Chapter I. The Home Economy

1991 ◽  
Vol 137 ◽  
pp. 7-23
Keyword(s):  
Public Sector ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Public ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
The Current Account

Developments so far this year have been closely in line with the forecasts we published in February and in May. As expected, output fell in the first half of the year and the prospect is still for a slight recovery by the end of the year. As expected, inflation has been falling rapidly, and the prospect is still for a rate under 5 per cent by the end of the year. The current account deficit on the balance of payments is much reduced, whilst the public sector again has a borrowing requirement. With the continued slowdown in activity, unemployment has risen sharply, and it is still expected to continue rising in 1992.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1987 ◽  
Vol 121 ◽  
pp. 6-20
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Peak Level ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Capacity Utilisation ◽  
The Uk ◽  
First Time ◽  
The Current Account

For the first time in more than a decade the question is being asked whether the growth of the UK economy this year may be, in some sense, too rapid. Fears have been expressed of ‘overheating’ leading to a rise in inflation and excessive growth in imports. Comparisons have been made with the ‘boom’ conditions of 1972 and 1973. In our view these fears are exaggerated and the comparisons misleading. Nevertheless some increase in the rate of inflation is to be expected, and the underlying position on the current account of the balance of payments seems already to have moved from surplus into deficit. We now expect the rate of the economy this year to be around 3½ per cent, compared with about 3 per cent in 1986. Thus, if we are correct, the acceleration year on year is very slight, well within the error margins of measurement. This contrasts with 1972 and 1973 when the growth rate averaged 4½ per cent for two years. Moreover unemployment was only about 1 million at the beginning of 1972 and about 1/2 million at the end of 1973 whilst last year it at over 3 million and is not expected to fall as low as 2½ million even next year. Even if inflation next year does rise from about 3½ per cent a year to about 5 per cent, as we expect, this is still not comparable with the rates of 7½ and 9 per cent experienced in 1972 and 1973. The CBI index of capacity utilisation is now not far below its peak level in 1973, but we doubt whether an index of this kind is reliable for comparision between periods so far apart in time.

scholarly journals Implications of the U.S. Current Account Deficit

1989 ◽  
Vol 3 (4) ◽  
pp. 153-165 ◽  
Author(s):  
David H Howard
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
The United States ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The World ◽  
The U.S ◽  
The Current Account

In 1988, the United States recorded a deficit of about $135 billion on the current account of its balance of payments with the rest of the world. This paper presents an analytical framework for thinking about the current account deficit, explores causes of the current account deficit, and discusses the United States as a debtor nation and the issue of sustainability.

scholarly journals Analysis of Current Account Deficit Determinants of Balance of Payments in Fixed and Flexible Exchange Rate Regimes: A Comparative Study in CFA Franc and Non-Franc Zones

2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 447
Author(s):  
Remy Hounsou
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Flexible Exchange Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Current Account Balance ◽  
Domestic Saving ◽  
Franc Zone ◽  
Financial Variables ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

<p><em>This study compares the impact of certain economic and financial variables on the level of the deficit in the current account of the balance of payments of the countries of the Franc zone and certain countries of the non-Franc zone situated south of the Sahara. The empirical results of the study based on panel data models covering the period 1990-2015 indicate that none of the two zones behaves better against the current account deficit of the balance of payments and that no zone is more competitive than the other. Finally, it was clear from our analysis that the variables of gross domestic, saving and the change in the terms of trade better explain the change in the current account balance in the Franc zone, whereas the variables of net foreign transfers and gross domestic saving impact the most the current account deficit in non-CFA zone.</em></p>

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1988 ◽  
Vol 124 ◽  
pp. 7-20
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Business School ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Fourth Quarter ◽  
Conflicting Evidence ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Current Account

The forecasts published by ourselves in February, and by the Treasury and the London Business School in March, showed remarkable unanimity about the prospects for the economy in 1988. We all said that the growth rate year on year would be about 3 per cent, that the rate of inflation would be about 4 per cent by the fourth quarter, and that the current account of the balance of payments would be in deficit by about £4 billion. It remains to be seen whether this solidarity can be maintained in the face of the conflicting evidence about the recent performance of the economy from the indicators which have been published in the last three months.

scholarly journals Analysis of the financial account of the Republic of Serbia in the period from 2010-2018

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-79
Author(s):  
Sanja Bakić
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Foreign Investors ◽  
Financial Account ◽  
The World ◽  
The Subject ◽  
The Republic ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Current Account

A country's balance of payments represents transactions between one country and the rest of the world. The subject of the research is the analysis of the period from 2010 to 2018 and the presentation of the impact of positions of goods, services, primary income and personal transfers on the current account of the balance of payments, as well as covering current balance positions through capital. The aim of the research in this paper is to examine the importance of opening the borders of the Republic of Serbia and enabling the entry of foreign investors. The expected results of the research should indicate the way to reduce the current account deficit, the balance of payments itself, as well as the economic development and stability of the country.

The UK Economy

1996 ◽  
Vol 158 ◽  
pp. 7-26 ◽  
Author(s):  
Garry Young
Keyword(s):  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Real Income ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
The Past ◽  
Steady Growth ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Current Account

The development of the UK economy over the past four years has been marked by a very favourable and unexpected combination of steady growth and low inflation with prices growing on average at about the same rate as real income. In addition, claimant unemployment has fallen by over 800,000 since its peak at the beginning of 1993 and the current account deficit of the balance of payments has remained small and, somewhat erratically, declined.

Chapter I. The Home Economy

1976 ◽  
Vol 77 ◽  
pp. 7-32
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Private Investment ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Current Output ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Current Account

The recovery in UK output is now clearly under way, against the background of a world recovery more rapid than we previously anticipated. Inflation has come down from 25 per cent to just below 15 per cent (both on a year earlier and on a quarterly basis). The current account deficit, after a low first quarter, appears to have worsened somewhat and is running at an annual rate of over £2 billion per annum. Looking over the next eighteen months, we can see a continuation of the current output recovery but, because of the drop in the exchange rate, inflation on a year earlier seems unlikely to fall below 10 per cent, in spite of our assumption that the next wages policy is not formally broken. The current account deficit should start to fall from early 1977; this improvement could be sufficient, on the assumption that monetary growth is held down by higher interest rates, to stabilise the exchange rate in the second half of 1977, if at a somewhat lower level than today's. Private investment should recover quite sharply in 1977, but unemployment may fall only slowly from a peak in early 1977 of about 1.3 million. This highlights the fact that this projected recovery, largely based on exports and stockbuilding, occurs in manufacturing and not also, as in 1972–3, in public and private services, which are relatively labour-intensive.

scholarly journals Georgia

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (149) ◽  
Author(s):  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Aversion ◽  
Economic Impact ◽  
Current Account ◽  
Current Account Deficit ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Global Risk ◽  
Real Gdp ◽  
Economic Slowdown ◽  
The Current Account

Georgia’s performance under the Extended Arrangement has been good, but the country is now facing a pronounced economic slowdown and an urgent balance of payments need due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Real GDP is expected to decline by 4 percent in 2020, but projections are subject to more than the usual uncertainty. Lower exports, no tourism, and weaker remittances are expected to widen the current account deficit to 11? percent of GDP in 2020. Rising global risk aversion is likely to reduce private financial inflows and delay investment. The authorities have sought to contain the COVID-19 pandemic and cushion its economic impact but face a balance of payments gap of $1.8 billion for 2020-21 (11.4 percent of GDP).

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