scholarly journals How Frequent is Precipitation over the Contiguous United States? Perspectives from Ground-Based and Spaceborne Radars

2017 ◽  
Vol 18 (6) ◽  
pp. 1657-1672 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Smalley ◽  
Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstetter ◽  
Tristan L’Ecuyer
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Complex Terrain ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Flat Surfaces ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Temporal And Spatial ◽  
Beam Height ◽  
Precipitation Events

Abstract High temporal and spatial resolution observations of precipitation occurrence from the NEXRAD-based Multi-Radar Multi-Sensor (MRMS) system are compared to matched observations from CloudSat for 3 years over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Across the CONUS, precipitation is generally reported more frequently by CloudSat (7.8%) than by MRMS (6.3%), with dependence on factors such as the NEXRAD beam height, the near-surface air temperature, and the surface elevation. There is general agreement between ground-based and satellite-derived precipitation events over flat surfaces, especially in widespread precipitation events and when the NEXRAD beam heights are low. Within 100 km of the nearest NEXRAD site, MRMS reports a precipitation frequency of 7.54% while CloudSat reports 7.38%. However, further inspection reveals offsetting biases between the products, where CloudSat reports more snow and MRMS reports more rain. The magnitudes of these discrepancies correlate with elevation, but they are observed in both the complex terrain of the Rocky Mountains and the relatively flat midwestern areas of the CONUS. The findings advocate for caution when using MRMS frequency and accumulations in complex terrain, when temperatures are below freezing, and at ranges greater than 100 km. A multiresolution analysis shows that no more than 1.88% of CloudSat pixels over flat terrain are incorrectly identified as nonprecipitating as a result of shallow showers residing the CloudSat clutter-filled blind zone when near-surface air temperatures are above 15°C.

scholarly journals An evaluation of the impact of aerosol particles on weather forecasts from a biomass burning aerosol event over the Midwestern United States: observational-based analysis of surface temperature

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (10) ◽  
pp. 6475-6494 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jianglong Zhang ◽  
Jeffrey S. Reid ◽  
Matthew Christensen ◽  
Angela Benedetti
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Cooling Efficiency ◽  
Surface Cooling ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Smoke Aerosol ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Daily Changes

Abstract. A major continental-scale biomass burning smoke event from 28–30 June 2015, spanning central Canada through the eastern seaboard of the United States, resulted in unforecasted drops in daytime high surface temperatures on the order of 2–5  °C in the upper Midwest. This event, with strong smoke gradients and largely cloud-free conditions, provides a natural laboratory to study how aerosol radiative effects may influence numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecast outcomes. Here, we describe the nature of this smoke event and evaluate the differences in observed near-surface air temperatures between Bismarck (clear) and Grand Forks (overcast smoke), to evaluate to what degree solar radiation forcing from a smoke plume introduces daytime surface cooling, and how this affects model bias in forecasts and analyses. For this event, mid-visible (550 nm) smoke aerosol optical thickness (AOT, τ) reached values above 5. A direct surface cooling efficiency of −1.5 °C per unit AOT (at 550 nm, τ550) was found. A further analysis of European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMO) near-surface air temperature forecasts for up to 54 h as a function of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Dark Target AOT data across more than 400 surface stations, also indicated the presence of the daytime aerosol direct cooling effect, but suggested a smaller aerosol direct surface cooling efficiency with magnitude on the order of −0.25 to −1.0 °C per unit τ550. In addition, using observations from the surface stations, uncertainties in near-surface air temperatures from ECMWF, NCEP, and UKMO model runs are estimated. This study further suggests that significant daily changes in τ550 above 1, at which the smoke-aerosol-induced direct surface cooling effect could be comparable in magnitude with model uncertainties, are rare events on a global scale. Thus, incorporating a more realistic smoke aerosol field into numerical models is currently less likely to significantly improve the accuracy of near-surface air temperature forecasts. However, regions such as eastern China, eastern Russia, India, and portions of the Saharan and Taklamakan deserts, where significant daily changes in AOTs are more frequent, are likely to benefit from including an accurate aerosol analysis into numerical weather forecasts.

scholarly journals Changes in Frequency of Precipitation Types Associated with Surface Air Temperature over Northern Eurasia during 1936–90

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (22) ◽  
pp. 5807-5819 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hengchun Ye
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
High Latitude ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Northern Eurasia ◽  
Precipitation Frequency ◽  
Warming Climate ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Threshold Temperatures ◽  
Hydrological Cycles ◽  
Former Ussr

Abstract Potential benefits or disadvantages of increasing precipitation in high-latitude regions under a warming climate are dependent on how and in what form the precipitation occurs. Precipitation frequency and type are equally as important as quantity and intensity to understanding the seasonality of hydrological cycles and the health of the ecosystem in high-latitude regions. This study uses daily historical synoptic observation records during 1936–90 over the former USSR to reveal associations between the frequency of precipitation types (rainfall, snowfall, mixed solid and liquid, and wet days of all types) and surface air temperatures to determine potential changes in precipitation characteristics under a warming climate. Results from this particular study show that the frequency of precipitation of all types generally increases with air temperature during winter. However, both solid and liquid precipitation days predominantly decrease with air temperature during spring with a reduction in snowfall days being most significant. During autumn, snowfall days decrease while rainfall days increase resulting in overall decreases in wet days as air temperature increases. The data also reveal that, as snowfall days increase in relationship to increasing air temperatures, this increase may level out or even decrease as mean surface air temperature exceeds −8°C in winter. In spring and autumn, increasing rainfall days switch to decreasing when the mean surface air temperature goes above 6°C. The conclusion of this study is that changes in the frequency of precipitation types are highly dependent on the location’s air temperature and that threshold temperatures exist beyond which changes in an opposite direction occur.

scholarly journals Polar Amplification and Ice Free Conditions under 1.5, 2 and 3 °C of Global Warming as Simulated by CMIP5 and CMIP6 Models

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 1494
Author(s):  
Fernanda Casagrande ◽  
Francisco A. B. Neto ◽  
Ronald B. de Souza ◽  
Paulo Nobre
Keyword(s):  
Global Warming ◽  
Temperature Response ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Polar Regions ◽  
High Latitudes ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Polar Amplification ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Average Rise

One of the most visible signs of global warming is the fast change in the polar regions. The increase in Arctic temperatures, for instance, is almost twice as large as the global average in recent decades. This phenomenon is known as the Arctic Amplification and reflects several mutually supporting processes. An equivalent albeit less studied phenomenon occurs in Antarctica. Here, we used numerical climate simulations obtained from CMIP5 and CMIP6 to investigate the effects of +1.5, 2 and 3 °C warming thresholds for sea ice changes and polar amplification. Our results show robust patterns of near-surface air-temperature response to global warming at high latitudes. The year in which the average air temperatures brought from CMIP5 and CMIP6 models rises by 1.5 °C is 2024. An average rise of 2 °C (3 °C) global warming occurs in 2042 (2063). The equivalent warming at northern (southern) high latitudes under scenarios of 1.5 °C global warming is about 3 °C (1.8 °C). In scenarios of 3 °C global warming, the equivalent warming in the Arctic (Antarctica) is close to 7 °C (3.5 °C). Ice-free conditions are found in all warming thresholds for both the Arctic and Antarctica, especially from the year 2030 onwards.

scholarly journals Warming of Near-Surface Summer Water Temperatures in Lakes of the Conterminous United States

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (12) ◽  
pp. 3381
Author(s):  
Roger W. Bachmann ◽  
Daniel E. Canfield ◽  
Sapna Sharma ◽  
Vincent Lecours
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Regression Models ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Rates Of Change ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Summer Warming ◽  
Multiple Regression Models ◽  
Maximum Temperatures ◽  
Using Data

Because warming water temperatures have widespread consequences for freshwater communities, we were interested in estimating the patterns and rates of change of near-surface summer water temperatures in United States lakes. We developed multiple regression models to relate daily surface water temperatures in lakes of the conterminous United States to 8-day average air temperatures, latitude, elevation, and sampling month and year using data from 5723 lake samples in the months of June-September during the period 1981–2018. Our model explained 79% of the variation with a root-mean-square error of 1.69 °C. We predicted monthly average near-surface water temperatures for 1033 lakes for each year from 1981 through 2018. Lakes across the conterminous United States have been warming for the period 1981–2018 at an average heating rate of 0.32 °C per decade for the summer months (June–September). The average summer warming from 1981–2018 would be the equivalent of a lake decreasing 259 m in elevation or moving 233 km south. On the basis of national air temperatures starting in 1895, it was inferred that lake water temperatures are variable from year to year and have been steadily increasing since 1964, but that maximum temperatures in the 1930s were just as warm as those in 2008–2018.

scholarly journals Suitability of a constant air temperature lapse rate over an Alpine glacier: testing the Greuell and Böhm model as an alternative

2013 ◽  
Vol 54 (63) ◽  
pp. 120-130 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lene Petersen ◽  
Francesca Pellicciotti ◽  
Inge Juszak ◽  
Marco Carenzo ◽  
Ben Brock
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Ambient Air ◽  
Lapse Rate ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Variability ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Alpine Glacier ◽  
Temperature Lapse Rate ◽  
Boundary Layer Height ◽  
Air Temperatures

AbstractNear-surface air temperature, typically measured at a height of 2 m, is the most important control on the energy exchange and the melt rate at a snow or ice surface. It is distributed in a simplistic manner in most glacier melt models by using constant linear lapse rates, which poorly represent the actual spatial and temporal variability of air temperature. In this paper, we test a simple thermodynamic model proposed by Greuell and Böhm in 1998 as an alternative, using a new dataset of air temperature measurements from along the flowline of Haut Glacier d’Arolla, Switzerland. The unmodified model performs little better than assuming a constant linear lapse rate. When modified to allow the ratio of the boundary layer height to the bulk heat transfer coefficient to vary along the flowline, the model matches measured air temperatures better, and a further reduction of the root-mean-square error is obtained, although there is still considerable scope for improvement. The modified model is shown to perform best under conditions favourable to the development of katabatic winds – few clouds, positive ambient air temperature, limited influence of synoptic or valley winds and a long fetch – but its performance is poor under cloudy conditions.

scholarly journals The Distribution and Prediction of Summer Near-Surface Water Temperatures in Lakes of the Coterminous United States and Southern Canada

Geosciences ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (7) ◽  
pp. 296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger W. Bachmann ◽  
Sapna Sharma ◽  
Daniel E. Canfield ◽  
Vincent Lecours
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Standard Deviation ◽  
Surface Water ◽  
Empirical Model ◽  
Predictive Models ◽  
The United States ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Multiple Regressions ◽  
Air Temperatures

The goals of the study were: (i) To describe the distribution of summer near-surface water temperatures in lakes of the coterminous United States and southern Canada (ii) to determine the geographic, meteorological and limnological factors related to summer water temperatures and (iii) to develop and test predictive models for summer near-surface water temperatures. We used data from the United States National Lakes Assessments of 2007 and 2012 as well as data collected from several different studies of Canadian lakes. Using multiple regressions, we quantified the general observations that summer water temperatures decreased when going from south to north, from east to west, and from lower elevations to higher elevations. Our empirical model using 8-day average air temperatures, latitude, longitude, elevations and month was able to predict water temperatures in individual lakes on individual summer days with a standard deviation of 1.7 °C for United States lakes and 2.3 °C for lakes in the southern regions of Canada.

scholarly journals Infrared Interferometric Measurements of the Near-Surface Air Temperature over the Oceans

2005 ◽  
Vol 22 (7) ◽  
pp. 1019-1032 ◽  
Author(s):  
P. J. Minnett ◽  
K. A. Maillet ◽  
J. A. Hanafin ◽  
B. J. Osborne
Keyword(s):  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Heat Island ◽  
Radiometric Measurement ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Air Temperatures ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Marine Air ◽  
The Tropical Pacific

Abstract The radiometric measurement of the marine air temperature using a Fourier transform infrared spectroradiometer is described. The measurements are taken by the Marine-Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (M-AERI) that has been deployed on many research ships in a wide range of conditions. This approach is inherently more accurate than conventional techniques and can be used to determine some of the error characteristics of the standard measurements. Examples are given from several cruises ranging from the Arctic to the equatorial Pacific Oceans. It is shown that the diurnal heating signal in radiometric air temperatures in the tropical Pacific can typically reach an amplitude of ∼15% of that measured by conventional sensors. Conventional data have long been recognized as being contaminated by direct solar heating and heat island effects of the ships or buoys on which they are mounted, but here this effect is quantified by comparisons with radiometric measurements.

scholarly journals A New Model to Downscale Urban and Rural Surface and Air Temperatures Evaluated in Shanghai, China

2018 ◽  
Vol 57 (10) ◽  
pp. 2267-2283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dongwei Liu ◽  
C. S. B. Grimmond ◽  
Jianguo Tan ◽  
Xiangyu Ao ◽  
Jie Peng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Land Cover ◽  
Surface Temperature ◽  
Spatial Resolution ◽  
Air Temperature ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Wave Radiation ◽  
Climate Services ◽  
Near Surface ◽  
Surface Temperatures ◽  
Air Temperatures

AbstractA simple model, the Surface Temperature and Near-Surface Air Temperature (at 2 m) Model (TsT2m), is developed to downscale numerical model output (such as from ECMWF) to obtain higher-temporal- and higher-spatial-resolution surface and near-surface air temperature. It is evaluated in Shanghai, China. Surface temperature (Ts) and near-surface air temperature (Ta) submodels account for variations in land cover and their different thermal properties, resulting in spatial variations of surface and air temperature. The net all-wave radiation parameterization (NARP) scheme is used to compute net wave radiation for the surface temperature submodel, the objective hysteresis model (OHM) is used to calculate the net storage heat fluxes, and the surface temperature is obtained by the force-restore method. The near-surface air temperature submodel considers the horizontal and vertical energy changes for a column of well-mixed air above the surface. Modeled surface temperatures reproduce the general pattern of MODIS images well, while providing more detailed patterns of the surface urban heat island. However, the simulated surface temperatures capture the warmer urban land cover and are 10.3°C warmer on average than those derived from the coarser MODIS data. For other land-cover types, values are more similar. Downscaled, higher-temporal- and higher-spatial-resolution air temperatures are compared to observations at 110 automatic weather stations across Shanghai. After downscaling with TsT2m, the average forecast accuracy of near-surface air temperature is improved by about 20%. The scheme developed has considerable potential for prediction and mitigation of urban climate conditions, particularly for weather and climate services related to heat stress.

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