land-surface (option 3) were compared against observational data from Thai Meteorological Department (TMD). Preliminary analysis indicated WRF simulations with Noah scheme were able to reproduce the most reliable daily mean temperatures over northern Thailand.

The Common Land Model

2003 ◽  
Vol 84 (8) ◽  
pp. 1013-1024 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yongjiu Dai ◽  
Xubin Zeng ◽  
Robert E. Dickinson ◽  
Ian Baker ◽  
Gordon B. Bonan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Transfer Scheme ◽  
Soil System ◽  
Common Land Model ◽  
The Common ◽  
Academy Of Sciences ◽  
Ice Water

The Common Land Model (CLM) was developed for community use by a grassroots collaboration of scientists who have an interest in making a general land model available for public use and further development. The major model characteristics include enough unevenly spaced layers to adequately represent soil temperature and soil moisture, and a multilayer parameterization of snow processes; an explicit treatment of the mass of liquid water and ice water and their phase change within the snow and soil system; a runoff parameterization following the TOPMODEL concept; a canopy photo synthesis-conductance model that describes the simultaneous transfer of CO2 and water vapor into and out of vegetation; and a tiled treatment of the subgrid fraction of energy and water balance. CLM has been extensively evaluated in offline mode and coupling runs with the NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM3). The results of two offline runs, presented as examples, are compared with observations and with the simulation of three other land models [the Biosphere-Atmosphere Transfer Scheme (BATS), Bonan's Land Surface Model (LSM), and the 1994 version of the Chinese Academy of Sciences Institute of Atmospheric Physics LSM (IAP94)].

scholarly journals Spatio-Temporal Evaluation of Water Storage Trends from Hydrological Models over Australia Using GRACE Mascon Solutions

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 3578
Author(s):  
Xinchun Yang ◽  
Siyuan Tian ◽  
Wei Feng ◽  
Jiangjun Ran ◽  
Wei You ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Water Storage ◽  
Validation Dataset ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Hydrological Models ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Australian Water ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Spatio Temporal

The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data have been extensively used to evaluate the total terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSA) from hydrological models. However, which individual water storage components (i.e., soil moisture storage anomalies (SMSA) or groundwater water storage anomalies (GWSA)) cause the discrepancies in TWSA between GRACE and hydrological models have not been thoroughly investigated or quantified. In this study, we applied GRACE mass concentration block (mascon) solutions to evaluate the spatio-temporal TWSA trends (2003–2014) from seven prevailing hydrological models (i.e., Noah-3.6, Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM-F2.5), Variable Infiltration Capacity macroscale model (VIC-4.1.2), Water—Global Assessment and Prognosis (WaterGAP-2.2d), PCRaster Global Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB-2), Community Land Model (CLM-4.5), and Australian Water Resources Assessment Landscape model (AWRA-L v6)) in Australia and, more importantly, identified which individual water storage components lead to the differences in TWSA trends between GRACE and hydrological models. The results showed that all of the hydrological models employed in this study, except for CLM-4.5 model, underestimated the GRACE-derived TWSA trends. These underestimations can be divided into three categories: (1) ignoring GWSA, e.g., Noah-3.6 and VIC-4.1.2 models; (2) underrating both SMSA and GWSA, e.g., CLSM-F2.5, WaterGAP-2.2d, and PCR-GLOBWB-2 models; (3) deficiently modeling GWSA, e.g., AWRA-L v6 model. In comparison, CLM-4.5 model yielded the best agreement with GRACE but overstated the GRACE-derived TWSA trends due to the overestimation of GWSA. Our results underscore that GRACE mascon solutions can be used as a valuable and efficient validation dataset to evaluate the spatio-temporal performance of hydrological models. Confirming which individual water storage components result in the discrepancies in TWSA between GRACE and hydrological models can better assist in further hydrological model development.

Assessment of the uncertainty related to irrigation modeling by a land surface model across India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dazhi Li ◽  
Xujun Han ◽  
Dhanya C.t. ◽  
Stefan Siebert ◽  
Harry Vereecken ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Monsoon Season ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Spatiotemporal Pattern ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Irrigation Requirement ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Surface Models

<p>Irrigation is very important for maintaining the agricultural production and sustaining the increasing population of India. The irrigation requirement can be estimated with land surface models by modeling water storage changes but the estimates are affected by various uncertainties such as regarding the spatiotemporal distribution of areas where and when irrigation is potentially applied. In the present work, this uncertainty is analyzed for the whole Indian domain. The irrigation requirements and hydrological fluxes over India were reconstructed by multiple simulation experiments with the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5 for the year of 2010.</p><p>These multiple simulation scenarios showed that the modeled irrigation requirement and the land surface fluxes differed between the scenarios, representing the spatiotemporal uncertainty of the irrigation maps. Using a season-specific irrigation map resulted in a higher transpiration-evapotranspiration ratio (T/ET) in the pre-monsoon season compared to the application of a static irrigation map, which implies a higher irrigation efficiency. The remote sensing based evapotranspiration products GLEAM and MODIS ET were used for comparison, showing a similar increasing ET-trend in the pre-monsoon season as the irrigation induced land surface modeling. The correspondence is better if the seasonal irrigation map is used as basis for simulations with CLM. We conclude that more accurate temporal information on irrigation results in modeled evapotranspiration closer to the spatiotemporal pattern of evapotranspiration deduced from remote sensing. Another conclusion is that irrigation modeling should consider the sub-grid heterogeneity to improve the estimation of soil water deficit and irrigation requirement.</p>

scholarly journals Identification of key parameters controlling demographicallystructured vegetation dynamics in a Land Surface Model [CLM4.5(ED)]

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elias C. Massoud ◽  
Chonggang Xu ◽  
Rosie Fisher ◽  
Ryan Knox ◽  
Anthony Walker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Canopy Structure ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Carbon Stocks ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Growth Strategies ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Vegetation Models ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. Vegetation plays a key role in regulating global carbon cycles and is a key component of the Earth System Models (ESMs) aimed to project Earth's future climates. In the last decade, the vegetation component within ESMs has witnessed great progresses from simple 'big-leaf' approaches to demographically-structured approaches, which has a better representation of plant size, canopy structure, and disturbances. The demographically-structured vegetation models are typically controlled by a large number of parameters, and sensitivity analysis is generally needed to quantify the impact of each parameter on the model outputs for a better understanding of model behaviors. In this study, we use the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Test (FAST) to diagnose the Community Land Model coupled to the Ecosystem Demography Model, or CLM4.5(ED). We investigate the first and second order sensitivities of the model parameters to outputs that represent simulated growth and mortality as well as carbon fluxes and stocks. While the photosynthetic capacity parameter Vc,max25 is found to be important for simulated carbon stocks and fluxes, we also show the importance of carbon storage and allometry parameters, which are shown here to determine vegetation demography and carbon stocks through their impacts on survival and growth strategies. The results of this study highlights the importance of understanding the dynamics of the next generation of demographically-enabled vegetation models within ESMs toward improved model parameterization and model structure for better model fidelity.

scholarly journals Evaluation of Snow Water Equivalent in NARCCAP Simulations, Including Measures of Observational Uncertainty

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (9) ◽  
pp. 2425-2452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rachel R. McCrary ◽  
Seth McGinnis ◽  
Linda O. Mearns
Keyword(s):  
Land Surface ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Dominant Role ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Observational Uncertainty ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Noah Land Surface Model

Abstract This study evaluates snow water equivalent (SWE) over North America in the reanalysis-driven NARCCAP regional climate model (RCM) experiments. Examination of SWE in these runs allows for the identification of bias due to RCM configuration, separate from inherited GCM bias. SWE from the models is compared to SWE from a new ensemble observational product to evaluate the RCMs’ ability to capture the magnitude, spatial distribution, duration, and timing of the snow season. This new dataset includes data from 14 different sources in five different types. Consideration of the associated uncertainty in observed SWE strongly influences the appearance of bias in RCM-generated SWE. Of the six NARCCAP RCMs, the version of MM5 run by Iowa State University (MM5I) is found to best represent SWE despite its use of the Noah land surface model. CRCM overestimates SWE because of cold temperature biases and surface temperature parameterization options, while RegCM3 (RCM3) does so because of excessive precipitation. HadRM3 (HRM3) underestimates SWE because of warm temperature biases, while in the version of WRF using the Grell scheme (WRFG) and ECPC-RSM (ECP2), the misrepresentation of snow in the Noah land surface model plays the dominant role in SWE bias, particularly in ECP2 where sublimation is too high.

scholarly journals Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 398
Author(s):  
Kyla M. Dahlin ◽  
Donald Akanga ◽  
Danica L. Lombardozzi ◽  
David E. Reed ◽  
Gabriela Shirkey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Stress Responses ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Plant Stress ◽  
Land Surface Model ◽  
Grid Cell ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Area Index ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Natural Grasslands

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

scholarly journals Comparing Evapotranspiration from Eddy Covariance Measurements, Water Budgets, Remote Sensing, and Land Surface Models over Canadaa,b

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 1540-1560 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shusen Wang ◽  
Ming Pan ◽  
Qiaozhen Mu ◽  
Xiaoying Shi ◽  
Jiafu Mao ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Remote Sensing ◽  
Eddy Covariance ◽  
Land Surface ◽  
Water Budget ◽  
Hybrid Approach ◽  
Surface Model ◽  
Infiltration Capacity ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Spatial Coverage

Abstract This study compares six evapotranspiration ET products for Canada’s landmass, namely, eddy covariance EC measurements; surface water budget ET; remote sensing ET from MODIS; and land surface model (LSM) ET from the Community Land Model (CLM), the Ecological Assimilation of Land and Climate Observations (EALCO) model, and the Variable Infiltration Capacity model (VIC). The ET climatology over the Canadian landmass is characterized and the advantages and limitations of the datasets are discussed. The EC measurements have limited spatial coverage, making it difficult for model validations at the national scale. Water budget ET has the largest uncertainty because of data quality issues with precipitation in mountainous regions and in the north. MODIS ET shows relatively large uncertainty in cold seasons and sparsely vegetated regions. The LSM products cover the entire landmass and exhibit small differences in ET among them. Annual ET from the LSMs ranges from small negative values to over 600 mm across the landmass, with a countrywide average of 256 ± 15 mm. Seasonally, the countrywide average monthly ET varies from a low of about 3 mm in four winter months (November–February) to 67 ± 7 mm in July. The ET uncertainty is scale dependent. Larger regions tend to have smaller uncertainties because of the offset of positive and negative biases within the region. More observation networks and better quality controls are critical to improving ET estimates. Future techniques should also consider a hybrid approach that integrates strengths of the various ET products to help reduce uncertainties in ET estimation.

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