scholarly journals Legacies of Violence

2017 ◽  
Vol 62 (9) ◽  
pp. 1991-2016 ◽  
Author(s):  
Corinne Bara
Keyword(s):  
Civil Wars ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Diffusion Effect ◽  
Small Arms ◽  
Arms Trade ◽  
At Home

Civil wars have a tendency to spread across borders. In several instances of conflict diffusion, however, conflicts spread well after their cessation at home. Whereas existing diffusion research has not attached much importance to this observation, I argue that these conflicts are instances of a broader pattern of postconflict diffusion. Wars are particularly prone to spread after termination because the end of fighting generates a surplus of weapons, combatants, and rebel leaders whose fortunes are tied to the continuation of violence. Some of these resources circulate throughout the region via the small arms trade and through transnational rebel networks, making this a time at which it should be easier for nonstate groups in the neighborhood to build a capable rebel army. The results from two complementary statistical tests on global conflict data provide strong support for such a postconflict diffusion effect.

scholarly journals Hubungan Kebiasaan Merokok di dalam Rumah dengan Kejadian Pneumonia pada Anak Usia 1-4 Tahun

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 108
Author(s):  
Nuniek Tri Wahyuni ◽  
Heni Fa'riatul Aeni ◽  
Muhammad Azizudin
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Smoking Habit ◽  
Family Members ◽  
Severe Pneumonia ◽  
Smoking Habits ◽  
P Value ◽  
Chi Square ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Presence Of People ◽  
At Home

ABSTRAK Pneumonia merupakan penyebab dari 15% kematian pada balita. Keberadaan anggota keluarga yang merokok di dalam rumah merupakan salah satu faktor penyebab terjadinya masalah kesehatan pada sistem pernafasan khususnya Pneumonia pada anak. Tujuan penelitian ini adalah untuk mengetahui hubungan kebiasaan merokok di dalam rumah dengan kejadian Pneumonia pada anak usia 1-4 tahun. Jenis penelitian ini adalah penelitian analitik dengan pendekatan cross sectional. Populasi penelitian ini adalah anggota keluarga yang memiliki anak usia 1-4 tahun yang terkena Pneumonia sebanyak 110 dengan jumlah sampel 86 responden menggunakan accidental sampling. Pengumpulan data diperoleh dengan menggunakan kuesioner dan dianalisis secara statistik menggunakan uji Chi Square. Berdasarkan hasil uji statistik dari 86 responden yang memiliki keberadaan orang yang merokok di dalam rumah sebanyak 52 orang (60,47%) sedangkan keberadaan orang yang tidak merokok di dalam rumah sebanyak 34 (39,53%).  Responden dengan kategori mengalami Pneumonia sebanyak 75 orang (87,21%), yang mengalami Pneumonia berat sebanyak 7 orang  (8,14%) dan yang mengalami Pneumonia sangat berat sebanyak 4 orang (4,63 %) dengan  P value = 0,016 (< 0,05). Terdapat hubungan kebiasaan merokok  dengan kejadian Pneumonia pada anak usia 1-4 tahun.    Kata kunci  : kebiasaan merokok; pneumonia; anak  CORRELATION BETWEEN SMOKING HABITS AT HOME AND THE INCIDENT OF PNEUMONIA AMONG CHILDREN AGED 1-4 YEARS  ABSTRACT Pneumonia is the cause of 15% of deaths in children under five. The presence of family members who smoke in the house is one of the causal factors of health problems in the respiratory system, especially pneumonia among children. This study was aimed to determine the correlation between smoking habits at home and the incidence of pneumonia among children aged 1-4 years. This was an analytic study with cross sectional approach. The population of this study were family members who had children aged 1-4 years with pneumonia as many as 110 people. The number of samples was taken through the Slovin sample size formula totally 86 respondents and the determination of the samples used Accidental Sampling. Data were collected using a questionnaire and analyzed statistically using the Chis Square test. Based on the results of statistical tests, it was revealed that of 86 respondents, 52 people (60.47%) had the presence of people who smoked in the house while 34 (39.53%) did not have had the presence of people who smoked in the house.  75 respondents (87.21%) had pneumonia, 7 people experienced severe pneumonia (8.14%) and 4 people experienced very severe pneumonia (4.63%). Chi Square test results obtained a P value=0.016 (<0.05), which meant that there is a relationship between smoking habit at home and the incidence of pneumonia among children aged 1-4 years. Keywords: Smoking habit; pneumonia; children

The Geopolitics of Major Power Interventions in Civil Wars

2020 ◽  
pp. 106591292097691
Author(s):  
Joe Clare ◽  
Vesna Danilovic
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Past Research ◽  
Major Power ◽  
Civil Conflicts ◽  
Major Powers ◽  
Humanitarian Interventions ◽  
Strategic Approach ◽  
The Government

What factors influence third parties to intervene in civil wars? Our focus on major powers, which are disproportionately more likely than other states to intervene in civil conflicts, directs us to the factors that uniquely shape their interests. While our study does not rule out humanitarian interventions by collective security international institutions and individual states, we do not find that humanitarian concerns motivate major powers. We argue and demonstrate that their decisions to intervene are principally motivated by their drive to establish, consolidate, or expand influence in different geopolitical regions. Past research with the strategic approach stressed the importance of an intervener’s prior ties with a civil war state for this decision. Though important, we show the effect of these ties is subordinate to other factors. In our argument, their role is primarily relevant for determining whether an intervener will be on the side of the government or opposition. The key issue of whether major powers are likely to intervene in the first place, however, is contingent on how much the entire region is strategically relevant to warrant intervention. The empirical analysis of civil war interventions over nearly fifty years lends strong support to our theoretical expectations.

The legacy of military dictatorship: Explaining violent crime in democracies

2018 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 404-418 ◽  
Author(s):  
Erica Frantz
Keyword(s):  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Violent Crime ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Military Rule ◽  
Military Dictatorship ◽  
Homicide Rates ◽  
The Military ◽  
Cross National

Violent crime rates have increased dramatically in many parts of the world in recent decades, with homicides now outpacing deaths due to interstate or civil wars. Considerable variations exist across democracies in their violent crime rates, however: different autocratic experiences help explain why this is the case. Democracies emerging from military rule have higher homicide rates because they typically inherit militarized police forces. This creates a dilemma after democratization: allowing the military to remain in the police leads to law enforcement personnel trained in defense rather than policing, but extricating it marginalizes individuals trained in the use of violence. The results of cross-national statistical tests are shown to be consistent with this argument.

scholarly journals Selling Out or Standing Firm? Explaining the Design of Civil War Peace Agreements

2020 ◽  
Vol 64 (2) ◽  
pp. 329-342
Author(s):  
Deniz Cil ◽  
Alyssa K Prorok
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Political Power ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Original Data ◽  
Military Power ◽  
The Public ◽  
Public Benefits ◽  
Peace Agreements ◽  
Settlement Agreements

Abstract When do rebel leaders “sell out” their constituents in the terms of peace by signing agreements that benefit group elites over the rebel constituency, and when do they instead “stand firm,” pushing for settlement terms that benefit the public they claim to represent? This article examines variation in the design of civil war settlement agreements. It argues that constituents, fighters, and rebel elites have different preferences over the terms of peace, and that rebel leaders will push for settlements that reflect the preferences of whichever audience they are most reliant on and accountable to. In particular, leaders of groups that are more civilian-reliant for their military and political power are more likely to sign agreements that favor broad benefits for civilian constituents, while leaders who do not depend on civilian support for their political and military power will sign agreements with fewer public benefits. We test this argument using original data on the design of all final peace agreements reached between 1989 and 2009, and several proxies for the group's level of reliance on civilian supporters. Using a variety of statistical tests and accounting for nonrandom selection into peace agreements, we find strong support for our hypothesis.

International Institutions and the Volatility of International Trade

2008 ◽  
Vol 62 (4) ◽  
pp. 621-652 ◽  
Author(s):  
Edward D. Mansfield ◽  
Eric Reinhardt
Keyword(s):  
International Trade ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Statistical Tests ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Multivariate Statistical ◽  
Trade Shocks ◽  
Past Half Century ◽  
Preferential Trading Arrangements ◽  
Foreign Commerce

During the past half-century, states have established a large number of international trade institutions, both multilateral and regional in scope. The existing literature on this topic emphasizes that these agreements are chiefly designed to liberalize and increase the flow of overseas commerce. Yet such institutions have another function that has been largely ignored by researchers, namely, reducing volatility in trade policy and trade flows. Exposure to global markets increases the vulnerability of a country's output to terms of trade shocks. Governments seek to insulate their economies from such instability through membership in international trade institutions, particularly the World Trade Organization (WTO) and preferential trading arrangements (PTAs). We hypothesize that these institutions reduce the volatility of overseas commerce. We further hypothesize that, because market actors prefer price stability, trade institutions increase the volume of foreign commerce by reducing trade variability. This article conducts the first large-scale, multivariate statistical tests of these two hypotheses, using annual data on exports for all pairs of countries from 1951 through 2001. The tests provide strong support for our arguments. PTAs and the WTO regime significantly reduce export volatility. In so doing, these institutions also increase export levels.

scholarly journals Ethnonationalist Triads: Assessing the Influence of Kin Groups on Civil Wars

2009 ◽  
Vol 61 (3) ◽  
pp. 403-437 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lars-Erik Cederman ◽  
Luc Girardin ◽  
Kristian Skrede Gleditsch
Keyword(s):  
Civil War ◽  
Ethnic Groups ◽  
Civil Wars ◽  
Strong Support ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Quantitative Studies ◽  
Kin Support ◽  
Geocoded Data ◽  
The Empirical Analysis

Although the case-based literature suggests that kin groups are prominent in ethnonationalist conflicts, quantitative studies of civil war onset have both overaggregated and underaggregated the role of ethnicity, by looking at civil war at the country level instead of among specific groups and by treating individual countries as closed units, ignoring groups' transnational links. In this article the authors integrate transnational links into a dyadic perspective on conflict between marginalized ethnic groups and governments. They argue that transnational links can increase the risk of conflict as transnational kin support can facilitate insurgencies and are difficult for governments to target or deter. The empirical analysis, using new geocoded data on ethnic groups on a transnational basis, indicates that the risk of conflict is high when large, excluded ethnic groups have transnational kin in neighboring countries, and it provides strong support for the authors' propositions on the importance of transnational ties in ethnonationalist conflict.

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