Sensitivity of 24-h Forecast Dryline Position and Structure to Boundary Layer Parameterizations in Convection-Allowing WRF Model Simulations

2015 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 613-638 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adam J. Clark ◽  
Michael C. Coniglio ◽  
Brice E. Coffer ◽  
Greg Thompson ◽  
Ming Xue ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Layer Structure ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
The North ◽  
Boundary Layer Processes ◽  
Moisture Profiles ◽  
Dry Bias

Abstract Recent NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiments have emphasized the sensitivity of forecast sensible weather fields to how boundary layer processes are represented in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. Thus, since 2010, the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms has configured at least three members of their WRF-based Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast (SSEF) system specifically for examination of sensitivities to parameterizations of turbulent mixing, including the Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ); quasi-normal scale elimination (QNSE); Asymmetrical Convective Model, version 2 (ACM2); Yonsei University (YSU); and Mellor–Yamada–Nakanishi–Niino (MYNN) schemes (hereafter PBL members). In postexperiment analyses, significant differences in forecast boundary layer structure and evolution have been observed, and for preconvective environments MYNN was found to have a superior depiction of temperature and moisture profiles. This study evaluates the 24-h forecast dryline positions in the SSEF system PBL members during the period April–June 2010–12 and documents sensitivities of the vertical distribution of thermodynamic and kinematic variables in near-dryline environments. Main results include the following. Despite having superior temperature and moisture profiles, as indicated by a previous study, MYNN was one of the worst-performing PBL members, exhibiting large eastward errors in forecast dryline position. During April–June 2010–11, a dry bias in the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) initial conditions largely contributed to eastward dryline errors in all PBL members. An upgrade to the NAM and assimilation system in October 2011 apparently fixed the dry bias, reducing eastward errors. Large sensitivities of CAPE and low-level shear to the PBL schemes were found, which were largest between 1.0° and 3.0° to the east of drylines. Finally, modifications to YSU to decrease vertical mixing and mitigate its warm and dry bias greatly reduced eastward dryline errors.

scholarly journals Estimating Daytime Planetary Boundary Layer Heights over a Valley from Rawinsonde Observations at a Nearby Airport: An Application to the Page Valley in Virginia, United States

2016 ◽  
Vol 55 (3) ◽  
pp. 791-809 ◽  
Author(s):  
Temple R. Lee ◽  
Stephan F. J. De Wekker
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Weather Forecasting ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Heat Fluxes ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Dispersion Modeling ◽  
Blue Ridge Mountains ◽  
Terrain Following ◽  
Regional Reanalysis

AbstractThe planetary boundary layer (PBL) height is an essential parameter required for many applications, including weather forecasting and dispersion modeling for air quality. Estimates of PBL height are not easily available and often come from twice-daily rawinsonde observations at airports, typically at 0000 and 1200 UTC. Questions often arise regarding the applicability of PBL heights retrieved from these twice-daily observations to surrounding locations. Obtaining this information requires knowledge of the spatial variability of PBL heights. This knowledge is particularly limited in regions with mountainous terrain. The goal of this study is to develop a method for estimating daytime PBL heights in the Page Valley, located in the Blue Ridge Mountains of Virginia. The approach includes using 1) rawinsonde observations from the nearest sounding station [Dulles Airport (IAD)], which is located 90 km northeast of the Page Valley, 2) North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) output, and 3) simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model. When selecting days on which PBL heights from NARR compare well to PBL heights determined from the IAD soundings, it is found that PBL heights are higher (on the order of 200–400 m) over the Page Valley than at IAD and that these differences are typically larger in summer than in winter. WRF simulations indicate that larger sensible heat fluxes and terrain-following characteristics of PBL height both contribute to PBL heights being higher over the Page Valley than at IAD.

Impact of Moisture Transport and Boundary Layer Processes on a Very Severe Cyclonic Storm Using the WRF Model

2019 ◽  
Vol 176 (12) ◽  
pp. 5445-5461 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. S. V. S. Ramakrishna ◽  
Nellipudi Nanaji Rao ◽  
B. Ravi Srinivasa Rao ◽  
P. Srinivasa Rao ◽  
C. V. Srinivas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Moisture Transport ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Cyclonic Storm ◽  
Boundary Layer Processes ◽  
Severe Cyclonic Storm

scholarly journals Impact of environmental moisture on tropical cyclone intensification

2015 ◽  
Vol 15 (11) ◽  
pp. 16111-16139 ◽  
Author(s):  
L. Wu ◽  
H. Su ◽  
R. G. Fovell ◽  
T. J. Dunkerton ◽  
Z. Wang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Inner Core ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Convective Activity ◽  
Dry Air ◽  
Moving Storm ◽  
Lagrangian Boundary ◽  
Moisture Increase

Abstract. The impacts of environmental moisture on the intensification of a tropical cyclone (TC) are investigated in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, with a focus on the azimuthal asymmetry of the moisture impacts. A series of sensitivity experiments with varying moisture perturbations in the environment are conducted and the Marsupial Paradigm framework is employed to understand the different moisture impacts. We find that modification of environmental moisture has insignificant impacts on the storm in this case unless it leads to convective activity in the environment, which deforms the quasi-Lagrangian boundary of the storm. By facilitating convection and precipitation outside the storm, enhanced environmental moisture ahead of the northwestward-moving storm induces a dry air intrusion to the inner core and limits TC intensification. However, increased moisture in the rear quadrants favors intensification by providing more moisture to the inner core and promoting storm symmetry, with primary contributions coming from moisture increase in the boundary layer. The different impacts of environmental moisture on TC intensification are governed by the relative locations of moisture perturbations and their interactions with the storm Lagrangian structure.

scholarly journals Assessing the Potential of a Long-Term Climate Forecast for Cuba Using the WRF Model

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Lourdes Álvarez-Escudero ◽  
Yandy G. Mayor ◽  
Israel Borrajero-Montejo ◽  
Arnoldo Bezanilla-Morlot
Keyword(s):  
Mesoscale Model ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Reanalysis Data ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Tropical Storms ◽  
Precipitation Regime ◽  
Wide Debate ◽  
One Year ◽  
Cumulative Precipitation

Seasonal climatic prediction studies are a matter of wide debate all over the world. Cuba, a mainly agricultural nation, should greatly benefit from the knowledge, which is available months in advance of the precipitation regime and allows for the proper management of water resources. In this work, a series of six experiments were made with a mesoscale model WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting Model) that produced a 15-month forecast for each month of cumulative precipitation starting at two dates, and for three non-consecutive years with different meteorological characteristics: one dry year (2004), one year that started dry and turned rainy (2005), and one year where several tropical storms occurred (2008). ERA-Interim reanalysis data were used for the initial and border conditions and experiments started 1 month before the beginning of the rainy and the dry seasons, respectively. In a general sense, the experience of using WRF indicated that it was a valid resource for seasonal forecast, since the results obtained were in the same range as those reported by the literature for similar cases. Several limitations were revealed by the results: the forecasts underestimated the monthly cumulative precipitation figures, tropical storms entering through the borders sometimes followed courses different from the real courses inside the working domain, storms that developed inside the domain were not reproduced by WRF, and differences in initial conditions led to significantly different forecasts for the corresponding time steps (nonlinearity). Changing the model parameterizations and initial conditions of the ensemble forecast experiments was recommended.

scholarly journals Effects of Boundary Layer Vertical Mixing on the Evolution of Hurricanes over Land

2017 ◽  
Vol 145 (6) ◽  
pp. 2343-2361 ◽  
Author(s):  
Feimin Zhang ◽  
Zhaoxia Pu ◽  
Chenghai Wang
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Potential Temperature ◽  
Vertical Mixing ◽  
Vertical Wind Shear ◽  
Vertical Gradient ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Virtual Potential Temperature ◽  
Dynamic Structures ◽  
Hurricane Boundary Layer

Abstract After a hurricane makes landfall, its evolution is strongly influenced by its interaction with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) over land. In this study, a series of numerical experiments are performed to examine the effects of boundary layer vertical mixing on hurricane simulations over land using a research version of the NCEP Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting (HWRF) Model with three landfalling hurricane cases. It is found that vertical mixing in the PBL has a strong influence on the simulated hurricane evolution. Specifically, strong vertical mixing has a positive impact on numerical simulations of hurricanes over land, with better track, intensity, synoptic flow, and precipitation simulations. In contrast, weak vertical mixing leads to the strong hurricanes over land. Diagnoses of the thermodynamic and dynamic structures of hurricane vortices further suggest that the strong vertical mixing in the PBL could cause a decrease in the vertical wind shear and an increase in the vertical gradient of virtual potential temperature. As a consequence, these changes destroy the turbulence kinetic energy in the hurricane boundary layer and thus stabilize the hurricane boundary layer and limit its maintenance over land.

Impact of Soil Moisture Initialization on Temperature Extreme Detection in the context of Regional Climate Modeling

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Matilde García-Valdecasas Ojeda ◽  
Juan José Rosa-Cánovas ◽  
Emilio Romero-Jiménez ◽  
Patricio Yeste ◽  
Sonia R. Gámiz-Fortis ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Soil Moisture ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Climate Modeling ◽  
Regional Climate ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Regional Climate Modeling ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Temperature Extremes ◽  
Temperature Extreme ◽  
The Impact

<p>Land surface-related processes play an essential role in the climate conditions at a regional scale. In this study, the impact of soil moisture (SM) initialization on regional climate modeling has been explored by using a dynamical downscaling experiment. To this end, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model was used to generate a set of high-resolution climate simulations driven by the ERA-Interim reanalysis for a period from 1989 to 2009. As the spatial configuration, two one-way nested domains were used, with the finer domain being centered over the Iberian Peninsula (IP) at a spatial resolution of about 10 km, and nested over a coarser domain that covers the Euro-CORDEX region at 50 km of spatial resolution.</p><p>The sensitivity experiment consisted of two control runs (CTRL) performed using as SM initial conditions those provided by ERA-Interim, and initialized for two different dates times (January and June). Additionally, another set of runs was completed driven by the same climate data but using as initial conditions prescribed SM under wet and dry scenarios.</p><p>The study is based on assessing the WRF performance by comparing the CTRL simulations with those performed with the different prescribed SM, and also, comparing them with the observations from the Spanish Temperature At Daily scale (STEAD) dataset. In this sense, we used two temperature extreme indices within the framework of decadal predictions: the warm spell index (WSDI) and the daily temperature range (DTR).</p><p>These results provide valuable information about the impact of the SM initial conditions on the ability of the WRF model to detect temperature extremes, and how long these affect the regional climate in this region. Additionally, these results may provide a source of knowledge about the mechanisms involved in the occurrence of extreme events such as heatwaves, which are expected to increase in frequency, duration, and magnitude under the context of climate change.</p><p><strong>Keywords</strong>: soil moisture initial conditions, temperature extremes, regional climate, Weather Research and Forecasting model</p><p>Acknowledgments: This work has been financed by the project CGL2017-89836-R (MINECO-Spain, FEDER). The WRF simulations were performed in the Picasso Supercomputer at the University of Málaga, a member of the Spanish Supercomputing Network.</p>

scholarly journals Comparison of Convective Boundary Layer Velocity Spectra Retrieved from Large- Eddy-Simulation and Weather Research and Forecasting Model Data

2014 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 377-394 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremy A. Gibbs ◽  
Evgeni Fedorovich
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Convective Boundary Layer ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Velocity Fields ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Convective Boundary ◽  
Eddy Simulation ◽  
Large Eddy ◽  
Velocity Spectra

AbstractAs computing capabilities expand, operational and research environments are moving toward the use of finescale atmospheric numerical models. These models are attractive for users who seek an accurate description of small-scale turbulent motions. One such numerical tool is the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, which has been extensively used in synoptic-scale and mesoscale studies. As finer-resolution simulations become more desirable, it remains a question whether the model features originally designed for the simulation of larger-scale atmospheric flows will translate to adequate reproductions of small-scale motions. In this study, turbulent flow in the dry atmospheric convective boundary layer (CBL) is simulated using a conventional large-eddy-simulation (LES) code and the WRF model applied in an LES mode. The two simulation configurations use almost identical numerical grids and are initialized with the same idealized vertical profiles of wind velocity, temperature, and moisture. The respective CBL forcings are set equal and held constant. The effects of the CBL wind shear and of the varying grid spacings are investigated. Horizontal slices of velocity fields are analyzed to enable a comparison of CBL flow patterns obtained with each simulation method. Two-dimensional velocity spectra are used to characterize the planar turbulence structure. One-dimensional velocity spectra are also calculated. Results show that the WRF model tends to attribute slightly more energy to larger-scale flow structures as compared with the CBL structures reproduced by the conventional LES. Consequently, the WRF model reproduces relatively less spatial variability of the velocity fields. Spectra from the WRF model also feature narrower inertial spectral subranges and indicate enhanced damping of turbulence on small scales.

Initial Condition Sensitivity of Western Pacific Extratropical Transitions Determined Using Ensemble-Based Sensitivity Analysis

2009 ◽  
Vol 137 (10) ◽  
pp. 3388-3406 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ryan D. Torn ◽  
Gregory J. Hakim
Keyword(s):  
Sensitivity Analysis ◽  
Tropical Cyclone ◽  
Initial Conditions ◽  
Forecast Error ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Initial Condition ◽  
Ensemble Forecasts ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract An ensemble Kalman filter based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is used to generate ensemble analyses and forecasts for the extratropical transition (ET) events associated with Typhoons Tokage (2004) and Nabi (2005). Ensemble sensitivity analysis is then used to evaluate the relationship between forecast errors and initial condition errors at the onset of transition, and to objectively determine the observations having the largest impact on forecasts of these storms. Observations from rawinsondes, surface stations, aircraft, cloud winds, and cyclone best-track position are assimilated every 6 h for a period before, during, and after transition. Ensemble forecasts initialized at the onset of transition exhibit skill similar to the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) forecast and to a WRF forecast initialized from the GFS analysis. WRF ensemble forecasts of Tokage (Nabi) are characterized by relatively large (small) ensemble variance and greater (smaller) sensitivity to the initial conditions. In both cases, the 48-h forecast of cyclone minimum SLP and the RMS forecast error in SLP are most sensitive to the tropical cyclone position and to midlatitude troughs that interact with the tropical cyclone during ET. Diagnostic perturbations added to the initial conditions based on ensemble sensitivity reduce the error in the storm minimum SLP forecast by 50%. Observation impact calculations indicate that assimilating approximately 40 observations in regions of greatest initial condition sensitivity produces a large, statistically significant impact on the 48-h cyclone minimum SLP forecast. For the Tokage forecast, assimilating the single highest impact observation, an upper-tropospheric zonal wind observation from a Mongolian rawinsonde, yields 48-h forecast perturbations in excess of 10 hPa and 60 m in SLP and 500-hPa height, respectively.

scholarly journals Impacts of the Lowest Model Level Height on the Performance of Planetary Boundary Layer Parameterizations

2012 ◽  
Vol 140 (2) ◽  
pp. 664-682 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hyeyum Hailey Shin ◽  
Song-You Hong ◽  
Jimy Dudhia
Keyword(s):  
Boundary Layer ◽  
Surface Layer ◽  
Planetary Boundary Layer ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Wrf Model ◽  
Weather Research And Forecasting ◽  
Implicit Assumption ◽  
Convective Model ◽  
Local Scheme ◽  
Level Height

The lowest model level height z1 is important in atmospheric numerical models, since surface layer similarity is applied to the height in most of the models. This indicates an implicit assumption that z1 is within the surface layer. In this study, impacts of z1 on the performance of planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterizations are investigated. Three conceptually different schemes in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model are tested for one complete diurnal cycle: the nonlocal, first-order Yonsei University (YSU) and Asymmetric Convective Model version 2 (ACM2) schemes and the local, 1.5-order Mellor–Yamada–Janjić (MYJ) scheme. Surface variables are sensitive to z1 in daytime when z1 is below 12 m, even though the height is within the surface layer. Meanwhile during nighttime, the variables are systematically altered as z1 becomes shallower from 40 m. PBL structures show the sensitivity in the similar manner, but weaker. The order of sensitivity among the three schemes is YSU, ACM2, and MYJ. The significant sensitivity of the YSU parameterization comes from the PBL height calculation. This is considerably alleviated by excluding the thermal excess term in determining the PBL height when z1 is within the surface layer. The factor that specifies the ratio of nonlocal transport to total mixing is critical to the sensitivity of the ACM2 scheme. The MYJ scheme has no systematic sensitivity, since it is a local scheme. It is also noted that a numerical instability appears accompanying the unrealistic PBL structures when the grid spacing in the surface layer suddenly jumps.

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