Chapter II. The World Economy

1984 ◽  
Vol 108 ◽  
pp. 21-33
Keyword(s):  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Real Output ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

The recovery which had started in the US and Canada around the beginning of 1983 had by the end of the year spread to all the other major countries (and probably most of the smaller ones also). From the second quarter onwards OECD countries' total real output was increasing at an annual rate of some 4-5 per cent.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1985 ◽  
Vol 113 ◽  
pp. 20-30
Keyword(s):  
Industrial Production ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Rate Of Increase ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It now seems clear that there was no more than marginal growth in the overall output of the OECD countries in the first quarter. Exceptionally severe weather in Europe and in some areas of the US partly explains the sharpness of the deceleration, its effects being most clearly seen in a 5 per cent fall in construction. But though growth in the second quarter was almost certainly faster, it seems equally probable that there was no very marked rebound. For the first half of the year as a whole the annual rate of increase in industrial production, for example, was probably of the order of 1 1/2 per cent. This compares with as much as 3 per cent predicted by OECD in mid-April.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1974 ◽  
Vol 70 ◽  
pp. 23-37
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
The United States ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
The Other ◽  
Industrial Countries ◽  
The World ◽  
World Economic ◽  
Economic Position

The world economic position and prospects have worsened further in the last three months. In the United States and Japan, in particular, recessionary conditions are proving to be more marked and more prolonged than we had expected, and it looks as though by the end of the year all the major industrial countries, with the possible exception of France, will have experienced at least one quarter in which output has fallen or at best shown no appreciable rise. The other developed countries have fared better, but we no longer expect there to be any growth of output in the OECD area either in the second half of the year or in the year as a whole. In 1975 the position should be rather better, at least by the second half. We expect OECD countries' aggregate GNP to grow by about 2 per cent year-on-year and nearly 3 per cent between the fourth quarters of 1974 and 1975.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1986 ◽  
Vol 118 ◽  
pp. 18-29
Keyword(s):  
Rapid Growth ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Considerable Improvement ◽  
Terms Of Trade ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Face ◽  
Small Growth ◽  
Trade Sector

After a disappointing first quarter in which, in broad terms, the small growth in output in the OECD area could be attributed wholly to stock movements in the US, the second quarter brought a considerable improvement. Though US stockbuilding was much smaller, OECD countries' total GDP appears to have risen by about 1 per cent, with notably rapid growth in major countries where output had fallen in the first quarter (Germany especially, Japan, France and, on some estimates, Italy). This acceleration, based largely on consumers' expenditure, was moreover achieved in the face of adverse developments in the foreign trade sector, with many non-OECD countries, the oil producers in particular, reducing the volume of their imports to compensate in part for a worsening in their terms of trade.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1988 ◽  
Vol 125 ◽  
pp. 23-39
Author(s):  
R.J. Barrell ◽  
Fiona Eastwood
Keyword(s):  
Central Bank ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Central Bank Intervention ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Us Dollar ◽  
Major Factors ◽  
Better Than

Between June and July the dollar rose by around 5 per cent against the other major currencies, despite central bank intervention to hold the dollar down. There have been two major factors behind this strength. Firstly, the US trade figures improved in April and May and were considerably better than the market had anticipated. This reflected both some reduction in the volume and value of imports and an increase in the level of exports. Sentiment towards the US dollar has also been affected by the strength of growth in the other major industrial economies.

The World Economy

1997 ◽  
Vol 160 ◽  
pp. 36-62
Author(s):  
Ray Barrell ◽  
Julian Morgan ◽  
Nigel Pain ◽  
Florence Hubert
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Growth Rates ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oecd Countries ◽  
Domestic Demand ◽  
Spare Capacity ◽  
Us Economy ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

It is increasingly clear that the world economy has been recovering relatively strongly from a pause in activity at the end of 1995. The recovery has also been relatively well spread around the globe, with Japan displaying the strongest growth amongst the larger economies, in part because of the effects of the depreciation of the yen, but also because government policy was expansionary throughout last year. Although growth rates in Europe appear low in 1996, with Germany and France both recording growth of less than 1½ per cent, growth through the year has generally been strong. It appears there is still some spare capacity in Europe, and hence growth can be expected to strengthen further into 1998, at least within continental Europe. The US economy has been growing at or above capacity for several years; in the fourth quarter of last year output rose by a further 1 per cent, with growth through the year of over 3 per cent. Domestic demand also rose strongly in Canada and Mexico in the latter half of last year. Growth in the NAFTA economies is expected to strengthen in 1997, but to slow into 1998 in the aftermath of moves to tighten monetary policy. Overall, as can be seen from Table 1, we expect a period of above trend growth and low inflation in the majority of the OECD countries.

Chapter II. The World Economy

1985 ◽  
Vol 114 ◽  
pp. 33-45
Keyword(s):  
North America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Western Europe ◽  
Severe Weather ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
Recent Information ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World

More recent information confirms the impression which we formed in August about the course of output in the OECD area in the first half of the year. In the exceptionally severe weather experienced in parts of North America and Western Europe in the first quarter GDP was barely higher than it had been in the final quarter of 1984, and the second brought only a modest rebound. In the first half-year output increased at an annual rate of little more than 2 per cent, compared with about 3½ per cent for the previous six months. Slower growth in the US and stagnation of output in France and Germany were largely responsible.

scholarly journals Probleme der Kooperation zwischen asiatischen und angelsächsisch geprägten Ländern im asiatisch-pazifischen Wirtschaftsraum

1993 ◽  
Vol 23 (90) ◽  
pp. 94-128 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heribert Dieter
Keyword(s):  
Economic Integration ◽  
World Economy ◽  
The Other ◽  
Anglo Saxon ◽  
Asian Countries ◽  
Export Orientation ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
High Degree

Economic Co-operation in the Pacific faces two major obstacles. Firstly, there is no Pacific commumity in an economic, political, cultural or linguistic sense. The region is fragmented. Even the countries participating in APEC show extremely different stages of development and therefore are of greatly differing relevance for the region as well as for the world economy. Secondly, the countries of the Pacific show two types of economic regimes: On thc one hand there are the economics of the successful Asian countries, characterised by a high degree of government intervention and succcssful export orientation. On the other hand the Anglo-Saxon countries of the Pacific, namely the US, Australia and New Zealand, show sluggish growth, declinlng competitiveness and decreasing relevance for the region as weil as for the world economy. These two problems will make Pacific economic co-operation extremely difficult and will have to be considered in any scheme for Pacific economic integration.

The World Economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 184 ◽  
pp. 9-35
Keyword(s):  
Latin America ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Output Growth ◽  
Annual Rate ◽  
China And India ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
The Impact ◽  
World Output

World output growth continues to recover from its trough in 2001, albeit rather hesitantly. The slowdown in output growth in 2001 was largely centred in the OECD, with the US, Japan and Germany all recording growth below 1 per cent. In the last three years growth has been robust in other regions, but particularly in Asia, with China and India growing rapidly. Even Latin America is expected to show some signs of recovery this year after the currency related disruptions it experienced in 2002. It is becoming clear that 2002 saw reasonably strong output growth of 2.8 per cent in aggregate, rising from 2.2 per cent in 2001. Our forecast for 2003 is that the annual rate of output growth in the world will continue to increase, but weakness in a number of countries, including the US, at the end of 2002 suggests that it will not accelerate further into next year. The impact of the realignment of the dollar and the euro will also hold back world growth slightly this year and next. Our forecasts for output growth and inflation along with trade and oil prices are set out in Table 1.

POVERTY TRAPS AND INFERIOR GOODS IN A DYNAMIC HECKSCHER–OHLIN MODEL

2012 ◽  
Vol 17 (6) ◽  
pp. 1227-1251 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eric W. Bond ◽  
Kazumichi Iwasa ◽  
Kazuo Nishimura
Keyword(s):  
Economic Theory ◽  
Steady State ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Steady States ◽  
The Other ◽  
Poverty Traps ◽  
Poverty Trap ◽  
Multiple Steady States ◽  
The World ◽  
State Capital

We extend the dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin model in Bond et al. [Economic Theory(48, 171–204, 2011)] and show that if the labor-intensive good is inferior, then there may exist multiple steady states in autarky and poverty traps can arise. Poverty traps for the world economy, in the form of Pareto-dominated steady states, are also shown to exist. We show that the opening of trade can have the effect of pulling the initially poorer country out of a poverty trap, with both countries having steady state capital stocks exceeding the autarky level. However, trade can also pull an initially richer country into a poverty trap. These possibilities are a sharp contrast with dynamic Heckscher–Ohlin models with normality in consumption, where the country with the larger (smaller) capital stock than the other will reach a steady state where the level of welfare is higher (lower) than in the autarkic steady state.

The World Economy

2003 ◽  
Vol 185 ◽  
pp. 9-16
Keyword(s):  
Latin American ◽  
Euro Area ◽  
World Trade ◽  
World Economy ◽  
Oil Industry ◽  
Private Sector Investment ◽  
Percentage Points ◽  
The Us ◽  
The World ◽  
Dollar Depreciation

The outlook for world growth this year has deteriorated since April, due to a sharp contraction in world trade in the first quarter of the year and failure to sustain the revival in private sector investment seen in the fourth quarter of 2002. We have as a consequence revised our projections for world growth this year down by ¼ percentage point. This reflects sharp downward revisions of ½–¾ percentage points in the Euro Area and Canada, both of whose exchange rates have continued to appreciate in effective terms, while the outlook for the US and Japan is broadly unchanged. Growth in Japan and the Euro Area stagnated in the first half of 2003, with recessions in Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Austria appearing likely. The US and Canada, on the other hand, continued to expand, albeit more slowly than in the second half of 2002. Following two years of exceptional weakness, Latin American growth has started to revive, although Venezuela is still suffering from the 2 month stoppage in the oil industry earlier this year and Argentina has lost competitiveness due to a strong appreciation against the dollar. Growth has slowed in several Asian economies, notably South Korea, but China continues to expand rapidly, spurred by the competitiveness impact of the dollar depreciation and infrastructure preparations for the 2008 Olympics. This has helped sustain export growth from the rest of Asia despite the more widespread slowdown in world trade.

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