Short-Term Output Fluctuations in Poland: An Application of the Is-Mp-As Model

2005 ◽  
Vol 49 (2) ◽  
pp. 44-50
Author(s):  
Yu Hsing
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
Output Fluctuations ◽  
National Bank ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Expected Outcomes

This paper examines output fluctuations in Poland based on an extended IS-MP-AS model (Romer, 2000) and the Taylor rule (1993, 1998, 1999). Empirical results show that real output is negatively influenced by the expected inflation rate, the deficit/GDP ratio, and the euro interest rate while it is positively affected by real appreciation and stock prices. Policy implications are that expansionary fiscal policy would not generate expected outcomes and that the conventional approach of currency devaluation to stimulate the economy may not apply to Poland due to the National Bank of Poland's potential reaction to raise the interest rate.

scholarly journals Analisis Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Nilai Tukar Rupiah Periode 1999Q1-2019Q2

2020 ◽  
Vol 11 (2) ◽  
pp. 197-209
Author(s):  
Erric Wijaya
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Exchange Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate

The exchange rate plays an important role in influencing the level of Indonesia's international trade towards trading partner countries. This study discusses the factors that influence the exchange rate of the rupiah against dollar both in the short and long term. The variables that are suspected to influence changes in exchange rates are the inflation rate, the interest rate (SBI), world oil prices, the value of exports, and the value of imports. This research was conducted during 1999 quarter 1 to 2019 quarter 2. The results showed that there was a long-term and short-term relationship between inflation rates, interest rates, world oil prices, exports and imports to the exchange rate. In the short term, the interest rate and world oil prices have a significant effect on the exchange rate. In the long run, the inflation rate, world oil prices and imports have a significant effect on the exchange rate.

scholarly journals Monetary and exchange policy of Kazakhstan: current problems and ways of improvement

2021 ◽  
pp. 70-76
Author(s):  
S. N. Abieva ◽  
G. G. Ilyasova
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Inflation Targeting ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Balance Of Payments ◽  
Medium Term ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Expected Inflation ◽  
National Bank ◽  
Exchange Policy

The National Bank of Kazakhstan continues to pursue monetary policy in accordance with the principles of inflation targeting. As part of the medium-term strategy, the National Bank has reduced the target inflation corridor by one percentage point in 2020. Due to the global crisis of recent years, the National Bank has set a task to keep the inflation rate in the 4-6% corridor to stabilize the economy. The inflation rate at the end of 2020 was 7.5%. The National Bank has set a task to reduce this indicator to the level of the target corridor of 4-6% in 2021. Also, in conducting monetary policy, the National Bank has made decisions that have an anti-inflationary effect for the medium term, that is, the target level will decrease by 4% in 2021 and beyond. The preservation of monetary conditions by the regulator at a neutral level was characterized by a decrease in short-term rates after slow inflation. In 2019, against the background of a further decrease in inflation, it was decided to raise the base rate. At the same time, market participants may regard monetary conditions as the beginning of tightening. In Kazakhstan, the financial regulator sets the rate depending on the size of real and expected inflation in the country, external factors that determine the state of the balance of payments, as well as taking into account the need to maintain economic development. The article discusses the methods of conducting the monetary and monetary policy of Kazakhstan, as well as issues and ways to improve it.

scholarly journals Pengaruh Tingkat Suku Bunga, Inflasi Dan Nilai Kurs Terhadap Harga Saham Perusahaan Perhotelan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia Per Triwulannya Periode 2016-2018

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
pp. 871-877
Author(s):  
Rahmat Dewa Bagas Nugraha ◽  
H.M Nursito
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Exchange Rates ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Quantitative Study ◽  
Stock Prices ◽  
Stock Exchange ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Ratio Analysis ◽  
The Interest Rate

This study aims to determine and analyze the factors that affect stock prices through appropriate ratio analysis. As for the ratio of interest rates, inflation and exchange rates. Researchers want to know and analyze the effect partially or simultaneously between interest rates, inflation, and exchange rates on stock prices. This research is a quantitative study using secondary data. The object of this research is hotel companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2016-2018. The sample used in this study were 3 hotel with certain characteristics. The results of research simultaneously using the F test show that there is no influence between interest rates, inflation and exchange rates on stock prices because the calculated value is smaller than the table. Partially with the t test it can be concluded that there is no influence between interest rates on stock prices because the tcount value in the interest rate variable is smaller than the t table. Likewise, the t calculation of inflation and the exchange rate is smaller than the t table, so that there is no partial effect of the two variables on stock prices. Keywords: Stock Prices, Interest Rates, Inflation and Exchange Rates

scholarly journals Does the Interest Rate Form Business Cycle?

2019 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 29-34
Author(s):  
Bijan Bidabad ◽  
Abul Hassan
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Business Cycle ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Banking System ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Short Term ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Rate Form ◽  
The Interest Rate

Dynamic structural behavior of depositor, bank and borrower and the role of banks in forming business cycle are investigated. We test the hypothesis that does banks behavior make oscillations in the economy through the interest rate. By dichotomizing banking activities into two markets of deposit and loan, we show that these two markets have non-synchronized structures, and this is why the money sector fluctuation starts. As a result, the fluctuation is transmitted to the real economy through saving and investment functions. Empirical results assert that in the USA, the banking system creates fluctuations in the money sector and real economy as well through short-term interest rates

scholarly journals The Impact of Macroeconomic Variables on Sectoral Indices in Indonesia

ETIKONOMI ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 71-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Bambang Sutrisno
Keyword(s):  
Exchange Rate ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Estimation Method ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Series Data ◽  
Macroeconomic Variables ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

This study aims to examine the effect of macroeconomic variables on sectoral indices in the Indonesian Stock Exchange. The difference in sensitiveness among sectors is an interesting issue to investigate this relationship in an emerging market, such as Indonesia. This study employs ordinary least square (OLS) as an estimation method with monthly time-series data from January 2005 to December 2014. The results document that the interest rate, inflation rate, and exchange rate simultaneously have a significant effect on sectoral indices in Indonesia. The interest rate partially shows a significant negative influence on all sectors except basic industry and chemical, finance, infrastructure, utilities, and transportation, and miscellaneous industry sectors. The inflation rate partially has no significant effect on all sectors. The exchange rate partially has a significant negative impact on all industries.DOI: 10.15408/etk.v16i1.4323

The Long Slump

2011 ◽  
Vol 101 (2) ◽  
pp. 431-469 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert E Hall
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Real Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Full Employment ◽  
Consumer Debt ◽  
Real Rate ◽  
Consumer Durables ◽  
The Great Depression ◽  
Real Estate Prices ◽  
The Interest Rate

In a market-clearing economy, declines in demand from one sector do not cause large declines in aggregate output because other sectors expand. The key price mediating the response is the interest rate. A decline in the rate stimulates all categories of spending. But in a low-inflation economy, the room for a decline in the rate is small, because of the notorious lower limit of zero on the nominal interest rate. In the Great Depression, substantial deflation caused the real interest rate to reach high levels. In the Great Slump that began at the end of 2007, low inflation resulted in an only slightly negative real rate when full employment called for a much lower real rate because of declines in demand. Fortunately, the inflation rate hardly responded to conditions in product and labor markets, else deflation might have occurred, with an even higher real interest rate. I concentrate on three closely related sources of declines in demand: the buildup of excess stocks of housing and consumer durables, the corresponding expansion of consumer debt that financed the buildup, and financial frictions that resulted from the decline in real-estate prices. (JEL E23, E24, E31, E32, E65)

ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI KONSUMSI MASYARAKAT DI PROVINSI ACEH

2014 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tarmizi Gadeng
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Econometric Model ◽  
Least Square ◽  
The Other ◽  
Ordinary Least Square ◽  
Other Hand ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

The main objective of this study is to find out the impact of the inflation rate,percapita income as wall as the interest rate on the household comsumption of the population of Aceh.Secondary data 1983 – 2008 are collected or couning from various ageucig and instution and ordinary least square econometric model used as a method of analysis.            The result of the study tells us that the rate of inflation and the percapita income hare positive and significoutly effect on the household consumtion while the rate of interest on the other hand statistically has a negative and not significant effect on the house hold consumption. The interest rate which reflect the influence of the consumption has a positive, not significantly and in elactic. 

scholarly journals Interest rates and prices causality in the Czech Republic – Granger approach

2009 ◽  
Vol 55 (No. 7) ◽  
pp. 347-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. Poměnková ◽  
S. Kapounek
Keyword(s):  
Monetary Policy ◽  
Czech Republic ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Interest Rates ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
Aggregate Demand ◽  
Real Economy ◽  
Investment Activity ◽  
The Czech Republic ◽  
The Interest Rate

Monetary policy analysis concerns both the assumptions of the transmission mechanism and the direction of causality between the nominal (i.e. the money) and real economy. The traditional channel of monetary policy implementation works via the interest rate changes and their impact on the investment activity and the aggregate demand. Altering the relationship between the aggregate demand and supply then impacts the general price level and hence inflation. Alternatively, the Post-Keynesians postulate money as a residual. In their approach, banks credit in response to the movements in investment activities and demand for money. In this paper, the authors use the VAR (i.e. the vector autoregressive) approach applied to the “Taylor Rule” concept to identify the mechanism and impact of the monetary policy in the small open post-transformation economy of the Czech Republic. The causality (in the Granger sense) between the interest rate and prices in the Czech Republic is then identified. The two alternative modelling approaches are tested. First, there is the standard VAR analysis with the lagged values of interest rate, inflation and economic growth as explanatory variables. This model shows one way causality (in the Granger sense) between the inflation rate and interest rate (i.e. the inflation rate is (Granger) caused by the lagged interest rate). Secondly, the lead (instead of lagged) values of the interest rate, inflation rate and real exchange rate are used. This estimate shows one way causality between the inflation rate and interest rate in the sense that interest rate is caused by the lead (i.e. the expected future) inflation rate. The assumptions based on money as a residual of the economic process were rejected in both models.

Forecasting the Time Evolution of the Oil Price During Months of Negative Inflation Rate

2012 ◽  
Vol 135 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Fabio Gori
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Mass Flow Rate ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Mass Flow ◽  
Flow Rate ◽  
Inflation Rate ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Evolution With Time ◽  
Rate Of Extraction ◽  
Initial Price

Mass conservation equation is employed to study the time evolution of the mass of oil in a reservoir, according to the actual mass flow rate of extraction. It is also possible to define the critical mass flow rate of extraction, which is the value exhausting the reservoir in an infinite time. The evolution with time of the price of the resources extracted and sold to the market is investigated in case of no-accumulation and no-depletion of the resources, i.e., when the resources are extracted and sold to the market at the same mass flow rate. The total energy conservation equation is transformed into a money or capital per time conservation equation, which allows to study the price evolution with time, which is dependent on the following parameters. The price evolution with time of the extracted resource is dependent on the parameter PIFE, “Price-Increase Factor of Extracted resource,” which is the difference between the basic interest rate of the capital, e.g., the inflation rate, and the mass flow rate of extraction. The price evolution with time of the sold resource is dependent on the parameter PIFS, “Price-Increase Factor of Sold resource,” which is the difference between the interest rate of the capital, e.g., discount or prime rate, and the mass flow rate of extraction. The parameter CIPS, “Critical Initial Price of Sold resource,” depends on the initial price of the extracted resource, on the interest rate of nonextracted resource, and on the difference between PIFS and PIFE. The parameter CIPES, “Critical Initial Price Extreme of Sold resource,” depends on the initial price of the extracted resource, on the interest rate of nonextracted resource, and PIFS. The time evolution of the oil price during the 8 months of 2009, when the inflation rate was negative, and following the economic crisis of 2008, is investigated introducing a new category of cases, i.e., the negative inflation rate one. The paper presents and discusses the results of the forecasting for different values of the interest rate of the capital, i.e., prime and discount rate, with the conclusion that the present theory can forecast the evolution of the oil price with a reasonable confidence using the prime and the discount rates as extreme limits.

scholarly journals Regulação ineficaz para forçar alongamento: O caso da Previdência Complementar Aberta no Brasil

2019 ◽  
Vol 17 (4) ◽  
pp. 33
Author(s):  
Luiz Guilherme Carpizo ◽  
Márcio Gomes Pinto Garcia
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Portfolio Management ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Causal Effect ◽  
Portfolio Allocation ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Additional Risk ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
The Impact

<p>Despite the fall in the interest rate observed in Brazil in recent decades, and specific regulations on the private pension segment that encourage long-term risk taking, institutions in this segment appear to be considerably sensitive to short-term factors, while avoiding exposure to long-term risk factors. With portfolio allocation data from large entities, we implemented a VAR model to evaluate the impact of interest rate changes on portfolio management decisions and performed a counterfactual analysis to define the causal effect of regulation on additional risk taking. Results indicate that interest rate increases lead to significant and persistent reduction of investment in riskier assets with longer maturities, while the implemented regulation was not able to force greater risk-taking by institutions, in addition to generating distortions in segments of the Brazilian financial market.</p>

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