Forecasting under Uncertainty: How Network Composition Shapes Future-Oriented Cognition

2021 ◽  
Vol 697 (1) ◽  
pp. 99-119
Author(s):  
Ilka Vari-Lavoisier
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Process ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Sociodemographic Characteristics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Delphi Methodology ◽  
Administrative Records ◽  
Contemporary Politics ◽  
Migratory Background ◽  
Network Composition

Future migration is central to contemporary politics, but we know little of how citizens and policy-makers perceive and predict migratory trends. I analyze migration forecasting in a representative sample of the population of France, using survey data and administrative records to document differences in the accuracy of forecasting among groups of individuals. The article takes an interdisciplinary approach to future-oriented thinking, conceiving it as a distributed cognitive process, and showing that educational attainment and migratory background shape one’s ability to predict short-term trends. My analysis stresses the importance of accounting for sociodemographic characteristics and social networks in forecasting: I show that social diversity can improve predictions and extend studies based on the Delphi methodology by discussing the relevant expertise to forecast in different realms.

scholarly journals The Role of Risk Preferences in Responses to Messaging About COVID-19 Vaccine Take-Up

2021 ◽  
pp. 194855062199962
Author(s):  
Jennifer S. Trueblood ◽  
Abigail B. Sussman ◽  
Daniel O’Leary
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Risk Preferences ◽  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Flu Vaccine ◽  
Nationally Representative

Development of an effective COVID-19 vaccine is widely considered as one of the best paths to ending the current health crisis. While the ability to distribute a vaccine in the short-term remains uncertain, the availability of a vaccine alone will not be sufficient to stop disease spread. Instead, policy makers will need to overcome the additional hurdle of rapid widespread adoption. In a large-scale nationally representative survey ( N = 34,200), the current work identifies monetary risk preferences as a correlate of take-up of an anticipated COVID-19 vaccine. A complementary experiment ( N = 1,003) leverages this insight to create effective messaging encouraging vaccine take-up. Individual differences in risk preferences moderate responses to messaging that provides benchmarks for vaccine efficacy (by comparing it to the flu vaccine), while messaging that describes pro-social benefits of vaccination (specifically herd immunity) speeds vaccine take-up irrespective of risk preferences. Findings suggest that policy makers should consider risk preferences when targeting vaccine-related communications.

scholarly journals Nature and the City: changes for the first urban century in the United States

Ciudades ◽  
2017 ◽  
pp. 13
Author(s):  
Frederick R. Steiner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Urban Ecology ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Urban Ecosystems ◽  
The United States ◽  
Urban Systems ◽  
New Regionalism ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Landscape Urbanism ◽  
The City

This panoramic view shows how are focused today the relationships between Nature and the City by research scholars and practitioners in North America. In the American context of an “endless city”, it develops four key ideas for a better approach to urban ecosystems: urban ecology, sustainability, new regionalism and landscape urbanism. Urban ecology has emerged as an interdisciplinary approach for understanding the “drivers, patterns, processes, and outcomes” associated with urban and urbanizing landscapes. With the leadership of several American cities, as New York City, Chicago, Seattle and Portland, urban greening efforts based on principles of sustainability are developed. The new perspectives on regionalism are evident in different efforts associated with the megaregion/megapolitan concept: a new geographic unit of analysis and a new scale for planning. This new regionalism represents a movement led by architects and planners involving geographers, demographers, and policy makers. Finally, landscape urbanism is a more design-based approach. Instead of viewing nature in the city, we have begun to understand the ecology of cities: the urban systems are ecosystems. As a result, “nature cannot be used as exterior decoration, but rather as integral to the health and resiliency of human settlement”.

Adding Electric Vehicle Modeling Capability to an Agent-Based Transport Simulation

2014 ◽  
pp. 282-318 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashid A. Waraich ◽  
Gil Georges ◽  
Matthias D. Galus ◽  
Kay W. Axhausen
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Vehicle Modeling ◽  
Electricity Network ◽  
Renewable Electricity Generation

Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles are envisioned by many as a way to reduce CO2 traffic emissions, support the integration of renewable electricity generation, and increase energy security. Electric vehicle modeling is an active field of research, especially with regards to assessing the impact of electric vehicles on the electricity network. However, as highlighted in this chapter, there is a lack of capability for detailed electricity demand and supply modeling. One reason for this, as pointed out in this chapter, is that such modeling requires an interdisciplinary approach and a possibility to reuse and integrate existing models. In order to solve this problem, a framework for electric vehicle modeling is presented, which provides strong capabilities for detailed electricity demand modeling. It is built on an agent-based travel demand and traffic simulation. A case study for the city of Zurich is presented, which highlights the capabilities of the framework to uncover possible bottlenecks in the electricity network and detailed fleet simulation for CO2 emission calculations, and thus its power to support policy makers in taking decisions.

Adding Electric Vehicle Modeling Capability to an Agent-Based Transport Simulation

2015 ◽  
pp. 1563-1600 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rashid A. Waraich ◽  
Gil Georges ◽  
Matthias D. Galus ◽  
Kay W. Axhausen
Keyword(s):  
Electric Vehicle ◽  
Electric Vehicles ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Electricity Demand ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Vehicle Modeling ◽  
Electricity Network ◽  
Renewable Electricity Generation

Battery-electric and plug-in hybrid-electric vehicles are envisioned by many as a way to reduce CO2 traffic emissions, support the integration of renewable electricity generation, and increase energy security. Electric vehicle modeling is an active field of research, especially with regards to assessing the impact of electric vehicles on the electricity network. However, as highlighted in this chapter, there is a lack of capability for detailed electricity demand and supply modeling. One reason for this, as pointed out in this chapter, is that such modeling requires an interdisciplinary approach and a possibility to reuse and integrate existing models. In order to solve this problem, a framework for electric vehicle modeling is presented, which provides strong capabilities for detailed electricity demand modeling. It is built on an agent-based travel demand and traffic simulation. A case study for the city of Zurich is presented, which highlights the capabilities of the framework to uncover possible bottlenecks in the electricity network and detailed fleet simulation for CO2 emission calculations, and thus its power to support policy makers in taking decisions.

Employment and substitution effects of raising the statutory retirement age in France

2019 ◽  
Vol 19 (3) ◽  
pp. 293-308 ◽  
Author(s):  
Simon Rabaté ◽  
Julie Rochut
Keyword(s):  
Pension System ◽  
Disability Insurance ◽  
Administrative Database ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Retirement Age ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Pension Systems ◽  
Short Term Evaluation ◽  
Term Evaluation

AbstractIncreasing the minimum retirement age is a widespread option chosen by policy makers to reduce spending in financially constrained public pension systems. Yet, the effectiveness of such a reform strongly depends on the ability of individuals to postpone their withdrawal from the labor force. In this paper, we study the immediate impact of the 2010 reform of the French pension system by carrying out a short-term evaluation on the increase of the statutory eligibility age from 60 to 61. We use a differences-in-differences methodology, comparing the trajectories from work to retirement for succeeding generations facing a different statutory age. Using a detailed social security administrative database, we provide a global assessment of the effects of the reform, accounting for the potential substitution effects from old-age insurance toward unemployment, sickness or disability insurance schemes. Our findings suggest that despite a sizable effect on the employment rate, the reform also strongly increased unemployment and disability rates.

scholarly journals Psychiatric intensive care and low secure units: where are we now?

2008 ◽  
Vol 32 (12) ◽  
pp. 441-443 ◽  
Author(s):  
M. Dominic Beer
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Intensive Care Units ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Term Care ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
General Mental Health ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Patient Groups

SummaryThe last decade has seen clinicians and policy makers develop psychiatric intensive care units and low secure units from the so-called ‘special care wards’ of the 1980s and 1990s. Psychiatric intensive care units are for short-term care, while low secure units are for care for up to about 2 years. Department of Health standards have been set for these units. A national survey has shown that there are two main patient groups in the low secure units: patients on forensic sections coming down from medium secure units and those on civil sections who are transferred from general psychiatric facilities. Recent clinical opinion has emphasised the important role both psychiatric intensive care units and low secure units play in providing a bridge between forensic and general mental health services.

Where now for equity and effectiveness policy?

2018 ◽  
pp. 205-214
Author(s):  
Stephen Gorard
Keyword(s):  
Education Policy ◽  
Education System ◽  
Child Poverty ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Root Cause ◽  
Specific Policy ◽  
Policy Proposals ◽  
Effective Education

This chapter considers solutions for a more effective education policy. Education mostly appears to reflect society, which suggests that the root cause of inequality is at least partly not educational. Education policy cannot be expected to solve issues such as child poverty alone, in the short term, or even at all. This means that education policy has to be humbler, but it still has important roles to play — in ensuring that inequalities are not worsened by the education system, and by promoting structures and interventions that can ‘compensate for society’, to some extent. In this light, this chapter provides examples of specific policy proposals, considers where policy-makers have erred, and shows how policy can work with research.

Who Is Listening? When Scholars Think They Are Talking to Congress

2014 ◽  
Vol 657 (1) ◽  
pp. 265-273
Author(s):  
Kenneth Prewitt
Keyword(s):  
Public Sphere ◽  
Science Policy ◽  
The Political ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Public Funds ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Public Sphere

The editors asked for my view on whether, in the current political climate, the recommendations in this volume of The ANNALS are likely to be heeded. The question that precedes this one is whether the volume’s contributors understand why policy-makers make use of science at all. “No” is the obvious answer, though I see this not as a failure particular to their effort but rather as a broader failure of social science. Getting the science right is a necessary but not sufficient step in getting it used. Social scientists have not investigated the use of science in policy in a serious way. They must if science is to have influence in the public sphere. I also comment on the political climate, unhelpfully described by many worried observers as antiscience. It is more informative to say that there is a Congress-led effort to push science policy and federal expenditures toward short-term and narrow national goals. This is harmful to science and consequently to the nation, and scientists should explain why. But they must also respect that science policy and setting priorities for spending public funds are congressional responsibilities.

Overlooked, Overworked: Women's Unpaid and Paid Work in the Health Services' “Cost Crisis”

1988 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
pp. 119-137 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nona Y. Glazer
Keyword(s):  
Health Services ◽  
Labor Process ◽  
Paid Work ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Policy Makers ◽  
Service Workers ◽  
Wage Bill ◽  
Sick People ◽  
The Family ◽  
Hospital Stays

Dewaging shifts work from the marketplace to the household. The shift seems a short-term strategy used by capitalists, governmental policy-makers, and managers to reduce the wage bill for service workers in such areas as schooling, retailing, health services, and banking. In health services, the expansion of women's unpaid nursing in the household and a new labor process among paid nursing workers are necessary for new corporate and federal cost-containment strategies. Registered and licensed nurses, nurse's assistants and aides see their jobs eliminated, expanded, or moved from one work site to another. Increased use of outpatient clinics, in-and-out hospital stays of less than one day, and shortened hospital stays mean sick people in their homes, not hospitals. The work of caring for the sick does not disappear, however, though people may go without. Much nursing work is shifted to patients and to their families, and even to friends and neighbors. Within the family, women's unwaged work is central, supporting the new labor process among paid nurses. Wives, mothers, daughters, friends, etc., do the work once done for pay in clinics and hospitals.

Notes on the rural landscape of central Tyrrhenian Italy in the 6th-5th c. b.c. and its social significance

2002 ◽  
Vol 15 ◽  
pp. 247-260 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gabriele Cifani
Keyword(s):  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Rural Landscape ◽  
Environmental Archaeology ◽  
Social Significance ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Rural Landscapes ◽  
Landscape Studies ◽  
Art Historians ◽  
Two Sides

During the last few decades most landscape archaeologists have noted the diffusion and the demographic importance of the rural landscapes of Archaic Etruscan communities and have tried to define their significance within Etruscan society in the same way as others have attempted to evaluate the political significance of the Greek rural landscape. Recent research on Italian landscapes has led to a great increase in the available data regarding the different paths of development for the various communities, allowing them to be outlined and compared.The growing dichotomy between the studies of field archaeologists and historians or art-historians may appear to be a problem. Landscape studies in Italy have been dominated since the 1950s by an Anglocentric tradition of economic and environmental archaeology, with important work focusing on long-term phenomena. Historians and art-historians, on the other hand, have tried to define an interdisciplinary approach involving the use of several sources of evidence (art-historical, epigraphic, literary) and focusing on historical events and medium-or short-term phenomena. Yet field and historical archaeology are simply two sides of the same coin, and should be viewed as complementary rather than incompatible approaches to understanding the comolex evidence of the Dre-Roman cultures.

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