scholarly journals Probabilistic Forecasts of Snow Water Equivalent and Runoff in Mountainous Areas*

2015 ◽  
Vol 16 (5) ◽  
pp. 2169-2186 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefanie Jörg-Hess ◽  
Nena Griessinger ◽  
Massimiliano Zappa
Keyword(s):  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Similarity Score ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Regional Patterns ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Runoff Volume ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Snow Water

Abstract Good initial states can improve the skill of hydrological ensemble predictions. In mountainous regions such as Switzerland, snow is an important component of the hydrological system. Including estimates of snow cover in hydrological models is of great significance for the prediction of both flood and streamflow drought events. In this study, gridded snow water equivalent (SWE) maps, derived from daily snow depth measurements, are used within the gridded version of the conceptual hydrological model Precipitation Runoff Evapotranspiration Hydrotope (PREVAH) to replace the model SWE at initialization. The ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System (ENS) reforecast is used as meteorological input for 32-day forecasts of streamflow and SWE. Experiments were performed in several parts of the Alpine Rhine and the Thur River. Predictions where modeled SWE estimates were replaced with SWE maps could successfully enhance the predictability of SWE up to a lead time of 25 days, especially at the beginning and the end of the snow season. Additionally, the prediction of the runoff volume was improved, particularly in catchments where the snow accumulation, and thus the runoff volume, had been greatly overestimated. These improvements in predictions have been made without affecting the ability of the forecast system to discriminate between the different runoff volumes observed. A spatial similarity score was first used in the context of SWE forecast verification. This confirmed the findings of the time series analysis and yielded additional insight on regional patterns of extended range SWE predictability.

scholarly journals Changes in the snow water equivalent in mountainous basins in Slovakia over recent decades

2015 ◽  
Vol 370 ◽  
pp. 109-116
Author(s):  
K. Hlavčová ◽  
K. Kotríková ◽  
S. Kohnová ◽  
P. Valent
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Winter Season ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Rainfall Runoff ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Ipcc Report ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Rainfall Runoff Model ◽  
Runoff Model

Abstract. Changes in snowpack and duration of snow cover can cause changes in the regime of snow and rain-snow induced floods. The recent IPCC report suggests that, in snow-dominated regions such as the Alps, the Carpathian Mountains and the northern parts of Europe, spring snowmelt floods may occur earlier in a future climate because of warmer winters, and flood hazards may increase during wetter and warmer winters, with more frequent rain and less frequent snowfall. The monitoring and modelling of snow accumulation and snow melting in mountainous catchments is rather complicated, especially due to the high spatial variability of snow characteristics and the limited availability of terrestrial hydrological data. An evaluation of changes in the snow water equivalent (SWE) during the period of 1961–2010 in the Upper Hron river basin, which is representative of the mountainous regions in Central Slovakia, is provided in this paper. An analysis of the snow cover was performed using simulated values of the snow water equivalent by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model. Due to the poor availability of the measured snow water equivalent data, the analysis was performed using its simulated values. Modelling of the SWE was performed in different altitude zones by a conceptual semi-distributed hydrological rainfall-runoff model. The evaluation of the results over the past five decades indicates a decrease in the simulated snow water equivalent and the snow duration in each altitude zone and in all months of the winter season. Significant decreasing trends were found for December, January and February, especially in the highest altitude zone.

scholarly journals Mesoscale Variability of the Upper Colorado River Snowpack

1996 ◽  
Vol 27 (5) ◽  
pp. 313-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chi-Hai Ling ◽  
Edward G. Josberger ◽  
A.S. Thorndike
Keyword(s):  
River Basin ◽  
Colorado River ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Statistical Technique ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Colorado River Basin ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Upper Colorado River Basin ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Colorado Rocky Mountains

In the mountainous regions of the Upper Colorado River Basin, snow course observations give local measurements of snow water equivalent, which can be used to estimate regional averages of snow conditions. We develop a statistical technique to estimate the mesoscale average snow accumulation, using 8 years of snow course observations. For each of three major snow accumulation regions in the Upper Colorado River Basin – the Colorado Rocky Mountains, Colorado, the Uinta Mountains, Utah, and the Wind River Range, Wyoming – the snow course observations yield a correlation length scale of 38 km, 46 km, and 116 km respectively. This is the scale for which the snow course data at different sites are correlated with 70 per cent correlation. This correlation of snow accumulation over large distances allows for the estimation of the snow water equivalent on a mesoscale basis. With the snow course data binned into 1/4° latitude by 1/4° longitude pixels, an error analysis shows the following: for no snow course data in a given pixel, the uncertainty in the water equivalent estimate reaches 50 cm; that is, the climatological variability. However, as the number of snow courses in a pixel increases the uncertainty decreases, and approaches 5-10 cm when there are five snow courses in a pixel.

scholarly journals Seasonal Estimates and Uncertainties of Snow Accumulation from CloudSat Precipitation Retrievals

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 363
Author(s):  
George Duffy ◽  
Fraser King ◽  
Ralf Bennartz ◽  
Christopher G. Fletcher
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Time Periods ◽  
Predicted Values ◽  
Good Agreement

CloudSat is often the only measurement of snowfall rate available at high latitudes, making it a valuable tool for understanding snow climatology. The capability of CloudSat to provide information on seasonal and subseasonal time scales, however, has yet to be explored. In this study, we use subsampled reanalysis estimates to predict the uncertainties of CloudSat snow water equivalent (SWE) accumulation measurements at various space and time resolutions. An idealized/simulated subsampling model predicts that CloudSat may provide seasonal SWE estimates with median percent errors below 50% at spatial scales as small as 2° × 2°. By converting these predictions to percent differences, we can evaluate CloudSat snowfall accumulations against a blend of gridded SWE measurements during frozen time periods. Our predictions are in good agreement with results. The 25th, 50th, and 75th percentiles of the percent differences between the two measurements all match predicted values within eight percentage points. We interpret these results to suggest that CloudSat snowfall estimates are in sufficient agreement with other, thoroughly vetted, gridded SWE products. This implies that CloudSat may provide useful estimates of snow accumulation over remote regions within seasonal time scales.

Case Dependence of Multiscale Interactions between Multisource Perturbations for Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasting during SCMREX

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xubin Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Perturbation Methods ◽  
Monsoon Rainfall ◽  
Southern China ◽  
Ensemble Forecasting ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Synoptic Scale ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Control Member ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Perturbation Energy

AbstractThis study examines the case dependence of the multiscale characteristics of initial condition (IC) and model physics (MO) perturbations and their interactions in a convection-permitting ensemble prediction system (CPEPS), focusing on the 12-h forecasts of precipitation perturbation energy. The case dependence of forecast performances of various ensemble configurations is also examined to gain guidance for CPEPS design. Heavy-rainfall cases over Southern China during the Southern China Monsoon Rainfall Experiment (SCMREX) in May 2014 were discriminated between the strongly and weakly forced events in terms of synoptic-scale forcing, each of which included 10 cases. In the cases with weaker forcing, MO perturbations showed larger influences while the enhancements of convective activities relative to the control member due to IC perturbations were less evident, leading to smaller dispersion reduction due to adding MO perturbations to IC perturbations. Such dispersion reduction was more sensitive to IC and MO perturbation methods in the weakly and strongly forced cases, respectively. The dispersion reduction improved the probabilistic forecasts of precipitation, with more evident improvements in the cases with weaker forcing. To improve the benefits of dispersion reduction in forecasts, it is instructive to elaborately consider the case dependence of dispersion reduction, especially the various sensitivities of dispersion reduction to different-source perturbation methods in various cases, in CPEPS design.

scholarly journals Verification of Ensemble-Based Uncertainty Circles around Tropical Cyclone Track Forecasts

2011 ◽  
Vol 26 (5) ◽  
pp. 664-676 ◽  
Author(s):  
Thierry Dupont ◽  
Matthieu Plu ◽  
Philippe Caroff ◽  
Ghislain Faure
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Large Error ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasting ◽  
Cyclone Track ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Medium Range ◽  
Uncertainty Information

Abstract Several tropical cyclone forecasting centers issue uncertainty information with regard to their official track forecasts, generally using the climatological distribution of position error. However, such methods are not able to convey information that depends on the situation. The purpose of the present study is to assess the skill of the Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) at measuring the uncertainty of up to 3-day track forecasts issued by the Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) La Réunion in the southwestern Indian Ocean. The dispersion of cyclone positions in the EPS is extracted and translated at the RSMC forecast position. The verification relies on existing methods for probabilistic forecasts that are presently adapted to a cyclone-position metric. First, the probability distribution of forecast positions is compared to the climatological distribution using Brier scores. The probabilistic forecasts have better scores than the climatology, particularly after applying a simple calibration scheme. Second, uncertainty circles are built by fixing the probability at 75%. Their skill at detecting small and large error values is assessed. The circles have some skill for large errors up to the 3-day forecast (and maybe after); but the detection of small radii is skillful only up to 2-day forecasts. The applied methodology may be used to assess and to compare the skill of different probabilistic forecasting systems of cyclone position.

scholarly journals Estimating snow water equivalent over long mountain transects using snowmobile-mounted ground-penetrating radar

Geophysics ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 81 (1) ◽  
pp. WA183-WA193 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. Steven Holbrook ◽  
Scott N. Miller ◽  
Matthew A. Provart
Keyword(s):  
Ground Penetrating Radar ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Ground Surface ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Accurate Estimation ◽  
Snow Density ◽  
Snow Stratigraphy ◽  
Flood Estimation ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Ground Penetrating

The water balance in alpine watersheds is dominated by snowmelt, which provides infiltration, recharges aquifers, controls peak runoff, and is responsible for most of the annual water flow downstream. Accurate estimation of snow water equivalent (SWE) is necessary for runoff and flood estimation, but acquiring enough measurements is challenging due to the variability of snow accumulation, ablation, and redistribution at a range of scales in mountainous terrain. We have developed a method for imaging snow stratigraphy and estimating SWE over large distances from a ground-penetrating radar (GPR) system mounted on a snowmobile. We mounted commercial GPR systems (500 and 800 MHz) to the front of the snowmobile to provide maximum mobility and ensure that measurements were taken on pristine snow. Images showed detailed snow stratigraphy down to the ground surface over snow depths up to at least 8 m, enabling the elucidation of snow accumulation and redistribution processes. We estimated snow density (and thus SWE, assuming no liquid water) by measuring radar velocity of the snowpack through migration focusing analysis. Results from the Medicine Bow Mountains of southeast Wyoming showed that estimates of snow density from GPR ([Formula: see text]) were in good agreement with those from coincident snow cores ([Formula: see text]). Using this method, snow thickness, snow density, and SWE can be measured over large areas solely from rapidly acquired common-offset GPR profiles, without the need for common-midpoint acquisition or snow cores.

scholarly journals Initial perturbations based on Ensemble Transfrom Kalman Filter with rescaling method for ensemble forecast

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jingzhuo Wang ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Hanbin Zhang ◽  
Hua Tian ◽  
Yining Shi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Kalman Filter ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Initial Perturbation ◽  
Ensemble Forecast ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Model Uncertainties ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts

AbstractEnsemble forecast is a method to faithfully describe initial and model uncertainties in a weather forecasting system. Initial uncertainties are much more important than model uncertainties in the short-range numerical prediction. Currently, initial uncertainties are described by Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) initial perturbation method in Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction Enhanced System-Regional Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-REPS). However, an initial perturbation distribution similar to the analysis error cannot be yielded in the ETKF method of the GRAPES-REPS. To improve the method, we introduce a regional rescaling factor into the ETKF method (we call it ETKF_R). We also compare the results between the ETKF and ETKF_R methods and further demonstrate how rescaling can affect the initial perturbation characteristics as well as the ensemble forecast skills. The characteristics of the initial ensemble perturbation improve after applying the ETKF_R method. For example, the initial perturbation structures become more reasonable, the perturbations are better able to explain the forecast errors at short lead times, and the lower kinetic energy spectrum as well as perturbation energy at the initial forecast times can lead to a higher growth rate of themselves. Additionally, the ensemble forecast verification results suggest that the ETKF_R method has a better spread-skill relationship, a faster ensemble spread growth rate and a more reasonable rank histogram distribution than ETKF. Furthermore, the rescaling has only a minor impact on the assessment of the sharpness of probabilistic forecasts. The above results all suggest that ETKF_R can be effectively applied to the operational GRAPES-REPS.

scholarly journals Modeling Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Distribution and Variation Characteristics in the Irtysh River Basin, China

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 8365
Author(s):  
Liming Gao ◽  
Lele Zhang ◽  
Yongping Shen ◽  
Yaonan Zhang ◽  
Minghao Ai ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Snow Cover ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Snow Depth ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Implicit Scheme ◽  
Snow Water ◽  
Irtysh River ◽  
Simulation Results ◽  
The Irtysh River

Accurate simulation of snow cover process is of great significance to the study of climate change and the water cycle. In our study, the China Meteorological Forcing Dataset (CMFD) and ERA-Interim were used as driving data to simulate the dynamic changes in snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) in the Irtysh River Basin from 2000 to 2018 using the Noah-MP land surface model, and the simulation results were compared with the gridded dataset of snow depth at Chinese meteorological stations (GDSD), the long-term series of daily snow depth dataset in China (LSD), and China’s daily snow depth and snow water equivalent products (CSS). Before the simulation, we compared the combinations of four parameterizations schemes of Noah-MP model at the Kuwei site. The results show that the rainfall and snowfall (SNF) scheme mainly affects the snow accumulation process, while the surface layer drag coefficient (SFC), snow/soil temperature time (STC), and snow surface albedo (ALB) schemes mainly affect the melting process. The effect of STC on the simulation results was much higher than the other three schemes; when STC uses a fully implicit scheme, the error of simulated snow depth and snow water equivalent is much greater than that of a semi-implicit scheme. At the basin scale, the accuracy of snow depth modeled by using CMFD and ERA-Interim is higher than LSD and CSS snow depth based on microwave remote sensing. In years with high snow cover, LSD and CSS snow depth data are seriously underestimated. According to the results of model simulation, it is concluded that the snow depth and snow water equivalent in the north of the basin are higher than those in the south. The average snow depth, snow water equivalent, snow days, and the start time of snow accumulation (STSA) in the basin did not change significantly during the study period, but the end time of snow melting was significantly advanced.

scholarly journals TOPOFIRE: A Topographically Resolved Wildfire Danger and Drought Monitoring System for the Conterminous United States

2019 ◽  
Vol 100 (9) ◽  
pp. 1607-1613 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary A. Holden ◽  
W. Matt Jolly ◽  
Alan Swanson ◽  
Dyer A. Warren ◽  
Kelsey Jencso ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Snow Water Equivalent ◽  
Wildland Fire ◽  
Early Warning Systems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Snow Accumulation ◽  
Assessment System ◽  
Shortwave Radiation ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Proactive Management

AbstractPatterns of energy and available moisture can vary over small (<1 km) distances in mountainous terrain. Information on fuel and soil moisture conditions that resolves this variation could help to inform fire and drought management decisions. Here, we describe the development of TOPOFIRE, a web-based mapping system designed to provide finely resolved information on soil water balance, drought, and wildfire danger information for the contiguous United States. We developed 8-arc-second-resolution (~250 meter) daily historical, near real-time, and 4-day forecast radiation, temperature, humidity, and snow water equivalent data and used these grids to calculate a suite of drought and wildfire danger indices. Large differences in shortwave radiation and surface air temperature with aspect contribute to greater snow accumulation and delays in melt timing on north-facing slopes, delaying fuel conditioning on shaded slopes. These datasets will help advance our understanding of the role of topography in wildland fire spread and ecological effects. Integration with national programs like the Wildland Fire Assessment System, the Wildland Fire Decision Support System, and drought early warning systems could support more proactive management of wildland fires and refine the characterization of drought in mountainous regions of the United States.

A Unified Scheme of Stochastic Physics and Bias Correction in an Ensemble Model to Reduce Both Random and Systematic Errors

2019 ◽  
Vol 34 (6) ◽  
pp. 1675-1691 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Xia ◽  
Jing Chen ◽  
Jun Du ◽  
Xiefei Zhi ◽  
Jingzhuo Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bias Correction ◽  
Weather Prediction ◽  
Systematic Errors ◽  
Ensemble Prediction ◽  
Ensemble Model ◽  
Prediction System ◽  
Ensemble Prediction System ◽  
Probabilistic Forecasts ◽  
Ensemble Mean ◽  
Stochastic Physics

Abstract This study experimented with a unified scheme of stochastic physics and bias correction within a regional ensemble model [Global and Regional Assimilation and Prediction System–Regional Ensemble Prediction System (GRAPES-REPS)]. It is intended to improve ensemble prediction skill by reducing both random and systematic errors at the same time. Three experiments were performed on top of GRAPES-REPS. The first experiment adds only the stochastic physics. The second experiment adds only the bias correction scheme. The third experiment adds both the stochastic physics and bias correction. The experimental period is one month from 1 to 31 July 2015 over the China domain. Using 850-hPa temperature as an example, the study reveals the following: 1) the stochastic physics can effectively increase the ensemble spread, while the bias correction cannot. Therefore, ensemble averaging of the stochastic physics runs can reduce more random error than the bias correction runs. 2) Bias correction can significantly reduce systematic error, while the stochastic physics cannot. As a result, the bias correction greatly improved the quality of ensemble mean forecasts but the stochastic physics did not. 3) The unified scheme can greatly reduce both random and systematic errors at the same time and performed the best of the three experiments. These results were further confirmed by verification of the ensemble mean, spread, and probabilistic forecasts of many other atmospheric fields for both upper air and the surface, including precipitation. Based on this study, we recommend that operational numerical weather prediction centers adopt this unified scheme approach in ensemble models to achieve the best forecasts.

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