Estimates of the Global Water Budget and Its Annual Cycle Using Observational and Model Data

2007 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 758-769 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kevin E. Trenberth ◽  
Lesley Smith ◽  
Taotao Qian ◽  
Aiguo Dai ◽  
John Fasullo
Keyword(s):  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
Atmospheric Forcings ◽  
Annual Means ◽  
Climate Analysis ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract A brief review is given of research in the Climate Analysis Section at NCAR on the water cycle. Results are used to provide a new estimate of the global hydrological cycle for long-term annual means that includes estimates of the main reservoirs of water as well as the flows of water among them. For precipitation P over land a comparison among three datasets enables uncertainties to be estimated. In addition, results are presented for the mean annual cycle of the atmospheric hydrological cycle based on 1979–2000 data. These include monthly estimates of P, evapotranspiration E, atmospheric moisture convergence over land, and changes in atmospheric storage, for the major continental landmasses, zonal means over land, hemispheric land means, and global land means. The evapotranspiration is computed from the Community Land Model run with realistic atmospheric forcings, including precipitation that is constrained by observations for monthly means but with high-frequency information taken from atmospheric reanalyses. Results for E − P are contrasted with those from atmospheric moisture budgets based on 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data. The latter show physically unrealistic results, because evaporation often exceeds precipitation over land, especially in the Tropics and subtropics.

scholarly journals Developing and Demonstrating Climate Indicators for Monitoring the Changing Water Cycle

2016 ◽  
Vol 2016 ◽  
pp. 1-18 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Feng ◽  
Paul Houser
Keyword(s):  
Water Cycle ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Spatial Correlations ◽  
Climate Indicators ◽  
Terrestrial Water ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture Content ◽  
Daily Total

In this study, we developed a suite of spatially and temporally scalable Water Cycle Indicators (WCI) to examine the long-term changes in water cycle variability and demonstrated their use over the contiguous US (CONUS) during 1979–2013 using the MERRA reanalysis product. The WCI indicators consist of six water balance variables monitoring the mean conditions and extreme aspects of the changing water cycle. The variables include precipitation (P), evaporation (E), runoff (R), terrestrial water storage (dS/dt), moisture convergence flux (C), and atmospheric moisture content (dW/dt). Means are determined as the daily total value, while extremes include wet and dry extremes, defined as the upper and lower 10th percentile of daily distribution. Trends are assessed for annual and seasonal indicators at several different spatial scales. Our results indicate that significant changes have occurred in most of the indicators, and these changes are geographically and seasonally dependent. There are more upward trends than downward trends in all eighteen annual indicators averaged over the CONUS. The spatial correlations between the annual trends in means and extremes are statistically significant across the country and are stronger forP,E,R, andCcompared todS/dtanddW/dt.

Drought Monitoring of Southwestern China Using Insufficient GRACE Data for the Long-Term Mean Reference Frame under Global Change

2018 ◽  
Vol 31 (17) ◽  
pp. 6897-6911 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chuanpeng Zhao ◽  
Yaohuan Huang ◽  
Zhonghua Li ◽  
Mingxing Chen
Keyword(s):  
Reference Frame ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Time Scale ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Standardized Precipitation Index ◽  
Severity Index ◽  
Drought Monitoring ◽  
Drought Severity ◽  
Global Changes

Global changes, such as human activities and climate change, increase the odds of worsening drought. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite provides an opportunity to monitor drought levels by the total amount of water, instead of using a small finite set of water cycle elements or indirect indicators. The potential gap lies in the insufficient size of the GRACE record. The database does not meet the requirements of a stationary annual cycle calculated over a relatively long period as recommended by the IPCC, and the disturbance from long-term global changes is often not considered. In this work, a GRACE-based modulated water deficit (GRACE-MWD) process for drought monitoring under the modulated annual cycle (MAC) reference frame in southwest China was proposed. GRACE-MWD achieved a higher ratio of agreement with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index at a time scale of 3 months (SPEI03): it ranged from 0.48 to 0.84, while the GRACE-based drought severity index (GRACE-DSI) ranged from 0.48 to 0.68. Compared with remote sensing datasets widely used in drought monitoring, GRACE-MWD data are less affected by seasonality from land-cover categories, which benefit from the MAC reference frame. The ratio-of-agreement metric for the study area showed that GRACE-MWD had a time scale between 7 and 11 months in reference to SPEI and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). The stability of the MAC reference frame to GRACE-MWD was further discussed when GRACE records were extended and was more stable than that of the stationary annual cycle. GRACE-MWD meets global changes via an adaptive reference frame, which is worthy of generalizing to global applications.

scholarly journals A twenty-year study on natural and manmade global interannual fluctuations of cirrus cloud cover

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
pp. 93-126 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
D. S. Balis ◽  
G. Tselioudis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Cirrus Cloud ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The seasonal variability and the interannual variance explained by ENSO and NAO to cirrus cloud cover (CCC) are examined during the twenty-year period 1984–2004. CCC was found to be significantly correlated with vertical velocities and relative humidity from ECMWF/ERA40 in the tropics (correlations up to –0.7 and +0.7 at some locations, respectively) suggesting that variations in large-scale vertical winds and relative humidity fields can be the origin of up to half of the local variability in CCC over these regions. These correlations reflect mostly the seasonal cycle. Although the annual cycle is dominant in all latitudes and longitudes, peaking over the tropics and subtropics, its amplitude can be exceeded during strong El Nino/La Nina events. Over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the interannual variance of CCC which can be explained by ENSO is about 6.8% and it is ~2.3 times larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle. Natural long-term trends in the tropics are generally small (about –0.3% cloud cover per decade) and possible manmade trends in those regions are also small. The contributions of NAO and QBO to the variance of CCC in the tropics are also small. In the northern mid–latitudes, on the other hand, the effect of NAO is more significant and can be very important regionally. Over northern Europe and the eastern part of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) there is a small positive correlation between CCC and NAO index during the wintertime of about 0.3. In this region, the interannual variance of CCC explained by NAO is 2.6% and the amplitude of the annual cycle is 3.1%. Long-term trends over this region are about +1.6% cloud cover per decade and compare well with the observed manmade trends over congested air traffic regions in Europe and the North Atlantic as have been evidenced from earlier findings.

scholarly journals A study on natural and manmade global interannual fluctuations of cirrus cloud cover for the period 1984–2004

2007 ◽  
Vol 7 (10) ◽  
pp. 2631-2642 ◽  
Author(s):  
K. Eleftheratos ◽  
C. S. Zerefos ◽  
P. Zanis ◽  
D. S. Balis ◽  
G. Tselioudis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Relative Humidity ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Cloud Cover ◽  
Cirrus Cloud ◽  
The North ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
The North Atlantic ◽  
The Tropics

Abstract. The seasonal variability and the interannual variance explained by ENSO and NAO to cirrus cloud cover (CCC) are examined during the twenty-year period 1984–2004. CCC was found to be significantly correlated with vertical velocities and relative humidity from ECMWF/ERA40 in the tropics (correlations up to −0.7 and +0.7 at some locations, respectively) suggesting that variations in large-scale vertical winds and relative humidity fields can be the origin of up to half of the local variability in CCC over these regions. These correlations reflect mostly the seasonal cycle. Although the annual cycle is dominant in all latitudes and longitudes, peaking over the tropics and subtropics, its amplitude can be exceeded during strong El Nino/La Nina events. Over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean the interannual variance of CCC which can be explained by ENSO is about 6.8% and it is ~2.3 times larger than the amplitude of the annual cycle. Natural long-term trends in the tropics are generally small (about −0.3% cloud cover per decade) and possible manmade trends in those regions are also small. The contributions of NAO and QBO to the variance of CCC in the tropics are also small. In the northern mid-latitudes, on the other hand, the effect of NAO is more significant and can be very important regionally. Over northern Europe and the eastern part of the North Atlantic Flight Corridor (NAFC) there is a small positive correlation between CCC and NAO index during the wintertime of about 0.3. In this region, the interannual variance of CCC explained by NAO is 2.6% and the amplitude of the annual cycle is 3.1%. Long-term trends over this region are about +1.6% cloud cover per decade and compare well with the observed manmade trends over congested air traffic regions in Europe and the North Atlantic as have been evidenced from earlier findings.

scholarly journals Closing the water cycle from observations across scales: Where do we stand?

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-95
Author(s):  
Wouter Dorigo ◽  
Stephan Dietrich ◽  
Filipe Aires ◽  
Luca Brocca ◽  
Sarah Carter ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Spatial Scales ◽  
Spatial And Temporal Scales ◽  
Mitigation And Adaptation ◽  
Consistent Assessment ◽  
Earth’S Climate ◽  
Improved Model

AbstractLife on Earth vitally depends on the availability of water. Human pressure on freshwater resources is increasing, as is human exposure to weather-related extremes (droughts, storms, floods) caused by climate change. Understanding these changes is pivotal for developing mitigation and adaptation strategies. The Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) defines a suite of Essential Climate Variables (ECVs), many related to the water cycle, required to systematically monitor the Earth's climate system. Since long-term observations of these ECVs are derived from different observation techniques, platforms, instruments, and retrieval algorithms, they often lack the accuracy, completeness, resolution, to consistently to characterize water cycle variability at multiple spatial and temporal scales.Here, we review the capability of ground-based and remotely sensed observations of water cycle ECVs to consistently observe the hydrological cycle. We evaluate the relevant land, atmosphere, and ocean water storages and the fluxes between them, including anthropogenic water use. Particularly, we assess how well they close on multiple temporal and spatial scales. On this basis, we discuss gaps in observation systems and formulate guidelines for future water cycle observation strategies. We conclude that, while long-term water-cycle monitoring has greatly advanced in the past, many observational gaps still need to be overcome to close the water budget and enable a comprehensive and consistent assessment across scales. Trends in water cycle components can only be observed with great uncertainty, mainly due to insufficient length and homogeneity. An advanced closure of the water cycle requires improved model-data synthesis capabilities, particularly at regional to local scales.

scholarly journals Estimated Impacts of Climate Change on Eddy Meridional Moisture Transport in the Atmosphere

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (23) ◽  
pp. 4992 ◽  
Author(s):  
Soldatenko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
Baroclinic Instability ◽  
Lower Troposphere ◽  
Static Stability ◽  
Change Scenario ◽  
Atmospheric Moisture ◽  
Global Water Cycle

Research findings suggest that water (hydrological) cycle of the earth intensifies in response to climate change, since the amount of water that evaporates from the ocean and land to the atmosphere and the total water content in the air will increase with temperature. In addition, climate change affects the large-scale atmospheric circulation by, for example, altering the characteristics of extratropical transient eddies (cyclones), which play a dominant role in the meridional transport of heat, moisture, and momentum from tropical to polar latitudes. Thus, climate change also affects the planetary hydrological cycle by redistributing atmospheric moisture around the globe. Baroclinic instability, a specific type of dynamical instability of the zonal atmospheric flow, is the principal mechanism by which extratropical cyclones form and evolve. It is expected that, due to global warming, the two most fundamental dynamical quantities that control the development of baroclinic instability and the overall global atmospheric dynamics—the parameter of static stability and the meridional temperature gradient (MTG)—will undergo certain changes. As a result, climate change can affect the formation and evolution of transient extratropical eddies and, therefore, macro-exchange of heat and moisture between low and high latitudes and the global water cycle as a whole. In this paper, we explore the effect of changes in the static stability parameter and MTG caused by climate change on the annual-mean eddy meridional moisture flux (AMEMF), using the two classical atmospheric models: the mid-latitude f-plane model and the two-layer β-plane model. These models are represented in two versions: “dry,” which considers the static stability of dry air alone, and “moist,” in which effective static stability is considered as a combination of stability of dry and moist air together. Sensitivity functions were derived for these models that enable estimating the influence of infinitesimal perturbations in the parameter of static stability and MTG on the AMEMF and on large-scale eddy dynamics characterized by the growth rate of unstable baroclinic waves of various wavelengths. For the base climate change scenario, in which the surface temperature increases by 1 °C and warming of the upper troposphere outpaces warming of the lower troposphere by 2 °C (this scenario corresponds to the observed warming trend), the response of the mass-weighted vertically averaged annual mean MTG is -0.2 ℃ per 1000 km. The dry static stability increases insignificantly relative to the reference climate state, while on the other hand, the effective static stability decreases by more than 5.4%. Assuming that static stability of the atmosphere and the MTG are independent of each other (using One-factor-at-a-time approach), we estimate that the increase in AMEMF caused by change in MTG is about 4%. Change in dry static stability has little effect on AMEMF, while change in effective static stability leads to an increase in AMEMF of about 5%. Thus, neglecting atmospheric moisture in calculations of the atmospheric static stability leads to tangible differences between the results obtained using the dry and moist models. Moist models predict ~9% increase in AMEMF due to global warming. Dry models predict ~4% increase in AMEMF solely because of the change in MTG. For the base climate change scenario, the average temperature of the lower troposphere (up to ~4 km), in which the atmospheric moisture is concentrated, increases by ~1.5 ℃. This leads to an increase in specific humidity of about 10.5%. Thus, since both AMEMF and atmospheric water vapor content increase due to the influence of climate change, a rather noticeable restructuring of the global water cycle is expected.

The Annual Cycle of the Energy Budget. Part II: Meridional Structures and Poleward Transports

2008 ◽  
Vol 21 (10) ◽  
pp. 2313-2325 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. Fasullo ◽  
Kevin E. Trenberth
Keyword(s):  
Energy Storage ◽  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Radiant Energy ◽  
Radiation Budget ◽  
Atmospheric Energy ◽  
Community Land Model ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Winter Hemisphere

Abstract Meridional structure and transports of energy in the atmosphere, ocean, and land are evaluated holistically for the mean and annual cycle zonal averages over the ocean, land, and global domains, with discussion and assessment of uncertainty. At the top of the atmosphere (TOA), adjusted radiances from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) are used along with estimates of energy storage and transport from two global reanalysis datasets for the atmosphere. Three ocean temperature datasets are used to assess changes in the ocean heat content (OE) and their relationship to the net upward surface energy flux over ocean (FoS), which is derived from the residual of the TOA and atmospheric energy budgets. The surface flux over land is from a stand-alone simulation of the Community Land Model forced by observed fields. In the extratropics, absorbed solar radiation (ASR) achieves a maximum in summer with peak values near the solstices. Outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) maxima also occur in summer but lag ASR by 1–2 months, consistent with temperature maxima over land. In the tropics, however, OLR relates to high cloud variations and peaks late in the dry monsoon season, while the OLR minima in summer coincide with deep convection in the monsoon trough at the height of the rainy season. Most of the difference between the TOA radiation and atmospheric energy storage tendency is made up by a large heat flux into the ocean in summer and out of the ocean in winter. In the Northern Hemisphere, the transport of energy from ocean to land regions is substantial in winter, and modest in summer. In the Southern Hemisphere extratropics, land − ocean differences play only a small role and the main energy transport by the atmosphere and ocean is poleward. There is reasonably good agreement between FoS and observed changes in OE, except for south of 40°S, where differences among several ocean datasets point to that region as the main source of errors in achieving an overall energy balance. The winter hemisphere atmospheric circulation is the dominant contributor to poleward energy transports outside of the tropics [6–7 PW (1 petawatt = 1015 W)], with summer transports being relatively weak (∼3 PW)—slightly more in the Southern Hemisphere and slightly less in the Northern Hemisphere. Ocean transports outside of the tropics are found to be small (<2 PW) for all months. Strong cross-equatorial heat transports in the ocean of up to 5 PW exhibit a large annual cycle in phase with poleward atmospheric transports of the winter hemisphere.

scholarly journals Long term halocarbon observations from a~coastal and an inland site in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 1919-1969 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Robinson ◽  
N. R. P. Harris ◽  
M. J. Ashfold ◽  
B. Gostlow ◽  
N. J. Warwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Electron Capture Detection ◽  
Baseline Values ◽  
Atmospheric Variations ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Limited Duration ◽  
Malaysian Borneo

Abstract. Short lived halocarbons are believed to have important sources in the tropics where rapid vertical transport could provide a significant source to the stratosphere. In this study, quasi-continuous measurements of short-lived halocarbons are reported for two tropical sites in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo), one coastal and one inland (rainforest). We present the observations for C2Cl4, CHBr3, CH2Br2* (actually ~80% CH2Br2 and ~20% CHBrCl2) and CH3I from November 2008 to January 2010 made using our μDirac gas chromatographs with electron capture detection (GC-ECD). We focus on the first 15 months of observations, showing over one annual cycle for each compound and therefore adding significantly to the few limited-duration observational studies that have been conducted thus far in southeast Asia. The main feature in the C2Cl4 behaviour at both sites is its annual cycle with the winter months being influenced by northerly flow with higher concentrations, typical of the Northern Hemisphere, with the summer months influenced by southerly flow and lower concentrations representative of the Southern Hemisphere. No such clear annual cycle is seen for CHBr3, CH2Br2Br2* or CH3I. The baseline values for CHBr3 and CH2Br2Br2* are similar at the coastal (overall median: CHBr3 1.7 ppt; CH2Br2Br2* 1.4 ppt) and inland sites (CHBr3 1.6 ppt, CH2Br2Br2* 1.1 ppt), but periods with elevated values are seen at the coast (overall 95th percentile: CHBr3 4.4 ppt; CH2Br2Br2* 1.9 ppt) presumably resulting from the stronger influence of coastal emissions. Overall median bromine values from [CHBr3] + [CH2Br2Br2*] are 8.0 ppt at the coast and 6.8 ppt inland. The median values reported here are largely consistent with other limited tropical data and imply that southeast Asia generally is not, as has been suggested, a hot-spot for emissions of these compounds. These baseline values are consistent with the most recent emissions found for southeast Asia using the p-TOMCAT model. CH3I, which is only observed at the coastal site, is the shortest-lived compound measured in this study and the observed atmospheric variations reflect this, with high variability throughout the study period.

The Hydrological Cycle in Three State-of-the-Art Reanalyses: Intercomparison and Performance Analysis

2012 ◽  
Vol 13 (5) ◽  
pp. 1397-1420 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christof Lorenz ◽  
Harald Kunstmann
Keyword(s):  
Hydrological Cycle ◽  
Water Cycle ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Geographic Location ◽  
Moisture Flux ◽  
Flux Divergence ◽  
Climate Trend ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Tropical Regions

Abstract The three state-of-the-art global atmospheric reanalysis models—namely, ECMWF Interim Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim), Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA; NASA), and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR; NCEP)—are analyzed and compared with independent observations in the period between 1989 and 2006. Comparison of precipitation and temperature estimates from the three models with gridded observations reveals large differences between the reanalyses and also of the observation datasets. A major source of uncertainty in the observations is the spatial distribution and change of the number of gauges over time. In South America, active measuring stations were reduced from 4267 to 390. The quality of precipitation estimates from the reanalyses strongly depends on the geographic location, as there are significant differences especially in tropical regions. The closure of the water cycle in the three reanalyses is analyzed by estimating long-term mean values for precipitation, evapotranspiration, surface runoff, and moisture flux divergence. Major shortcomings in the moisture budgets of the datasets are mainly due to inconsistencies of the net precipitation minus evaporation and evapotranspiration, respectively, (P − E) estimates over the oceans and landmasses. This imbalance largely originates from the assimilation of radiance sounding data from the NOAA-15 satellite, which results in an unrealistic increase of oceanic P − E in the MERRA and CFSR budgets. Overall, ERA-Interim shows both a comparatively reasonable closure of the terrestrial and atmospheric water balance and a reasonable agreement with the observation datasets. The limited performance of the three state-of-the-art reanalyses in reproducing the hydrological cycle, however, puts the use of these models for climate trend analyses and long-term water budget studies into question.

scholarly journals Long-term halocarbon observations from a coastal and an inland site in Sabah, Malaysian Borneo

2014 ◽  
Vol 14 (16) ◽  
pp. 8369-8388 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. D. Robinson ◽  
N. R. P. Harris ◽  
M. J. Ashfold ◽  
B. Gostlow ◽  
N. J. Warwick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Southeast Asia ◽  
Annual Cycle ◽  
Transport Model ◽  
Hot Spot ◽  
Electron Capture Detection ◽  
Baseline Values ◽  
Atmospheric Variations ◽  
The Tropics ◽  
Malaysian Borneo

Abstract. Short-lived halocarbons are believed to have important sources in the tropics, where rapid vertical transport could provide a significant source to the stratosphere. In this study, quasi-continuous measurements of short-lived halocarbons are reported for two tropical sites in Sabah (Malaysian Borneo), one coastal and one inland (rainforest). We present the observations for C2Cl4, CHBr3, CH2Br2* (actually ~80% CH2Br2 and ~20% CHBrCl2) and CH3I from November 2008 to January 2010 made using our μDirac gas chromatographs with electron capture detection (GC-ECD). We focus on the first 15 months of observations, showing over one annual cycle for each compound and therefore adding significantly to the few limited-duration observational studies that have been conducted thus far in southeast Asia. The main feature in the C2Cl4 behaviour at both sites is its annual cycle, with the winter months being influenced by northerly flow with higher concentrations, typical of the Northern Hemisphere, and with the summer months influenced by southerly flow and lower concentrations representative of the Southern Hemisphere. No such clear annual cycle is seen for CHBr3, CH2Br2* or CH3I. The baseline values for CHBr3 and CH2Br2* are similar at the coastal (overall median: CHBr3 1.7 ppt, CH2Br2* 1.4 ppt) and inland sites (CHBr3 1.6 ppt, CH2Br2* 1.1 ppt), but periods with elevated values are seen at the coast (overall 95th percentile: CHBr3 4.4 ppt, CH2Br2ast 1.9 ppt), presumably resulting from the stronger influence of coastal emissions. Overall median bromine values from [CHBr3 × 3] + [CH2Br2* × 2] are 8.0 ppt at the coast and 6.8 ppt inland. The median values reported here are largely consistent with other limited tropical data and imply that southeast Asia generally is not, as has been suggested, a hot spot for emissions of these compounds. These baseline values are consistent with the most recent emissions found for southeast Asia using the p-TOMCAT (Toulouse Off-line Model of Chemistry And Transport) model. CH3I, which is only observed at the coastal site, is the shortest-lived compound measured in this study, and the observed atmospheric variations reflect this, with high variability throughout the study period.

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