scholarly journals Uncertainties in Estimating Moisture Fluxes over the Intra-Americas Sea

2005 ◽  
Vol 6 (5) ◽  
pp. 696-709 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alberto M. Mestas-Nuñez ◽  
Chidong Zhang ◽  
David B. Enfield
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Regional Analysis ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Accurate Estimate ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Vapor Source ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
Mathematical Algorithms ◽  
Global Reanalysis ◽  
Moisture Flux Divergence

Abstract This study estimates discrepancies in moisture flux divergence in the Intra-Americas Sea (IAS; including the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean Sea) calculated using sounding observations, the NCEP Eta high-resolution regional analysis, and the NCEP–NCAR coarse-resolution global reanalysis. The main purpose of this exercise is to quantify the uncertainties in the global reanalysis when it is used to calculate annual and interannual variability of moisture flux divergence in the region. An accurate estimate of moisture flux divergence is crucial to evaluate whether the IAS serves as a water vapor source for rainfall over the adjacent land. Using the three datasets, the uncertainties of calculated moisture flux divergence due to the design of the boundary of the area, mathematical algorithms, and spatial and temporal resolutions are quantified. The results show that the large seasonal and interannual variability in moisture flux divergence estimated using the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis is not compromised by these uncertainties. Therefore, NCEP–NCAR reanalysis, with its global coverage and long-term record, can be used to provide the best estimate of short climate variability of moisture flux divergence available to date. Further comparisons are made of the moisture flux divergence based on the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis with previous estimates using single-year sounding observations, as well as with multiyear estimates based on global datasets of surface evaporation and precipitation. It is shown that the previous estimates using single-year sounding observations bear large uncertainties because of interannual variability. Large uncertainties also exist in datasets of surface global evaporation and precipitation.

scholarly journals The Atmospheric Water Balance over the Semiarid Murray–Darling River Basin

2008 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 521-534 ◽  
Author(s):  
Clara Draper ◽  
Graham Mills
Keyword(s):  
Surface Water ◽  
Water Balance ◽  
River Basin ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Limited Area ◽  
Consecutive Series ◽  
Atmospheric Water ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Murray Darling Basin ◽  
Moisture Flux Divergence

Abstract The atmospheric water balance over the semiarid Murray–Darling River basin in southeast Australia is analyzed based on a consecutive series of 3- to 24-h NWP forecasts from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s Limited Area Prediction System (LAPS). Investigation of the LAPS atmospheric water balance, including comparison of the forecast precipitation to analyzed rain gauge observations, indicates that the LAPS forecasts capture the general qualitative features of the water balance. The key features of the atmospheric water balance over the Murray–Darling Basin are small atmospheric moisture flux divergence (at daily to annual time scales) and extended periods during which the atmospheric water balance terms are largely inactive, with the exception of evaporation, which is consistent and very large in summer. These features present unique challenges for NWP modeling. For example, the small moisture fluxes in the basin can easily be obscured by the systematic errors inherent in all NWP models. For the LAPS model forecasts, there is an unrealistically large evaporation excess over precipitation (associated with a positive bias in evaporation) and unexpected behavior in the moisture flux divergence. Two global reanalysis products (the NCEP Reanalysis I and the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis) also both describe (physically unrealistic) long-term negative surface water budgets over the Murray–Darling Basin, suggesting that the surface water budget cannot be sensibly diagnosed based on output from current NWP models. Despite this shortcoming, numerical models are in general the most appropriate tool for examining the atmospheric water balance over the Murray–Darling Basin, as the atmospheric sounding network in Australia has extremely low coverage.

scholarly journals Evaluating Observation Influence on Regional Water Budgets in Reanalyses

2015 ◽  
Vol 28 (9) ◽  
pp. 3631-3649 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael G. Bosilovich ◽  
Jiun-Dar Chern ◽  
David Mocko ◽  
Franklin R. Robertson ◽  
Arlindo M. da Silva
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Physical Processes ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Water Budgets ◽  
Central United States ◽  
Anomalous Feature ◽  
Closed Water ◽  
Regional Water ◽  
Moisture Flux Divergence

Abstract The assimilation of observations in reanalyses incurs the potential for the physical terms of budgets to be balanced by a term relating the fit of the observations relative to a forecast first guess analysis. This may indicate a limitation in the physical processes of the background model or perhaps assimilating data from an inconsistent observing system. In the MERRA reanalysis, an area of long-term moisture flux divergence over land has been identified over the central United States. Here, the water vapor budget is evaluated in this region, taking advantage of two unique features of the MERRA diagnostic output: 1) a closed water budget that includes the analysis increment and 2) a gridded diagnostic output dataset of the assimilated observations and their innovations (e.g., forecast departures). In the central United States, an anomaly occurs where the analysis adds water to the region, while precipitation decreases and moisture flux divergence increases. This is related more to a change in the observing system than to a deficiency in the model physical processes. MERRA’s Gridded Innovations and Observations (GIO) data narrow the observations that influence this feature to the ATOVS and Aqua satellites during the 0600 and 1800 UTC analysis cycles, when radiosonde information is not prevalent. Observing system experiments further narrow the instruments that affect the anomalous feature to AMSU-A (mainly window channels) and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). This effort also shows the complexities of the observing system and the reactions of the regional water budgets in reanalyses to the assimilated observations.

Ten Years of Measurements of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Water Vapor by MOZAIC. Part II: Assessing the ECMWF Humidity Analysis

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (7) ◽  
pp. 1449-1466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zhengzhao Luo ◽  
Dieter Kley ◽  
Richard H. Johnson ◽  
Herman Smit
Keyword(s):  
Water Vapor ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Deep Convection ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Enso Event ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Asian Monsoon Region ◽  
Dry Bias ◽  
Moisture Flux Divergence

Abstract In a recent publication (Part I), the authors introduced a data source—Measurement of Ozone and Water Vapor by Airbus In-Service Aircraft (MOZAIC)—for monitoring and studying upper-tropospheric water vapor (UTWV) and analyzed 10 yr (1994–2004) of MOZAIC measurements of tropical UTWV in its climatology, variability, transport, and relation to deep convection. In this study (Part II), MOZAIC is used to assess the ECMWF humidity analysis over the tropics, taking advantage of the unique nature of the MOZAIC data, namely, the long data record, near-global coverage, and high accuracy. In parallel to Part I, the ECMWF UTWV analysis is assessed against MOZAIC in the following five aspects: 1) annual cycle, 2) vertical structure, 3) probability density functions (PDFs), 4) moisture flux divergence, and 5) interannual variability. The annual cycle of the ECMWF UTWV shows a similar pattern as MOZAIC but has an overall dry bias of about 10%–30% relative humidity with respect to ice (RHi). The dry biases are larger in the deep tropics than the subtropics and larger over the Asian monsoon region than the tropical Atlantic region. The increase in RH with height (from about 300 to 200 hPa) as observed by MOZAIC is largely missing in the ECMWF analysis, which has a roughly constant RH profile. The bimodal distribution of tropical UTWV is well established in MOZAIC, but for ECMWF, the moist mode is abruptly cut off at 100% RHi due to the lack of ice supersaturation (ISS) in the forecast model. Lack of ISS capability is, however, not the only cause for the dry bias in the ECMWF; it also has more occurrences of lower humidity compared to MOZAIC. There is also evidence that ECMWF underestimates the range of upper-tropospheric humidity (UTH) variation. A comparison of moisture flux divergence is conducted to assess the ability of ECMWF to capture the divergent transport of water vapor. It is shown that the ECMWF can represent the distribution of this quantity fairly well, although the dry bias leads to some underestimate of the magnitude. Finally, the authors show a comparison of the ECMWF and MOZAIC depictions of the interannual variation of UTWV during the 1997/98 ENSO event as an illustration that UTWV variations are more difficult to capture than those of the UT temperature.

Hawaiian Regional Climate Variability during Two Types of El Niño

2020 ◽  
Vol 33 (22) ◽  
pp. 9929-9943
Author(s):  
Bo-Yi Lu ◽  
Pao-Shin Chu ◽  
Sung-Hun Kim ◽  
Christina Karamperidou
Keyword(s):  
El Niño ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
El Nino ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Jet Stream ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
The North ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The North Pacific ◽  
Moisture Flux Divergence

AbstractThe large-scale atmospheric circulation of the North Pacific associated with two types of El Niño—the eastern Pacific (EP) and central Pacific (CP)—is studied in relation to Hawaiian winter (December–February) rainfall and temperature. The eastern and central equatorial Pacific undergo active convective heating during EP El Niño winters. The local Hadley circulation is enhanced and an upper-level westerly jet stream of the North Pacific is elongated eastward. Due to the impact of both phenomena, stronger anomalous descending motion, moisture flux divergence anomalies near Hawaii, and reduction of easterly trade winds, which are characteristic of EP winters, are unfavorable for winter rainfall in Hawaii. As a result of this robust signal, dry conditions prevail in Hawaii and the standard deviation of rainfall during EP winters is smaller than the climatology. For CP winters, the maximum equatorial ocean warming is weaker and shifted westward to near the date line. The subtropical jet stream retreats westward relative to EP winters and the anomalously sinking motion near Hawaii is variable and generally weaker. Although the anomalous moisture flux divergence still exists over the subtropical North Pacific, its magnitude is weaker relative to EP winters. Without strong external forcing, rainfall in the Hawaiian Islands during CP winters is close to the long-term mean. The spread of rainfall from one CP event to another is also larger. The near-surface minimum temperature from three stations in Hawaii reveals cooling during EP winters and slight warming during CP winters.

A Methodology for the Regional-Scale-Decomposed Atmospheric Water Budget: Application to a Simulation of the Canadian Regional Climate Model Nested by NCEP–NCAR Reanalyses over North America

2006 ◽  
Vol 134 (3) ◽  
pp. 854-873 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soline Bielli ◽  
René Laprise
Keyword(s):  
Regional Climate Model ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Added Value ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Moisture Flux Divergence

Abstract The purpose of this work is to study the added value of a regional climate model with respect to the global analyses used to drive the regional simulation, with a special emphasis on the nonlinear interactions between different spatial scales, focusing on the moisture flux divergence. The atmospheric water budget is used to apply the spatial-scale decomposition approach, as it is a key factor in the energetics of the climate. A Fourier analysis is performed individually for each field on pressure levels. Each field involved in the computation of moisture flux divergence is separated into three components that represent selected scale bands, using the discrete cosine transform. The divergence of the moisture flux is computed from the filtered fields. Instantaneous and monthly mean fields from a simulation performed with the Canadian Regional Climate Model are decomposed and allowed to separate the added value of the model to the total fields. Results show that the added value resides in the nonlinear interactions between large (greater than 1000 km) and small (smaller than 600 km) scales. The main small-scale forcing of the wind is topographic, whereas the humidity tends to show more small scales over the ocean. The time-mean divergence of moisture flux is also decomposed into contributions from stationary eddies and transient eddies. Both stationary and transient eddies are decomposed into different spatial scales and show very different patterns. The time-mean divergence due to transient eddies is dominated by large-scale (synoptic scale) features with little small scales. The divergence due to stationary eddies is a combination of small- and large-scale terms, and the main small-scale contribution occurs over the topography. The same decomposition has been applied to the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses used to drive the regional simulation; the results show that the model best reproduces the time-fluctuation component of the moisture flux divergence, with a correlation between the model simulation and the NCEP–NCAR reanalyses above 0.90.

scholarly journals Simulations of the 2005, 1910, and 1876 Vb cyclones over the Alps – sensitivity to model physics and cyclonic moisture flux

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
pp. 35-57
Author(s):  
Peter Stucki ◽  
Paul Froidevaux ◽  
Marcelo Zamuriano ◽  
Francesco Alessandro Isotta ◽  
Martina Messmer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Downscaling ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Heavy Precipitation ◽  
Northern Switzerland ◽  
Weather Model ◽  
Model Configuration ◽  
Simulated Precipitation ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
The Alps ◽  
Global Reanalysis

Abstract. In June 1876, June 1910, and August 2005, northern Switzerland was severely impacted by heavy precipitation and extreme floods. Although occurring in different centuries, all three events featured very similar precipitation patterns and an extratropical storm following a cyclonic, so-called Vb (five b of the van Bebber trajectories) trajectory around the Alps. Going back in time from the recent to the historical cases, we explore the potential of dynamical downscaling of a global reanalysis product from a grid size of 220 to 3 km. We investigate sensitivities of the simulated precipitation amounts to a set of differing configurations in the regional weather model. The best-performing model configuration in the evaluation, featuring a 1 d initialization period, is then applied to assess the sensitivity of simulated precipitation totals to cyclonic moisture flux along the downscaling steps. The analyses show that cyclone fields (closed pressure contours) and tracks (minimum pressure trajectories) are well defined in the reanalysis ensemble for the 2005 and 1910 cases, while deviations from the ensemble mean increase for the 1876 case. In the downscaled ensemble, the accuracy of simulated precipitation totals is closely linked to the exact trajectory and stalling position of the cyclone, with slight shifts producing erroneous precipitation, e.g., due to a break-up of the vortex if simulated too close to the Alpine topography. Simulated precipitation totals only reach the observed ones if the simulation includes continuous moisture fluxes of >200 kg m−1 s−1 from northerly directions and high contributions of (embedded) convection. Misplacement of the vortex and concurrent uncertainties in simulating convection, in particular for the 1876 case, point to limitations of downscaling from coarse input for such complex weather situations and for the more distant past. On the upside, single (contrasting) members of the historical cases are well capable of illustrating variants of Vb cyclone dynamics and features along the downscaling steps.

scholarly journals Relation Between the Interannual Variability in the Stratospheric Rossby Wave Forcing and Zonal Mean Fields Suggesting an Interhemispheric Link in the Stratosphere

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuki Matsushita ◽  
Daiki Kado ◽  
Masashi Kohma ◽  
Kaoru Sato
Keyword(s):  
Interannual Variability ◽  
Rossby Wave ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Wave Forcing ◽  
Mean Fields ◽  
Meridional Cross Section ◽  
The Cross ◽  
Modern Era

Abstract. Focusing on the interannual variabilities in the zonal mean fields and Rossby wave forcing in austral winter, an interhemispheric coupling in the stratosphere is examined using reanalysis data: the Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2). In the present study, the Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence averaged over the latitude and height regions of 50°–30° S and 0.3–1 hPa, respectively, are used as a proxy of the Rossby wave forcing, where the absolute value of the EP flux divergence is maximized in the winter in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The interannual variabilities in the zonal mean temperature and zonal wind are significantly correlated with the SH Rossby wave forcing in the stratosphere in both the SH and Northern Hemisphere (NH). The interannual variability in the strength of the poleward residual mean flow in the SH stratosphere is also correlated with the strength of the wave forcing. This correlation is significant even around the equator at an altitude of 40 km and at NH low latitudes of 20–40 km. The temperature anomaly is consistent with this residual mean flow anomaly. The relationship between the cross-equatorial flow and the zonal mean absolute angular momentum gradient (My) is examined in the meridional cross section. The My around the equator at the altitude of 40 km is small when the wave forcing is strong, which provides a pathway for the cross-equatorial residual mean flow. These results indicate that an interhemispheric coupling is present in the stratosphere through the meridional circulation modulated by the Rossby wave forcing.

scholarly journals Coupling of Precipitation and Cloud Structures in Oceanic Extratropical Cyclones to Large-Scale Moisture Flux Convergence

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (23) ◽  
pp. 9565-9584 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sun Wong ◽  
Catherine M. Naud ◽  
Brian H. Kahn ◽  
Longtao Wu ◽  
Eric J. Fetzer
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Extratropical Cyclones ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Moisture Flux Convergence ◽  
Convective Clouds ◽  
Moisture Advection ◽  
Deep Convective Clouds ◽  
Stratiform Clouds ◽  
High Level

Precipitation (from TMPA) and cloud structures (from MODIS) in extratropical cyclones (ETCs) are modulated by phases of large-scale moisture flux convergence (from MERRA-2) in the sectors of ETCs, which are studied in a new coordinate system with directions of both surface warm fronts (WFs) and surface cold fronts (CFs) fixed. The phase of moisture flux convergence is described by moisture dynamical convergence Qcnvg and moisture advection Qadvt. Precipitation and occurrence frequencies of deep convective clouds are sensitive to changes in Qcnvg, while moisture tendency is sensitive to changes in Qadvt. Increasing Qcnvg and Qadvt during the advance of the WF is associated with increasing occurrences of both deep convective and high-level stratiform clouds. A rapid decrease in Qadvt with a relatively steady Qcnvg during the advance of the CF is associated with high-level cloud distribution weighting toward deep convective clouds. Behind the CF (cold sector or area with polar air intrusion), the moisture flux is divergent with abundant low- and midlevel clouds. From deepening to decaying stages, the pre-WF and WF sectors experience high-level clouds shifting to more convective and less stratiform because of decreasing Qadvt with relatively steady Qcnvg, and the CF experiences shifting from high-level to midlevel clouds. Sectors of moisture flux divergence are less influenced by cyclone evolution. Surface evaporation is the largest in the cold sector and the CF during the deepening stage. Deepening cyclones are more efficient in poleward transport of water vapor.

scholarly journals An Analysis of Moisture Fluxes into the Gulf of California

2009 ◽  
Vol 22 (8) ◽  
pp. 2216-2239 ◽  
Author(s):  
Man-Li C. Wu ◽  
Siegfried D. Schubert ◽  
Max J. Suarez ◽  
Norden E. Huang
Keyword(s):  
Time Scales ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Gulf Of California ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Easterly Waves ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Moisture Fluxes ◽  
The Caribbean ◽  
The U.S

Abstract This study examines the nature of episodes of enhanced warm-season moisture flux into the Gulf of California. Both spatial structure and primary time scales of the fluxes are examined using the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis data for the period 1980–2001. The analysis approach consists of a compositing technique that is keyed on the low-level moisture fluxes into the Gulf of California. The results show that the fluxes have a rich spectrum of temporal variability, with periods of enhanced transport over the gulf linked to African easterly waves on subweekly (3–8 day) time scales, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) at intraseasonal time scales (20–90 day), and intermediate (10–15 day) time-scale disturbances that appear to originate primarily in the Caribbean Sea–western Atlantic Ocean. In the case of the MJO, enhanced low-level westerlies and large-scale rising motion provide an environment that favors large-scale cyclonic development near the west coast of Central America that, over the course of about 2 weeks, expands northward along the coast eventually reaching the mouth of the Gulf of California where it acts to enhance the southerly moisture flux in that region. On a larger scale, the development includes a northward shift in the eastern Pacific ITCZ, enhanced precipitation over much of Mexico and the southwestern United States, and enhanced southerly/southeasterly fluxes from the Gulf of Mexico into Mexico and the southwestern and central United States. In the case of the easterly waves, the systems that reach Mexico appear to redevelop/reorganize on the Pacific coast and then move rapidly to the northwest to contribute to the moisture flux into the Gulf of California. The most intense fluxes into the gulf on these time scales appear to be synchronized with a midlatitude short-wave trough over the U.S. West Coast and enhanced low-level southerly fluxes over the U.S. Great Plains. The intermediate (10–15 day) time-scale systems have zonal wavelengths roughly twice that of the easterly waves, and their initiation appears to be linked to an extratropical U.S. East Coast ridge and associated northeasterly winds that extend well into the Caribbean Sea during their development phase. The short (3–8 day) and, to a lesser extent, the intermediate (10–15 day) time-scale fluxes tend to be enhanced when the convectively active phase of the MJO is situated over the Americas.

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