scholarly journals How can a glacial inception be predicted?

The Holocene ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 831-842 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michel Crucifix
Keyword(s):  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Numerical Models ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Stochastic Dynamical System ◽  
Northern Summer ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Inference Network

The Early Anthropogenic Hypothesis considers that greenhouse gas concentrations should have declined during the Holocene in absence of humankind activity, leading to glacial inception around the present. It partly relies on the fact that present levels of northern summer incoming solar radiation are close to those that, in the past, preceded a glacial inception phenomenon, associated with declines in greenhouse gas concentrations. However, experiments with various numerical models of glacial cycles show that next glacial inception may still be delayed by several tens of thousands of years, even with the assumption of a decline in greenhouse gas concentrations during the Holocene. Furthermore, as we show here, conceptual models designed to capture the gross dynamics of the climate system as a whole suggest also that small disturbances may sometimes cause substantial delays in glacial events, causing a fair level of unpredictability on ice age dynamics. This suggests the need for a validated mathematical description of climate system dynamics that allows us to quantify uncertainties on predictions. Here, it is proposed to organise our knowledge about the physics and dynamics of glacial cycles through a Bayesian inference network. Constraints on the physics and dynamics of climate can be encapsulated into a stochastic dynamical system. These constraints include, in particular, estimates of the sensitivity of the components of climate to external forcings, inferred from plans of experiments with large simulators of the atmosphere, oceans and ice sheets. On the other hand, palaeoclimate observations are accounted for through a process of parameter calibration. We discuss promises and challenges raised by this programme.

Emergence of critical climate states during the Pleistocene

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicholas Golledge
Keyword(s):  
Dynamical Systems ◽  
Late Pleistocene ◽  
Dominant Frequency ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Pleistocene Climate ◽  
System Nodes ◽  
Systems Framework

<p>During the Pleistocene (approximately 2.6 Ma to present) glacial to interglacial climate variability evolved from dominantly 40 kyr cyclicity (Early Pleistocene) to 100 kyr cyclicity (Late Pleistocene to present). Three aspects of this period remain poorly understood: Why did the dominant frequency of climate oscillation change, given that no major changes in orbital forcing occurred? Why are the longer glacial cycles of the Late Pleistocene characterised by a more asymmetric form with abrupt terminations? And how can the Late Pleistocene climate be controlled by 100 kyr cyclicity when astronomical forcings of this frequency are so much weaker than those operating on shorter periods? Here we show that the decreasing frequency and increasing asymmetry that characterise Late Pleistocene ice age cycles both emerge naturally in dynamical systems in response to increasing system complexity, with collapse events (terminations) occuring only once a critical state has been reached. Using insights from network theory we propose that evolution to a state of criticality involves progressive coupling between climate system 'nodes', which ultimately allows any component of the climate system to trigger a globally synchronous termination. We propose that the climate state is synchronised at the 100 kyr frequency, rather than at shorter periods, because eccentricity-driven insolation variability controls mean temperature change globally, whereas shorter-period astronomical forcings only affect the spatial pattern of thermal forcing and thus do not favour global synchronisation. This dynamical systems framework extends and complements existing theories by accomodating the differing mechanistic interpretations of previous studies without conflict.</p>

scholarly journals A theory of glacial cycles: resolving Pleistocene puzzles

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hsien-Wang Ou
Keyword(s):  
Freezing Point ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Early Pleistocene ◽  
Polar Ice ◽  
Glacial Cycles ◽  
Convective Flux ◽  
Ice Volume ◽  
Ice Cap

Abstract. Since the summer surface air temperature that regulates the ice margin is anchored on the sea surface temperature, we posit that the climate system constitutes the intermediary of the orbital forcing of the glacial cycles. As such, the relevant forcing is the annual solar flux absorbed by the ocean, which naturally filters out the precession effect in early Pleistocene but mimics the Milankovitch insolation in late Pleistocene. For a coupled climate system that is inherent turbulent, we show that the ocean may be bistable with a cold state defined by the freezing point subpolar water, which would translate to ice bistates between a polar ice cap and an ice sheet extending to mid-latitudes, enabling large ice-volume signal regardless the forcing amplitude so long as the bistable thresholds are crossed. Such thresholds are set by the global convective flux, which would be lowered during the Pleistocene cooling, whose interplay with the ice-albedo feedback leads to transitions of the ice signal from that dominated by obliquity to the emerging precession cycles to the ice-age cycles paced by eccentricity. Through a single dynamical framework, the theory thus may resolve many long-standing puzzles of the glacial cycles.

Dynamical Ice Sheet-Climate System Response to Astronomical Forcing

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ayako Abe-Ouchi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Ice Sheet ◽  
Climate System ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Sustained Oscillations ◽  
Transient Experiments ◽  
Ocean Atmosphere ◽  
Millennial Scale

<p>Paleoclimate modelling using simple models, EMICs (Earth System Models of Intermediate Complexity) and GCMs (General Circulation Models) combined with ice sheet models has become a powerful tool for understanding how the long-term climate system with ice sheets responds to external forcings such as Milankovitch forcing. With the aid of supercomputers and advances in climate model development, it is now possible to perform a much larger number of snapshot experiments with fixed forcings as well as transient experiments with evolving forcings. This talk will review the models that simulate the Northern Hemisphere ice sheet change and climate during the ice age cycles and discuss upcoming challenges. The talk will also present recent works on simulating millennial scale climate changes and the link with the ice age cycle. The last termination of the ice age cycles as well as glacial periods were punctuated by abrupt millennial scale climate changes, such as the Bølling-Allerød interstadial, the Younger Dryas and Dansgaard-Oeschger events. Abrupt climate changes have been shown to be strongly linked to changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and the shift between the (quasi) multiple equilibria of AMOC, but the mechanism behind these abrupt changes and the link to climate change in the orbital scale are not clear. Modelling the stability of AMOC under different climate conditions together with deglacial climate change using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere GCMs has been challenging. Here we present a series of long transient experiments of at least 10,000 years with forcings under different ice sheet sizes, greenhouse gas levels and orbital parameters, as well as deglacial experiments following PMIP4 protocols, using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, MIROC4m AOGCM. When forcing under glacial condition is applied, even without freshwater perturbation, the climate-ocean system shows self-sustained oscillations within a “sweet spot.” We also see a bipolar seesaw pattern and switching between interstadials and stadials, whose return time ranges from 1,000 years to nearly 10,000 years depending on the background forcing during the ice age cycle. Our transient deglaciation experiment with a gradually changing insolation, greenhouse gas forcing and ice sheet with meltwater from the glacial period to the Holocene is analysed and compared with proxy data as well as with the series of experiments with self-sustained oscillations for a better interpretation. Implications on the role of abrupt climate changes in shaping the longer-term global ice age cycle are further discussed.</p>

scholarly journals Neoglacial history of Robson Glacier, British Columbia

2017 ◽  
Vol 54 (11) ◽  
pp. 1153-1164 ◽  
Author(s):  
B.H. Luckman ◽  
M.H. Masiokas ◽  
K. Nicolussi
Keyword(s):  
British Columbia ◽  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Tree Line ◽  
Canadian Rockies ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Forest Sites ◽  
History Of ◽  
Subfossil Wood ◽  
Glacier Advance

As glaciers in the Canadian Rockies recede, glacier forefields continue to yield subfossil wood from sites overridden by these glaciers during the Holocene. Robson Glacier in British Columbia formerly extended below tree line, and recession over the last century has progressively revealed a number of buried forest sites that are providing one of the more complete records of glacier history in the Canadian Rockies during the latter half of the Holocene. The glacier was advancing ca. 5.5 km upvalley of the Little Ice Age terminus ca. 5.26 cal ka BP, at sites ca. 2 km upvalley ca. 4.02 cal ka BP and ca. 3.55 cal ka BP, and 0.5–1 km upvalley between 1140 and 1350 A.D. There is also limited evidence based on detrital wood of an additional period of glacier advance ca. 3.24 cal ka BP. This record is more similar to glacier histories further west in British Columbia than elsewhere in the Rockies and provides the first evidence for a post-Hypsithermal glacier advance at ca. 5.26 cal ka BP in the Rockies. The utilization of the wiggle-matching approach using multiple 14C dates from sample locations determined by dendrochronological analyses enabled the recognition of 14C outliers and an increase in the precision and accuracy of the dating of glacier advances.

scholarly journals A simple conceptual model to interpret the 100 000 years dynamics of paleo-climate records

2010 ◽  
Vol 17 (5) ◽  
pp. 585-592 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. S. Quiroga Lombard ◽  
P. Balenzuela ◽  
H. Braun ◽  
D. R. Chialvo
Keyword(s):  
Large Scale ◽  
Power Spectra ◽  
Greenland Ice Sheet ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Solar Cycles ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
De Vries ◽  
Last Ice Age ◽  
Paleoclimate Records ◽  
Dominant Frequencies

Abstract. Spectral analyses performed on records of cosmogenic nuclides reveal a group of dominant spectral components during the Holocene period. Only a few of them are related to known solar cycles, i.e., the De Vries/Suess, Gleissberg and Hallstatt cycles. The origin of the others remains uncertain. On the other hand, time series of North Atlantic atmospheric/sea surface temperatures during the last ice age display the existence of repeated large-scale warming events, called Dansgaard-Oeschger (DO) events, spaced around multiples of 1470 years. The De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles with periods close to 1470/7 (~210) and 1470/17 (~86.5) years have been proposed to explain these observations. In this work we found that a conceptual bistable model forced with the De Vries/Suess and Gleissberg cycles plus noise displays a group of dominant frequencies similar to those obtained in the Fourier spectra from paleo-climate during the Holocene. Moreover, we show that simply changing the noise amplitude in the model we obtain similar power spectra to those corresponding to GISP2 δ18O (Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) during the last ice age. These results give a general dynamical framework which allows us to interpret the main characteristic of paleoclimate records from the last 100 000 years.

scholarly journals Timing of Medieval Fluvial Aggradation at Bremgarten in the Southern Upper Rhine Graben – a Test for Luminescence Dating

2009 ◽  
Vol 57 (3/4) ◽  
pp. 411-432
Author(s):  
Manfred Frechen ◽  
Dietrich Ellwanger ◽  
Daniel Rimkus ◽  
Astrid Techmer
Keyword(s):  
Little Ice Age ◽  
Radiocarbon Dating ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Luminescence Dating ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Upper Rhine Graben ◽  
River Rhine ◽  
Fluvial Sediments ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Short Period

Abstract. The Holocene flood plain of the River Rhine is a complex dynamic sedimentary system. A series of geochronological results for the Bremgarten section including optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) and radiocarbon dating was determined to improve the understanding of part of the Holocene evolution of the River Rhine. The applied single aliquot regenerative (SAR) protocols and the applied experimental studies to find the best luminescence behaviour leave us with confidence that OSL dating is a suitable method for dating fluvial sediments from large river systems. Insufficient bleaching of the sediments from Bremgarten prior to deposition seems to be not as dramatic as previously thought. OSL and radiocarbon dating results give evidence for a short period of major erosion and re-sedimentation of fluvial sediments from the “Tiefgestade” at the Bremgarten section between 500 and 600 years before present. This time period correlates with the beginning of the Little Ice Age at about AD 1450. Several severe floods occurred in Southern Germany between AD 1500 and 1750; all those floods correlate to the period of the Little Ice Age, including the destruction of the village of Neuenburg AD 1525.

scholarly journals Holocene biogeography of Tsuga mertensiana and other conifers in the Kenai Mountains and Prince William Sound, south-central Alaska

The Holocene ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 27 (4) ◽  
pp. 485-495 ◽  
Author(s):  
R Scott Anderson ◽  
Darrell S Kaufman ◽  
Edward Berg ◽  
Caleb Schiff ◽  
Thomas Daigle
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Tsuga Heterophylla ◽  
Picea Sitchensis ◽  
Early Holocene ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Prince William Sound ◽  
Conifer Forest ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
South Central ◽  
Tsuga Mertensiana

Several important North American coastal conifers – having immigrated during the Holocene from the southeast – reach their northern and upper elevation limits in south-central Alaska. However, our understanding of the specific timing of migration has been incomplete. Here, we use two new pollen profiles from a coastal and a high-elevation site in the Eastern Kenai Peninsula–Prince William Sound region, along with other published pollen records, to investigate the Holocene biogeography and development history of the modern coastal Picea (spruce)– Tsuga (hemlock) forest. Tsuga mertensiana became established at Mica Lake (100 m elevation, near Prince William Sound) by 6000 cal. BP and at Goat Lake (550 m elevation in the Kenai Mountains) sometime after 3000 years ago. Tsuga heterophylla was the last major conifer to arrive in the region. Although driven partially by climate change, major vegetation changes during much of the Holocene are difficult to interpret exclusively in terms of climate, with periods of slow migration alternating with more rapid movement. T. mertensiana expanded slowly northeastward in the early Holocene, compared with Picea sitchensis or T. heterophylla. Difficulty of invading an already established conifer forest may account for this. We suggest that during the early Holocene, non-climatic factors as well as proximity to refugia, influenced rates of migration. Climate may have been more important after ~2600 cal. BP. Continued expansion of T. mertensiana at Goat Lake at the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA)–‘Little Ice Age’ (‘LIA’) transition suggests warm and wet winters. But expansion of T. mertensiana at both sites was arrested during the colder climate of the ‘LIA’. The decline was more extensive at Goat Lake, where climatic conditions may have been severe enough to reduce or eliminate the T. mertensiana population. T. mertensiana continued its expansion around Goat Lake after the ‘LIA’.

Greenhouse-gas contribution to Arctic sea-ice loss

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yeon-Hee Kim ◽  
Seung-Ki Min
Keyword(s):  
Sea Ice ◽  
Greenhouse Gas ◽  
Coupled Model ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Detection Analysis ◽  
External Forcings ◽  
Arctic Sea ◽  
Intercomparison Project ◽  
Arctic Sea Ice Loss

<p>Arctic sea-ice area (ASIA) has been declining rapidly throughout the year during recent decades, but a formal quantification of greenhouse gas (GHG) contribution remains limited. This study conducts an attribution analysis of the observed ASIA changes from 1979 to 2017 by comparing three satellite observations with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model simulations using an optimal fingerprint method. The observed ASIA exhibits overall decreasing trends across all months with stronger trends in warm seasons. CMIP6 anthropogenic plus natural forcing (ALL) simulations and GHG-only forcing simulations successfully capture the observed temporal trend patterns. Results from detection analysis show that ALL signals are detected robustly for all calendar months for three observations. It is found that GHG signals are detectable in the observed ASIA decrease throughout the year, explaining most of the ASIA reduction, with a much weaker contribution by other external forcings. We additionally find that the Arctic Ocean will occur ice-free in September around the 2040s regardless of the emission scenario.</p>

A multiproxy reconstruction of vegetation dynamics in the Eastern Alps (Switzerland): combining paleoecological and paleogenetic approaches.

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laura Dziomber ◽  
Lisa Gurtner ◽  
Maria Leunda ◽  
Christoph Schwörer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Ancient Dna ◽  
Vegetation Dynamics ◽  
Population Decline ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Future Climate Change ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Plant Remains ◽  
The Impact

<p>Current and future climate change is a serious threat to biodiversity and ecosystem stability. With a rapid increase of global temperatures by 1.5°C since the pre-industrial period and a projected warming of 1.5-4°C by the end of this century, plant species are forced to either adapt to these changes, shift their distribution range to higher elevation, or face population decline and extinction. Today, there is an urgent need to better understand the responses of mountain vegetation to climate change in order to predict the consequences of the human-driven global change currently occurring during the Anthropocene and maintain species diversity and ecosystem services. However, most predictions are based on short-term experiments. There is, in general, an insufficient use of longer time scales in conservation biology to understand long-term processes. Palaeoecological data are a great source of information to infer past species responses to changing environmental factors, such as climate or anthropogenic disturbances.</p><p>The last climate change of a similar magnitude and rate as projected for this century was the transition between the last Ice Age and the Holocene interglacial (ca. 11,700 years ago). By analyzing subfossil plant remains such as plant macrofossils, charcoal and pollen from natural archives, we can study past responses to climate change. However, until recently it was not possible to reconstruct changes at the population level. With the development of new methods to extract ancient DNA (aDNA) from plant remains and next generation DNA-sequencing techniques, we can now infer past population dynamics by analyzing the genetic variation through time. Ancient DNA might also be able to reveal if species could adapt to climatic changes by identifying intraspecific variation of specific genes related to climatic adaptations.</p><p>We are currently investigating a palaeoecological archive from a high-altitude mountain lake, Lai da Vons (1991 m a.s.l), situated in Eastern Switzerland. We are presenting preliminary macrofossil, pollen and charcoal results to reconstruct local to regional vegetation and fire dynamics with high chronological precision and resolution. In a next step, we will use novel molecular methods, in order to track adaptive and neutral genetic diversity through the Holocene by analyzing aDNA from subfossil conifer needles. The overarching goal of this large-scale, multiproxy study is to better understand past vegetation dynamics and the impact of future climate change on plants at multiple scales; from the genetic to the community level.</p><p> </p>

Quaternary North American Vegetational History: 1.6 Ma to the Present

1999 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan Graham
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
Mississippi River ◽  
Ice Age ◽  
Quaternary Period ◽  
Radiocarbon Dates ◽  
The Holocene ◽  
Oxygen Isotope Stage ◽  
Continental Scale ◽  
Northern Latitudes ◽  
The University

The Quaternary Period encompasses the Pleistocene and the Holocene or Recent Epochs. The date used for the beginning of the Pleistocene depends upon which globally recognizable event is selected as representing a significant break with the preceding Pliocene Epoch. Candidates include the Gauss-Matuyama magnetopolarity boundary (~2.8 Ma; see Quaternary International, 1997); the initiation of widespread permafrost, a frigid Arctic Ocean, and rapid glaciation in the high northern latitudes (~2.4 Ma; Shackleton and Opdyke, 1977; Shackleton et al., 1984); or the African Olduvai paleomagnetic event between 1.87 and 1.67 Ma. The transition from hothouse to icehouse conditions was gradual, but the Pleistocene is typified at Vrica, Italy, as beginning at ~1.67 Ma (Aguirre and Pasini, 1985; Richmond and Fullerton, 1986; oxygen isotope stage 62), and that is the date used here. In the conterminous United States the Elk Creek till of Nebraska is 2.14 m.y. in age (Hallberg, 1986), and the onset of the full ice age is represented by the onset of repeated glaciations at ~850 Kya when glaciers extended down the Mississippi River Valley. Subsequently, glacial-interglacial conditions fluctuated until the latest retreat at ~11 Kya that began the Holocene or Recent Epoch. The chronology of ice age events began with the publication of Louis Agassiz’s (1840) Etudes surles Glaciers. In the absence of evidence to the contrary, a single glacial advance was envisioned as blanketing the high latitudes. In the 1940s Willard E Libby at the University of Chicago perfected the technique of radiocarbon dating, and Flint and Rubin (1955) applied this methodology of “isotopic clocks” to establishing the absolute chronology of drift deposits from the eastern and midwestern United States. Their radiocarbon dates showed evidence of two or more times of continental-scale glaciations; older organic material was “radiocarbon inert” and beyond the ~40-Ky range of the technique. A standard chronology eventually became established for North America that included four major glacial stages (Nebraskan, oldest; Kansan; Illinoian; and Wisconsin) separated by four interglacials (Aftonian, oldest; Yarmouth, Sangamon, and the present Holocene).

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document