Once again—never before—too late: Competing modalities of temporal comparison in German politics (1790–1945)

2021 ◽  
pp. 0961463X2110161
Author(s):  
Willibald Steinmetz

Comparisons across historical times can appear in various shapes. Apart from simple then/now contrasts, three basic modalities may be distinguished: (1) Comparisons that stress similarity and repeatability (“once again”), (2) comparisons that claim absolute novelty, if not incommensurability between present and past (“never before”), and (3) comparisons that suggest a time lag between two entities which, although synchronous in calendar time, appear nonsynchronous in other respects (“too late”/“not yet”/“far ahead”). Relying on a broad range of comparison-performing utterances by leading politicians and observers, this article will assess the conjunctures of those three modalities of temporal comparison in 19th- and 20th-century German politics. Prima facie, one might expect an increase in the use of novelty claims (“never before”) and comparisons of the “too late”-type in that period of frequent upheavals. By contrast, the “once again”-variant should be declining because it builds on the historia magistra vitae topos which, according to Reinhart Koselleck, was dissolved in the post-1789 age of revolution. However, there is abundant evidence to show that historical examples and analogies continued to play a significant role all through the 19th and 20th centuries, whereas allegations of absolute novelty or of being too late remained limited to situations of imminent crisis. Even though the examples presented in this article refer to Germany’s special case, it will be argued that the pattern is typical for Western modernity at large: Modern political rhetoric and action are characterized not by one dominant regime, but a copresence of all three—competing—modalities of temporal comparison.

2004 ◽  
Vol 14 (09) ◽  
pp. 2999-3021 ◽  
Author(s):  
CHRISTOPHER T. H. BAKER ◽  
JUDITH M. FORD ◽  
NEVILLE J. FORD

We consider stochastic delay differential equations of the form [Formula: see text] interpreted in the Itô sense, with Y(t)=Φ(t) for t∈[t0-τ,t0] (here, W(t) is a standard Wiener process and τ>0 is the constant "lag", or "time-lag"). We are interested in bifurcations (that is, changes in the qualitative behavior of solutions of these equations) and we draw on insights from the related deterministic delay differential equation, for which there is a substantial body of known theory, and numerical results that enable us to discuss where changes occur in the behavior of the (exact and approximate) solutions of the equation. Rather diverse components of mathematical background are necessary to understand the questions of interest. In this paper we first review some deterministic results and some basic elements of the stochastic analysis that (i) suggests lines of investigation for the stochastic case and (ii) are expected to facilitate the theoretical investigation of the stochastic problem. We then present the results of numerical experiments that illustrate some of the complexities that arise when considering bifurcations in stochastic delay differential equations. They give prima facie evidence for certain convergence properties of the bifurcation points estimated using the Euler–Maruyama method for the equations considered. We conclude by drawing attention to a number of open questions in the field.


On the basis of the expressions obtained in parts I and II of this series for the distribution of temperature in the steady state along a filament electrically heated in vacuo , the growth of temperature accompanying a small increase in the heating current is investigated in the present part. Over a considerable region about the centre of the filament, which is the region of practical interest, it is found that to a close approximation the growth of temperature can be completely represented by a simple exponential law involving a single relaxation time, whose magnitude is readily calculated. This method of investigating the time lag, which is general and applicable to any filament, is compared with the well-known method of Fourier expansion developed by Straneo for the special case where the temperature everywhere in the filament is only slightly higher than the room temperature, and hence the loss by radiation conforms to Newton’s law of cooling. Each of the Fourier terms is assigned in his method a separate relaxation time that will make the term separately satisfy the differential equation and the boundary conditions. In principle the Fourier method also should be applicable to any filament. But the actual temperature distribution is in general too complicated for an analytical Fourier expansion. In the special case treated by Straneo the temperature distribution over practically the whole length of the filament is parabolic. The actual distribution near the centre of any filament is also known to be parabolic. Hence a comparison of the results obtained by the two methods in the above special case suggests a convenient adaptation of the Fourier method also to the calculation of the time lag near the centre of any filament. The adaptation lies essentially in the use of a certain effective length to determine the period of the Fourier expansion, instead of the actual length generally used. The magnitude of this length is obtained from the results of the present investigation. The distinction between the two lengths is not significant in the special case treated by Straneo, but it is in other cases. Though the occurrence of a single effective relaxation time is not directly obvious from the Fourier expansion, it is shown to follow from it as a close approximation. This result is convenient for practical application. For a given central temperature the relaxation time is found to vary inversely as the ratio of the surface to the volume, and is therefore smaller for a ribbon filament than for one of circular cross-section, as observed by Prescott & Morrison. For a given central temperature and length, the ribbon filament is found to approximate closer than one of circular section, to an infinitely long one. The variation of the relaxation time near the centre with the length of the filament is investigated in some detail.


2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdullah Khamis Alzahrani ◽  
Oyoon Abdul Razzaq ◽  
Najeeb Alam Khan ◽  
Ali Saleh Alshomrani ◽  
Malik Zaka Ullah

AbstractEpidemiological models have been playing a vital role in different areas of biological sciences for the analysis of various contagious diseases. Transmissibility of virulent diseases is being portrayed in the literature through different compartments such as susceptible, infected, recovered (SIR), susceptible, infected, recovered, susceptible (SIRS) or susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered (SEIR), etc. The novelty in this endeavor is the addition of compartments of latency and treatment with vaccination, so the system is designated as susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, latent, infected, treatment, and recovered (SVELITR). The contact of a susceptible individual to an infective individual firstly makes the individual exposed, latent, and then completely infection carrier. Innovatively, the assumption that exposed, latent, and infected individuals enter the treatment compartment at different rates after a time lag is also deliberated through the existence of time delay. The rate of change and constant solutions of each compartment are studied with incorporation of a special case of proportional fractional derivative (PFD). In addition, existence and uniqueness of the system are also comprehensively elaborated. Moreover, novel dynamic assessment of the system is carried out in context with the fractional order index. Succinctly, the manuscript accomplishes cyclic epidemiological behavior of the infectious disease due to the delay in treatment of the infected individuals.


1974 ◽  
Vol 41 (4) ◽  
pp. 867-872 ◽  
Author(s):  
W. W. Mullins

The steady-state (ss) stochastic theory of convergent, cohesionless particle flow under gravity toward an orifice in the floor of a semi-infinite bed, based on the statistics of random flight and assuming instantaneous propagation of flow disturbances throughout the bed, is extended to nonsteady-state flow and time lag effects. The new theory, of which the ss theory is a special case, assumes flow to be restricted to an expanding zone, surmounting the orifice (opened at t = 0), of particle density ρss, separated from the rest of the bed of the original particle density ρ0 = ρss + Δρ (Δρ > 0) by a boundary whose elements advance with a velocity vn = −(1/Δρ)Jn where Jn is the normal component of the particle flux on the inside of the boundary due to flow (assumed to be ss) within the zone. Detailed equations describing the flow zone boundary as a function of time and the flow within the zone are developed; the equations depend on two material parameters (Δρ/ρss, and α of ss theory) and on the quantity of material drained out. Corrections are derived for the analysis of the z2 and z3/2 plots of layer data previously made on the basis of the ss theory. A comparison of the new predictions with one piece of flow data shows the theory capable of accounting for lag effects and for details of the flow pattern in that case. Values of Δρ/ρss and α are deduced, the latter being the order of the particle size in conformity to the expectations of the statistical theory.


1982 ◽  
Vol 123 ◽  
pp. 267-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jakob J. Keller

In §1 a brief discussion of the general problem of self-excited acoustic oscillations within fixed boundaries is given. I n §2 a second-order analysis is developed for the special case of rectangular cavities. A nonlinear wave equation is derived for essentially arbitrary boundary conditions. The analysis can be extended to other cavity geometries provided that the first-order solutions can be expressed in closed form. Various applications of the analysis are discussed in §3. It turns out that two-dimensional problems of self-excited oscillations generally lead to nonlinear equations containing terms with a time lag. It is anticipated that the time lag (rather than viscous effects or sound radiation) represents the key to a fundamental understanding of the character of the oscillations and the variety of modes appearing in self-excited resonators.


2018 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel Crimston ◽  
Matthew J. Hornsey

AbstractAs a general theory of extreme self-sacrifice, Whitehouse's article misses one relevant dimension: people's willingness to fight and die in support of entities not bound by biological markers or ancestral kinship (allyship). We discuss research on moral expansiveness, which highlights individuals’ capacity to self-sacrifice for targets that lie outside traditional in-group markers, including racial out-groups, animals, and the natural environment.


Author(s):  
Dr. G. Kaemof

A mixture of polycarbonate (PC) and styrene-acrylonitrile-copolymer (SAN) represents a very good example for the efficiency of electron microscopic investigations concerning the determination of optimum production procedures for high grade product properties.The following parameters have been varied:components of charge (PC : SAN 50 : 50, 60 : 40, 70 : 30), kind of compounding machine (single screw extruder, twin screw extruder, discontinuous kneader), mass-temperature (lowest and highest possible temperature).The transmission electron microscopic investigations (TEM) were carried out on ultra thin sections, the PC-phase of which was selectively etched by triethylamine.The phase transition (matrix to disperse phase) does not occur - as might be expected - at a PC to SAN ratio of 50 : 50, but at a ratio of 65 : 35. Our results show that the matrix is preferably formed by the components with the lower melting viscosity (in this special case SAN), even at concentrations of less than 50 %.


2019 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 177-185
Author(s):  
Daniela Moza ◽  
Laurențiu Maricuțoiu ◽  
Alin Gavreliuc

Abstract. Previous research established that an independent construal of the self is associated with higher self-esteem, which, in turn, is associated with increased happiness. Regarding the directionality of these relationships, theoretical arguments have suggested that self-construal precedes self-esteem and that self-esteem precedes happiness. However, most research in this area is cross-sectional, thus limiting any conclusions about directionality. The present study tested these relationships in 101 Romanian undergraduates using a 3-wave cross-lagged design with a 6-month time lag between every two waves. Structural equation modeling analyses revealed that self-esteem is an antecedent of both happiness and dimensions of independent self-construal (i.e., consistency vs. variability and self-expression vs. harmony). In other words, one’s positive evaluation of self-worth precedes one’s self-perception as being a happy and independent person. The findings are discussed with respect to the theoretical and practical implications, along with limitations and suggestions for future research.


2016 ◽  
Vol 32 (3) ◽  
pp. 204-214 ◽  
Author(s):  
Emilie Lacot ◽  
Mohammad H. Afzali ◽  
Stéphane Vautier

Abstract. Test validation based on usual statistical analyses is paradoxical, as, from a falsificationist perspective, they do not test that test data are ordinal measurements, and, from the ethical perspective, they do not justify the use of test scores. This paper (i) proposes some basic definitions, where measurement is a special case of scientific explanation; starting from the examples of memory accuracy and suicidality as scored by two widely used clinical tests/questionnaires. Moreover, it shows (ii) how to elicit the logic of the observable test events underlying the test scores, and (iii) how the measurability of the target theoretical quantities – memory accuracy and suicidality – can and should be tested at the respondent scale as opposed to the scale of aggregates of respondents. (iv) Criterion-related validity is revisited to stress that invoking the explanative power of test data should draw attention on counterexamples instead of statistical summarization. (v) Finally, it is argued that the justification of the use of test scores in specific settings should be part of the test validation task, because, as tests specialists, psychologists are responsible for proposing their tests for social uses.


2014 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 87-96 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xi-Chao Zhang ◽  
Oi Ling Siu ◽  
Jing Hu ◽  
Weiwei Zhang

This study investigated the direct, reversed, and reciprocal relationships between bidirectional work-family conflict/work-family facilitation and psychological well-being (PWB). We administered a three-wave questionnaire survey to 260 married Chinese employees using a time lag of one month. Cross-lagged structural equation modeling analysis was conducted and demonstrated that the direct model was better than the reversed causal or the reciprocal model. Specifically, work-to-family conflict at Time 1 negatively predicted PWB at Time 2, and work-to-family conflict at Time 2 negatively predicted PWB at Time 3; further, work-to-family facilitation at Time 1 positively predicted PWB at Time 2. In addition, family-to-work facilitation at Time 1 positively predicted PWB at Time 2, and family-to-work conflict at Time 2 negatively predicted PWB at Time 3.


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