How Much Does Money Matter?

2000 ◽  
Vol 33 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-57 ◽  
Author(s):  
GARY W. COX ◽  
MICHAEL F. THIES

Japanese elections are notorious for the money that flows between contributors, politicians, and voters. To date, however, nobody has estimated statistically the impact of this money on electoral outcomes. Students of American politics have discovered that this question is difficult to answer because, although performance may depend on spending, spending may also depend on expected performance. In this article, the authors specify a two-stage least squares model that explains the vote shares of Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) candidates as a function of their own spending, spending by other candidates, and a battery of control variables. The multiple-candidate nature of Japanese elections means that district-level demographic variables are largely unrelated to any particular LDP candidate's vote share, so that these variables can be used to create instruments for campaign spending. The authors find that the marginal dollar of campaign spending buys the spender a great deal more in Japan than is true in the United States.

2012 ◽  
Vol 7 (1-2) ◽  
pp. 269-294
Author(s):  
Sumiyo Nishizaki

In this article, I analyze the Japan-Middle East-U.S. triangle relationship. Japan’s Middle East policies, the author contends, have been influenced by its energy needs and relationship with the United States. Fully aware of its status as a country with hardly any energy resources, Japan has engaged in energy diplomacy and investment in oil fields in the Middle East. This article describes how, despite pursuing an energy strategy largely independent of the United States, Japan has constantly needed to take into account its relationship with the Americans, and Japan has slowly shifted toward more frequent support for American policy especially after the Gulf War in 1990. At the same time, Japan’s Middle East policies have been influenced by its domestic politics. For example, former Prime Minister Koizumi’s post-September 11 plan to let Japan’s military forces play a more prominent role in the War on Terror was crushed by his Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). This article explains that LDP politicians were afraid that supporting the war would undermine Japan’s economic interests in the Muslim world and how the Democratic Party of Japan which took office this September has attempted to pursue a more independent position in its relations with the United States. This article also explores the shifts in Japan’s Middle East policies under the new administration and their implications on US-Japan relations.


Significance Kishida's factional background within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suggests a dovish orientation towards China. Impacts A lacklustre LDP result in the general election would empower its junior coalition partner, the Komeito, to resist bold security reforms. Larger coast guard vessels and drones will enhance Japan's maritime security. Japan may decide to host intermediate-range missiles co-developed with the United States, to be deployed in Okinawa.


2016 ◽  
Vol 46 (1) ◽  
pp. 34-49
Author(s):  
Phyllis Bennis

This essay examines the discourse on Palestine/Israel in the 2016 U.S. presidential campaign, charting the impact of the Palestine rights movement on the domestic U.S. policy debate. Policy analyst, author, and long-time activist Phyllis Bennis notes the sea change within the Democratic Party evident in the unprecedented debate on the issue outside traditionally liberal Zionist boundaries. The final Democratic platform was as pro-Israel and anti-Palestinian as any in history, but the process of getting there was revolutionary in no small part, Bennis argues, due to the grassroots campaign of veteran U.S. senator Bernie Sanders. Bennis also discusses the Republican platform on Israel/Palestine, outlining the positions of the final three Republican contenders. Although she is clear about the current weakness of the broad antiwar movement in the United States, Bennis celebrates its Palestinian rights component and its focus on education and BDS to challenge the general public's “ignorance” on Israel/Palestine.


2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (2) ◽  
pp. 240-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Yu Belokonev ◽  
Sergey A Vodopetov ◽  
Vladimir G Ivanov

The authors analyze the impact of migration from Venezuela on the domestic policy of the United States. According to the data for 2017, more than 11 percent of immigrants to the United States from South America are Venezuelans, and the same figure for 2016 was close to 9 percent, which indicates a fairly sharp increase in the number of refugees. An active influx of Venezuelans may be one of the key factors in the future US 2020 presidential elections. The largest diaspora of Venezuelans in the United States lives in Florida, which will be one of the key states in the future presidential election campaign. In connection with the potential loss of Republican’s positions in such an important region as Florida, it is necessary for the administration of Donald Trump to reconsider its policy in the state. In addition, representatives of the Democratic party are greatly interested in increasing influence in the state. Thus, the authors conclude that the administration of Donald Trump generally benefits from the crisis in Venezuela, as it will help to carry out a number of domestic political reforms aimed at economic protectionism and tackling of immigration.


Subject Kremlin strategy for the 2018 presidential election. Significance With one year to go before the 2018 presidential election, the Kremlin strategy that will frame the process is starting to take shape. The nature of Vladimir Putin’s campaign has a bearing on his fourth term, during which he must either identify a successor or engineer an extension of his tenure beyond 2024. Impacts Putin will rally populist sentiment on the back of foreign policy successes in Crimea and Syria. A possible rapprochement with the United States would restrict the national narrative of ‘Russia encircled’. The Liberal Democratic Party and the Communist candidates will criticise the government but will not run opposition campaigns.


2007 ◽  
Vol 50 (3) ◽  
pp. 593-622 ◽  
Author(s):  
EDMUND ROGERS

ABSTRACTHistorians of the debate over free trade and tariffs in Britain during the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries have not taken adequate account of the impact of the protectionist United States. The article first examines how American protectionism influenced the cause of imperial preference. It then looks at how both sides in the fiscal debate used the American economic experience to bolster their cases. Finally, it is demonstrated that the economic success and liberal democratic character of America compelled free traders to attack the American example on a moral and political basis.


Subject The results of the 2020 National Assembly election in South Korea. Significance President Moon Jae-in’s liberal Democratic Party won an unprecedented 180 out of 300 seats in the National Assembly in the four-yearly parliamentary election on April 15. Despite COVID-19, voting was smooth and turnout reached 66.2%, a 26-year high. The conservative opposition leader lost his seat and has resigned. A prominent North Korean defector won a constituency seat for the first time. Impacts Unless the next two years are catastrophic, this win augurs well for the Democrats to retain the presidency after Moon’s term ends in 2022. Even if a conservative retakes the presidency in 2022, their first two years will be thwarted by a parliament now overwhelmingly liberal. Moon will be emboldened to resist US demands on paying for US troops, take a hard line towards Tokyo and pursue peace with Pyongyang. In economic policy, the priority will be to minimise the impact of COVID-19 on GDP, exports and living standards.


Author(s):  
A.V. Taigildin ◽  

The impact of the industrial revolution in the United States on the relationship between its two economic and political regions – the North and the South – was discussed. In the first half of the 19th century, the interests of some regions diverged as the country proceeded with its economic development. This turned out to be a primary cause of contradictions between the North and the South that led to the Civil War of 1861–1865. The development of trade, industry, and transport system during the period under consideration was analyzed. Their role in the conflict was revealed. Special attention was paid to the land question, around which the disputes among industrialists of the North, farmers, and plantation owners of the South revolved. The problem of slavery as a reason for the disagreement between the two regions was emphasized. Based on the literature data, it was shown that the issue of slavery was a minor one. It was used to merely provide cover for the actual economic problems. The conclusion was made that the industrial revolution in the United States triggered political changes, which resulted in the formation of the Republican Party and in the split within the Democratic Party.


Asian Survey ◽  
2007 ◽  
Vol 47 (3) ◽  
pp. 415-433 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dennis Patterson ◽  
Ko Maeda

This article explores the impact of prime ministerial popularity on the changing electoral fortunes of Japan's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). We show that the popularity of the Japanese prime minister exerted a modest but definite impact on aggregate vote shares captured by the LDP throughout the postwar period.


2003 ◽  
Vol 33 (3) ◽  
pp. 469-490 ◽  
Author(s):  
STEVEN R. REED ◽  
ETHAN SCHEINER

Examining the 1993 split of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan offers an opportunity to gain greater insight into the impact of the various incentives that influence the behaviour of politicians. Surprisingly, previous analyses of the LDP split have been able to demonstrate only weak evidence of any electoral connection driving politicians' decisions. However, by also examining the role of policy preferences (support for reform) and utilizing interaction terms, our analysis takes into account the fact that politicians at different stages in their careers and facing different sorts of electorates respond to electoral factors in very different ways. Our findings thus confirm the importance of the electoral connection. We are also able to add that a variety of other incentives also shape political behaviour and that politicians do not necessarily all respond to similar stimuli in the same way.


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