Examination of the Combined Effect of Deep-layer Vertical Shear Direction and Lower-Tropospheric Mean Flow on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size Based on the ERA5 Reanalysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buo-Fu Chen ◽  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Shear Direction ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Representative Subset ◽  
Favorable Conditions ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractIdealized numerical studies have suggested that in addition to vertical wind shear (VWS) magnitude, the VWS profile also affects tropical cyclone (TC) development. A way to further understand the VWS profile’s effect is to examine the interaction between a TC and various shear-relative low-level mean flow (LMF) orientations. This study mainly uses the ERA5 reanalysis to verify that, consistent with idealized simulations, boundary-layer processes associated with different shear-relative LMF orientations affect real-world TC’s intensity and size. Based on analyses of 720 TCs from multiple basins during 2004–2016, a TC affected by an LMF directed toward downshear-left in the Northern Hemisphere favors intensification, whereas an LMF directed toward upshear-right is favorable for expansion. Furthermore, physical processes associated with shear-relative LMF orientation may also partly explain the relationship between the VWS direction and TC development, as there is a correlation between the two variables.The analysis of reanalysis data provides other new insights. The relationship between shear-relative LMF and intensification is not significantly modified by other factors [inner-core sea surface temperature (SST), VWS magnitude, and relative humidity (RH)]. However, the relationship regarding expansion is partly attributed to environmental SST and RH variations for various LMF orientations. Moreover, SST is critical to the basin-dependent variability of the relationship between the shear-relative LMF and intensification. For Atlantic TCs, the relationship between LMF orientation and intensification is inconsistent with all-basin statistics unless the analysis is restricted to a representative subset of samples associated with generally favorable conditions.

scholarly journals An Idealized Numerical Study of Shear-Relative Low-Level Mean Flow on Tropical Cyclone Intensity and Size

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (8) ◽  
pp. 2309-2334 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buo-Fu Chen ◽  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Numerical Study ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Development Stage ◽  
Surface Fluxes ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Core Convection

Abstract Given comparable background vertical wind shear (VWS) magnitudes, the initially imposed shear-relative low-level mean flow (LMF) is hypothesized to modify the structure and convective features of a tropical cyclone (TC). This study uses idealized Weather Research and Forecasting Model simulations to examine TC structure and convection affected by various LMFs directed toward eight shear-relative orientations. The simulated TC affected by an initially imposed LMF directed toward downshear left yields an anomalously high intensification rate, while an upshear-right LMF yields a relatively high expansion rate. These two shear-relative LMF orientations affect the asymmetry of both surface fluxes and frictional inflow in the boundary layer and thus modify the TC convection. During the early development stage, the initially imposed downshear-left LMF promotes inner-core convection because of high boundary layer moisture fluxes into the inner core and is thus favorable for TC intensification because of large radial fluxes of azimuthal mean vorticity near the radius of maximum wind in the boundary layer. However, TCs affected by various LMFs may modify the near-TC VWS differently, making the intensity evolution afterward more complicated. The TC with a fast-established eyewall in response to the downshear-left LMF further reduces the near-TC VWS, maintaining a relatively high intensification rate. For the upshear-right LMF that leads to active and sustained rainbands in the downshear quadrants, TC size expansion is promoted by a positive radial flux of eddy vorticity near the radius of 34-kt wind (1 kt ≈ 0.51 m s−1) because the vorticity associated with the rainbands is in phase with the storm-motion-relative inflow.

scholarly journals A 10-Year Survey of Tropical Cyclone Inner-Core Lightning Bursts and Their Relationship to Intensity Change

2017 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-36 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stephanie N. Stevenson ◽  
Kristen L. Corbosiero ◽  
Mark DeMaria ◽  
Jonathan L. Vigh
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
North Atlantic ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Promising Result ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Grid Spacing ◽  
Tropical Depressions ◽  
Using Data ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract This study seeks to reconcile discrepancies between previous studies analyzing the relationship between lightning and tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change. Inner-core lightning bursts (ICLBs) were identified from 2005 to 2014 in North Atlantic (NA) and eastern North Pacific (ENP) TCs embedded in favorable environments (e.g., vertical wind shear ≤ 10 m s−1; sea surface temperatures ≥ 26.5°C) using data from the World Wide Lightning Location Network (WWLLN) transformed onto a regular grid with 8-km grid spacing to replicate the expected nadir resolution of the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM). Three hypothesized factors that could impact the 24-h intensity change after a burst were tested: 1) prior intensity change, 2) azimuthal burst location, and 3) radial burst location. Most ICLBs occurred in weak TCs (tropical depressions and tropical storms), and most TCs intensified (remained steady) 24 h after burst onset in the NA (ENP). TCs were more likely to intensify 24 h after an ICLB if they were steady or intensifying prior to burst onset. Azimuthally, 75% of the ICLBs initiated downshear, with 92% of downshear bursts occurring in TCs that remained steady or intensified. Of the ICLBs that initiated or rotated upshear, 2–3 times more were associated with TC intensification than weakening, consistent with recent studies finding more symmetric convection in intensifying TCs. The radial burst location relative to the radius of maximum wind (RMW) provided the most promising result: TCs with an ICLB inside (outside) the RMW were associated with intensification (weakening).

scholarly journals Effects of Low-Level Flow Orientation and Vertical Shear on the Structure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (8) ◽  
pp. 2447-2467 ◽  
Author(s):  
Buo-Fu Chen ◽  
Christopher A. Davis ◽  
Ying-Hwa Kuo
Keyword(s):  
Inner Core ◽  
Outer Region ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Surface Flux ◽  
Surface Flow ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Structure Evolution ◽  
Mean Flow ◽  
Low Level ◽  
Shear Orientation

Abstract This article explores the simultaneous effect of vertical wind shear (VWS) and low-level mean flow (LMF) on tropical cyclone (TC) structure evolution. The structural evolution of 180 western North Pacific TCs from 2002 to 2014 was measured by a new parameter, the RV ratio, which is defined as the ratio of a TC’s radius of 34-kt (17.5 m s−1) wind to its maximum wind speed at the ending point of the intensification period. Whereas TCs with RV ratios in the lowest quartile of all 180 samples favored intensification over expansion, and 82% of these TCs experienced rapid intensification, TCs with RV ratios in the topmost quartile favored size expansion over intensification. A novel result of this study is that TC RV ratios were found to correlate with the LMF orientation relative to the deep-layer VWS vector. Specifically, whereas an LMF directed toward the left-of-shear orientation favors TC intensification, a right-of-shear LMF favors TC size expansion. This study further analyzed the TC rainfall asymmetry and asymmetric surface flow using satellite observations. Results show that for a TC affected by an LMF with right-of-shear orientation, the positive surface flux anomaly in the upshear outer region promotes convection in the downshear rainband region. On the other hand, a left-of-shear LMF induces a positive surface flux anomaly in the downshear outer region, thus promoting convection in the upshear inner core. Enhancement of the symmetric inner-core convection favors intensification, whereas enhancement of the downshear rainband favors expansion.

scholarly journals Recent Advances in Our Understanding of Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change Processes from Airborne Observations

Atmosphere ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (5) ◽  
pp. 650
Author(s):  
Robert F. Rogers
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Intensity Change ◽  
Change Processes ◽  
Cyclone Intensity ◽  
Secondary Eyewall Formation ◽  
Warm Core ◽  
Major Hurricane ◽  
Upper Level

Recent (past ~15 years) advances in our understanding of tropical cyclone (TC) intensity change processes using aircraft data are summarized here. The focus covers a variety of spatiotemporal scales, regions of the TC inner core, and stages of the TC lifecycle, from preformation to major hurricane status. Topics covered include (1) characterizing TC structure and its relationship to intensity change; (2) TC intensification in vertical shear; (3) planetary boundary layer (PBL) processes and air–sea interaction; (4) upper-level warm core structure and evolution; (5) genesis and development of weak TCs; and (6) secondary eyewall formation/eyewall replacement cycles (SEF/ERC). Gaps in our airborne observational capabilities are discussed, as are new observing technologies to address these gaps and future directions for airborne TC intensity change research.

Tracking a Long-Lasting Outer Tropical Cyclone Rainband: Origin and Convective Transformation

2019 ◽  
Vol 76 (10) ◽  
pp. 3267-3283 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cheng-Ku Yu ◽  
Che-Yu Lin ◽  
Jhang-Shuo Luo
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Radial Distance ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Convective Precipitation ◽  
Squall Line ◽  
Mature Stage ◽  
Clear Trend ◽  
Dynamical Interaction ◽  
Cold Pools

Abstract This study used radar and surface observations to track a long-lasting outer tropical cyclone rainband (TCR) of Typhoon Jangmi (2008) over a considerable period of time (~10 h) from its formative to mature stage. Detailed analyses of these unique observations indicate that the TCR was initiated on the eastern side of the typhoon at a radial distance of ~190 km as it detached from the upwind segment of a stratiform rainband located close to the inner-core boundary. The outer rainband, as it propagated cyclonically outward, underwent a prominent convective transformation from generally stratiform precipitation during the earlier period to highly organized, convective precipitation during its mature stage. The transformation was accompanied by a clear trend of surface kinematics and thermodynamics toward squall-line-like features. The observed intensification of the rainband was not simply related to the spatial variation of the ambient CAPE or potential instability; instead, the dynamical interaction between the prerainband vertical shear and cold pools, with progression toward increasingly optimal conditions over time, provides a reasonable explanation for the temporal alternation of the precipitation intensity. The increasing intensity of cold pools was suggested to play an essential role in the convective transformation for the rainband. The propagation characteristics of the studied TCR were distinctly different from those of wave disturbances frequently documented within the cores of tropical cyclones; however, they were consistent with the theoretically predicted propagation of convectively generated cold pools. The convective transformation, as documented in the present case, is anticipated to be one of the fundamental processes determining the evolving and structural nature of outer TCRs.

scholarly journals Tropical Cyclone Climatology from Satellite Passive Microwave Measurements

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (21) ◽  
pp. 3610
Author(s):  
Song Yang ◽  
Richard Bankert ◽  
Joshua Cossuth
Keyword(s):  
Southern Hemisphere ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Vertical Wind ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Shear Direction ◽  
Motion Direction ◽  
Horizontal Structure

The satellite passive microwave (PMW) sensor brightness temperatures (TBs) of all tropical cyclones (TCs) from 1987–2012 have been carefully calibrated for inter-sensor frequency differences, center position fixing using the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER) scheme, and application of the Backus–Gilbert interpolation scheme for better presentation of the TC horizontal structure. With additional storm motion direction and the 200–850 hPa wind shear direction, a unique and comprehensive TC database is created for this study. A reliable and detailed climatology for each TC category is analyzed and discussed. There is significant annual variability of the number of storms at hurricane intensity, but the annual number of all storms is relatively stable. Results based on the analysis of the 89 GHz horizontal polarization TBs over oceans are presented in this study. An eyewall contraction is clearly displayed with an increase in TC intensity. Three composition schemes are applied to present a reliable and detailed TC climatology at each intensity category and its geographic characteristics. The global composition relative to the North direction is not able to lead a realistic structure for an individual TC. Enhanced convection in the down-motion quadrants relative to direction of TC motion is obvious for Cat 1–3 TCs, while Cat 4–5 TCs still have a concentric pattern of convection within 200 km radius. Regional differences are evident for weak storms. Results indicate the direction of TC movement has more impact on weak storms than on Cat 4–5 TCs. A striking feature is that all TCs have a consistent pattern of minimum TBs at 89 GHz in the downshear left quadrant (DSLQ) for the northern hemisphere basins and in the downshear right quadrant (DSRQ) for the southern hemisphere basin, regarding the direction of the 200–850 hPa wind shear. Tropical depression and tropical storm have the minimum TBs in the downshear quadrants. The axis of the minimum TBs is slightly shifted toward the vertical shear direction. There is no geographic variation of storm structure relative to the vertical wind shear direction except over the southern hemisphere which shows a mirror image of the storm structure over the northern hemisphere. This study indicates that regional variation of storm structure relative to storm motion direction is mainly due to differences of the vertical wind shear direction among these basins. Results demonstrate the direction of the 200–850 hPa wind shear plays a critical role in TC structure.

scholarly journals An intercomparison of tropical cyclone best-track products for the southwest Pacific

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (6) ◽  
pp. 1431-1447 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew D. Magee ◽  
Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd ◽  
Anthony S. Kiem
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Geostationary Satellite ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Tropical Cyclogenesis ◽  
Southwest Pacific ◽  
Zonal Winds ◽  
Spatio Temporal ◽  
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Abstract. Recent efforts to understand tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the southwest Pacific (SWP) have led to the development of numerous TC databases. The methods used to compile each database vary and are based on data from different meteorological centres, standalone TC databases and archived synoptic charts. Therefore the aims of this study are to (i) provide a spatio-temporal comparison of three TC best-track (BT) databases and explore any differences between them (and any associated implications) and (ii) investigate whether there are any spatial, temporal or statistical differences between pre-satellite (1945–1969), post-satellite (1970–2011) and post-geostationary satellite (1982–2011) era TC data given the changing observational technologies with time. To achieve this, we compare three best-track TC databases for the SWP region (0–35° S, 135° E–120° W) from 1945 to 2011: the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC), the International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship (IBTrACS) and the Southwest Pacific Enhanced Archive of Tropical Cyclones (SPEArTC). The results of this study suggest that SPEArTC is the most complete repository of TCs for the SWP region. In particular, we show that the SPEArTC database includes a number of additional TCs, not included in either the JTWC or IBTrACS database. These SPEArTC events do occur under environmental conditions conducive to tropical cyclogenesis (TC genesis), including anomalously negative 700 hPa vorticity (VORT), anomalously negative vertical shear of zonal winds (VSZW), anomalously negative 700 hPa geopotential height (GPH), cyclonic (absolute) 700 hPa winds and low values of absolute vertical wind shear (EVWS). Further, while changes in observational technologies from 1945 have undoubtedly improved our ability to detect and monitor TCs, we show that the number of TCs detected prior to the satellite era (1945–1969) are not statistically different to those in the post-satellite era (post-1970). Although data from pre-satellite and pre-geostationary satellite periods are currently inadequate for investigating TC intensity, this study suggests that SPEArTC data (from 1945) may be used to investigate long-term variability of TC counts and TC genesis locations.

Improved Climatology of Tropical Cyclone Precipitation from Satellite Passive Microwave Measurements

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-42
Author(s):  
Song Yang ◽  
Vincent Lao ◽  
Richard Bankert ◽  
Timothy R. Whitcomb ◽  
Joshua Cossuth
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Passive Microwave ◽  
Shear Direction ◽  
Tropical Depression ◽  
Contraction Process ◽  
Concentric Pattern ◽  
Microwave Sensors ◽  
Left Quadrant

AbstractAccurate precipitation climatology is presented for tropical depression (TD), tropical storm (TS), and tropical cyclone (TC) over oceans using the recently-released, consistent and high quality precipitation datasets from all passive microwave sensors covering 1998-2012 along with the Automated Rotational Center Hurricane Eye Retrieval (ARCHER)-based TC center positions. Impacts with respect to the direction of both TC movement and the 200-850 hPa wind shear on the spatial distributions of TC precipitation are analyzed. The TC eyewall contraction process during its intensification is noted by a decrease in the radius of maximum rainrate with an increase in TC intensity. For global TCs, the maximum rainrate with respect to the direction of TC movement is located in the down-motion quadrants for TD, TS, and Cat 1-3 TCs, and in a concentric pattern for Cat 4-5 TCs. A consistent maximum TC precipitation with respect to the direction of the 200-850 hPa wind shear is shown in the down shear left quadrant (DSLQ). With respect to direction of TC movement, spatial patterns of TC precipitation vary with basins and show different features for weak and strong storms. The maximum rainrate is always located in DSLQ for all TC categories and basins, except the Southern Hemisphere basin where it is in the down shear right quadrant (DSRQ). This study not only confirms previously published results on TC precipitation distributions relative to vertical wind shear direction, but also provides a detailed distribution for each TC category and TS, while TD storms display an enhanced rainfall rate ahead of the down shear quadrants.

scholarly journals High-Resolution Ensemble HFV3 Forecasts of Hurricane Michael (2018): Rapid Intensification in Shear

2020 ◽  
Vol 148 (5) ◽  
pp. 2009-2032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew T. Hazelton ◽  
Xuejin Zhang ◽  
Sundararaman Gopalakrishnan ◽  
William Ramstrom ◽  
Frank Marks ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclones ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Shear ◽  
Rapid Intensification ◽  
Forecast System ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Cubed Sphere ◽  
Environmental Prediction ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract The FV3GFS is the current operational Global Forecast System (GFS) at the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), which combines a finite-volume cubed sphere dynamical core (FV3) and GFS physics. In this study, FV3GFS is used to gain understanding of rapid intensification (RI) of tropical cyclones (TCs) in shear. The analysis demonstrates the importance of TC structure in a complex system like Hurricane Michael, which intensified to a category 5 hurricane over the Gulf of Mexico despite over 20 kt (10 m s−1) of vertical wind shear. Michael’s RI is examined using a global-nest FV3GFS ensemble with the nest at 3-km resolution. The ensemble shows a range of peak intensities from 77 to 159 kt (40–82 m s−1). Precipitation symmetry, vortex tilt, moisture, and other aspects of Michael’s evolution are compared through composites of stronger and weaker members. The 850–200-hPa vertical shear is 22 kt (11 m s−1) in the mean of both strong and weak members during the early stage. Tilt and moisture are two distinguishing factors between strong and weak members. The relationship between vortex tilt and humidification is complex, and other studies have shown both are important for sheared intensification. Here, it is shown that tilt reduction leads to upshear humidification and is thus a driving factor for intensification. A stronger initial vortex and early evolution of the vortex also appear to be the key to members that are able to resist the sheared environment.

scholarly journals A Survey on the Relationship between Ocean Subsurface Temperature and Tropical Cyclone over the Western North Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-14
Author(s):  
Difu Sun ◽  
Junqiang Song ◽  
Kaijun Ren ◽  
Xiaoyong Li ◽  
Guangjie Wang
Keyword(s):  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Water Temperature ◽  
Negative Correlation ◽  
North Pacific ◽  
Western North Pacific ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Longwave Radiation ◽  
Subsurface Water ◽  
Subsurface Temperature ◽  
The Relationship

The relationship between ocean subsurface temperature and tropical cyclone (TC) over the western North Pacific (WNP) is studied based on the TC best-track data and global reanalysis data during the period of 1948–2012. Here the TC frequency (TCF), lifespan, and genesis position of TCs are analysed. A distinctive negative correlation between subsurface water temperature and TCF is observed, especially the TCF in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP (0–15°N, 150–180°E). According to the detrended subsurface temperature anomalies of the 125 m depth layer in the main TC genesis area (0–30°N, 100–180°E), we selected the subsurface cold and warm years. During the subsurface cold years, TCs tend to have a longer mean lifespan and a more southeastern genesis position than the subsurface warm years in general. To further investigate the causes of this characteristic, the TC genesis potential indexes (GPI) are used to analyse the contributions of environmental factors to TC activities. The results indicate that the negative correlation between subsurface water temperature and TCF is mainly caused by the variation of TCF in the southeastern quadrant of the WNP, where the oceanic and atmospheric environments are related to ocean subsurface conditions. Specifically, compared with the subsurface warm years, there are larger relative vorticity, higher relative humidity, smaller vertical wind shear, weaker net longwave radiation, and higher ocean mixed layer temperature in the southeastern quadrant during cold years, which are all favorable for genesis and development of TC.

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