scholarly journals Using Spatial Autocorrelation for identification of demographic patterns of Functional Urban Areas in Poland

2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (52) ◽  
pp. 123-144
Author(s):  
Sławomir Kurek ◽  
Mirosław Wójtowicz ◽  
Jadwiga Gałka
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Spatial Autocorrelation ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Second Demographic Transition ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Demographic Processes

Abstract Functional Urban Areas (FUAs) leads to a better knowledge of urban spatial organisation, which may play a significant role in regional policy making and may be helpful in understanding the connection between urbanisation and demographic development. An explanation of population change in urban regions can be associated the second demographic transition comprising fertility decline below replacement level and postponement of births. The aim of this paper is to focus on establishing similarity patterns and anomalous values of selected demographic variables in the cores and peripheral areas of Functional Urban Areas. At the background of this study lies an assumption that population development of FUA's is shaped by different factors connected with second demographic transition and migrations. To achieve the aims the following demographic characteristics were used: population growth rate, dependency ratio, rate of natural increase, the net migration rate, and the dynamic economic ageing index, Spatial methods play an increasingly important role in contemporary socio-demographic research. In order to identify spatial systems Global Moran Statistics and the Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) including Local Moran statistics as well as Getis-Ord Gi* statistics were used. The research showed global and local autocorrelation of demographic processes in Functional Urban Areas in Poland, namely population growth, natural increase, net migration and population ageing. The use of local Moran's I statistic and the Getis-Ord Gi* method has led to identification of spatial clusters and dispersions representing different demographic variables. Spatial autocorrelation methods can be useful in an analysis of demographic variables including changes in time. The main contribution of this study to the research on demographic processes in urban areas was an application of spatial groupings techniques not only to find out similarity and dissimilarity patterns of demographic indicators but also to apply this findings for the needs of spatial planning.

scholarly journals Demographics and the Housing Market

2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (192) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuko Hashimoto ◽  
Gee Hee Hong ◽  
Xiaoxiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Housing Market ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Change ◽  
House Prices ◽  
Housing Prices ◽  
Regional Disparities ◽  
Policy Measures

How does a shrinking population affect the housing market? In this study, drawing on Japan’s experience, we find that there exists an asymmetric relationship between housing prices and population change. Due to the durability of housing structures, the decline in housing prices associated with population losses is estimated to be larger than the rise in prices associated with population increases. Given that population losses have been and are projected to be more acute in rural areas than urban areas in Japan, the on-going demographic transition in Japan could worsen regional disparities, as falling house prices in rural areas could intensify population outflows. Policy measures to promote more even population growth across regions, and avoid the over-supply of houses, are critical to stabilize house prices with a shrinking population.

scholarly journals Utjecaj ratnih i poratnih migracija na demografsku sliku Grada Knina (1991. – 2011.)

Geoadria ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 85-122
Author(s):  
Snježana Mrđen ◽  
Ana Jurić
Keyword(s):  
Population Change ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Ethnic Composition ◽  
Demographic Ageing ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Forced Migrations ◽  
Intercensal Period ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
And Migration ◽  
The Town

The purpose of this paper is to analyze changes in the total population change in the settlements of the Town of Knin in the last two intercensal periods (1991-2001, 2001-2011), as well as the changes in the ethnic composition. As the war caused forced migrations which largely determined demographic processes in this region, a special attention in this research was given to the migration features of the population. The results of this research indicate that the greatest changes occurred in the 1991-2001 intercensal period. Both components of growth (natural increase and migration) were negative and caused a significant decrease of the indigenous population. This transformed the ethnic structure of the region; pre-war Serb population decreased by more than three quarters, while the influx of people from other parts of Croatia and Bosnia and Herzegovina resulted in the predominance of the Croat population. Although the region experienced a positive net migration in the last intercensal period, unfavourable demographic processes characterized by negative natural population change and demographic ageing occurred in most settlements included in this research. This suggests that the region is likely to continue experiencing depopulation, which will cause the extinction of population in some settlements.

Population Growth Impacts of Zero Net International Migration

1997 ◽  
Vol 31 (2) ◽  
pp. 294-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leon F. Bouvier ◽  
Dudley L. Poston ◽  
Nanbin Benjamin Zhai
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
International Migration ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
The United States ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Population Projections ◽  
Demographic Processes

Natural increase, and net international migration are the demographic processes that determine the amount of growth or decline in a nation's population. In a country such as the United States, the contribution of net international migration to overall population change overshadows the contribution of natural increase. It has long been the practice, however, when making population projections for countries, to consider the role of zero net international migration in an incorrect manner. Some analysts have assumed that if the same number of people leave and enter the country each year, then the effect of net international migration will be zero. This article examines that assumption and shows that it is fallacious. Examining the direct, indirect, total, and negative demographic impacts of zero net international migration through simulations with demographic data, we demonstrate that zero net international migration is not the same and therefore does not have the same demographic results and implications as zero international migration. We conclude that zero net international migration should not be confused with zero international migration. In discussions of international migration in either sending or receiving countries, the two concepts must be kept separate for they are not identical and, moreover, have decidedly different demographic implications and effects.

Racial Differentials in the Components of Population Change and Neighborhood Transitions in New York City, 1980–2010: The Distinct Role of Asian Net Inflows in the Age of Net Outflows of Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics

2018 ◽  
Vol 55 (5) ◽  
pp. 1456-1486 ◽  
Author(s):  
Arun Peter Lobo ◽  
Ronald J. O. Flores ◽  
Joseph J. Salvo
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Historically White ◽  
Racial Hierarchy ◽  
Net Migration ◽  
Racial Differentials ◽  
White Neighborhoods ◽  
The City

We examine New York’s components of population change—net migration and natural increase—by race and space to explain increases in integrated and minority neighborhoods, in this era of greater ethnoracial diversity. The city has net outflows of Whites, Blacks, and Hispanics, and net Asian inflows, a new dynamic that has reordered its neighborhoods. Asians, often joined by Hispanics, moved into White neighborhoods without triggering White flight, resulting in integrated neighborhoods without Blacks. These neighborhoods constitute a plurality, furthering Black exclusion. Minority neighborhoods saw net outflows, an overlooked phenomenon, but expanded thanks to natural increase, which maintains the existing racial structure. White inflows have helped transition some minority neighborhoods to integrated areas, though integrated neighborhoods with Blacks declined overall. As Asians and Hispanics occupy historically White spaces, this warrants a reconceptualization of race and the emerging racial hierarchy, and a focus on the gatekeeper role of Asians and Hispanics.

scholarly journals Natural Geography and Patterns of Local Population Growth and Decline in Spain: 1960–2011

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (18) ◽  
pp. 4979 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adelheid Holl
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Growth Patterns ◽  
Detailed Data ◽  
Precipitation Seasonality ◽  
Growth Variation

This paper analyzes the role of natural geography for explaining local population change patterns. Using spatially detailed data for Spain from 1960 to 2011, the estimation results indicated that natural geography variables relate to about half of the population growth variation of rural areas and more than a third of the population growth variation of urban areas during this period. Local differences in climate, topography, and soil and rock formation as well as distance to aquifers and the coast contribute to variations in local population growth patterns. Although, over time, local population change became less related to differences in natural geography, natural geography is still significantly related to nearly a third of the variation in local population change in rural areas and the contribution of temperature range and precipitation seasonality has even increased. For urban areas, weather continues to matter too, with growth being higher in warmer places.

scholarly journals Demographic and functional evaluation of urban areas in Vojvodina region

2014 ◽  
pp. 593-605
Author(s):  
Vlasta Kokotovic ◽  
Aleksandra Spalevic
Keyword(s):  
Urban Areas ◽  
Total Population ◽  
Population Change ◽  
Functional Evaluation ◽  
Demographic Development ◽  
Active Population ◽  
Aging Index ◽  
Urban Settlements ◽  
Demographic Processes ◽  
Quantitative Procedure

The article illustrates the procedure of quantitative demographic and functional evaluation of urban areas in Vojvodina region. Evaluation is based on seven indicators such as total population, population change index, aging index, the share of employees in primary sector, the share of employees in total population, the share of economically active population (noncommuters) and the share of commuters in economically active population of all urban settlements in Vojvodina region. Quantitative procedure of demographic and functional valorization of urban areas is based on a rank method. According to the results of applied procedure, the categories of urban areas are determined. Each category demonstrates a level of demographic development and correlation between demographic potential and suitable geographical and traffic position. The article is an attempt to perceive better the demographic processes in settlements. Moreover, we pay attention to a different approach in the research of urban settlements network in Vojvodina region.

scholarly journals The Urban Mortality Transition and Poor-Country Urbanization

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 223-275 ◽  
Author(s):  
Remi Jedwab ◽  
Dietrich Vollrath
Keyword(s):  
Population Growth ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Poor Country ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Locational Choice ◽  
Amenity Effect ◽  
Urbanization Rate

Today, the world’s fastest-growing cities lie in low-income countries, unlike the historical norm. Also, unlike the “killer cities” of history, cities in low-income countries grow not just through in-migration but also through their own natural increase. First, we use novel historical data to document that many poor countries urbanized at the same time as the postwar urban mortality transition. Second, we develop a framework incorporating location choice with heterogeneity in demographics and congestion costs across locations to account for this. In the framework, people prefer to live in low-mortality locations, and the aggregate rate of population growth and the locational choice of individuals interact. Third, we calibrate this to data from a sample of poor countries and find that informal urban areas (e.g., slums) can absorb additional population more easily than other locations. We show that between 1950 and 2005 the urban mortality transition could have doubled the urbanization rate as well as the size of informal urban areas in this sample. Of these effects, one-third could be attributed to the amenity effect of lower urban mortality rates, while the remainder is due to higher population growth disproportionately pushing people into informal urban areas. Fourth, simulations suggest that family planning programs, as well as industrialization or urban infrastructure and institutions may be effective in slowing poor-country urbanization. (JEL I12, J11, N30, O15, O18, R11, R23)

Demographic Transition and Economic Development

1998 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Y. Cyrus Chu
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Mortality Rate ◽  
Population Growth ◽  
Demographic Transition ◽  
Medical Technology ◽  
Population Growth Rate ◽  
Natural Increase ◽  
Death Rates ◽  
Fertility Decisions

Demographic transition refers to a shift in reproductive behavior from a state of high birth and death rates to a state of low birth and death rates. This transition takes place because of advances in agricultural technology and medical science or improvement in hygiene environment, all of which result in corresponding declines in the mortality rate. In this first phase of the demographic transition, population growth rises because the decline in mortality rate has not been coupled with any significant change in parents’ fertility decisions. Then, in the second phase of the transition, parents begin to reduce their fertility as they realize that their ideal number of children can be more easily achieved with fewer births. The widespread use of contraceptive techniques facilitates parents’ attempts to reduce fertility, which in turn causes a decline in the population growth rate. Eventually, the population growth rate converges to a new level, which may be higher or lower than in the pretransitional stage. To facilitate comparison, we can use figure 11.1 to characterize the time and process of the transition. In figure 11.1, Tα marks the apparent starting point of a continuous decline in mortality. Tβ, which normally occurs later than Tα, refers to the time at which the fertility rate begins to decline. Tγ, is the point of lasting return, with an average rate of natural increase equal to or less than that of the period preceding the date of Tα. The convention is to define D = Tγ - Tα as the duration of the transition period. Chesnais (1992) separated the observations of world demographic transition into several types. The first type includes developed countries in Europe and Japan; the second type consists of countries with immigrant European populations, such as the United States, Australia, and Argentina; late-developing countries, such as India. South Korea, and Jamaica, belong to the third type. For countries of the first type, the mortality decline process is closely related to the development of medical technology, which was gradual and spread out over time; hence, the demographic transition is also long. Late-developing countries and those with large immigrant populations were able to adopt the already-developed medical technology from the advanced countries at one time.

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