Population Growth Impacts of Zero Net International Migration

1997 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon F. Bouvier ◽  
Dudley L. Poston ◽  
Nanbin Benjamin Zhai
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Processes

Natural increase, and net international migration are the demographic processes that determine the amount of growth or decline in a nation's population. In a country such as the United States, the contribution of net international migration to overall population change overshadows the contribution of natural increase. It has long been the practice, however, when making population projections for countries, to consider the role of zero net international migration in an incorrect manner. Some analysts have assumed that if the same number of people leave and enter the country each year, then the effect of net international migration will be zero. This article examines that assumption and shows that it is fallacious. Examining the direct, indirect, total, and negative demographic impacts of zero net international migration through simulations with demographic data, we demonstrate that zero net international migration is not the same and therefore does not have the same demographic results and implications as zero international migration. We conclude that zero net international migration should not be confused with zero international migration. In discussions of international migration in either sending or receiving countries, the two concepts must be kept separate for they are not identical and, moreover, have decidedly different demographic implications and effects.

scholarly journals 2. Estimating Net Interracial Mobility in the United States: A Residual Methods Approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 39 (1) ◽  
pp. 31-71 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anthony Daniel Perez ◽  
Charles Hirschman
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Minority Groups ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Reduced Form ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Table Data ◽  
The Impact

This paper presents a residual methods approach to identifying social mobility across race/ethnic categories. In traditional demographic accounting models, population growth is limited to changes in natural increase and migration. Other sources of population change are absorbed by the model residual and can be estimated only indirectly. While these residual estimates have been used to illuminate a number of elusive demographic processes, there has been little effort to incorporate shifts in racial identification into formal accounts of population change. In light of growing evidence that a number of Americans view race/ethnic identities as a personal choice, not as a fixed characteristic, mobility across racial categories may play important roles in the growth of race/ethnic subpopulations and changes to the composition of the United States. To examine this potential, we derive a reduced-form population balancing equation that treats fertility and international migration as given and estimates survival from period life table data. After subtracting out national increase and net international migration and adjusting for changes in racial measurement and census coverage, we argue that the remaining error of closure provides a reasonable estimate of net interracial mobility among the native born. Using recent U.S. Census and ACS microdata, we illustrate the impact that identity shifts may have had on the growth of race/ethnic subpopulations in the past quarter century. Findings suggest a small drift from the non-Hispanic white population into race/ethnic minority groups, though the pattern varies by age and between time periods.

scholarly journals Local Population Change and Variations in Racial Integration in the United States, 2000–2010

2016 ◽  
Vol 41 (2) ◽  
pp. 233-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Bellman ◽  
Seth E. Spielman ◽  
Rachel S. Franklin
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Metropolitan Areas ◽  
Local Population ◽  
The United States ◽  
Theil Index ◽  
Small Scale ◽  
Local Areas

While population growth has been consistently tied to decreasing racial segregation at the metropolitan level in the United States, little work has been done to relate small-scale changes in population size to integration. We address this question through a novel technique that tracks population changes by race and ethnicity for comparable geographies in both 2000 and 2010. Using the Theil index, we analyze the fifty most populous metropolitan statistical areas in 2010 for changes in multigroup segregation. We classify local areas by their net population change between 2000 and 2010 using a unique unit of analysis based on aggregating census blocks. We find strong evidence that growing parts of rapidly growing metropolitan areas of the United States are crucial to understanding regional differences in segregation that have emerged in past decades. Multigroup segregation declined the most in growing parts of growing metropolitan areas. Comparatively, growing parts of shrinking or stagnant metropolitan areas were less diverse and had smaller declines in segregation. We also find that local areas with shrinking populations had disproportionately high minority representation in 2000 before population loss took place. We conclude that the regional context of population growth or decline has important consequences for the residential mixing of racial groups.

scholarly journals Using Spatial Autocorrelation for identification of demographic patterns of Functional Urban Areas in Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (52) ◽  
pp. 123-144
Author(s):  
Sławomir Kurek ◽  
Mirosław Wójtowicz ◽  
Jadwiga Gałka
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Second Demographic Transition ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Demographic Processes

Abstract Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) leads to a better knowledge of urban spatial organisation, which may play a significant role in regional policy making and may be helpful in understanding the connection between urbanisation and demographic development. An explanation of population change in urban regions can be associated the second demographic transition comprising fertility decline below replacement level and postponement of births. The aim of this paper is to focus on establishing similarity patterns and anomalous values of selected demographic variables in the cores and peripheral areas of Functional Urban Areas. At the background of this study lies an assumption that population development of FUA's is shaped by different factors connected with second demographic transition and migrations. To achieve the aims the following demographic characteristics were used: population growth rate, dependency ratio, rate of natural increase, the net migration rate, and the dynamic economic ageing index, Spatial methods play an increasingly important role in contemporary socio-demographic research. In order to identify spatial systems Global Moran Statistics and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) including Local Moran statistics as well as Getis-Ord Gi* statistics were used. The research showed global and local autocorrelation of demographic processes in Functional Urban Areas in Poland, namely population growth, natural increase, net migration and population ageing. The use of local Moran's I statistic and the Getis-Ord Gi* method has led to identification of spatial clusters and dispersions representing different demographic variables. Spatial autocorrelation methods can be useful in an analysis of demographic variables including changes in time. The main contribution of this study to the research on demographic processes in urban areas was an application of spatial groupings techniques not only to find out similarity and dissimilarity patterns of demographic indicators but also to apply this findings for the needs of spatial planning.

Zero Undocumented Population Growth Is Here to Stay and Immigration Reform Would Preserve and Extend These Gains

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Warren
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Homeland Security ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
The Us ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
Legal Immigration

This report demonstrates that a broad and sustained reduction in undocumented immigration to the United States occurred in the 2008 to 2015 period. First, the report shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Great Recession had little, if any, role in the transformation to zero population growth. The population stopped growing because of increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11, a decade and a half of accelerating efforts to reduce illegal entries across the southern border, long-term increases in the numbers leaving the population each year, and improved economic and demographic conditions in Mexico. These conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. It is time to recognize that the era of large-scale undocumented population growth has ended, and that there is a need to reform the US legal immigration system to preserve and extend these gains (Kerwin and Warren 2017, 319-21). Major findings of the report include:   The recession did not reduce arrivals or accelerate departures from the undocumented population; it essentially had very little impact on population change.[1]Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 for all major sending areas and for 13 of the top 15 countries of origin.[2]Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 in all of the top 15 states. In 10 of the 15 top states, growth changed to decline.Nearly twice as many left[3] the undocumented population from Mexico than arrived in the 2008 to 2015 period — 1.7 million left the population and 900,000 arrived.Almost twice as many overstays as persons who entered without inspection (EWIs) “arrived” (joined the undocumented population) from 2008 to 2015 — 2.0 million overstays compared to 1.1 million EWIs.Overstays leave the undocumented population at higher rates than EWIs: about 1.9 million, or 40 percent, of overstays that lived in the United States in 2008 had left the undocumented population by 2015, compared to 1.6 million, or 24 percent, of EWIs.The rate of overstays (65% of the newly undocumented), compared to EWIs, is more dramatic than the numbers indicate since estimates of the undocumented count Central American asylum seekers that cross the US southern border as EWIs.[1] The term “population” in this paper refers to the undocumented population, both persons who have stayed in the United States beyond the period of their temporary admission (“overstays”) and those who entered without inspection (EWIs).[2] In this paper, the terms “2000 to 2008 period” and “2008 to 2015 period” are not overlapping; they are used for ease of presentation. Estimates for the two time periods are based on data for 2000, 2008, and 2015. Technically, the earlier period is for 2000 through 2007 (eight years), and the latter period is for 2008 through 2014 (seven years).[3] Undocumented residents can leave the population in four ways: emigrate voluntarily, adjust to lawful status, be removed by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), or (a relatively small number) die.

The Role of Trans-Tasman Migration in Forecasting the New Zealand Population

1993 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 395-415 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques Poot
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Zealand Population ◽  
Dominant Component ◽  
Population Forecasting

Population growth in New Zealand is rather volatile. International migration is the main cause of this. However, as is common in many countries, official population projections are based on a range of exogenously-set fixed levels of net migration. This article argues that, for the short to medium term, such projections can be improved upon by adopting econometric methodologies which take explicitly into account the demographic-economic two-way interaction in certain components of international migration. Specifically, the article summarizes research on the causes and consequences of trans-Tasman migration, which is the dominant component of the volatility in New Zealand's net migration. It is shown how these findings can aid population forecasting.

Introduction

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-11
Author(s):  
Emily Klancher Merchant
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
The United States ◽  
Historical Narrative ◽  
The Other ◽  
Reproductive Justice ◽  
The Social ◽  
History Of

The introduction situates Building the Population Bomb’s historical narrative in the context of current debates over whether the world’s population is growing too quickly or not quickly enough, and over what should be done about it. It lays out two positions—moderate and extreme—and explains that, rather than taking one side or the other, the book tells the story of how these positions emerged in tandem between the 1920s and the 1970s. It contends that population growth has been unfairly blamed for many of the world’s problems, and promises to explain how this happened and who has benefited from it. The introduction describes how Building the Population Bomb contributes to the history of the social sciences, furthers our understanding of the role of the United States in promoting global development in the second half of the twentieth century, and advances the contemporary project of reproductive justice.

scholarly journals Zero Undocumented Population Growth is Here to Stay and Immigration Reform Would Preserve and Extend These Gains

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (2) ◽  
pp. 491-508 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Warren
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Immigration Reform ◽  
The Us ◽  
Southern Border ◽  
Zero Population Growth ◽  
Legal Immigration

This report demonstrates that a broad and sustained reduction in undocumented immigration to the United States occurred in the 2008 to 2015 period. First, the report shows that, contrary to conventional wisdom, the Great Recession had little, if any, role in the transformation to zero population growth. The population stopped growing because of increased scrutiny of air travel after 9/11, a decade and a half of accelerating efforts to reduce illegal entries across the southern border, long-term increases in the numbers leaving the population each year, and improved economic and demographic conditions in Mexico. These conditions are likely to continue for the foreseeable future. It is time to recognize that the era of large-scale undocumented population growth has ended, and that there is a need to reform the US legal immigration system to preserve and extend these gains (Kerwin and Warren 2017, 319–21). Major findings of the report include: • The recession did not reduce arrivals or accelerate departures from the undocumented population; it essentially had very little impact on population change.1 • Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 for all major sending areas and for 13 of the top 15 countries of origin.2 • Population growth was lower in 2008 to 2015 than in 2000 to 2008 in all of the top 15 states. In 10 of the 15 top states, growth changed to decline. • Nearly twice as many left3 the undocumented population from Mexico than arrived in the 2008 to 2015 period — 1.7 million left the population and 900,000 arrived. • Almost twice as many overstays as persons who entered without inspection (EWIs) “arrived” (joined the undocumented population) from 2008 to 2015 — 2.0 million overstays compared to 1.1 million EWIs. • Overstays leave the undocumented population at higher rates than EWIs: about 1.9 million, or 40 percent, of overstays that lived in the United States in 2008 had left the undocumented population by 2015, compared to 1.6 million, or 24 percent, of EWIs. • The rate of overstays (65% of the newly undocumented), compared to EWIs, is more dramatic than the numbers indicate since estimates of the undocumented count Central American asylum seekers that cross the US southern border as EWIs.

scholarly journals Growing gap in population dynamics, closing the gap in population size: the European Union and the United States compared

Geografie ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-62
Author(s):  
Jiřina Kocourková ◽  
Luděk Šídlo ◽  
Martin Novák ◽  
Luděk Sýkora
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
European Union ◽  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Population Size ◽  
Population Change ◽  
The United States ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
The European Union ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Eu

This paper investigates differences in population development in the European Union and the United States. The population projections recently published by the United Nations forecast expected a slowdown in growth and a shrinking of the EU population and a continued growth in the US. Therefore, the paper aims to find out which components of population change are primarily responsible for the different population dynamics. The article first explores the role of population change and migration in total population growth. Then it investigates fertility and mortality patterns, focusing on demographic behaviour of ethnic/racial groups in the US and regional disparities in Europe. The paper documents that fertility differences primarily cause the different population dynamics in the EU and the US. This is reflected in the forecast convergence towards the same population size.

scholarly journals Recent changes to the Indigenous population geography of Australia: evidence from the 2016 Census

2018 ◽  
Vol 2 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-13 ◽  
Author(s):  
Francis Markham ◽  
Nicholas Biddle
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Indigenous People ◽  
Census Data ◽  
Indigenous Population ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Indigenous Australians ◽  
Population Geography

Background  The Indigenous population of Australia has grown very rapidly since the first tabulation of census statistics about Indigenous people in the 1971 ABS Census of Population and Housing (Census). Understanding the size and location of the Indigenous Australians is important to the State for service delivery and policy, and for Indigenous peoples themselves. Aims  This paper summarises changes to population geography of Indigenous Australians between 2011 and 2016. It describes the growth in the estimated population, and its changing geographic distribution. The paper derives a measure of ‘unexpected population change’: the spatial mismatch between demographic projections from the 2011 and 2016 Census counts. Data and methods  Census data and population projections are tabulated and mapped. Results  Indigenous people now comprise 3.3 per cent of the total Australian population, or 798,381 persons. This population grew by 3.5 per cent each year between 2011 and 2016, a rate of growth 34 per cent faster than that explained by natural increase alone. Both aspects of growth were concentrated in more urban parts of the country, especially coastal New South Wales and southeast Queensland. For the first time, fewer than 20 per cent of Indigenous people were recorded as living in remote areas. Conclusions  Indigenous population growth continues to be remarkably rapid. Future research is required to understand the correlates and causes of population growth beyond that explained by natural increase.

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